Minimum alcohol pricing is nigh

Gusser09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120388607#Comment_120388607

None of these reports are though. That's my point. The really don't take into account other factors which may contribute to the rise or fall in deaths. That's a fact. They are skewed.

dxhound2005

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120388615#Comment_120388615

One of the files is 85 pages. Did you read it all? They address the question of what can be attributed to alcohol, and what is other factors. (it doesn't paste very well).

https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/publications/evaluating-the-impact-of-alcohol-minimum-unit-pricing-mup-on-alcohol-attributable-deaths-and-hospital-admissions-in-scotland/

Outcomes wholly attributable to alcohol consumption did not require any further adjustments: by definition, they are all caused by alcohol consumption. However, outcomes partially attributable to alcohol consumption required scaling based on the extent of their attributability to alcohol consumption. Partially attributable health outcomes are a hypothetical estimate of the impact of alcohol consumption on health harms based on the scenario of risk minimisation on the relationship between alcohol consumption and health harms. This relationship is based on systematic reviews and meta-analyses of an extensive literature that has examined the association between different levels of alcohol consumption and a range of health outcomes. 15 We modelled alcohol-attributable fractions (AAFs) for each health outcome partially attributable to alcohol consumption using the online interface of the International Model of Alcohol Harms and Policies (InterMAHP, version 3.0). 27 AAF analyses were undertaken at the level of each calendar year and population sub-group (country, sex, age group) to estimate AAFs and subsequently, deaths and hospital admissions partially attributable to alcohol consumption. InterMAHP model parameters were defined in line with national guidance, with binge drinking definitions set at 8 units per day for males and 6 units per day for females.28 The theoretical upper limit of average daily consumption was defined as the InterMAHP default value of 18.75 units. Our study used relative risks for alcoholattributable health harms from the WHO 2018 Global Status Report on Alcohol and Health.29 Due to our choice of relative risk set, our study assumed more conservative cardioprotective effects than have been recently published.30,31 Regardless of recent estimates, there remain differing views on the extent of protective effects of alcohol.32,33 We did not consider COVID-19 health harms to be partially attributable to alcohol consumption, although we acknowledge a case could be made that COVID-19 outcomes could be causally linked to alcohol consumption through direct and indirect routes.34 Our rationale for exclusion was that, due to the novel nature of COVID-19, we found no meta-analyses of relative risks available to enable us to develop specific AAFs. The number of deaths and hospital admissions partially attributable to alcohol consumption were estimated by multiplying the number of each outcome (deaths and hospital admissions) by the relevant AAF. Not all health outcomes partially attributable to alcohol consumption had separate AAFs for morbidity. Where fractions were available for both mortality and morbidity, the relevant fraction was used. In the case that only the mortality fraction was available, it was applied to the count of hospital admissions. Further information on the data inputs, and approach to estimating AAFs, can be found in Appendix 2 and in our pre-published pre-specific statistical analysis plan.14

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120388544#Comment_120388544

Not if you walk around Dublin any night of the week. Pubs are packed and more opening.

It is the point if you want people to oppose MUP. An average pub goer does not see MUP as expensive.

I do feel sorry for those moderate drinkers on low incomes who are affected by it, but I still dont see any broad opposition to it, unless the price point significantly increased.

I can still buy a 4 pack for the price of a pint. And if plenty of people are still buying pints (and they are) you can see how MUP fades into the background as a non issue for many.

Gusser09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120388644#Comment_120388644

"The research was observational, so cannot prove conclusively that the significant fall in deaths was due to the minimum unit pricing policy."

Is the drop in deaths related to MUP though? Can we conclusively say that. No.

dxhound2005

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120388675#Comment_120388675

What did you think of this part when you read it?

2.2. Outcome measures All outcome measures were defined using codes from the tenth revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10) applied to deaths and hospital admissions data.16 Outcome measures were firstly defined at the level of individual health conditions and then aggregated into pre-specified wholly, or partially, attributable outcome measures. 11 Wholly attributable health outcomes are those where the health harm outcome was entirely attributable to alcohol consumption (for example, alcoholic liver disease). Partially attributable health outcomes are those where only a proportion of the population-level outcome was deemed to be due to alcohol consumption (for example, liver cirrhosis). A list of the ICD-10 codes used to classify health outcomes wholly and partially attributable to alcohol consumption are outlined in Appendix 1. Study outcomes were assessed using a primary definition for wholly attributable outcomes, and a secondary definition for partially attributable harms, as outlined below: • Primary definition: underlying cause of death (or main hospital admission diagnosis) was wholly attributable to alcohol consumption. • Secondary definition: underlying cause of death (or main hospital admissions diagnosis) was partially attributable to alcohol consumption. Additionally, partially attributable injuries were further defined using external cause codes in any secondary hospital admissions diagnoses, as they cannot be defined in the main diagnosis position. All study outcomes are outlined in Table 1 and are reported separately for wholly and partially attributable outcomes. Outcomes were assessed separately for deaths and hospital admissions. Each outcome was defined on a month-by-month basis over the full study period. If a patient had more than one alcohol-attributable hospital admission in a monthly period, the attributes of the earliest admission were selected.

Gusser09

You're conflating the issue.

We have no proof that alcohol is being consumed at lower levels because of MUP.

Show me the alcohol off sales for the period and lets see if they are down on pre mup levels.

dxhound2005

There is a separate 112 page report on that.

https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/publications/evaluating-the-impact-of-minimum-unit-pricing-mup-on-sales-based-alcohol-consumption-in-scotland-at-three-years-post-implementation

Three full years after implementation, the impact of MUP was a net reduction of 3.0% (−4.2% to −1.8%) in the total volume of pure alcohol sold per adult in Scotland, when using a method that accounts for sales in England & Wales (best available geographical control) and after adjustment for other potentially confounding factors.

This reflects a 1.1% fall in Scotland in contrast to a 2.4% increase in England & Wales. • The reduction in total alcohol sales was driven by a 3.6% (−4.8% to −2.5%) reduction in sales of alcohol through the off-trade. We found no evidence to suggest that MUP caused any changes in per-adult sales of alcohol through the on-trade

Gusser09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120388973#Comment_120388973

So a minimal reduction.

dxhound2005

I read that there was a bigger reduction in the categories of drinks which MUP targeted. And a positive health outcome for the consumers of those drinks. Spending on the high end products increased, affecting the average. A £50 bottle of wine is not going to do as much harm as 50 cans of cider.

Scottish cider sales fall 18.6% in the year following Minimum Unit Pricing. Sales of cider per adult fell by 18.6% in the full year following the introduction of Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) in Scotland, according to new data released by NHS Health Scotland. (January 2020).

dxhound2005

No more loyalty card deals and points on alcohol purchases in the North. From 06 April 2023.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-65173354

Jeremy Sproket

My neighbour is having a 21st birthday. He will be inviting several guests to his house for a piss up (including me :P ). I rarely drink, maybe an occasional Guinness or two so I won't be part-taking in the "festivities".

He is planning on purchasing 10 slabs of cans (10 slabs x 24 cans x 500 ml) plus 10 bottles of wine.

This will cost over €500 to buy in ROI.

We live in NCD, so we're 1 hour(ish) to the border. He is going to go to Newry and buy it all up there, he'll save a whack.

rob316

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120389302#Comment_120389302

In my experience people have no problem paying for alcohol no matter that's an alcoholic, regular drinker or occasional drinker.

MUP is pointless it should be scrapped and it's only adding to inflation. Is alcohol necessary? No but neither is ice cream, biscuits or chocolate.

What I have found since it's been introduced is I drink little beer at home but more wine and spirits. Something in my head stops me from drinking the beer that used to be 1e a bottle is now 2e bottle, I can't enjoy it as much I feel ripped off.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120449220#Comment_120449220

I think youre in the minority there if you feel 2 euro is pricey for a beer when people pay 7 euro for a pint.

But youre as entitled as anyone to consider what "expensive" means to you.

Its all rather abstract, really.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120449180#Comment_120449180

Yep. Kind of makes sense if youre on a budget and its a big blow out like that.

Cant reay blame your neighbour there, though Mr Ryan of the Green Party may urge him to think of the CO2 emissions generated from his booze cruise :)

elperello

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120449252#Comment_120449252

I don't consider it abstract at all.

If a beer was €1 and now is €2 that is all too real.

What it costs in the pub is irrelevant to the home drinker because by definition they are not drinking in the pub.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120449279#Comment_120449279

I see your point. But 2 euro is still not fundamentally expensive for a beer.

Its 200% the price it was previously. But that doesnt make it expensive. Since expensive is an abstract concept.

To a home drinker it may be considered expensive.

To a pub regular, its probably considered dirt cheap.

elperello

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120449311#Comment_120449311

The whole concept of MUP is to make beer more expensive by introducing a false floor to the market.

By any standard €2 for something that was selling 16 months ago for €1 is expensive.

The off trade and the on trade are two different businesses.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120449327#Comment_120449327

But if it was underpriced to begin with, it may now just be at a moderated price.

As I said, expensive is an abstract concept.

I cannot look at a 2 euro beer and think of it as being expensive.

A can of coke in Supervalu costs 1.50 :)

elperello

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120449393#Comment_120449393

It was selling at the market price before MUP ie what a retailer was willing to sell it at and customers were willing to pay.

MUP has not "moderated" the price it has artificially inflated it.

I can't look at a 2 euro beer that used to be €1 without thinking it is expensive.

I don't drink coke.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120449420#Comment_120449420

There you have it.

Proof that expensive is just abstract.

I think 2 euro a beer is cheap, you think it is expensive.

Neither of us is definitivley right.

But as long as people keep buying beer at 2 euro, retailers have a new market rate at which to charge.

I dont think that new rate is prohibitive or impacting sales. Therefore, you could reasonably argue that the product was under priced in the first place.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120449420#Comment_120449420

And if youre that worried about the price, maybe you should drink coke.

Its cheaper than 2 euro.

dxhound2005

I think it is worthwhile to go back to the discussion from before I posted about the loyalty cards. The research in Scotland to say that MUP is achieving a reduction in sales of the categories it set out to target.

"I read that there was a bigger reduction in the categories of drinks which MUP targeted. And a positive health outcome for the consumers of those drinks. Spending on the high end products increased, affecting the average. A £50 bottle of wine is not going to do as much harm as 50 cans of cider.

Scottish cider sales fall 18.6% in the year following Minimum Unit Pricing. Sales of cider per adult fell by 18.6% in the full year following the introduction of Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) in Scotland, according to new data released by NHS Health Scotland. (January 2020)."

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120449513#Comment_120449513

Thats interesting.

It seems to be having the desired effect.

At least as far as cheap cider is concerned.

I wonder if there is a pull effect towards other drinks?

Do the people not buying cheap cider anymore buy something else? Or do they avoid alcohol altogether.

dxhound2005

You could have a read through the discussion. But better again read the research. If you have a couple of days free.

https://www.healthscotland.scot/health-topics/alcohol/evaluation-of-minimum-unit-pricing-mup/overview-of-evaluation-of-mup/why-we-are-evaluating-mup

elperello

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120449498#Comment_120449498

It's not what I think it is reality.

Two items both the same one is €2 the other is €1.

The €2 one is expensive.

There is no market price any more, retailers are forbidden by law to sell as cheap as they want.

elperello

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120449501#Comment_120449501

Don't be silly 🙂

I like the taste of beer and I don't like the taste of coke :🙂

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120449607#Comment_120449607

Its your reality. Its not mine.

If i buy a beer in a beer shop it generally costs 3 or 4 euro but its an import. I dont buy them very often.

Your 1 euro beer doesnt exist anymore. It now costs 2 euro. You said so yourself. So theres no competition there.

compared to my 4 euro import, your 2 euro beer is cheap.

its all relative :) Expensive is abstract.

There is a price floor. Its 2 euro.

But if people are still buying the same 2 euro beer, or even a more expensive beer, then the 1 euro beer was under priced.

elperello

Your 3 or 4 euro beer is the same price as before MUP.

My 2 euro beer is twice the price it was before MUP.

(actually the new price floor for 4.3% standard beer ie. Heineken, Carlsberg etc. is about €1.70 per can but we are just using the 1 and 2 figures as examples).

There is no such thing as under priced beer the correct term is booze bargain.

dubrov

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120449654#Comment_120449654

That's not true. The market set the price so it was fair. Now regulation is setting the office at an artificial level.

If a regulator decided to double the price of chicken tomorrow, people would still buy it (albeit less). Doesn't mean it's a fair price

dxhound2005

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120450444#Comment_120450444

And the anti MUP argument was to increase taxation instead of giving the alcohol shops a guaranteed extra profit. But the legislators took on board the way the alcohol shops behaved in doing very low price promotions. And the health advice was that MUP should target that end of the market.

Their conclusion was that the alcohol shops would find ways to continue doing promotions. Unless there is an actual MUP which no retailer can legally undersell.