Arlene Foster and the RHI scandal

FrancieBrady

munsterlegend wrote: »

While both the UUP and SDLP are not as hardcore on the constitutional issue, I would foresee any such merger as premature. It is still a major dividing line and the alliance party are proof as to how difficulty it is to prosper in the neutral position. People would continue to vote in fear for the DUP/SF and maybe even in greater numbers. Unionism is worried given the tories care about England and no where else. Maybe Scotland to some extent as it has some value.

I agree, I think the stars have some aligning to do yet before Jayop's scenario could happen.

Personally, I think a change of government might be a good thing in NI, for change sake. People should be shown that there is a possibility of doing things differently.
While I welcome the UUP's move to a more moderate engagement I don't think the leopard has fully changed it's spots. But they are well able to co-govern, as are the SDLP and the Alliance.

Jayop

Ach now it's pie in the sky stuff but I just thought it was an interesting hypothesis. In an ideal world it would be governed on policies more than green or orange as the main campaign issue. The campaign the DUP are running now is as negative as you could imagine. Vote for us or SF, not that it matters which Unionist party you vote for because it'll have no determination on whether SF get returned or not.

FrancieBrady

Jayop wrote: »

Ach now it's pie in the sky stuff but I just thought it was an interesting hypothesis. In an ideal world it would be governed on policies more than green or orange as the main campaign issue. The campaign the DUP are running now is as negative as you could imagine. Vote for us or SF, not that it matters which Unionist party you vote for because it'll have no determination on whether SF get returned or not.

My only hope for this election is that Arlene's career is ended, in my opinion, she is more toxic in her short term than Robinson before her.
Only by that happening, and happening again and again if the DUP install toxic, old style Unionist bigot leaders, will we see any change.

Jayop

Nah she won't be gone unless they get decimated. She's going to be reelected for sure.

Also, looking at the tweets from some of their young candidates they don't seem any less dinosaurs. Their only issue that they seem to be campaigning on is themmuns.

FrancieBrady

Jayop wrote: »

Nah she won't be gone unless they get decimated. She's going to be reelected for sure.

Also, looking at the tweets from some of their young candidates they don't seem any less dinosaurs. Their only issue that they seem to be campaigning on is themmuns.

Depends on her own vote and the overall DUP performance.
It's what happens after that will be interesting.

Stars and Stripes

Jayop wrote: »

Ach now it's pie in the sky stuff but I just thought it was an interesting hypothesis. In an ideal world it would be governed on policies more than green or orange as the main campaign issue. The campaign the DUP are running now is as negative as you could imagine. Vote for us or SF, not that it matters which Unionist party you vote for because it'll have no determination on whether SF get returned or not.

I can see SF's vote dropping slightly, they have made a mess of there involvement and been shown up to be too appeasing to the DUP. Michelle O'Neill may give them a bounce but I think a lot of people must be fed up of their poor performance. And down here they are largely stagnant with Adams as leader even if the present Dail govt falls.

Jayop

Stars and Stripes wrote: »

I can see SF's vote dropping slightly, they have made a mess of there involvement and been shown up to be too appeasing to the DUP. Michelle O'Neill may give them a bounce but I think a lot of people must be fed up of their poor performance. And down here they are largely stagnant with Adams as leader even if the present Dail govt falls.

Grown exponentially every year since Adams came to the Dail. Another myth debunked.

And how did they appease the DUP by bringing down the government? That's a new one.

FrancieBrady

I think SF could lose some votes too. Simply because they are a government party.
Brexit will re-energise the norths politics though. I think they have picked a new leader at the right time.

Mr.Nice Guy

I think the results will be quite similar to the previous election. I believe a lot of voters will stay at home and I think that's going to hurt nationalist parties more than unionists. Seems to be massive apathy towards politicians.

DUP voters seem to care most about keeping SF from being the largest party rather than having accountable politicians representing them. This election will show that little has changed over the RHI scandal. I really hope I'm wrong but I doubt it.

FrancieBrady

Last night's Nolan debate would not give you any hope of 'change' ending with a belligerent shouting match with an almost postal DUP audience member trying to shout down an appeal for an Irish language act (which Scotland and Wales have for their indigenous languages).
It soon descended into NEVER NEVER NEVERland with the DUP making the ridiculous point that if they gave way on this request they would have to give way on every single other request and attempting to drag the conversation back into one about the conflict/war.

FrancieBrady

Shocks continue in a shocking story.

https://audioboom.com/posts/5613660-breaking-news-the-nolan-show-has-the-full-list-of-successful-applicants-to-the-rhi-scheme-nolanrhi

A Little Pony

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I think the results will be quite similar to the previous election. I believe a lot of voters will stay at home and I think that's going to hurt nationalist parties more than unionists. Seems to be massive apathy towards politicians.

DUP voters seem to care most about keeping SF from being the largest party rather than having accountable politicians representing them. This election will show that little has changed over the RHI scandal. I really hope I'm wrong but I doubt it.

I think DUP will increase the seats they get.Simply because of Mike Nesbitt comments. I think the opposite is going to happen, Sinn Fein will probably lose the odd seat. If the Irish language act wasn't brought up and focused solely on the RHI debacle, then maybe the DUP would have lost a few seats.

FrancieBrady

A Little Pony wrote: »

I think DUP will increase the seats they get.Simply because of Mike Nesbitt comments. I think the opposite is going to happen, Sinn Fein will probably lose the odd seat. If the Irish language act wasn't brought up and focused solely on the RHI debacle, then maybe the DUP would have lost a few seats.

The release of the RHI details will bring the focus back on it very quickly I suspect.
Not only does it look like a massive giveaway of public money, it now looks like their was very healthy fraud going on too.

Jayop

A Little Pony wrote: »

I think DUP will increase the seats they get.Simply because of Mike Nesbitt comments. I think the opposite is going to happen, Sinn Fein will probably lose the odd seat. If the Irish language act wasn't brought up and focused solely on the RHI debacle, then maybe the DUP would have lost a few seats.

One thinks the heart is ruling the head there.

A Little Pony

Jayop wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

I think DUP will increase the seats they get.Simply because of Mike Nesbitt comments. I think the opposite is going to happen, Sinn Fein will probably lose the odd seat. If the Irish language act wasn't brought up and focused solely on the RHI debacle, then maybe the DUP would have lost a few seats.

One thinks the heart is ruling the head there.

Im not voting, so doesn't bother me. I know the DUP will win the election. Regarding RHI, of course it is dodgy but I don't see a dodgy boiler scheme making much difference. The election imo has come too early for UUP and SDLP.

Seth Brundle

A Little Pony wrote: »

Im not voting, so doesn't bother me. I know the DUP will win the election. Regarding RHI, of course it is dodgy but I don't see a dodgy boiler scheme making much difference. The election imo has come too early for UUP and SDLP.

If You don't vote then you will have no right to complain about who does eventually get elected.

blanch152

Jayop wrote: »

Unionists are funny, especially those who post on here. In one post they tell you that nationalists don't want a UI and so many of them now identify as British, on the other hand they're terrified of a border poll. Why would you be so afraid of something you seem so utterly convinced would fail?? It's strange in the extreme.

I think 60% would be far too big a number. I honestly don't see why 51% in a series of polls shouldn't trigger a vote.

To secure such a change, a simple majority just isn't enough to secure the necessary widespread support. Look at the way the small majority in favour of Brexit is convulsing the UK.

No, to ensure a united Ireland can be a success, you would need 60% to be supporting it.

FrancieBrady

kbannon wrote: »

If You don't vote then you will have no right to complain about who does eventually get elected.

Effectively, it is a vote for the winners. Pretty pointless all those who died to ensure he had a vote too.
I personally would favour a spell in jail for those who can't be bothered voting.

A Little Pony

FrancieBrady wrote: »

kbannon wrote: »

If You don't vote then you will have no right to complain about who does eventually get elected.

Effectively, it is a vote for the winners. Pretty pointless all those who died to ensure he had a vote too.
I personally would favour a spell in jail for those who can't be bothered voting.

lol. If I had to vote, it would be Unionist. DUP winning doesn't bother me that much even if the leader isn't great.

Jayop

blanch152 wrote: »

To secure such a change, a simple majority just isn't enough to secure the necessary widespread support. Look at the way the small majority in favour of Brexit is convulsing the UK.

No, to ensure a united Ireland can be a success, you would need 60% to be supporting it.

Fortunately for democracy then that the Gfa has allowed for nothing more than a simple majority.

Mr.Nice Guy

I saw a few news outlets today covering a survey by the Electoral Reform Society that shows how entrenched the tribal politics are. They used data from more than 4,000 voters questioned after the last election and found that only 4% of Catholics would give their first vote to a unionist party, and only 2% of Protestants would give a first vote to a nationalist party. Also, out of all preferences by Catholics, only 8% go to unionist parties; out of all preferences by Protestants, only 6% go to nationalist parties.

That suggests to me not only is their little prospect for a 'new type' of politics, but that there won't be any change for several decades.

Jayop

They won't vote for a Unionist or nationalist party but there is scope for a new Alliance type party imo.

FrancieBrady

The interesting stuff happens if Arlene is still the leader. Will SF go into an executive with them?
What do the two governments do then.

RicePat

Anyone see the Leaders' Debate last night? Nobody really stood out but arlene was particularly woeful. Her total contempt for the public was made plain when she told outright lies about the whole RHI thing.

Jayop

Will still be the biggest party sadly. Sdlp and uup left it too late to make a pact of sorts.

RicePat

Jayop wrote: »

Will still be the biggest party sadly. Sdlp and uup left it too late to make a pact of sorts.

I dont doubt it, which will, frankly, be a terrible indictment of the unionist community in the north.

Doubt a pact could have saved either of them though, particularly not the SDLP. Their biggest problem is that, as a party, they dont even know what they stand for any more. They are split on numerous issues, hold almost counteracting party policies (where they have policies to speak of) and are notorious for flip flopping on any even semi controversial issue.

FrancieBrady

Latest poll I think:


DUP 26.3% (-2.9% v 2016)
SF 25.3% (+1.2%)
UUP 13.9% (+1.2%)
SDLP 12.2% (+0.2%)
Alliance 9.5% (+2.5%)
TUV 4.4% (+1%)
Green 3.4% (+1%)
PBP 2.4% (+0.4)


Unfortunately I don't think this is gonna be a suprise in a Brexit or Trump way.

It will all come down to the size of Arlene's endorsement and how arrogant that allows her and the DUP to be.

RicePat

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Latest poll I think:


DUP 26.3% (-2.9% v 2016)
SF 25.3% (+1.2%)
UUP 13.9% (+1.2%)
SDLP 12.2% (+0.2%)
Alliance 9.5% (+2.5%)
TUV 4.4% (+1%)
Green 3.4% (+1%)
PBP 2.4% (+0.4)


Unfortunately I don't think this is gonna be a suprise in a Brexit or Trump way.

It will all come down to the size of Arlene's endorsement and how arrogant that allows her and the DUP to be.

Even were SF slightly ahead in terms of percentage, it probably still wouldnt get them ahead of the DUP in terms of seats.
I always take these polls with a pinch of salt but less than a 3% drop for the DUP given the stunts they have been pulling over the past number of years shows just how well their "project fear" sectarianising policy is playing with certain sections. Hugely disheartening.

A Little Pony

RicePat wrote: »

Jayop wrote: »

Will still be the biggest party sadly. Sdlp and uup left it too late to make a pact of sorts.

I dont doubt it, which will, frankly, be a terrible indictment of the unionist community in the north.

Doubt a pact could have saved either of them though, particularly not the SDLP. Their biggest problem is that, as a party, they dont even know what they stand for any more. They are split on numerous issues, hold almost counteracting party policies (where they have policies to speak of) and are notorious for flip flopping on any even semi controversial issue.

Many of us aren't fans of the DUP within the Unionist community but Sinn Fein are a nightmare. So we stick together, we have been doing that for hundreds of years as a people.

RicePat

A Little Pony wrote: »

Many of us aren't fans of the DUP within the Unionist community but Sinn Fein are a nightmare. So we stick together, we have been doing that for hundreds of years as a people.

Yeah, bloody nightmare, with their gay rights and leprechaun language. What next? Equality for women? Or Muslims?!? AHHHH

This is exactly the sort of tribalistic attitude that prevents the north from progressing beyond orange and green politics.