Turkish tanks and special forces flooding into northern Syria as we speak!

Gatling

KingBrian2 wrote: »

Syrian armed forces have been doing a lot to keep ISIS at bay,

They have done feck all till russia started its heavy bombardments from the air the Assad regime only controlled 12% of the whole country,
Remember only 2 weeks ago russia and Assad had declared they has surrounded allepo completely and called for a surrender less than 4 days later then Siege of Aleppo was broken ,
Funny that ,

The Assad regime has been near bled dry they are now relying on Iran and Hezbollah to fight and guess what there getting a kicking and taking heavy losses despite heavy air attacks from Russia ,

Till someone is willing to put 200,000+ troops on the ground nighter Assad or russia is willing or able to

shane9689

Turkey pulled their diplomat out of austria after austria allowes local kurd to protest turkeys actions

Patser

Musketeer4 wrote: »

So there is an alliance of sorts now between Turkey and the Iran-Syrian Government coalition?

Turkey are pure shnakes, playing both sides depending on what suits them.

Didn't Erdogen have a big meeting with Putin only 2 weeks ago, pretty much begging for friendship again with Russia after the whole Mig incident last year - which has fairly much destroyed Turkey's Russian tourist trade.

Now suddenly their tacitly on Russia's pro Syrian side.

Gatling

Patser wrote: »

Didn't Erdogen have a big meeting with Putin only 2 weeks ago, pretty much begging for friendship again with Russia after the whole Mig incident last year - which has fairly much destroyed Turkey's Russian tourist trade.

Now suddenly their tacitly on Russia's pro Syrian side.

There even suggesting that russia can use Incirlik Air Base which is home to NATO forces to bomb rebels and isis ,
Turkey just wants Assad gone and Putin won't allow that to happen

Musketeer4

Turks demand kurds to widthraw east of euphrates and threaten annihilation of kurds if demand not heeded.

Already its being reported that Turkish ground forces have slaughtered at least 46 in several captured villages.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-25/turkey-says-has-27every-right-to-intervene27-if-no-syrian-kur/7786620

Turkey seems to be lining itself up for another shot at a genocide of the Kurds.
Erdogan has lost the fúcking run of himself altogether!

riffmongous

shane9689 wrote: »

Turkey pulled their diplomat out of austria after austria allowes local kurd to protest turkeys actions

It goes a bit deeper than that, there's been a war of words between ministers from both countries the last weeks over Turkey joining the EU

Gatling

Musketeer4 wrote: »

Turks demand kurds to widthraw east of euphrates and threaten annihilation of kurds if demand not heeded.

Also, Turkish ground forces slaughter 46 in various villages.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-25/turkey-says-has-27every-right-to-intervene27-if-no-syrian-kur/7786620

Turkey seems to be lining itself up for another shot at a genocide of the Kurds.
Erdogan has lost the fúcking run of himself altogether!

Wonder what Iran and Hezbollah think of all of this Been if Erdoğan decides he's going to take Damascus there the ones who have to try stop him ,

Musketeer4

I can't see that happening. While hezbollah wouldn't stand much chance against a full Turkinsh blitz towards towards Damascus the Russians will not accept Turkey threatening Assad. Russia will launch missiles at Istanbul and Ankara if the Turks launch a drive on Damascus.

Gatling

Musketeer4 wrote: »

I can't see that happening. While hezbollah wouldn't stand much chance against a full launch a full blow assault towards damascus the Russians will not accept Turkey threatening Assad. Russia will launch missiles at Istanbul and Ankara if the Turks launch a drive on Damascus.

And that will result in the first Nato Article 5 essentially all out war ,
As it stands Turkish forces would easily take Damascus in the current climate,
Unless 200,000 troops backed up with armour and airpower ,appear to stop them
Add the fact Turkey can mobilise more forces than any other country in the region

Musketeer4

I don't think Erdogan would risk trying to take Damascus. As said, the Russians would not allow it.
Erdogan won't attack Damascus because Russian missiles would hit Turkish cities. If missiles hit Turkey there would be a dramatic escalation which Turkey wouldn't risk drawing on themselves. It doesn't matter how many troops Turkey can muster at present because any remaining troops will be committed to domestic humanitarian relief if missiles burst over Ankara. Hence Turkey won't go after the lair of Assad.

Gatling

Musketeer4 wrote: »

Russian missiles would hit Turkish cities. If missiles hit Turkey there would be a dramatic escalation which Turkey wouldn't risk drawing on themselves. Hence Turkey won't go after the lair of Assad.

Russia will not attack Turkish cities ,

If that happened Nato Article 5 would be invoked and we go to war that means every NATO country comes to the defend it's member under attack ,

Musketeer4

NATO would not come to Turkey's aid, they'd more than likely hang them out to dry rather than go to war. If they did China would back up Putin.

riffmongous

Gatling wrote: »

Russia will not attack Turkish cities ,

If that happened Nato Article 5 would be invoked and we go to war that means every NATO country comes to the defend it's member under attack ,

Article 5
“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Is there some wiggle room there I wonder?

edit: Although, there is no need even for wiggle room, either they back them up or they kick them out

Musketeer4

There is a lot of wiggle room through out that Article, its very wishy washy.

"as is deemed necessary" - they might deem it unnecessary due to the risk of further escalation if all the Russians did was launch a punitive attack of limited scope.

Gatling

Musketeer4 wrote: »

NATO would not come to Turkey's aid,.

I don't think your understanding the situation at all ,
Nato forces are already in Turkey along with Nuclear weapons,
Turkey can even shut the Bosporus straight to Russian ships coming from the blacksea ,no access to the agean and the med unless Turkey says so

Gatling

riffmongous wrote: »

edit: Although, there is no need even for wiggle room, either they back them up or they kick them out

That leaves you the option of saying sorry to the Baltics and Nordic members saying we now only selective defend our members ,
Which would split the alliance

Musketeer4

I do. Anyway, I cannot see any of this happening.

I doubt Turkey would be able to close the straits in any practical sense.
This is a major strategic corridor for the Russians and I'm quite sure that they have plans in place, thought out over many decades, to deal with any Turkish tantrums with the Bosphorous strait.

Widdershins

Turkey's intervention is about preventing the Kurds from uniting their cantons and building Rojava. Erdogan has always been more afraid of a Kurdish State than Islamic State

Gatling

Musketeer4 wrote: »

I do. Anyway, I cannot see any of this happening.

I doubt Turkey would be able to close the straits in any practical sense.
This is a major strategic corridor for the Russians and I'm quite sure that they have plans in place, thought out over many decades, to deal with any Turkish tantrums with the Bosphorous strait.

Like attacking them

Musketeer4

Or hitting whatever measures it is they would impose to close the straight. You can be sure that this whole corridor and the dealings surrounding it is closely monitored at all times.

Gatling

Musketeer4 wrote: »

Or hitting whatever measures it is they would impose to close the straight. You can be sure that this whole corridor and the dealings surrounding it is closely monitored at all times.

Along with the several other countries who have border the blacksea and happen to Nato countries with the exception of Ukraine

Musketeer4

The Kurds are now on the run eastwards from the Euphrates leaving Manbij wide open to being raced into by ISIS and the Turks, whoever can get there first.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/turkey-us-says-kurds-pulling-back-in-north-syria/

Patser

Isis is more or less a spent force now. They've lost huge areas of territory in Iraq, their huge financial windfalls of robbing state banks are gone, and they're being pounded on all sides.

This has created a vacuum for other sides in the Syrian civil war to try and exploit, best placed being the Kurds, which of course Turkey don't want. They don't want another Kurdish semi-state right on their border, so they've gone in the remove the Kurds and create a buffer zone.

Russia have allowed this as it now removes a 2nd opposition force from Assad's civil war, and they are now concentrating on the 'final' grouping the FSA, so as to cement Assad's rule.

The US and UK, kinda support the FSA but with no boots on the ground (officially) they're in the weakest position.

So Assad will probably regain some sort of control over the majority of Syria, which'll suit Putin and Turkey will get a buffer zone to sort out their domestic Kurd issue. Which is how I see the plan going. No way will Russian planes bomb Turkish troops or vice versa - they'll not want a repeat of the Mig incident.

Musketeer4

Patser wrote: »

No way will Russian planes bomb Turkish troops or vice versa - they'll not want a repeat of the Mig incident.

They absolutely will bomb Turkish troops if they are heading towards Damascus.

Gatling

Patser wrote: »

So Assad will probably regain some sort of control over the majority of Syria,

He won't though unless a massive military presence in the hundreds of thousands backed up with armour,heavy weapons infrastructure and safe supply lines ,
Assad doesnt have the forces neither does Hezbollah or Iran and Russia won't commit to sending hundreds of thousands of troops where they will be considered enemies thanks to the hammering there giving from the skys

Milkybar Kid.

FUBAR.

Musketeer4

Iran have plenty armour that they could commit.

Word is out that China are getting involved in some fashion with advisors on the ground.

Gatling

Musketeer4 wrote: »

Iran have plenty armour that they could commit.

Word is out that China are getting involved in some fashion with advisors on the ground.

Nobody is willing to commit the numbers required for the time frame to stabilise , rebuild and long term secure Assad and the country ,

It's 1980s Afghanistan on super strength steroids

Musketeer4

Is it? But did USSR not commit itself balls to the wall in Afghanistan 78-89?
I thought they had gone full retard there moreso than now, ie they had armour and boots on the ground on a large scale. It was the USSR's Vietnam.

Patser

Musketeer4 wrote: »

They absolutely will bomb Turkish troops if they are heading towards Damascus.

If