The beginning of the end for taxi drivers

eeguy

I've been saying for a while that the life of professional driving is numbered in years not decades.

Today it seems that Uber is testing a new fleet of autonomous cars in Pittsburg next month.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-08-18/uber-s-first-self-driving-fleet-arrives-in-pittsburgh-this-month-is06r7on

For the moment, the cars will have a driver at the wheel to monitor and record the performance of the car, and take control if the need arises.

These professionally trained engineers sit with their fingertips on the wheel, ready to take control if the car encounters an unexpected obstacle. A co-pilot, in the front passenger seat, takes notes on a laptop, and everything that happens is recorded by cameras inside and outside the car so that any glitches can be ironed out.

Uber expects that autonomous taxis will be cheaper than the cost of running your own car.

Trips will be free for the time being, rather than the standard local rate of $1.30 per mile. In the long run, Kalanick says, prices will fall so low that the per-mile cost of travel, even for long trips in rural areas, will be cheaper in a driverless Uber than in a private car.

Every day there's a new autonomous announcement. Even setbacks like the Tesla crash last month have only pushed people to invest more time and money to perfect the system.

So is this the beginning of the end for taxi drivers and professional drivers in general?
Will there be over 30,000 drivers on the dole in 10 years time?

frozenfrozen

When will we see autonomous cars even attempt to drive on (non motorway / good dual carriageway) irish roads.. they might be OK at driving on big straight roads in america but I doubt they'll cope well here.

BrokenArrows

Thats true. But they need to start somewhere.
The technology will advance very quickly once it starts being used regularly.

Taxis should be super cheap if they can operate without drivers. Operating a car is the cheapest part of a taxi. Its the drivers salary which makes it expensive. If automated taxis become a thing then there is no point in owning a car.

Once automated cars become a thing then traffic wont exist because traffic is mostly caused by human error and inefficiencies.

murpho999

frozenfrozen wrote: »

When will we see autonomous cars even attempt to drive on (non motorway / good dual carriageway) irish roads.. they might be OK at driving on big straight roads in america but I doubt they'll cope well here.

Of course, as all roads in America are completely straight.

I think you need to read up on how autonomous car road sensors work.

Do you need think designers have thought of this?

Arsemageddon

At last - a taxi you can puke in without a soiling charge.

frozenfrozen

Autonomous cars will be great, there seem to be a lot of people on the road who would rather be doing anything else but driving.

Saipanne

frozenfrozen wrote: »

When will we see autonomous cars even attempt to drive on (non motorway / good dual carriageway) irish roads.. they might be OK at driving on big straight roads in america but I doubt they'll cope well here.

Just one post in for the Luddites to arrive.

eeguy

frozenfrozen wrote: »

When will we see autonomous cars even attempt to drive on (non motorway / good dual carriageway) irish roads.. they might be OK at driving on big straight roads in america but I doubt they'll cope well here.

Mining trucks drive autonomously on dirt tracks day in day out. You don't need white lines and clear weather.

Arsemageddon wrote: »

At last - a taxi you can puke in without a soiling charge.

Well you book it through an app, which presumably has your credit card details, and I'm sure they'll have cameras inside to stop people wrecking them.

I'm waiting for the taxi sex tapes.

skywanderer

There was a similar thread on this recently fearful for the railways once it catches on. What I really can't wait for is super capacitor technology which will give the Electric Car huge range and also enable large drones capable of carrying a few people. In the next few decades these will be the prominent methods of transportation, the days of the Internal Combustion Engine and reliance of Oil will hopefully soon be ending.

Letree

How will these cars get out when trying to come on to a main road from a side road. In my home town you could be sitting for half hour at rush hour to get out of some side roads unless someone lets you out. Are people likely to let a driverless car out as handy. I wonder what way they would program the car to deal with it.

bb1234567

If the human driven taxis arent considerably more expensive than uber robots then Id stick with humans. I like the conversation with taxi drivers and want to support human jobs

johnruns

eeguy wrote: »

I've been saying for a while that the life of professional driving is numbered in years not decades.


Taxi drivers in Ireland are far from professional.

eeguy

bb1234567 wrote: »

If the human driven taxis arent considerably more expensive than uber robots then Id stick with humans. I like the conversation with taxi drivers and want to support human jobs

That's the real motivation here. 80% of your fare is to pay the guy driving the car.
If this takes off, then really you're only paying the running costs, plus a profit margin to the company.

Alf Stewart.

eeguy wrote: »

I've been saying for a while that the life of professional driving is numbered in years not decades.

Today it seems that Uber is testing a new fleet of autonomous cars in Pittsburg next month.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-08-18/uber-s-first-self-driving-fleet-arrives-in-pittsburgh-this-month-is06r7on

For the moment, the cars will have a driver at the wheel to monitor and record the performance of the car, and take control if the need arises.


Uber expects that autonomous taxis will be cheaper than the cost of running your own car.



Every day there's a new autonomous announcement. Even setbacks like the Tesla crash last month have only pushed people to invest more time and money to perfect the system.

So is this the beginning of the end for taxi drivers and professional drivers in general?
Will there be over 30,000 drivers on the dole in 10 years time?

Will they be any less creepy than the manned ones?

bb1234567

eeguy wrote: »

That's the real motivation here. 80% of your fare is to pay the guy driving the car.
If this takes off, then really you're only paying the running costs, plus a profit margin to the company.

Yeh true but taxis arent that expensive really. 10-15 euro usually for me for any trip I take in Dublin with them, if they are less than 70% of human taxi driver costs then I would go with uber

The flying mouse

But who's going to put the world straight if we have no drivers, who we listen to now...

lertsnim

Johnny Cab is almost a reality. Joy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0H5k--n7sFI

Mint Sauce

Do we learn nothing from the movies!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCUYMM6pABw

Mint Sauce

Feck ya Lertsnim!

Wanderer78

Maybe we 'll finally achieve the life of leisure we've been promised for decades. These automated vehicles can service our debts, right!

NoCrackHaving

bb1234567 wrote: »

If the human driven taxis arent considerably more expensive than uber robots then Id stick with humans. I like the conversation with taxi drivers and want to support human jobs

Automation is coming rapidly and we won't be able to hold it back. Things like taxi drivers and train drivers and call centres (this one is nearly entirely automated already) are going to be among the first but even the professions (doctors, lawyers etc.) are going to be at risk very quickly.

Frankly a citizens income may be the only way forward in the future as the ratio of number of jobs needing humans versus the number of humans dwindle substantially. Unlike past industrial revolutions there aren't going to be new jobs coming online to take over from the old ones so a general income might be the only solution.

Jawgap

Technology will never be able to re-create the unique BO & stale tobacco smell of a taxi in Dublin

they will, however, by more efficient at ripping you off

The Backwards Man

Doomed to failure.

No robot would put up with the crap taxi drivers or any other public transit operatives have to. Your pizza delivery will be autonomous, your clothes from Amazon might be too, but these tech companies are venturing into a world they know nothing about. And if you think transport will be cheaper, think again. Uber are nothing but gouging middlemen at the minute in the transport sector, imagine what they would be like when they actually have a service to sell?

razorblunt

Are you busy? - Affirmative.
What time are you on 'til? - Infinity


Sign me up.

razorblunt

The Backwards Man wrote: »

Doomed to failure.

No robot would put up with the crap taxi drivers or any other public transit operatives have to. Your pizza delivery will be autonomous, your clothes from Amazon might be too, but these tech companies are venturing into a world they know nothing about. And if you think transport will be cheaper, think again. Uber are nothing but gouging middlemen at the minute in the transport sector, imagine what they would be like when they actually have a service to sell?

Are you busy?
What time are you on 'til?

The Backwards Man

razorblunt wrote: »

Are you busy?
What time are you on 'til?

I'll be busier than ever when the masses discover Uber, Google and Tesla are wearing no clothes, and they've sold them a pup.

Red_Wake

I'm not sure they'll catch on tbh.

People habitually break driving standards [speeding, stopping in yellow boxes, pulling out of an oncoming car] in order to speed up their journey [in some cases they feel they could be waiting another 10-20 minutes on their journey by obeying the law]. Driverless cars would never do this, would they have some kind of intelligence to let other cars out of side roads in the event of traffic? Passengers wouldn't be pleased seeing their cars letting others out, but would also not to be happy about being stuck waiting at a junction because traffic has the right of way[where normally someone would, soonber or later let a car out onto the road] and instead have to wait for traffic to clear.

TL:DR - driverless won't break laws which people do habitually to help themselves.

Joe prim

The Carriage Office will have to insist on keeping on a few of the old (human, or nearly human) stock, just for those of us for whom a night out is never complete until we hear a driver say " Ah, the blacksandroids have this game ruined, boss"

Jawgap

The Backwards Man wrote: »

Doomed to failure.

No robot would put up with the crap taxi drivers or any other public transit operatives have to. Your pizza delivery will be autonomous, your clothes from Amazon might be too, but these tech companies are venturing into a world they know nothing about. And if you think transport will be cheaper, think again. Uber are nothing but gouging middlemen at the minute in the transport sector, imagine what they would be like when they actually have a service to sell?

....can't even remember the last time I took a taxi in any city with Uber available.....taxi drivers are like modern day Luddites, they think they can hold back the march of the technology when what they do is an absolute model for being delivered through socialised, technology driven processes.

Del2005

eeguy wrote: »

I've been saying for a while that the life of professional driving is numbered in years not decades.

Today it seems that Uber is testing a new fleet of autonomous cars in Pittsburg next month.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-08-18/uber-s-first-self-driving-fleet-arrives-in-pittsburgh-this-month-is06r7on

For the moment, the cars will have a driver at the wheel to monitor and record the performance of the car, and take control if the need arises.


Uber expects that autonomous taxis will be cheaper than the cost of running your own car.



Every day there's a new autonomous announcement. Even setbacks like the Tesla crash last month have only pushed people to invest more time and money to perfect the system.

So is this the beginning of the end for taxi drivers and professional drivers in general?
Will there be over 30,000 drivers on the dole in 10 years time?

Until a corporation makes the "Will we kill the granny or child" decision autonomous driving will be like fusion power always a few years away. No corporation can make that decision and no government will allow it. What we'll have is autonomous vehicles on Motorways and high quality trunk roads, in towns and cities there will always be a human driving.

Saipanne

The Backwards Man wrote: »

Doomed to failure.

No robot would put up with the crap taxi drivers or any other public transit operatives have to. Your pizza delivery will be autonomous, your clothes from Amazon might be too, but these tech companies are venturing into a world they know nothing about. And if you think transport will be cheaper, think again. Uber are nothing but gouging middlemen at the minute in the transport sector, imagine what they would be like when they actually have a service to sell?

Apt name is apt.

The Backwards Man

Jawgap wrote: »

....can't even remember the last time I took a taxi in any city with Uber available.....taxi drivers are like modern day Luddites, they think they can hold back the march of the technology when what they do is an absolute model for being delivered through socialised, technology driven processes.

Uber only operate in the areas where taxis are a mass transit stopgap. Uber isn't a solution, it's just replacing one problem that's constantly kicked down the road with another

josip

Del2005 wrote: »

Until a corporation makes the "Will we kill the granny or child" decision autonomous driving will be like fusion power always a few years away. No corporation can make that decision and no government will allow it. What we'll have is autonomous vehicles on Motorways and high quality trunk roads, in towns and cities there will always be a human driving.

All it will take will be be the most progressive country to allow it.
Road fatalities/injuries/crashes will plummet in that country.
Pressure will mount in all other countries to emulate.
Within 10 years some country in the world will allow fully autonomous cars everywhere.
Within 20 years every country in the world will allow fully autonomous cars everywhere.
Within 30 years some country in the world will only allow autonomous cars and a special permit will be required for human operated cars.

beach_walker

Hmm so no more attempted gouging, taking a longer route, feigning to have no change, racist/ignorant bile on a trip home*? Wow, what a time to be alive.



*I mean that's if they even pick take your fare to begin with...

Jawgap

The Backwards Man wrote: »

Uber only operate in the areas where taxis are a mass transit stopgap. Uber isn't a solution, it's just replacing one problem that's constantly kicked down the road with another

I wouldn't see it that way - for a start it's still in the process of evolving and I think we'll see a lot of changes over the next few years including the compete socialisation of commuting and travelling.

People will use an app to locate other people travelling to (or close to) where they are going and engage them on a peer-to-peer basis. In fact, I'd say it won't be too long before public transit and private travel is integrated so that when you tap your phone and tell it where you want to go the technology will plan, price and pay for the quickest route even if its a combination of public transport, peer-to-peer sharing and whatever other forms emerge.

We're entering the twilight of the sPSV - and I don't doubt that there are kids alive now who will never use a taxi.

Jawgap

beach_walker wrote: »

Hmm so no more attempted gouging, taking a longer route, feigning to have no change, racist/ignorant bile on a trip home*? Wow, what a time to be alive.



*I mean that's if they even pick take your fare to begin with...

I don't know, I think all that would be selectable as an option.....you could opt for

.....the quickest route
.....the shortest route
.....or the 'traditional retro experience'.....whereupon the a/c system will pump in rancid air, an assortment of litter will fall from the roof, the nanotechnology in the seats will apply 'sticky mode,' a selection of pre-recorded rants will play and you can admire the Phoenix Park on your way from the airport to Howth

The Backwards Man

Jawgap wrote: »

I wouldn't see it that way - for a start it's still in the process of evolving and I think we'll see a lot of changes over the next few years including the compete socialisation of commuting and travelling.

People will use an app to locate other people travelling to (or close to) where they are going and engage them on a peer-to-peer basis. In fact, I'd say it won't be too long before public transit and private travel is integrated so that when you tap your phone and tell it where you want to go the technology will plan, price and pay for the quickest route even if its a combination of public transport, peer-to-peer sharing and whatever other forms emerge.

We're entering the twilight of the sPSV - and I don't doubt that there are kids alive now who will never use a taxi.

There's one chink in that utopian chain that will never be seamless.

People.

Jawgap

The Backwards Man wrote: »

There's one chink in that utopian chain that will never be seamless.

People.

Well there's more people involved in the chain now - and it's not exactly running with blistering efficiency.

Plus, while the debate may well focus on road safety, public safety is another consideration - if I had a choice at the moment I'd encourage any daughter of mine to take an automated autonomous cab instead of a male operated one.....

Your Face

You talkin to me?

beach_walker

The Backwards Man wrote: »

There's one chink in that utopian chain that will never be seamless.

People.

I really don't understand what is you're objecting to, or holding up as the problem with auto cars/transport. What is it that you see as the issue with it?

The Backwards Man

beach_walker wrote: »

I really don't understand what is you're objecting to, or holding up as the problem with auto cars/transport. What is it that you see as the issue with it?

I'm not objecting to it, I'm just telling yous it won't work!

Uber, Google et al are looking at it the same way you are, get the commuters going in the same direction in our driverless cars and monorails and boxybuses, and we'll make it cheaper for them to travel and more profitable for us. Grand, everybody wins right?

But that's not what will happen, we don't live in a dysopian 1984 where people go to work, clock in, clock out and go home. How do you get the dog to the vet? The kids to football? Your incontinent Granny to mass?

Jawgap

The Backwards Man wrote: »

I'm not objecting to it, I'm just telling yous it won't work!

Uber, Google et al are looking at it the same way you are, get the commuters going in the same direction in our driverless cars and monorails and boxybuses, and we'll make it cheaper for them to travel and more profitable for us. Grand, everybody wins right?

But that's not what will happen, we don't live in a dysopian 1984 where people go to work, clock in, clock out and go home. How do you get the dog to the vet? The kids to football? Your incontinent Granny to mass?

You take out your phone - you punch in where you want to go, how many are in the party and if there is anything 'special' (like an animal, person with impaired mobility etc) and your needs will be paired with someone or somepeople who can meet them.....

.....or you load yourself into your car, and if you've spare capacity you get on your phone tap in where you are where you are going and what you can take and if someone along the way needs that spot the technology will pair you off, you take them and payment is transferred to your account.

The Backwards Man

Jawgap wrote: »

You take out your phone - you punch in where you want to go, how many are in the party and if there is anything 'special' (like an animal, person with impaired mobility etc) and your needs will be paired with someone or somepeople who can meet them.....

.....or you load yourself into your car, and if you've spare capacity you get on your phone tap in where you are where you are going and what you can take and if someone along the way needs that spot the technology will pair you off, you take them and payment is transferred to your account.

I admire both your optimism and your faith in humanity.

eeguy

The Backwards Man wrote: »

But that's not what will happen, we don't live in a dysopian 1984 where people go to work, clock in, clock out and go home. How do you get the dog to the vet? The kids to football? Your incontinent Granny to mass?

The same way you do now obviously. You call a taxi.

Through only difference is you can fit one extra person in since there's no driver.
And it's cheaper because there's no driver.
And it's safer because there's no driver.

What part of this poses the problem?

Also the likes of Google et al. don't need to understand the taxi business. They just need to make the tech and let existing and new taxi companies adopt it for their own businesses.

NinjaTruncs

Red_Wake wrote: »

I'm not sure they'll catch on tbh.

People habitually break driving standards [speeding, stopping in yellow boxes, pulling out of an oncoming car] in order to speed up their journey [in some cases they feel they could be waiting another 10-20 minutes on their journey by obeying the law]. Driverless cars would never do this, would they have some kind of intelligence to let other cars out of side roads in the event of traffic? Passengers wouldn't be pleased seeing their cars letting others out, but would also not to be happy about being stuck waiting at a junction because traffic has the right of way[where normally someone would, soonber or later let a car out onto the road] and instead have to wait for traffic to clear.

TL:DR - driverless won't break laws which people do habitually to help themselves.

You assume breaking the rules of the road speed you up, but perhaps they slow everyone down. Traffic jams occur on perfectly clear stretches of the motorway because someone slows down unexpectedly and that has a knock on effect of stopping traffic. Driverless wouldn't cause such stoppages to occur. At times of heavy congestion driving slower will get more cars (safely) per hour trough a stretch of road than driving fast.

Similarly at traffic lights, all cars would move off at a uniform pace at the same time so more cars would get through a particular sequence of lights. If you know cars weren't going to break red lights you also wouldn't need wait as long to ensure the way will be clear before moving off.

And if you're not driving the car you suddenly have the time to do other stuff, so even if you were 10-20 minutes quicker by driving yourself you would still have spent 60+ minutes driving. If the car does it all, you've actually freed up 60+ minutes to do other things, like order your shopping weekly shopping, which could be free to delivery as there is no need to pay a delivery driver.

Pat Mustard

beach_walker wrote: »

Hmm so no more attempted gouging, taking a longer route, feigning to have no change, racist/ignorant bile on a trip home*? Wow, what a time to be alive.



*I mean that's if they even pick take your fare to begin with...

If they bring in driverless cars, I won't hire taxis anymore, full stop. Just go in my own car, driven by whatever machine/computer is driving.

Getting insurance on a driverless car will be a whole newball game though.

Insurance fraudsters will have a field day, figuring out the blind spots/weaknesses of driverless cars.

beach_walker

The Backwards Man wrote: »

But that's not what will happen, we don't live in a dysopian 1984 where people go to work, clock in, clock out and go home. How do you get the dog to the vet? The kids to football? Your incontinent Granny to mass?

Err I really don't get it. What's the difference between any of the above and going to work/scheduled commutes?

The Backwards Man

beach_walker wrote: »

Err I really don't get it. What's the difference between any of the above and going to work/scheduled commutes?

The risk (as in damage, soilage etc) to reward ratio is much higher, Uber or whoever will charge through the nose for that type of journey or else flat out refuse it, mark my words.

m5ex9oqjawdg2i

No job is absolutely secure.

Jawgap

The Backwards Man wrote: »

I admire both your optimism and your faith in humanity.

No, it's faith in technology to make the connections and handle the transaction.

You only have to look at the success of something like ebay to see that it's a small step from selling goods to selling services (airbnb) and it's only another small step from selling services you will need in the future to services you need now (hailo) and only a small step from purchasing the service to providing the service on a peer-to-peer basis.

Earlier in the year I was in Boston for work.....uberSUV from the airport to an airbnb apartment I'd rented. Even arranged to have a bike available through spinlister for a bit of training and to get around easier.

The idea that we'll continue as either consumer or provider is becoming more outmoded - increasingly we'll be both, if we want to.

eeguy

The Backwards Man wrote: »

The risk (as in damage, soilage etc) to reward ratio is much higher, Uber or whoever will charge through the nose for that type of journey or else flat out refuse it, mark my words.

What damage?
I can rent a dublin bike and f*ck it up. But they know I was the last person to have it and they have my cc details on file so I'll be charged.
It'll be the same with a taxi, only with more cameras as evidence.

You wouldn't happen to be a taxi driver?