Winter 2016 2017

Moo Moo Land

I have a really good feeling about this winter. I want to be frozen!

JCX BXC

How are the charts looking now? Seems a little more marginal to me.

pauldry

Looks milder than previous

Could be a cold Northwesterly 8 or 9c

4068ac1elhodqr

One of the newspapers is saying 'negative Arctic Oscillation' and a 'very far-fetched' article headline of 'SNOW for 120 days'.

Worth bearing in mind however this 'trashy tabloid' is gearing up for a financial global crash this Thurs (triggered by robot flash trades). Italy stocks to crash by Friday, and most probably ww3 by Saturday, so take it all with a pinch(shovel) of road salt.

Will keep an eye on the 10/1 odds for Dublin airport snow on the 25th all the same.

One certainty however is the journalists over there have been smoking.

Oneiric 3

Mila Rapping Stranger wrote: »

One of the newspapers is saying 'negative Arctic Oscillation' and a 'very far-fetched' article headline of 'SNOW for 120 days'.

Picture in that bollix of an article in that bollix of a 'newspaper' suggests that Cork could be in for a good dumping of snow this winter, as man with a cap appears to be shovelling tons of the stuff right into it.

hatrickpatrick

Bit of potential Atlantic blocking already showing up on FI, stronger on the ECM, more intermittant into the GFS, but all the same this early it's pretty cool to see:

ECM:



GFS:



The GFS shows the polar vortex batting it away, but hints of high pressure trying to expand northwards remain from 240hrs to the end of the run.

Scubadevils

Mila Rapping Stranger wrote: »

One of the newspapers is saying 'negative Arctic Oscillation' and a 'very far-fetched' article headline of 'SNOW for 120 days'.

Worth bearing in mind however this 'trashy tabloid' is gearing up for a financial global crash this Thurs (triggered by robot flash trades). Italy stocks to crash by Friday, and most probably ww3 by Saturday, so take it all with a pinch(shovel) of road salt.

Will keep an eye on the 10/1 odds for Dublin airport snow on the 25th all the same.

One certainty however is the journalists over there have been smoking.

I have a very advanced BDS (bullsh*t detection system) where the algorithm seeks out keywords and detects signals of bull - aside from the newspaper itself, it found 'Exacta' and 'James Madden' - as such rendering the information to be useless! :pac:

4068ac1elhodqr

Scubadevils wrote: »

I have a very advanced BDS (bullsh*t detection system) where the algorithm seeks out keywords and detects signals of bull - aside from the newspaper itself, it found 'Exacta' and 'James Madden' - as such rendering the information to be useless! :pac:

Very true, that newspaper is prone to very high doses of science fiction. There has been a slight 'flurry' of bets on a white xmas for places like Glasgow however.

Another even trashy tabloid is separately forecasting '15 days of darkness' (like the B-movie) due to an unprecedented amount of hydrogen gas to making contact with the Sun.

I know newspaper sales are dwindling, but some of these stories are out of this world.

Oneiric 3

SyranBruens Winter 2016/2017 Forecast: Since he is not allowed to post it himself, I thought I would do him the honours:

"So I am ready to give my 1st Christmas 2016 update and I'm also going to interpret December and January into it. I said that December will be a cold month and yes I have not changed my mind since then on that prediction. There are many factors and reasons going towards a cold December, including lack of sunspots, lack of solar activity, -NAO, -AO etc. December will likely start off settled at this stage (this is my own theories / predictions here, not what the models are showing though me and the models have good agreements right now). THEN during the second week, an easterly wind will take place with potential very cold conditions. It will be the coldest spell since December 2010 and even colder than March 2013. December will continue VERY DRY and settled with this easterly wind but a low pressure looks like pushing in from the North Sea in England towards the latter half of the period (around 15th-16th). This will certainly bring snowfall if it reaches our shores or even be as cold as expected. This cold spell does not last at all though as you would expect. I said December to be a cold month BUT that was overall which shows this cold spell as very significant right now.

Towards the Christmas period then on, I'm afraid I have very bad news. The jet stream looks like being powered up VERY, VERY POWERFUL with quite a nasty, vicious explosive cyclogenesis taking place before Christmas, maybe something like the Christmas Eve storm of 1997 or St. Stephen's Day storm of 1998. Christmas Eve will bring another potent storm I'm afraid by the looks of things. Christmas Day itself is looking rather indifferent with very strong winds, northwesterlies and sunshine and showers. The rest of December is looking stormy with storm after storm after storm BUT even saying that, not even that mild which is unusual. I REALLY HOPE I'M WRONG! (but as you can see with my 2016 predictions, I've only gotten a couple of things wrong) Then we change the year, does that change the weather? YES it most certainly does with early January looking quite cold and very settled. I am predicting this exceptionally stormy second half to December because October (in most parts at least) was very settled and start of November is not looking too bad at all in terms of settled weather - also the start of December is looking very settled and ya know, nature has a very funny way of evening things out. Thus with all this settled weather, a very stormy period".

ArKl0w

Deep easterlies,followed by vicious Atlantic storms Oneiric
Shur if that's what happens,you'd love it

Pangea

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

SyranBruens Winter 2016/2017 Forecast: [/I]

Thanks for that, who is this guy? Does he have a website?

JCX BXC

Pangea wrote: »

Thanks for that, who is this guy? Does he have a website?

A Boards.ie user who is no longer able to post on the weather forum.

johndeere3350

Just cold weather really nice tho a change from the usual mucky crap nice if it was a couple of degrees colder

Lumi

Mod Note
Some current conditions/forecasts for the next few days etc moved into the General Autumn thread with the rest of the discussion on the current cold snap
Thanks

cherryghost

ArKl0w wrote: »

Deep easterlies,followed by vicious Atlantic storms Oneiric
Shur if that's what happens,you'd love it

Deep Easterly, there's a user I miss dearly. He was a realist in exciting situations

On topic, models show a rinse repeat of the cold plume staying with us for at least a week. Calm and dry in the runup to that though, ridge of high pressure will sit over us for a few days.

ArKl0w

https://www.channel4.com/news/by/liam-dutton/blogs/cold-start-to-winter-more-likely-than-normal-this-year

UK met office have updated their winter forecast and ARE expecting a colder than normal December AND January

Hooter23

ArKl0w wrote: »

https://www.channel4.com/news/by/liam-dutton/blogs/cold-start-to-winter-more-likely-than-normal-this-year

UK met office have updated their winter forecast and ARE expecting a colder than normal December AND January

So around 30% chance colder.... 30% normal... and 30% milder:)

ArKl0w

Ah no I think it's stronger than that
Translated it means,if ever there was a period in which a cold snowy period could happen it's in the circumstances we find ourselves in during December and January i.e. Opportunity knocks and after a few attempts the door will open at some point

JCX BXC

Hooter23 wrote: »

So around 30% chance colder.... 30% normal... and 30% milder:)

And the other 10%?

mickger844posts

ArKl0w wrote: »

Ah no I think it's stronger than that
Translated it means,if ever there was a period in which a cold snowy period could happen it's in the circumstances we find ourselves in during December and January i.e. Opportunity knocks and after a few attempts the door will open at some point

I agree that eventually the door will open for decent cold. When I say decent cold I mean cold that will deliver snow at sea level and last a few days at least. I think our best chance will come in December with the lather part of the month bringing back the Atlantic with a bang.
The models currently not that exciting but no real sign of a roaring Atlantic coming back anytime soon. It will just take some subtle changes for all the pieces to come together and then game on. Exciting times ahead.

Hooter23

JCX BXC wrote: »

And the other 10%?

Thats why i said around 30%;)....anyway he said in the video dont forget the other 70% which could mean we get slightly cooler average to mild winter which seems odd.

Although I would be surprised if its not a cold start to winter with the way the weather pattern has been the last couple of months....

All signs so far pointing towards a cold winter with this unusual persistant high pressure

esposito

mickger844posts wrote: »

I think our best chance will come in December with the lather part of the month bringing back the Atlantic with a bang.

Hmm what makes you so sure that the Atlantic will roar back in late December???
If anything, this could be the time where the deep cold really digs in and gives us our best chances of snow. Nobody really knows what the weather will be like in a months time!

pedigree 6

It really is an exceptional autumn for the lack of rainfall that we are experiencing.
I think we always think that rainfall and deep lows are around the corner as that is what our climate has always been here stuck out in the atlantic.
For those who think that our Winter is finished, take a look at when the severe winters we got down the years started.
http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/Winter2009-10.pdf

The earliest of the cold snowy winters started in the middle of December and 46 - 47 didn't really properly start till the new year. There was an exception of November 2010 and that was really finished by the new year. But there's still a chance.;)

I see M.T is saying about a possibility of rain around Monday the 5th December and this is showing on the GEM.



Not as much on the GFS but if you continue on the run, the low to our southwest does track up the west coast of Ireland in the next day/days after.


However still dry settled weather between now and then.:)

mickger844posts

esposito wrote: »

Hmm what makes you so sure that the Atlantic will roar back in late December???
If anything, this could be the time where the deep cold really digs in and gives us our best chances of snow. Nobody really knows what the weather will be like in a months time!

I'm not so sure, just my gut feeling. The Atlantic has been quiet the last 3 months or more so law of averages would say it has to make its presence felt at some stage. Obviously nobody can say what the weather will be like in a months time with any degree of certainty but we can all have an educated guess

ArKl0w

mickger844posts wrote: »

I'm not so sure, just my gut feeling. The Atlantic has been quiet the last 3 months or more so law of averages would say it has to make its presence felt at some stage. Obviously nobody can say what the weather will be like in a months time with any degree of certainty but we can all have an educated guess

Nature does equalise,maybe its still compensating for the incredible rainfall totals of November to march 2015/16 ?
In which case nothing too dramatic Atlantic wise may come

DOCARCH

ArKl0w wrote: »

Nature does equalise,maybe its still compensating for the incredible rainfall totals of November to march 2015/16 ?
In which case nothing too dramatic Atlantic wise may come

Also may be a sign of further weakening of the Gulf Stream.

squarecircles

WARNING:WEATHER PORN ALERT.VIEWER DISCRETION ADVISED.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41PDGhQWQOI

jacksie66

This post has been deleted.

pedigree 6

Potentially stormy for the north of the country on the 9th Dec if this came to pass.



I must say that YouTube clip that squarecircles put up was like watching that clip from Earth II where David Attenborough is commenting on the baby iguanas trying to get to the safety of the rocks without getting attacked and eaten by the snakes.
I was watching that YouTube clip and expecting the snake to attack and it would be all over. However no snake.:D