Milk Price III

Signpost

cute geoge wrote: »

Kerry plc up 1.5 cent for july
That it there for ye now

Where did you see that?

Farmer Ed

cute geoge wrote: »

Kerry plc up 1.5 cent for july
That it there for ye now

That is news. The script was pointing to the increase being 1 cent all round.

whelan2

cute geoge wrote: »

Kerry plc up 1.5 cent for july
That it there for ye now

What are they at now?

Buford T. Justice XIX

Signpost wrote: »

Where did you see that?

https://twitter.com/FJDairy/status/897105194755948544

Buford T. Justice XIX

http://www.farmersjournal.ie/dairy-markets-futures-markets-quiet-as-new-zealand-wmp-sales-ramp-up-300700

Slight rise in GDT forecast for tomorrow as NZ increases WMP production

George Sunsnow

I can only speak as a Glanbia supplier,who incidentally make most of the Kerry gold butter for export ,but if I was sending in a million litres to them and had the misfortune to have most of it in fixed schemes this year,I wouldn't be a happy camper

Every 1c average on the entire supply is ten grand lost
Some lads have stuff fixed sub 30c

It's hard to quantify how much fixed lads are losing this year compared to the thankfully 60% who stayed out of those,and it is still a loss even if solids bring them up to 34 or 35 because they are still losing that base rise,the solids payment they'd have either way

4c average on a supplier like that is €40,000 Euro lost

I know people do like to hedge for volatility and all but I do it by putting some of that €40k aside now
I think it's perilous to leave that function in the hands of a corporate entity whose prime motive is to make profit from getting your milk for as little as possible

mahoney_j

George Sunsnow wrote: »

I can only speak as a Glanbia supplier,who incidentally make most of the Kerry gold butter for export ,but if I was sending in a million litres to them and had the misfortune to have most of it in fixed schemes this year,I wouldn't be a happy camper

Every 1c average on the entire supply is ten grand lost
Some lads have stuff fixed sub 30c

It's hard to quantify how much fixed lads are losing this year compared to the thankfully 60% who stayed out of those,and it is still a loss even if solids bring them up to 34 or 35 because they are still losing that base rise,the solids payment they'd have either way

4c average on a supplier like that is €40,000 Euro lost

I know people do like to hedge for volatility and all but I do it by putting some of that €40k aside now
I think it's perilous to leave that function in the hands of a corporate entity whose prime motive is to make profit from getting your milk for as little as possible

A very smug narrow minded post if u don't mind me saying ,not a glanbia supplier but have milk fixed this year ,I'll suck it up like most will do that did fix as with fixed scheme I'm in anyway it was an average of 3 years .would u have such an attitude if milk price was back in low mid 20s ?????.if u had your 40 k now would u put it all away ????,fair man if u would

George Sunsnow

Yes

degetme

Kerry suppiler here. Last month was first month since March 15 I've lost out on fixed price scheme. In fairness Kerry scheme at 34cl base plus solids was too good to turn down.

Water John

There is a big diff between fixing at 30/31 and 34.

whelan2

What will this mean for the glanbia price on the kpmg table for 2017?

mf240

I said last year that it was a bad idea to fix at 29 cent especially given the doubling up of volume in the second 18 months.

Couple of prominent posters got a little cheesed off with me at the time.

yewtree

degetme wrote: »

Kerry suppiler here. Last month was first month since March 15 I've lost out on fixed price scheme. In fairness Kerry scheme at 34cl base plus solids was too good to turn down.

Dead right to fix at that price. Have a small bit in fixed and it us costing but its very small money. Fixed schemes have to be viewed over the entire lenght. Its only a year since milk was at 22 cent base, how much were lads with milk fixed winning then? Foe here i hope to try and fix 30% of my milk going forward if the schemes are available to do it.

George Sunsnow

whelan2 wrote: »

What will this mean for the glanbia price on the kpmg table for 2017?

Ddddddddown
Dddddddddown
Ddddddddddown

George Sunsnow

yewtree wrote: »

Dead right to fix at that price. Have a small bit in fixed and it us costing but its very small money. Fixed schemes have to be viewed over the entire lenght. Its only a year since milk was at 22 cent base, how much were lads with milk fixed winning then? Foe here i hope to try and fix 30% of my milk going forward if the schemes are available to do it.

Against that though is the fact it was only a year prior to that,that milk prices were above 30 too(18 months prior way above)
No need for apron strings,it's a business we run so I would like control of my own hedging rather than trust it with those who have corporate duties that arent in my interest

mf240

mf240 wrote: »

I said last year that it was a bad idea to fix at 29 cent especially given the doubling up of volume in the second 18 months.

Couple of prominent posters got a little cheesed off with me at the time.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056928708&page=418

pedigree 6

So I take from the last few productive posts that people are happy that milk price is good atm?

Yes?

If so enjoy it.

There's no point then to the in your face loosers rhetoric.
What goes around comes around and all that.

George Sunsnow

mf240 wrote: »

I said last year that it was a bad idea to fix at 29 cent especially given the doubling up of volume in the second 18 months.

Couple of prominent posters got a little cheesed off with me at the time.

mf240 wrote: »

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056928708&page=418

If using the touch version that links to the wrong page,so I've taken some of the posts out for you and linked them directly below to give an idea for those of us on touch what you mean and where to find the posts

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=98868768&postcount=6258

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=98868863&postcount=6261

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=98869894&postcount=6282

pedigree 6

George Sunsnow wrote: »

If using the touch version that links to the wrong page,so I've taken some of the posts out for you and linked them directly below to give an idea for those of us on touch what you mean and where to find the posts

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=98868768&postcount=6258

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=98868863&postcount=6261

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=98869894&postcount=6282

Ye are Gods amongst men.

What will the price of milk be next year?

Mooooo

Nothing wrong with fixed schemes in one myself, only issue I have is participation in future schemes being dependant on past participation, which is wrong imo

pedigree 6

Mooooo wrote: »

Nothing wrong with fixed schemes in one myself, only issue I have is participation in future schemes being dependant on past participation, which is wrong imo

I used to think the same way.

But in the last hour I've changed my mind and completely agree with the system now.

Water John

Well just over 3 years ago the 'experts' were telling us milk was good for the next 6 years. 1 year ago it was bolloxed and would stay that way.
Yeah, the 'experts'are to be believed and followed.

Offering a fix less than 30 esp with the doubling the quantity in the 2nd half was mean and meant to squeeze those who could least afford to hedge themselves.
34 was a diff proposition altogether. At least you knew it was profitable.

mf240

pedigree 6 wrote: »

So I take from the last few productive posts that people are happy that milk price is good atm?

Yes?

If so enjoy it.

There's no point then to the in your face loosers rhetoric.
What goes around comes around and all that.

Your in great form today. :pac:

pedigree 6

mf240 wrote: »

Your in great form today. :pac:

Stopped the gloating though.:)

Buford T. Justice XIX

Water John wrote: »

Well just over 3 years ago the 'experts' were telling us milk was good for the next 6 years. 1 year ago it was bolloxed and would stay that way.
Yeah, the 'experts'are to be believed and followed.

Offering a fix less than 30 esp with the doubling the quantity in the 2nd half was mean and meant to squeeze those who could least afford to hedge themselves.
34 was a diff proposition altogether. At least you knew it was profitable.

Nothing fixed here, yet anyway, but heard a rumour that Kerry will be offering one at 31c soon. Nothing concrete yet though.

Keepgrowing

By God we've some fair experts on here now :)

Any predictions on next Mays milk price?

degetme

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

Nothing fixed here, yet anyway, but heard a rumour that Kerry will be offering one at 31c soon. Nothing concrete yet though.

heard there was going to be none when this one finishes

degetme

Keepgrowing wrote: »

By God we've some fair experts on here now :)

Any predictions on next Mays milk price?

base 31

Gawddawggonnit

Keepgrowing wrote: »

By God we've some fair experts on here now :)

Any predictions on next Mays milk price?

With grains, I measure my marketing performance over a five year average...
I was flying until late '15 and through '16...

Gawddawggonnit

degetme wrote: »

base 31

Another top 5 world grains harvest...feed grains currently in free fall...the yanks getting even more tooled up... I hope you're right.