The beginning of the end for taxi drivers

eeguy · 18-08-2016 05:00PM #1

I've been saying for a while that the life of professional driving is numbered in years not decades.

Today it seems that Uber is testing a new fleet of autonomous cars in Pittsburg next month.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-08-18/uber-s-first-self-driving-fleet-arrives-in-pittsburgh-this-month-is06r7on

For the moment, the cars will have a driver at the wheel to monitor and record the performance of the car, and take control if the need arises.

These professionally trained engineers sit with their fingertips on the wheel, ready to take control if the car encounters an unexpected obstacle. A co-pilot, in the front passenger seat, takes notes on a laptop, and everything that happens is recorded by cameras inside and outside the car so that any glitches can be ironed out.

Uber expects that autonomous taxis will be cheaper than the cost of running your own car.

Trips will be free for the time being, rather than the standard local rate of $1.30 per mile. In the long run, Kalanick says, prices will fall so low that the per-mile cost of travel, even for long trips in rural areas, will be cheaper in a driverless Uber than in a private car.

Every day there's a new autonomous announcement. Even setbacks like the Tesla crash last month have only pushed people to invest more time and money to perfect the system.

So is this the beginning of the end for taxi drivers and professional drivers in general?
Will there be over 30,000 drivers on the dole in 10 years time?

frozenfrozen · 18-08-2016 05:03PM

When will we see autonomous cars even attempt to drive on (non motorway / good dual carriageway) irish roads.. they might be OK at driving on big straight roads in america but I doubt they'll cope well here.

BrokenArrows · 18-08-2016 05:05PM

Thats true. But they need to start somewhere.
The technology will advance very quickly once it starts being used regularly.

Taxis should be super cheap if they can operate without drivers. Operating a car is the cheapest part of a taxi. Its the drivers salary which makes it expensive. If automated taxis become a thing then there is no point in owning a car.

Once automated cars become a thing then traffic wont exist because traffic is mostly caused by human error and inefficiencies.

murpho999 · 18-08-2016 05:06PM

frozenfrozen wrote: »

When will we see autonomous cars even attempt to drive on (non motorway / good dual carriageway) irish roads.. they might be OK at driving on big straight roads in america but I doubt they'll cope well here.

Of course, as all roads in America are completely straight.

I think you need to read up on how autonomous car road sensors work.

Do you need think designers have thought of this?

Arsemageddon · 18-08-2016 05:07PM

At last - a taxi you can puke in without a soiling charge.

frozenfrozen · 18-08-2016 05:08PM

Autonomous cars will be great, there seem to be a lot of people on the road who would rather be doing anything else but driving.

Saipanne · 18-08-2016 05:08PM

frozenfrozen wrote: »

When will we see autonomous cars even attempt to drive on (non motorway / good dual carriageway) irish roads.. they might be OK at driving on big straight roads in america but I doubt they'll cope well here.

Just one post in for the Luddites to arrive.

eeguy · 18-08-2016 05:09PM

frozenfrozen wrote: »

When will we see autonomous cars even attempt to drive on (non motorway / good dual carriageway) irish roads.. they might be OK at driving on big straight roads in america but I doubt they'll cope well here.

Mining trucks drive autonomously on dirt tracks day in day out. You don't need white lines and clear weather.

Arsemageddon wrote: »

At last - a taxi you can puke in without a soiling charge.

Well you book it through an app, which presumably has your credit card details, and I'm sure they'll have cameras inside to stop people wrecking them.

I'm waiting for the taxi sex tapes.

skywanderer · 18-08-2016 05:11PM

There was a similar thread on this recently fearful for the railways once it catches on. What I really can't wait for is super capacitor technology which will give the Electric Car huge range and also enable large drones capable of carrying a few people. In the next few decades these will be the prominent methods of transportation, the days of the Internal Combustion Engine and reliance of Oil will hopefully soon be ending.

Letree · 18-08-2016 05:12PM

How will these cars get out when trying to come on to a main road from a side road. In my home town you could be sitting for half hour at rush hour to get out of some side roads unless someone lets you out. Are people likely to let a driverless car out as handy. I wonder what way they would program the car to deal with it.

bb1234567 · 18-08-2016 05:12PM

If the human driven taxis arent considerably more expensive than uber robots then Id stick with humans. I like the conversation with taxi drivers and want to support human jobs

johnruns · 18-08-2016 05:13PM

eeguy wrote: »

I've been saying for a while that the life of professional driving is numbered in years not decades.

Taxi drivers in Ireland are far from professional.

eeguy · 18-08-2016 05:15PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

If the human driven taxis arent considerably more expensive than uber robots then Id stick with humans. I like the conversation with taxi drivers and want to support human jobs

That's the real motivation here. 80% of your fare is to pay the guy driving the car.
If this takes off, then really you're only paying the running costs, plus a profit margin to the company.

Alf Stewart. · 18-08-2016 05:20PM

eeguy wrote: »

I've been saying for a while that the life of professional driving is numbered in years not decades.

Today it seems that Uber is testing a new fleet of autonomous cars in Pittsburg next month.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-08-18/uber-s-first-self-driving-fleet-arrives-in-pittsburgh-this-month-is06r7on

For the moment, the cars will have a driver at the wheel to monitor and record the performance of the car, and take control if the need arises.

Uber expects that autonomous taxis will be cheaper than the cost of running your own car.

Every day there's a new autonomous announcement. Even setbacks like the Tesla crash last month have only pushed people to invest more time and money to perfect the system.

So is this the beginning of the end for taxi drivers and professional drivers in general?
Will there be over 30,000 drivers on the dole in 10 years time?

Will they be any less creepy than the manned ones?

bb1234567 · 18-08-2016 05:20PM

eeguy wrote: »

That's the real motivation here. 80% of your fare is to pay the guy driving the car.
If this takes off, then really you're only paying the running costs, plus a profit margin to the company.

Yeh true but taxis arent that expensive really. 10-15 euro usually for me for any trip I take in Dublin with them, if they are less than 70% of human taxi driver costs then I would go with uber

The flying mouse · 18-08-2016 05:21PM

But who's going to put the world straight if we have no drivers, who we listen to now...

lertsnim · 18-08-2016 05:24PM

Johnny Cab is almost a reality. Joy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0H5k--n7sFI

Mint Sauce · 18-08-2016 05:24PM

Do we learn nothing from the movies!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCUYMM6pABw

Mint Sauce · 18-08-2016 05:25PM

Feck ya Lertsnim!

Wanderer78 · 18-08-2016 05:27PM

Maybe we 'll finally achieve the life of leisure we've been promised for decades. These automated vehicles can service our debts, right!

NoCrackHaving · 19-08-2016 11:31AM

bb1234567 wrote: »

If the human driven taxis arent considerably more expensive than uber robots then Id stick with humans. I like the conversation with taxi drivers and want to support human jobs

Automation is coming rapidly and we won't be able to hold it back. Things like taxi drivers and train drivers and call centres (this one is nearly entirely automated already) are going to be among the first but even the professions (doctors, lawyers etc.) are going to be at risk very quickly.

Frankly a citizens income may be the only way forward in the future as the ratio of number of jobs needing humans versus the number of humans dwindle substantially. Unlike past industrial revolutions there aren't going to be new jobs coming online to take over from the old ones so a general income might be the only solution.

Jawgap · 19-08-2016 11:35AM

Technology will never be able to re-create the unique BO & stale tobacco smell of a taxi in Dublin

they will, however, by more efficient at ripping you off

The Backwards Man · 19-08-2016 11:40AM

Doomed to failure.

No robot would put up with the crap taxi drivers or any other public transit operatives have to. Your pizza delivery will be autonomous, your clothes from Amazon might be too, but these tech companies are venturing into a world they know nothing about. And if you think transport will be cheaper, think again. Uber are nothing but gouging middlemen at the minute in the transport sector, imagine what they would be like when they actually have a service to sell?

razorblunt · 19-08-2016 11:40AM

Are you busy? - Affirmative.
What time are you on 'til? - Infinity

Sign me up.

razorblunt · 19-08-2016 11:41AM

The Backwards Man wrote: »

Doomed to failure.

No robot would put up with the crap taxi drivers or any other public transit operatives have to. Your pizza delivery will be autonomous, your clothes from Amazon might be too, but these tech companies are venturing into a world they know nothing about. And if you think transport will be cheaper, think again. Uber are nothing but gouging middlemen at the minute in the transport sector, imagine what they would be like when they actually have a service to sell?

Are you busy?
What time are you on 'til?

The Backwards Man · 19-08-2016 11:44AM

razorblunt wrote: »

Are you busy?
What time are you on 'til?

I'll be busier than ever when the masses discover Uber, Google and Tesla are wearing no clothes, and they've sold them a pup.

Red_Wake · 19-08-2016 11:48AM

I'm not sure they'll catch on tbh.

People habitually break driving standards [speeding, stopping in yellow boxes, pulling out of an oncoming car] in order to speed up their journey [in some cases they feel they could be waiting another 10-20 minutes on their journey by obeying the law]. Driverless cars would never do this, would they have some kind of intelligence to let other cars out of side roads in the event of traffic? Passengers wouldn't be pleased seeing their cars letting others out, but would also not to be happy about being stuck waiting at a junction because traffic has the right of way[where normally someone would, soonber or later let a car out onto the road] and instead have to wait for traffic to clear.

TL:DR - driverless won't break laws which people do habitually to help themselves.

Joe prim · 19-08-2016 11:51AM

The Carriage Office will have to insist on keeping on a few of the old (human, or nearly human) stock, just for those of us for whom a night out is never complete until we hear a driver say " Ah, the blacksandroids have this game ruined, boss"

Jawgap · 19-08-2016 11:51AM

The Backwards Man wrote: »

Doomed to failure.

No robot would put up with the crap taxi drivers or any other public transit operatives have to. Your pizza delivery will be autonomous, your clothes from Amazon might be too, but these tech companies are venturing into a world they know nothing about. And if you think transport will be cheaper, think again. Uber are nothing but gouging middlemen at the minute in the transport sector, imagine what they would be like when they actually have a service to sell?

....can't even remember the last time I took a taxi in any city with Uber available.....taxi drivers are like modern day Luddites, they think they can hold back the march of the technology when what they do is an absolute model for being delivered through socialised, technology driven processes.

Del2005 · 19-08-2016 11:52AM

eeguy wrote: »

I've been saying for a while that the life of professional driving is numbered in years not decades.

Today it seems that Uber is testing a new fleet of autonomous cars in Pittsburg next month.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-08-18/uber-s-first-self-driving-fleet-arrives-in-pittsburgh-this-month-is06r7on

For the moment, the cars will have a driver at the wheel to monitor and record the performance of the car, and take control if the need arises.

Uber expects that autonomous taxis will be cheaper than the cost of running your own car.

Every day there's a new autonomous announcement. Even setbacks like the Tesla crash last month have only pushed people to invest more time and money to perfect the system.

So is this the beginning of the end for taxi drivers and professional drivers in general?
Will there be over 30,000 drivers on the dole in 10 years time?

Until a corporation makes the "Will we kill the granny or child" decision autonomous driving will be like fusion power always a few years away. No corporation can make that decision and no government will allow it. What we'll have is autonomous vehicles on Motorways and high quality trunk roads, in towns and cities there will always be a human driving.

Saipanne · 19-08-2016 11:57AM

The Backwards Man wrote: »

Doomed to failure.

No robot would put up with the crap taxi drivers or any other public transit operatives have to. Your pizza delivery will be autonomous, your clothes from Amazon might be too, but these tech companies are venturing into a world they know nothing about. And if you think transport will be cheaper, think again. Uber are nothing but gouging middlemen at the minute in the transport sector, imagine what they would be like when they actually have a service to sell?

Apt name is apt.

The beginning of the end for taxi drivers

Comments