Brexit: The Last Stand (No name calling)

FrancieBrady

steddyeddy wrote: »

It's the secretary of defense Fred, an ex navy commander and a senior tory. It was reported across the media.

All more than willing to warmonger and deflect.

Fratton Fred

steddyeddy wrote: »

It's the secretary of defense Fred, an ex navy commander and a senior tory. It was reported across the media.

and he gave assurance that the Prime minister would protect the sovereignty of Gibraltar.

People are putting two and two together and making five. Least of all the Sun.

lawred2

Fratton Fred wrote: »

and he gave assurance that the Prime minister would protect the sovereignty of Gibraltar.

People are putting two and two together and making five. Least of all the Sun.

He made specific reference to a war undertaken by a previous female Tory prime minister against another Spanish speaking nation.

Hardly cryptic.

tomwaterford

Fratton Fred wrote: »

as with all overseas territories, the UK is only responsible for foreign affairs and defence. It has no part in the internal administration of the country.

That's one of the reasons why the UK can't negotiate on the status of the falkalnds, it has no mandate to do so unless it is specifically asked by the Falklands government. It is the same with Gibraltar, giving it to Spain would be like telling France they can have Ireland.

Surly their government then can say they want to stay in the eu??
(As plainly it seems they do?)


All this talks of going to war etc....will never happen.....though it would make me fearful if I was a citizen of the UK...that this is the calibre of politian they have sent out to negotiate for them???


The first thing not to go there way and throw the toys outta the pram??


It seems evident Spain just wants to set up a position as to whenever it comes to it,it'll be a seamless transition to reunification....much the same as ireland negotiations for the north to be let straight Into the eu in event of a united Ireland??

What messing is all this talk of sending out army's to fight over a rock

Peregrinus

Fratton Fred wrote: »

as with all overseas territories, the UK is only responsible for foreign affairs and defence. It has no part in the internal administration of the country.

That's one of the reasons why the UK can't negotiate on the status of the falkalnds, it has no mandate to do so unless it is specifically asked by the Falklands government. It is the same with Gibraltar, giving it to Spain would be like telling France they can have Ireland.

Well, that's not quite correct. The British Overseas Territories are what in less politically-correct days were called colonies. The UK is entirely responsible for every aspect of their government. Most of them (including Gibraltar and the Falklands) have been granted internal self-government, meaning that local agencies and institutions deal with internal affairs. But even here responsibility remains with the UK; the local agencies and institutions do what they do because the UK has said they can. The UK can override them on any point at any time; it's only political convention that prevents that.

The UK, as you say, retains immediate control of defence and foreign affairs. (Which means, among other things, that it could cede the sovereignty of Gibraltar or the Falkland Islands; the UK government's stance that it won't do so without the assent of the representative bodies of the Territory concerned is a political stance, not a constitutional rule. This position isn't analogous to the UK's relationship to Ireland at all.)

But what we're concerned with here is not whether the UK will cede sovereignty of Gibraltar to Spain; it's "who will negotiate the future relationship of Gibraltar to the EU?" The answer to that question, on the UK side, is "the UK government", and not "the Gibraltarian government", since the question is one of foreign affairs. No doubt the UK will consult the Gibraltarian government, but that will be a matter between the UK and Gibraltar. And the UK government is, as already noted, going to conduct these negotiations in the interests of, and in accordance with the wishes of, the people of the UK, and not the people of Gibraltar.

josip

Do people really believe that the EU would condone or ignore an illegal invasion of Gibraltar by Spain?
There's not a chance of Spain doing that and there won't be any need of British military intervention.
At worst there may be a hardening of the border which I think would suit the Brexiters because it confirms their them and us narrative.

Also the EU couldn't continue to sanction Russia over Crimea, if it condoned/ignored a Spanish land grab of Gibraltar.

It's also possible that in the course of the 2 year negotiations the EU position will weaken. Although the UK has its smaller components wailing what about me?, they have had a common sense of British identity and solidarity for much longer than the EU.

The only thing we can be certain of from the negotiations will be that Germany will get exactly what it wants.
France will get something that will be acceptable for it but not perhaps what it sees as ideal.
The rest of will be fumbling in the greasy till trying to negotiate/threaten what we can get out out of the deal.
It will be a macrocosm of an Irish general election, where every Healy Rae is only considering what's in their own interests.
I would have been a Remainer in the referendum but I believe Theresa May has a better chance of keeping her side in line and consistent over the next 2 years than the EU has.

Fratton Fred

tomwaterford wrote: »

Surly their government then can say they want to stay in the eu??
(As plainly it seems they do?)

of course. Would Spain let them though?

tomwaterford wrote: »

All this talks of going to war etc....will never happen.....though it would make me fearful if I was a citizen of the UK...that this is the calibre of politian they have sent out to negotiate for them???

he is demonstrating to the people of Gibraltar that they will do everyting they can to protect their sovereignty. They had a referendum ten years ago, 99% want to remain separate from Spain. The UK is obliged to respect that.

tomwaterford wrote: »

It seems evident Spain just wants to set up a position as to whenever it comes to it,it'll be a seamless transition to reunification....much the same as ireland negotiations for the north to be let straight Into the eu in event of a united Ireland??

What messing is all this talk of sending out army's to fight over a rock

it is very different Ireland. 99% of people in Gibraltar want to retain their relationship with the UK. There is zero talk in Gibraltar of "Reunification".

Fratton Fred

Peregrinus wrote: »

Well, that's not quite correct. The British Overseas Territories are what in less politically-correct days were called colonies. The UK is entirely responsible for every aspect of their government. Most of them (including Gibraltar and the Falklands) have been granted internal self-government, meaning that local agencies and institutions deal with internal affairs. But even here responsibility remains with the UK; the local agencies and institutions do what they do because the UK has said they can. The UK can override them on any point at any time; it's only political convention that prevents that.

The UK, as you say, retains immediate control of defence and foreign affairs. (Which means, among other things, that it could cede the sovereignty of Gibraltar or the Falkland Islands; the UK government's stance that it won't do so without the assent of the representative bodies of the Territory concerned is a political stance, not a constitutional rule. This position isn't analogous to the UK's relationship to Ireland at all.)

But what we're concerned with here is not whether the UK will cede sovereignty of Gibraltar to Spain; it's "who will negotiate the future relationship of Gibraltar to the EU?" The answer to that question, on the UK side, is "the UK government", and not "the Gibraltarian government", since the question is one of foreign affairs. No doubt the UK will consult the Gibraltarian government, but that will be a matter between the UK and Gibraltar. And the UK government is, as already noted, going to conduct these negotiations in the interests of, and in accordance with the wishes of, the people of the UK, and not the people of Gibraltar.

in theory, yes. Just like in Theory the UK government can stop a Scottish referendum on independence, or, make Northern Ireland independent against its wishes.

Peregrinus

Fratton Fred wrote: »

of course. Would Spain let them though?

Surely the first question is, would the UK let them?

lawred2

josip wrote: »

Do people really believe that the EU would condone or ignore an illegal invasion of Gibraltar by Spain?

Where did that come from?

R P McMurphy

josip wrote: »

Do people really believe that the EU would condone or ignore an illegal invasion of Gibraltar by Spain?
There's not a chance of Spain doing that and there won't be any need of British military intervention.
At worst there may be a hardening of the border which I think would suit the Brexiters because it confirms their them and us narrative.

Also the EU couldn't continue to sanction Russia over Crimea, if it condoned/ignored a Spanish land grab of Gibraltar.

It's also possible that in the course of the 2 year negotiations the EU position will weaken. Although the UK has its smaller components wailing what about me?, they have had a common sense of British identity and solidarity for much longer than the EU.

The only thing we can be certain of from the negotiations will be that Germany will get exactly what it wants.
France will get something that will be acceptable for it but not perhaps what it sees as ideal.
The rest of will be fumbling in the greasy till trying to negotiate/threaten what we can get out out of the deal.
It will be a macrocosm of an Irish general election, where every Healy Rae is only considering what's in their own interests.
I would have been a Remainer in the referendum but I believe Theresa May has a better chance of keeping her side in line and consistent over the next 2 years than the EU has.

The structure for withdrawal puts the country leaving at a terrible disadvantage in negotiations simply because of the two year rule. Similarly any fragmentation of the EU position will also greatly weaken the chance of a concrete deal.

First Up

Gibraltar used to have relevance as a military base. That is no longer the case and it now survives mostly as a base for online gambling and where Brits retired in Spain can do some shopping.

Nobody is going to invade it but if the Linea marks the EU border, Spain has no reason to be nice - and plenty of opportunity to be nasty.

Peregrinus

Fratton Fred wrote: »

in theory, yes. Just like in Theory the UK government can stop a Scottish referendum on independence, or, make Northern Ireland independent against its wishes.

There's nothing theoretical about it. When the UK decided it wanted to lease the whole of the British Indian Ocean Territory to the US to use as an airbase, it simply bought the land from the plantation owners who held it, closed the plantations, deported the entire population to Mauritius (which at the time was also a British possession), dismantled the government structures which were no longer required, and leased the entire archipelago to the US as a military base, which it still is.

They won't do that to the Gibraltarians, of course; they're white. Plus, times have moved on a bit since the 1960s and 70s, when all this happened. But, most of all, the US isn't looking for Gibraltar.

I agree with you, it's absolutely a given that the UK will not cede the sovereignty of Gibraltar without the assent of the Gibraltarians. But they will take Gibraltar out of the EU without the assent of Gibraltarians; indeed, in opposition to the very strongly expressed view of Gibraltarians that they want to remain. So there can be no notion that the UK's role in Gibraltar is simply to respect and give effect to the wishes of Gibraltarians. On the particular question of sovereignty, they have said they will respect and give effect to Gibraltarians' wishes; on other questions, including relations with the EU, they have said nothing of the kind.

Christy42

josip wrote: »

Do people really believe that the EU would condone or ignore an illegal invasion of Gibraltar by Spain?
There's not a chance of Spain doing that and there won't be any need of British military intervention.
At worst there may be a hardening of the border which I think would suit the Brexiters because it confirms their them and us narrative.

Also the EU couldn't continue to sanction Russia over Crimea, if it condoned/ignored a Spanish land grab of Gibraltar.

It's also possible that in the course of the 2 year negotiations the EU position will weaken. Although the UK has its smaller components wailing what about me?, they have had a common sense of British identity and solidarity for much longer than the EU.

The only thing we can be certain of from the negotiations will be that Germany will get exactly what it wants.
France will get something that will be acceptable for it but not perhaps what it sees as ideal.
The rest of will be fumbling in the greasy till trying to negotiate/threaten what we can get out out of the deal.
It will be a macrocosm of an Irish general election, where every Healy Rae is only considering what's in their own interests.
I would have been a Remainer in the referendum but I believe Theresa May has a better chance of keeping her side in line and consistent over the next 2 years than the EU has.

Spain will not invade Gibraltar. Indeed Spain has not said it will.

Spain and the EU talked about vetos in trade deals and suddenly you get responses talking about war and sovereignty from the UK.

FrancieBrady

Peregrinus wrote: »

There's nothing theoretical about it. When the UK decided it wanted to lease the whole of the British Indian Ocean Territory to the US to use as an airbase, it simply bought the land from the plantation owners who held it, closed the plantations, deported the entire population to Mauritius (which at the time was also a British possession), dismantled the government structures which were no longer required, and leased the entire archipelago to the US as a military base, which it still is.

They won't do that to the Gibraltarians, of course; they're white. Plus, times have moved on a bit since the 1960s and 70s, when all this happened. But, most of all, the US isn't looking for Gibraltar.

I agree with you, it's absolutely a given that the UK will not cede the sovereignty of Gibraltar without the assent of the Gibraltarians. But they will take Gibraltar out of the EU without the assent of Gibraltarians; indeed, in opposition to the very strongly expressed view of Gibraltarians that they want to remain. So there can be no notion that the UK's role in Gibraltar is simply to respect and give effect to the wishes of Gibraltarians. On the particular question of sovereignty, they have said they will respect and give effect to Gibraltarians' wishes; on other questions, including relations with the EU, they have said nothing of the kind.

The Gibraltarians will catch up very quickly with Scotland in realising that their interests are subservient to those of a subset of the UK

Fratton Fred

Peregrinus wrote: »

There's nothing theoretical about it. When the UK decided it wanted to lease the whole of the British Indian Ocean Territory to the US to use as an airbase, it simply bought the land from the plantation owners who held it, closed the plantations, deported the entire population to Mauritius (which at the time was also a British possession), dismantled the government structures which were no longer required, and leased the entire archipelago to the US as a military base, which it still is.

They won't do that to the Gibraltarians, of course; they're white. Plus, times have moved on a bit since the 1960s and 70s, when all this happened. But, most of all, the US isn't looking for Gibraltar.

I agree with you, it's absolutely a given that the UK will not cede the sovereignty of Gibraltar without the assent of the Gibraltarians. But they will take Gibraltar out of the EU without the assent of Gibraltarians; indeed, in opposition to the very strongly expressed view of Gibraltarians that they want to remain. So there can be no notion that the UK's role in Gibraltar is simply to respect and give effect to the wishes of Gibraltarians. On the particular question of sovereignty, they have said they will respect and give effect to Gibraltarians' wishes; on other questions, including relations with the EU, they have said nothing of the kind.

yes, that is is in a nutshell.

The cold war is over.

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote:

The cold war is over.

But nerves seem to be somewhat frayed around parts of Westminster.

josip

lawred2 wrote: »

Where did that come from?

From catching up with 10 pages of this thread this morning.
When I woke up this morning, Gibraltar wasn't on my to-do list for today.
More than one poster here raised the issue of British military intervention in Gibraltar, which I believe would only occur if the Spanish physically occupied the territory.

TheCitizen

lawred2 wrote: »

Where did that come from?

He just made it up

steddyeddy

josip wrote: »

Do people really believe that the EU would condone or ignore an illegal invasion of Gibraltar by Spain?
There's not a chance of Spain doing that and there won't be any need of British military intervention.
At worst there may be a hardening of the border which I think would suit the Brexiters because it confirms their them and us narrative.

Also the EU couldn't continue to sanction Russia over Crimea, if it condoned/ignored a Spanish land grab of Gibraltar.

It's also possible that in the course of the 2 year negotiations the EU position will weaken. Although the UK has its smaller components wailing what about me?, they have had a common sense of British identity and solidarity for much longer than the EU.

The only thing we can be certain of from the negotiations will be that Germany will get exactly what it wants.
France will get something that will be acceptable for it but not perhaps what it sees as ideal.
The rest of will be fumbling in the greasy till trying to negotiate/threaten what we can get out out of the deal.
It will be a macrocosm of an Irish general election, where every Healy Rae is only considering what's in their own interests.
I would have been a Remainer in the referendum but I believe Theresa May has a better chance of keeping her side in line and consistent over the next 2 years than the EU has.

You see here's where the mental aspect comes in. Spain never mentioned invading Gibraltar. That's just what a lot of old Brits with wet dreams about empire wanted to hear.

It's far more likely that the UK will weaken TBH. This sense of Britishness is another delusions. Northern Ireland was partitioned against the will of the people of Ireland and its instability reflects that. Half of the government activity tried to bomb London. A move ironically condemned by the TElegraph that talks about "crippling Spain".

steddyeddy

Fratton Fred wrote: »

and he gave assurance that the Prime minister would protect the sovereignty of Gibraltar.

People are putting two and two together and making five. Least of all the Sun.

The ex navy commander talking about crippling Spain is taken out of context......

steddyeddy

josip wrote: »

From catching up with 10 pages of this thread this morning.
When I woke up this morning, Gibraltar wasn't on my to-do list for today.
More than one poster here raised the issue of British military intervention in Gibraltar, which I believe would only occur if the Spanish physically occupied the territory.

That's fantastic but no one mentioned invasion. We're talking about the threat of war by Britain in response to an imaginary invasion.

josip

TheCitizen wrote: »

He just made it up

I didn't make it up.
I wasn't the first one to discuss military intervention in Gibraltar.

steddyeddy wrote: »

Senior conservatives are suggesting that Gibraltar could be the next Falklands and May could go to war over it........ Jesus Britain leave behind this imperialistic crap. Micheal Fallon, defense secretary also said Britain wpuld "go all the way in defense of Gibraltar".

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-gibraltar-falklands-war-senior-conservatives-fallon-howard-a7662656.html

wes wrote: »

The people who called this project fear, when Cameron suggested Brexit could lead to European wars, have been proven wrong in less than a week after article 50 was triggered.

Turns out that project fear was project reality after all.

steddyeddy wrote: »

We have the defense secretary and a senior tory threatening war a few days into negotiations. People wonder why brexiters are accused of being imperialistic. Another reason why the EU needs an army.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Not a mission they will 'go to war' over Gibraltar. May doesn't need the PR to get elected. If Corbyn comes up in the polls and looks like winning maybe they will. :rolleyes:

Enzokk wrote: »

So if the UK goes to war against Spain due to Gibraltar, would they need to come to defense of Spain against themselves due to their NATO obligation?

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

What exactly would the Royal Navy do ?

If it's not a shooting war then it'll probably play out like the Cod War which the UK lost. If it's a shooting war then how long would the Royal Navy last without air cover ?

A reminder the ship that won the Falklands war , HMS Hermes, retired recently, after spending 30 years serving the Indian Navy. In fact had that war started a few months later the UK would not have been able to do anything as HMS Invincible had been sold to Australia and Hermes was due to be decommissioned, also the Vulcans didn't have many hours left on .their airframes.

Fratton Fred

steddyeddy wrote: »

Northern Ireland was partitioned against the will of the people of Ireland.

aah, this old chestnut again.

steddyeddy

josip wrote: »

I didn't make it up.
I wasn't the first one to discuss military intervention in Gibraltar.

No the UK did. We responded to the suggestion, not put it forward.

josip

steddyeddy wrote: »

That's fantastic but no one mentioned invasion. We're talking about the threat of war by Britain in response to an imaginary invasion.

A number of posters went further than discussing the threat and discussed the current military capabilities of the UK in a Gibraltar/Falklands type scenario.
I asked under what circumstances, if any, they think this military intervention would occur?
The only one I can think of, is a Spanish invasion/occupation.
I have clearly stated in my post that I don't believe that will happen.

There's not a chance of Spain doing that and there won't be any need of British military intervention.

steddyeddy

Fratton Fred wrote: »

aah, this old chestnut again.

Yes it was Fred. It might be a tough one for you to swallow but the majority of Ireland voted for pro independence parties. If you support partition you can forget trying to use "will of the people" as a cogent argument.

josip

steddyeddy wrote: »

No the UK did. We responded to the suggestion, not put it forward.

I said you "discussed it", not put it forward.

steddyeddy

josip wrote: »

A number of posters went further than discussing the threat and discussed the current military capabilities of the UK in a Gibraltar/Falklands type scenario.
I asked under what circumstances, if any, they think this military intervention would occur?
The only one I can think of, is a Spanish invasion/occupation.
I have clearly stated in my post that I don't believe that will happen.

Fantastic but it's the UK issuing vieled threats in response to nothing. No one talked about invasion.

Christy42

josip wrote: »

From catching up with 10 pages of this thread this morning.
When I woke up this morning, Gibraltar wasn't on my to-do list for today.
More than one poster here raised the issue of British military intervention in Gibraltar, which I believe would only occur if the Spanish physically occupied the territory.

So you assumed. Should Germany also start talking about if the UK starts a bombing raids against them?

Of course not and would be a sign that the Germans have gone unhinged if they are talking about war to an imaginary threat. This is what the Brits have been doing. They are imagining an invasion from Spain and stating their reaction. This is obviously unsettling to have one side go from talking about trade agreements to war with another western power.