Turkish tanks and special forces flooding into northern Syria as we speak!

BoJack Horseman

Regarding the FSA/Turkish "Euphrates Shield" operation, things have quietened to a crawl.

I'm not sure if this is because the Turks see it as being a job done.
Certainly ISIS resistance has stiffened compared to the fighting along the border which was over in a couple of days.

Plus ISIS having controlled the area for some time have mined/IED the area all to hell:

Musketeer4

Russia have, and always had, a significant advantage in land forces over the west. Previously this was a numerical advantage but in the last 20 years we are seeing very capable high tech hardware being deployed in smaller numbers, eg the T90 tank.

Russia also has an collossal advantage in terms of the size of their nuclear arsenal.

They are behind in their air forces and very far behind in the naval forces.

AbusesToilets

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Good video.

It is a stark reminder that rhetoric aside, Russia enjoys considerable technological advantages in its land forces compared to the West.

I would disagree on that one. They have areas in which they have superior tech being employed currently, such as the protection systems and possibly their artillery. The widespread availability of thermobaric weapons among their infantry and SOF would be an advantage over the US.

Beyond that, I would be hesitant to call a mostly poorly equipped, conscript force superior to that of the US.

AbusesToilets

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Regarding the FSA/Turkish "Euphrates Shield" operation, things have quietened to a crawl.

I'm not sure if this is because the Turks see it as being a job done.
Certainly ISIS resistance has stiffened compared to the fighting along the border which was over in a couple of days.

Plus ISIS having controlled the area for some time have mined/IED the area all to hell:

Reports over the last few days that US Army SF were training with Turkish forces and their militia in Syria. I wonder how much influence they will be capable of exerting and what that means for the Kurdish forces who USSF were working with to date?

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/16/politics/new-us-mission-syria/

BoJack Horseman

AbusesToilets wrote: »

Reports over the last few days that US Army SF were training with Turkish forces and their militia in Syria. I wonder how much influence they will be capable of exerting and what that means for the Kurdish forces who USSF were working with to date?

They aren't so much training as fighting..... but I suppose that is what 'training' usually involves.

I imagine influence is modest.
The Kurds are in a strange position.
They were ordered by both Washington & Ankara to retreat east of the Euphrates.
But their territory in the area remains intact with sporadic attacks from ISIS to the south.

BoJack Horseman

Today has been a bit of a shock.

It seems to be all going a bit 'Pete Tong'!

ISIS have counterattacked aggressively and retaken several villages over the last day.
They are now rather close to the border.



Turkey were not devoting much resources to this, but if they don't want it to all unravel, they will have to up their game.

Musketeer4

Crap it. What if outside cross the bleeder into turkey?

BoJack Horseman

Musketeer4 wrote: »

Crap it. What if outside cross the border into turkey?

Well, on their own side of the border the Turks are seemingly quite well prepared.

It is alarming that ISIS were able to make quite a successful counter attack though.

I've read (unconfirmed) that the FSA militias are supposed to be paid by Turkey and this wasn't forthcoming so the FSA 'withdrawl' relates to that.
No idea if it is true though..... it could be. Few of these lads do this sh*t without being paid.

Musketeer4

Sorry, I meant what if ISIS cross the border into Turkey.

I presume the Turks would not let them, they'd defend their own territory with much fiercer resistance than occupied territory in Syria.

Gatling

See the problem is Turkey's plan is very over ambitious ,they want to create a 5000k safe zone /and No fly zone inside Syria the problem is they haven't mobilised the massive military numbers to so so ,
You need to construct bases and FOBs and have the men and equipment to man and defend them.and then have secure supply lines.
They need to look at ISAF in Afghanistan to learn what not to do ,

Will isis cross into Turkey no but anything is possible in theory Turkey's army could drive from their border to the Iranian border across Syria going by size and strength alone ,
But going by the last few days there not really equipped to do so

AbusesToilets

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

They aren't so much training as fighting..... but I suppose that is what 'training' usually involves.

I imagine influence is modest.
The Kurds are in a strange position.
They were ordered by both Washington & Ankara to retreat east of the Euphrates.
But their territory in the area remains intact with sporadic attacks from ISIS to the south.

I wonder if there could be an avenue for a peace settlement between the Kurds and Turks by allowing them to carve out an independent state from northern Iraq/ Syria, whilst renouncing the Kurdish areas of Turkey?

Pie in the sky for sure, but if the Turks are looking to establish a buffer area against ISIS, a Kurdish state would be pretty handy for that.

Gatling

Came across this a few mins ago

4:12 PM EDT- 21 September 2016 -- A Russian military vessel in the coastal waters off of Syria, targeted and destroyed a "foreign operations center" killing several American, Israeli, and Turkish Military officers. "Russian warships fired caliber rockets onto the command posts of the terrorists in western Aleppo, where Turkish, Saudi, Israeli, UK, and US officers are deployed to aid their operations," Sputnik News Agency reported on Tuesday.
.

Had to laugh,

Musketeer4

So did that happen or is it BS?
Whatever about Turks, if Russia is now going around killing UK, US and Israeli personnel they are really dicing with danger.

Gatling

Musketeer4 wrote: »

So did that happen or is it BS?
Whatever about Turks, if Russia is now going around killing UK, US and Israeli personnel they are really dicing with danger.

It's only mentioned by Kremlin outfit Sputnik new no other either western media ,middle East or independent media have mentioned it ,

Musketeer4

What about SOHR ? They are, yer man in the second hand clothes shop is usually quick to jump on and condemn anything done by Assad and his allies.

Gatling

Musketeer4 wrote: »

What about

Unfortunately this been the military forum I'm not getting involved with the whole back and forward nonsense that comes with that discussion

BoJack Horseman

Musketeer4 wrote: »

So did that happen or is it BS?.

It didn't happen.
Plus the reds spelt the name of their own weapon incorrectly!

BoJack Horseman

Operation "Euphrates Shield" is now in a state of collapse.

ISIS forces are now within a couple of kms of the Turkish border.

What FSA forces that are resisting are getting crushed as ISIS retake village after village

Remember at the start of the thread we discussed the stupidity of Washington & Ankara ordering the Kurds to stand down & retreat.

Luckily they did not, because the only ones taking land are ISIS.

AbusesToilets

Really speaks to the awful quality of soldiering in the armies of that region.

PlamenDon

An interesting article from sofrep about US special forces who detest the mission they've been given:

sofrep.com/63764/us-special-forces-sabotage-white-house-policy-gone-disastrously-wrong-with-covert-ops-in-syria/

US Special Forces sabotage White House policy gone disastrously wrong with covert ops in Syria

“Nobody believes in it. You’re like, ‘**** this,’” a former Green Beret says of America’s covert and clandestine programs to train and arm Syrian militias. “Everyone on the ground knows they are jihadis. No one on the ground believes in this mission or this effort, and they know they are just training the next generation of jihadis, so they are sabotaging it by saying, ‘**** it, who cares?’”


ISIS was now on the CIA’s radar. CTC [CIA’s Counter-Terrorism Center] targeted the organization, but not often enough to have any tangible effect on the battlespace. Toward the end of 2014, the CIA had less than 20 targeting officers and analysts dedicated to fighting ISIS. As of early 2016, the situation had improved little. According to several sources, the CIA simply does not care about ISIS. Using an excuse that ISIS is an army rather than a terrorist organization, they have punted the job to Army special operations-the men of Special Forces and Delta Force.
In Syria, the overwhelming priority for the CIA is what some CTC officers call Director John Brennan’s baby: the removal of the Assad regime.


Distinguishing between the FSA and al-Nusra is impossible, because they are virtually the same organization. As early as 2013, FSA commanders were defecting with their entire units to join al-Nusra. There, they still retain the FSA monicker, but it is merely for show, to give the appearance of secularism so they can maintain access to weaponry provided by the CIA and Saudi intelligence services. The reality is that the FSA is little more than a cover for the al-Qaeda-affiliated al-Nusra.


The fact that the FSA simply passed American-made weaponry off to al-Nusra is also unsurprising considering that the CIA’s vetting process of militias in Syria is lackluster, consisting of little more than running traces in old databases.These traces rely on knowing the individuals’ real names in the first place, and assume that they were even fighting-age males when the data was collected by CTC years prior


Brennan was the one who breathed life into the Syrian Task Force, which was able to draw upon resources from CTC/SI. “John Brennan loved that regime-change bull****,” a former CIA officer commented. CTC/SI focuses on counterterrorism, while the Syrian Task Force conducts espionage, influence operations, and paramilitary activities in conjunction with the Special Activities Division (SAD) as needed in pursuit of regime change, including the covert arming of militia groups inside Syria.
The CIA’s Ground Branch paramilitary component was being treated like a bunch of toddlers in Syria, with case officers acting as if they were just hired help. Composed of former special operations personnel, Ground Branch has been very active in combat while working alongside Afghan commandos assigned to that country’s NDS intelligence service, but in Jordan, they were not trusted to do anything more than observe and report. They could ask rebel leaders who came across the border how things were going, but not much else.


By 2015, U.S. Special Forces were established in both Jordan and Turkey with the task of working by, with, and through surrogate forces to attack ISIS. In this instance, they rarely, if ever, fought alongside indigenous forces, but rather by them, training them in a host nation and then deploying them or working through third-country nationals such as Turkish and Jordanian Special Forces to train the Syrian militias who were then sent across the border.


The rebels know how to sell themselves to the Americans during such interviews, but they still let things slip occasionally. “I don’t understand why people don’t like al-Nusra,” one rebel told the American soldiers. Many had sympathies with the terrorist groups such as Nusra and ISIS. Others simply were not fit to be soldiers. “They don’t want to be warriors. They are all cowards. That is the moderate rebel,” a Green Beret told SOFREP. “A bunch of farmers and retards who could not hack it in ISIS, and the Syrian Army would not want them either.”


Among the rebels that U.S. Special Forces and Turkish Special Forces were training, “A good 95 percent of them were either working in terrorist organizations or were sympathetic to them,” a Green Beret associated with the program said, adding, “A good majority of them admitted that they had no issues with ISIS and that their issue was with the Kurds and the Syrian regime.” Like the militias being trained in Jordan, the rebels being trained in Turkey were not ready for combat. “It is not in their blood to be fighters. A large majority of them are criminals,” a Green Beret said. Many were foreign fighters, some from Iraq. One even turned out to be a Lebanese drug smuggler.
“The majority of these guys have been coached on what to say at the training site and give cookie-cutter answers,” the Special Forces soldier told SOFREP. They would portray themselves as being secular, but the Americans could tell who the hardliners were because they didn’t smoke (jihadis follow Wahhabi Islam, which does not permit it) and looked at the Green Berets with disdain.


The relationship with the Turks was, and is, extremely complicated. In the tactical operations center (TOC) run by U.S. Special Forces in Turkey, there are also Turkish military officers present. The Americans have to pretend that they are not working with the Kurds, while other 5th Group members and Delta Force operators are, in fact, embedded with the Kurdish YPG militia. Likewise, the Turkish military turned a blind eye and pretended not to know that the Americans were with the YPG militia in Syria. To make a strange situation even stranger, the Green Berets also had to pretend not to know that the Turkish Special Forces were training their own jihadi force in northern Turkey.
Turkey sponsors groups like Ahrar al-Sham (the CIA has tracked al-Qaeda members from the federally administered tribal areas in Pakistan joining them), and the Turkish Special Forces train them and then send them across the border into Syria using the Jarabulus corridor. When the jihadis come through, the Turkish military transmits the code word “lights out” to tell the border guards to let their proxy force through.


Pallets of weapons and rows of trucks delivered to Turkey for American-sponsored rebel groups simply sit and collect dust because of disputes over title authorities and funding sources while authorization to conduct training for the militias is turned on and off at a whim. One day they will be told to train, the next day not to, and the day after only to train senior leaders. Some Green Berets believe that this hesitation comes from the White House getting wind that most of the militia members are affiliated with Nusra and other extremist groups. Those given arms by Special Forces are given American-made weaponry in order to keep the militias dependent on the United States for ammunition resupply.
While the games continue on, morale sinks for the Special Forces men in Turkey. Often disguised in Turkish military uniform, one of the Green Berets described his job as, “Sitting in the back room, drinking chai while watching the Turks train future terrorists.”


In regards to Syria, 5th Group leaders see ISIS as the only game in town. The war in Syria keeps them relevant and gives them a purpose to remain in the Middle East. Initially, they deployed to Jordan with the excuse that they would be there to secure weapons of mass destruction from the Assad regime, which was redundant since JSOC has a specialized unit for that task. In reality, 5th Group wanted to be on the leading edge for a potential invasion of Syria.


For the time being, the Special Forces soldiers assigned to carry out Title 10 programs feel as if they have to make it look like they are doing their job while actually doing nothing. With their hands tied behind their backs, options are few and far between. Many are actively sabotaging the programs by stalling and doing nothing, knowing that the supposedly secular rebels they are expected to train are actually al-Nusra terrorists.

shane9689

^^ sounds about right. Pretty sure everyone with half a political brain knows this already. Its been American policy in S.America and Afghanistan, so why not here too, i mean it was working too until Russia stepped in.

VladamirP

Russia says it will shoot down US planes if they attack Syrian forces.
Russia has stated today that it will use S300 and S400 missile systems in Syria to defend against US aggression against Syrian forces.
The US media has been saying the past couple of days that they want Assad removed from power, it's been heating up for a while now, but it's getting very tense now, nobody seems to be willing to back down, the tone of military personnel on both sides is more combative than it has been in years.

I don't think the 3 ships Russia has sent to the Mediterranean are for Isis missions, after Washington's veiled threats against Russia last week things seem to be spinning out of control fast.

‘S-300, S-400 air defenses in place’: Russian MoD warns US-led coalition not to strike Syrian army
Russia’s Defense Ministry has cautioned the US-led coalition of carrying out airstrikes on Syrian army positions, adding in Syria there are numerous S-300 and S-400 air defense systems up and running.
Russia currently has S-400 and S-300 air-defense systems deployed to protect its troops stationed at the Tartus naval supply base and the Khmeimim airbase. The radius of the weapons reach may be “a surprise” to all unidentified flying objects, Russian Defense Ministry spokesperson General Igor Konashenkov said.
rt.com/news/361800-russi...usa-aistrikes/


Russia posts provocative tweet warning US on Syria, mocking Earnest
The Russian government is ratcheting up warnings – on Twitter – to the U.S. government not to interfere with its military operations in Syria, even suggesting American aircraft could be targeted by its “air defense systems.”

In a provocative tweet Wednesday, the Russian embassy in Washington posted a side-by side photo of White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest and the Russian S-300 missile system.
foxnews.com/politics/2016...g-earnest.html


2 Russian ships take cruise missiles to Mediterranean for Syrian anti-terror op
Two Russian vessels will join up with Russia’s permanent naval fleet in the Mediterranean Sea, where they will assist in the military operation against Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) in Syria.
“It is planned that the Serpukhov and the Zeleny Dol will go to the Mediterranean as part of a planned rotation that will join up with the permanent naval task force,” Russian Navy representative Nikolay Voskresensky told journalists.
The two guided missile fast attack craft left from the port of Sevastopol on October 4 and are currently sailing through the Black Sea in order to join up with the Russian fleet.
rt.com/news/361699-syria...navy-missiles/


3rd Russian Black Sea fleet ship leaves for Mediterranean to join anti-ISIS op
A third Russian warship – the corvette ‘Mirage’ – has left the port of Sevastopol and set sail for the Mediterranean Sea to assist in Russia’s anti-Islamic State operations, the Russian Black Sea Fleet has confirmed.
“The fast-attack guided missile craft (FAC) of the Black Sea, ‘Mirage’, has left Sevastopol and set out on a long Mediterranean journey, after having completed a round of preparations,” the interim head of the information department for the Black Sea fleet, Captain 2nd-rank Nikolay Voskresensky said.
rt.com/news/361827-third-ship-syria-op/


Putin gave a clear warning in July about how things were going and no media paying attention.




‘Russia will continue to send troops home [from Syria] in body bags’ – US State Dept




The former head of the CIA went on Charlie Rose a few weeks ago saying the US should make Russia and Iran pay, a few days later Putin's favorite chauffeur was killed in a head on collision.






The next few days will probably make or break everything.

Isaiah 17

17 The burden of Damascus. Behold, Damascus is taken away from being a city, and it shall be a ruinous heap.

Lemming

How's Olgina these days VladamirP? Still plenty of paying work to be found for those folks in Saint Petersburg?

BoJack Horseman

We interrupt this "russiya stronk / amerika evil" interlude to return to topic.

The Turks & their FSA proxies have gotten their act together again..... now, it remains to see if there will be a counter-punch again.



See the highlighted town Dabiq?
Well, that is supposed to be some sort of apocalyptic Alamo for ISIS
Word is, they have pushed 800-1000 fighters into the small town to make their 'stand'.
Considering that the town had a pre-war population of 3,000 this is a considerable concentration of force on the part of ISIS.
Rebels / Turks are closing in to within a few kms.

If the rebels take it & collapse that ISIS pocket to the north it will be a hammer blow to the jihadi's morale.

Blowfish

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

See the highlighted town Dabiq?
Well, that is supposed to be some sort of apocalyptic Alamo for ISIS
Word is, they have pushed 800-1000 fighters into the small town to make their 'stand'.
Considering that the town had a pre-war population of 3,000 this is a considerable concentration of force on the part of ISIS.
Rebels / Turks are closing in to within a few kms.

If the rebels take it & collapse that ISIS pocket to the north it will be a hammer blow to the jihadi's morale.

I dunno, in some senses I think they'd be better off taking their time over Dabiq. Outside of the Hadith 'prophecy' it's strategically pretty unimportant, so use the 'prophecy' against them, i.e. slowly surround it on 3 sides, make lots of media appearances bigging up its importance and that it'll be a climatic battle and throw the odd skirmish at them. In other words, try and convince ISIS to transfer as many fighters from other areas to Dabiq as possible, then just attack them in the other more strategically relevant areas and not Dabiq.

I doubt Turkey would want to play it that way though as it'd probably give to much opportunity for more advancement to the Kurds.

Manic Moran

[Mod]
Vladimir, warning. If you haven't noticed, that's a simple copy-paste of an article which is.... of questionable utility. You're welcome to post here, and you're even allowed to have a biased opinion, but please post things which are a little less weighted, and a little more conducive to reasonable discussion.

Everyone: And while I'm at it, the whole Olgina thing: New policy, which I'll throw into the charter in a bit. It is apparent to me that our usual moderation system of looking at a person's background when determining punishments can be easily gotten around by use of a number of different persons from differing locations. From this point on, I'm going to start looking at overall trends in posts regardless of poster. If I determine that there is a co-ordinated attempt to push an agenda, everyone involved will be hit, even if it's a first offense. [/mod]

BoJack Horseman

Blowfish wrote: »

I doubt Turkey would want to play it that way though as it'd probably give to much opportunity for more advancement to the Kurds.

There seems to be no indication that it will.

From the looks of things, the amount of resources invested in this effort by Turkey seem modest & ditto for the numbers of fighters.
The advancement into ISIS territory seems to be focused in relatively small areas, they seem unable to spread the offensive wider.

I agree with you that the 'Alamo' town may be a slow burn, if only because if ISIS are dug in, the FSA lack the resources for a swift victory..... but time will tell.

Next week will be interesting here.
Activity slows down on the weekend, even these lads take rest days!

VladamirP

Regarding John Kerry's words the other day about Syria/Russia bombing a hospital in Aleppo, when John Kirby was asked about these war crimes he admitted that no hospital was hit in Aleppo and did a good tongue twisting job where he basically admitted Kerry was lying, but unintentionally.
Kirby also couldn't explain how the US would conduct an investigation into war crimes when the US is is not a participant in the International Criminal Court (ICC).

This video from about 3:30, a good video showing US double speak.
video.state.gov/en/video/5161461687001

France posted pictures of 2 hospitals bombed by Russia/Syria, here's the pic.
//2.bp.blogspot.com/-0h_FE2SusSk/V_fyERiBcJI/AAAAAAAAH_U/E-P1uiyN0wYY-RLiJPIh3qgbPyjSDAl6QCLcB/s1600/14625405_10210235995435266_1393322777_n.jpg

Except the pic of the 2 hospitals that France used were pics from Gaza.
4.bp.blogspot.com/-mYdOn4tuH-k/V_fyB8NbPNI/AAAAAAAAH_Q/GzJX47WmmkMbzyU5yOsyGPTF0CT8bygJQCLcB/s1600/14619918_10210235995755274_1604074288_n.jpg

BoJack Horseman

The Turks / FSA are really starting to get it together now.
That ISIS pocket has shrank rapidly in the last week.



Apparently 1500 km2 of territory has been liberated from ISIS as part of this operation and around 4,000 refugees from Jarabulus have already moved back across the border to start rebuilding.

Musketeer4

But what happens when the Turks have cut through ISIS and they are looking across a field at the dogs of Putin and Assad? Will one side or other engage?