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FPL Chips / Wildcard Strategy 2016/17

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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,267 ✭✭✭✭ FHFC


    iroced wrote: »
    @FHFC: Do you have the data from 3 seasons ago before FPL changed the rules regarding price changes?


    From last year's graph, the first (early) WC mainly allows to save your team value from the inevitable price drops one's team is gonna experience and in terms of rises there's very little to use during your WC bar getting several players you want before they rise without raking points hit(s).

    I guess the difference between the first and second international breaks lies in all the players who already used their WC from whom transfers are taken into account by then. But it looks very marginal.

    I don't have any pre 2014/15 data. And I only have the data till GW6 from 14/15 which i collected whwn doing some comparisons here of the ratio of rises to falls.

    The 2014/15 data very closely mirrors last season.

    I do more analysis of the trends of the drops, that big spike in price drops is key as owning 3 or 4 of the wrong guys then will kill you.

    Regarding rises there is no such thing as playing the banking 0.1s game any more. Its more about having the select few high climbing players in that period cumulatively rather than what you can gain in ine week.

    Guess what the max number of double and treble rises in any GW in 2015/16 or to GW6 the year before?


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,262 ✭✭✭ iroced


    FHFC wrote: »
    Guess what the max number of double and treble rises in any GW in 2015/16 or to GW6 the year before?
    Well. Last year, I'd say there was only 3 or 4 trebles over the whole season (Mahrez, Vardy & Kane and maybe Agüero after his 5 goals - I actually don't think so since he was that expensive -) so max 1 in any given GW? Doubles? Max 3 maybe (same guys as above)?

    And I'd say figures were close the year before.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,267 ✭✭✭✭ FHFC


    iroced wrote: »
    Well. Last year, I'd say there was only 3 or 4 trebles over the whole season (Mahrez, Vardy & Kane and maybe Agüero after his 5 goals - I actually don't think so since he was that expensive -) so max 1 in any given GW? Doubles? Max 3 maybe (same guys as above)?

    And I'd say figures were close the year before.

    Max of 4 multiple rises (0.2 or 0.3) in any gameweek. As low as 2 or 3 in some of the early wildcard weeks. And considering many of those are likely to be players you'd be keeping in final WC team, the notion of chasing 0.2 rises is dead and not a reason or consideration in wildcarding.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,262 ✭✭✭ iroced


    FHFC wrote: »
    Max of 4 multiple rises (0.2 or 0.3) in any gameweek. As low as 2 or 3 in some of the early wildcard weeks. And considering many of those are likely to be players you'd be keeping in final WC team, the notion of chasing 0.2 rises is dead and not a reason or consideration in wildcarding.
    I think this notion was only really valid for one single season anyway. Before THAT season (3 years ago) and despite WC transfers being taken into account, the rises were going slower because of the weighting factors and there were not that many players you'd only get in for making a £0.1m immediate profit. I only remember doing it twice (and for one player I regretted it and got him back a coupe of GWs later :rolleyes:...).


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,267 ✭✭✭✭ FHFC


    iroced wrote: »
    I think this notion was only really valid for one single season anyway. Before THAT season (3 years ago) and despite WC transfers being taken into account, the rises were going slower because of the weighting factors and there were not that many players you'd only get in for making a £0.1m immediate profit. I only remember doing it twice (and for one player I regretted it and got him back a coupe of GWs later :rolleyes:...).

    I've no experience before 3 years ago. But when I was researching the game for that season this tactic seemed to be well established. And the thing is, many players, twitter accounts and advice websites still recommend it, suggesting that tidy profit can be made.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,262 ✭✭✭ iroced


    FHFC wrote: »
    I've no experience before 3 years ago. But when I was researching the game for that season this tactic seemed to be well established. And the thing is, many players, twitter accounts and advice websites still recommend it, suggesting that tidy profit can be made.

    Yeah but I feel it was a bit overplayed. And you can verify that with the current nonsense to still recommend it.
    If you were lucky (I mean if unusual players had an unusual blinder in the first 2 GWs) you could make 2 or 3 profits, but I can't remember many more. The other players you were happy to keep them. While 3 seasons ago, that was just huge. After 4-5 days most performing players had reached their 3rd rise and were quickly guaranteeing a 4th one on the deadline saturday evening if you were happy enough to keep them for that very GW.

    I said it already but I found, by very far, the system in place when I started playing (2010-11) to be the best one with the weighting factors.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,267 ✭✭✭✭ FHFC


    This article going live tomorrow afternoon now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,276 ✭✭✭✭ Mr.Prodston


    FHFC wrote: »

    Here's my review of your thesis:

    *opens link as the following song begins to play in my head:
    *

    giphy.gif

    *comes across mention of Jovetic and cue flashback to Pre-Gameweek 3 in 2014*
    media_httpwwwoffthepo_nHEGu.gif

    Oh and Pelle scored tonight too, it's peaked my interest with my need for a forward 7.9 or less. But then Jovetic. It's quite the pickle...
    FHFC wrote: »
    Currently trawling for Dzeko injury updates and Pellegrini quotes on Jovetic. My madness is a thorough type of madness.

    Things in his favour are that having got away with no City players v Liverpool it's not attractive to have none v Stoke, plus my captain options are mainly Rooney and Mata at present.

    You may have to stay up late for this one....
    Yeah I know. Ramsey is a viable captaincy option this week I think. A nice rest tomorrow too and it's games like Leicester away that he can come into his own.

    Part of my brain tells me if I don't act tonight then I can't make the transfer and it's out of my hands. But that's the part that probably told me Yaya was not going to be in my team ever
    Feck it! Might as well just do it and stop thinking about it, should work well enough this week anyway. It's future Mr. P's problem then :pac:
    FHFC wrote: »
    Mainly on the basis of your Mick McCarthy GIF I have also decided to give it a bash. I love Mick McCarthy GIFs. They are the best thing about the Internet.

    Jovetic (c)
    Well at least that's settled, we can blame Mick if it all goes wrong :)

    Last call on the Jovetic express tonight. All aboard. Destination: Unknown.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=91925500

    - Post GW3:
    Jovetic off - Dzeko on. Austin scores

    That captaincy and transfer went suitably tits up. Serves me right anyway I guess!
    FHFC wrote: »
    And as for the whole Jovetic thing....

    320398.jpg

    Mick works in mysterious ways.....

    Glad I did it but then my outgoing player did feck all too so only cost me the 4 points.

    Good work though. And yes I clearly have far too much time on my hands while I'm waiting to start a new job :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭ $hifty


    Good stuff FHFC. I particularly liked "Value Vampires".


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,267 ✭✭✭✭ FHFC


    FHFC wrote: »

    Not to just bump this but would have hoped for more critical feedback from the people who inspired some of this analysis. Iroced, Busts and others.

    (No offence to Mr Ps highly lucid review either :))


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,022 ✭✭✭✭ Iused2likebusts


    FHFC wrote: »
    Not to just bump this but would have hoped for more critical feedback from the people who inspired some of this analysis. Iroced, Busts and others.

    (No offence to Mr Ps highly lucid review either :))
    Its a well written article . The whole price rise and fall thing is a side of the game that although I pay attention to wouldn't be something I'm overly interested in. I've always wildcarded early so I suppose it helps me reinforce that decision.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,672 ✭✭✭ ElTel


    Its a well written article . The whole price rise and fall thing is a side of the game that although I pay attention to wouldn't be something I'm overly interested in. I've always wildcarded early so I suppose it helps me reinforce that decision.

    I liked it a lot and would conclude that the early WC has become less effective as a strategy as well. I've only followed the price changes from last season. So that makes (say) a -8 for 4 transfers after GW3 a more viable counter-strategy against the early WC.
    FHFC; What's your thoughts on the "dead team" effect on volatility as season progresses and a tweek in the transfer thresholds mid-season (I think) wrt your conclusions? Could something be gleaned from the drops that correlates with ownership of the player?


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,267 ✭✭✭✭ FHFC


    Its a well written article . The whole price rise and fall thing is a side of the game that although I pay attention to wouldn't be something I'm overly interested in. I've always wildcarded early so I suppose it helps me reinforce that decision.

    I know thats your position, I wonder would the number make you any more likely to pay more attention to it over thise first 5 weeks or so? Especially for drops. Did you hold Walcott for long last year?

    Edit: Thinking of doing a piece about points hits so might get some more arguments outa you then! ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,022 ✭✭✭✭ Iused2likebusts


    FHFC wrote: »
    I know thats your position, I wonder would the number make you any more likely to pay more attention to it over thise first 5 weeks or so? Especially for drops. Did you hold Walcott for long last year?

    Edit: Thinking of doing a piece about points hits so might get some more arguments outa you then! ;)
    Its time to take my points hit theory to the masses. I think I took one price drop max from Walcott moved him fairly quickly. Ye I'll probably pay more attention to drops . I think my inability to hold onto a wildcard accidentally protected me from price falls over the years.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,262 ✭✭✭ iroced


    FHFC wrote: »
    Not to just bump this but would have hoped for more critical feedback from the people who inspired some of this analysis. Iroced, Busts and others.

    (No offence to Mr Ps highly lucid review either :))

    To be 100% sincere, I found it a little messy in the wording at times (not sure how to phrase that) and a bit too long to go to the point, but it may very well also be me de-rusting my english after a month off :D.


    On the content, as you said, we talked about it many times on this forum and globally agree on the matter. So not only your conclusions are spot on but if they can enlight the masses :p...
    You should apply for a position in fiso ;).


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,234 ✭✭✭✭ manual_man


    GW1 bench boost. Wildcard straight after. It's an option. Just putting it out there


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,995 ✭✭✭✭ dahat


    With an abundance of midfield talent this season, should early WC be considering a 352 formation instead of the standard 343?


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,962 ✭✭✭ Shedite27


    dahat wrote: »
    With an abundance of midfield talent this season, should early WC be considering a 352 formation instead of the standard 343?
    I think so, there's so many potential options in the 5.5-7.5 range I reckon we should all have 5 midfielders we will play rather than Darren Fletcher.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,995 ✭✭✭✭ dahat


    Shedite27 wrote: »
    I think so, there's so many potential options in the 5.5-7.5 range I reckon we should all have 5 midfielders we will play rather than Darren Fletcher.

    It's something I'm going to look at later on and if i feel its worth a risk to save a WC in GW3 i might go for it.

    3rd striker has to be a 4.5 though with a tight early season budget.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,276 ✭✭✭✭ Mr.Prodston


    Diomande at 4.5 for Hull has been playing. 3 in pre-season.

    Hull have no players so he should probably play by default.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,995 ✭✭✭✭ dahat


    Why have i started this type of tinkering so late.

    Even a quick look has lead to problems, we need to see who shines in the 5.5-7.5 category over first two weeks really.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,234 ✭✭✭✭ manual_man


    Have to say i have no plan in relationship to chips and wildcard starting out. Simply hoping to get off to a good start and take it from there


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,415 ✭✭✭ sheroman01


    Talks of playing an early BB is certainly appealing. It didn't work out great last time playing it so late.

    Many here do it or looking to do it soon?

    Thinking of doing it in GW3, fixtures highlighted in yellow below. Not bad fixtures. Will also have 2 transfers to fit in better players if needed.

    r8im2t.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,672 ✭✭✭ ElTel


    sheroman01 wrote: »
    Talks of playing an early BB is certainly appealing. It didn't work out great last time playing it so late.

    Many here do it or looking to do it soon?

    Thinking of doing it in GW3, fixtures highlighted in yellow below. Not bad fixtures. Will also have 2 transfers to fit in better players if needed.

    r8im2t.png

    Is it too reliant on a 0-0 in the boro game?


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,612 ✭✭✭✭ Father Hernandez


    Originally had this in FPL Chat but probably best suited here:

    I had been until the CS comments above, 2 cleenies for 20 teams over the weekend, it's all attacking at the moment.

    Which got me thinking, I've a front 7 of:
    Hazard, Mahrez, Redmond, Firmino
    Gray, Aguero, Vardy.

    Capoue 10 points Saturday and this GW at home to Chelsea, could I get him in to replace one of the above top 7 or use the 2-5-3 chip??

    @sheroman01 I wish I had of played my BB last GW, had 20 on the bench but as ElTel pointed out it's quite over reliant on a 0-0 Boro draw. Lots of people saying they may go 4-3-3 but I can see goals on lots of games (que 10 0-0's the weekend) but would you see Capoue as a good starting midfielder?

    Least favoured chip so why not use it now?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,911 ✭✭✭ tailgunner


    That chip might be handy later in the season if you've a defensive crisis. I think it was GW36 or something last season when there were only a handful of games that week, and it was a struggle for a lot of people to field 11 players. That chip gave a bit of leeway if you had it (I didn't!).


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,022 ✭✭✭✭ Iused2likebusts


    hogey143 wrote: »
    Originally had this in FPL Chat but probably best suited here:

    I had been until the CS comments above, 2 cleenies for 20 teams over the weekend, it's all attacking at the moment.

    Which got me thinking, I've a front 7 of:
    Hazard, Mahrez, Redmond, Firmino
    Gray, Aguero, Vardy.

    Capoue 10 points Saturday and this GW at home to Chelsea, could I get him in to replace one of the above top 7 or use the 2-5-3 chip??

    @sheroman01 I wish I had of played my BB last GW, had 20 on the bench but as ElTel pointed out it's quite over reliant on a 0-0 Boro draw. Lots of people saying they may go 4-3-3 but I can see goals on lots of games (que 10 0-0's the weekend) but would you see Capoue as a good starting midfielder?

    Least favoured chip so why not use it now?

    Its a meaningless chip but I wouldn't read too much into the 2 in 20 cs stat its only one gw. I'd imagine it will be back to the norm I think its in and around 6 to 8 cs a gw. Personally I'd want my defenders to have poor fixtures and my 8th attacker to be someone better than capoue and with a better fixture to go 2 5 3.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,267 ✭✭✭✭ FHFC


    Agree that Watford vs Chelsea would not give me much incentive to spring my 4.5m mid off the bench. Capoue won't score every week.

    Its a more or less worthless chip so my strategy for it will be to hold it till I have a problem in defence. I think thats the one time you might get a tangible benefit from it. Playing it for the sake of playing it is liable to cost you points so if I don't need it I may well not use it at all.

    Say 2 of your rotating defenders have dreadful fixtures and you have 2 strong defs and one cheap with a decent fixture. Then one of the latter 3 gets injured or suspended for one week. Assuming you want the defenders you have medium term, i.e. you have good fixtures incoming and a good rotation, then thats an ideal option for AOA. Although again, if the extra attacker is only a 4.5m mid it's unlikely to do much for you. Later in the season with a strong front 8 of some kind it would be more likely to benefit.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,995 ✭✭✭✭ dahat


    Marc Wilson, Amat two playing 4.0 really does set up the GW3 Wildcard perfectly.


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