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Winter 2016 2017

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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    I was also predicting that this Winter would be a colder than normal one. December would be the coldest in 6 years, given how warm last December was. I predicted January to be colder than normal and similar to 2009 whilst February would be average or a little above. Thank you lack of sunspots and low solar activity! Let's all hope for a negative NAO now!!!

    So my Winter predictions summarized fully here

    December: Cold, dry and mostly sunny.
    January: Very dry, dull and cold.
    February: Rather wet, mild and sunny.

    The closest comparison I could find is Winter 1996/97.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    this winter has to be colder than last year, last year's winter was exceptionally mild, even by mild Irish winter standards.


  • Registered Users Posts: 28 ✭✭✭ carlo5


    Theweatheroutlook.com is also a good reference there.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,664 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    Hopefully we will receive a nice storm or two.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Carnacalla wrote: »
    Hopefully we will receive a nice storm or two.

    NO NO NO NO. SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW!!

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,141 Stealthfins


    Off shore easterly winds and plenty of swell on the west coast.
    With an 18 second period between the waves...


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    What about Autumn?

    Or does that exist still?

    September mixed but some warm or dry spells
    October seasonal...well windy n showery 13 to 16
    November -25c

    Thats me


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    pauldry wrote: »
    What about Autumn?

    Or does that exist still?

    September mixed but some warm or dry spells
    October seasonal...well windy n showery 13 to 16
    November -25c

    Thats me

    Should I start an Autumn thread then?

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,408 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    I was also predicting that this Winter would be a colder than normal one. December would be the coldest in 6 years, given how warm last December was. I predicted January to be colder than normal and similar to 2009 whilst February would be average or a little above. Thank you lack of sunspots and low solar activity! Let's all hope for a negative NAO now!!!

    So my Winter predictions summarized fully here

    December: Cold, dry and mostly sunny.
    January: Very dry, dull and cold.
    February: Rather wet, mild and sunny.

    The closest comparison I could find is Winter 1996/97.

    I hope the weather be nice and crisp for Christmas not that unseasonable warm but very wet conditions last December. Let January be January. I hope it would be pleasant in February as my farm starts getting busy just ahead of the spring season.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Jpmarn wrote: »
    I hope the weather be nice and crisp for Christmas not that unseasonable warm but very wet conditions last December. Let January be January. I hope it would be pleasant in February as my farm starts getting busy just ahead of the spring season.

    So I'm taking that you love my predictions :P:rolleyes:. If so, yeah I do hope they come true - not February though, I want it to be cold also.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,132 ✭✭✭ novarock


    A week earlier than last year! Today felt like late autumn in fairness..


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,664 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    pauldry wrote: »
    What about Autumn?

    Or does that exist still?

    As every Spring and Autumn thread, they are almost never started before the Summer and Winter threads, as they are less looked forward to. Summer is warmest winter coldest.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Can we get back on topic please to talking about any sites or charts you see that are to do with Winter 2016 / 2017?

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    A repeat of 13th January 1987 would be nice for next winter, we are overdue it at this stage!


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Gonzo wrote: »
    A repeat of 13th January 1987 would be nice for next winter, we are overdue it at this stage!

    A repeat of Winter 2010/11 would be even nicer, my favourite Winter ever. Even a repeat of Winter 2008/09 or Winter 2009/10 would do me.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 350 ✭✭ waterways


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Can we get back on topic please to talking about any sites or charts you see that are to do with Winter 2016 / 2017?

    Keep cool, brother. :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    waterways wrote: »
    Keep cool, brother. :D

    I could if Mother Nature gives us a cold Winter :rolleyes:

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,318 ✭✭✭ Mycroft H


    I was wondering how early the annual winter-mageddon thread would kick off. Not dissapointed. :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Still no change in the signs toward the weak La Nina coming. Also, solar activity keeps decreasing and the lack of sunspots continues. Still looking like a cold Winter at this stage according to these factors. I am still not sure about a negative NAO though, hopefully!

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 901 ✭✭✭ snowstorm445


    I predict that the upcoming winter will be unseasonably turbulent with a risk of premature excitement, savage disappointment, dashed hopes, and a possible outbreak of tantrums. Periods of subdued reflection to finish it off. Model watchers are advised to stock up well. :P;)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    I predict that the upcoming winter will be unseasonably turbulent with a risk of premature excitement, savage disappointment, dashed hopes, and a possible outbreak of tantrums. Periods of subdued reflection to finish it off. Model watchers are advised to stock up well. :P;)

    'Eh excuse me.... my brain is dead after reading that :cool:.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    I predict that the upcoming winter will be unseasonably turbulent with a risk of premature excitement, savage disappointment, dashed hopes, and a possible outbreak of tantrums. Periods of subdued reflection to finish it off. Model watchers are advised to stock up well. :P;)

    The only thing guaranteed this Winter is all of the above. A proper easterly only happens once or twice per decade these days if were lucky, will next winter be the one? Its now 6 years since snow flakes worth a damn has fallen this side of the country!


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Gonzo wrote: »
    The only thing guaranteed this Winter is all of the above. A proper easterly only happens once or twice per decade these days if were lucky, will next winter be the one? Its now 6 years since snow flakes worth a damn has fallen this side of the country!

    All I can say is that it will be a cold Winter, too early to say how extreme it will be.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    All I can say is that it will be a cold Winter, too early to say how extreme it will be.

    We've really paid for it since 2010 getting the raw end of the stick every winter, the west has had decent snow and Northern Ireland has had several events since. All we've had is a few March overnight or early morning snow showers or a few bits of light wet snow from the west. We deserve something special from Siberia this winter!


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Gonzo wrote: »
    We've really paid for it since 2010 getting the raw end of the stick every winter, the west has had decent snow and Northern Ireland has had several events since. All we've had is a few March overnight or early morning snow showers or a few bits of light wet snow from the west. We deserve something special from Siberia this winter!

    We paid for it the following Winter (2011/12) with very mild conditions and one of the warmest Christmas Days on record. So we totally deserve a high building over Greenland with the jet stream steering weather systems to southern Europe. I don't want the high over Scandinavia (March 2013 all over again :mad:). Maybe this time, it'd be about the snow being extreme rather than the cold?

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    hopefully we get extreme snow. Very cold weather is all well and good but if its blue skies and just hard frost then that's a complete waste of cold weather imo.

    The only way we can get decent snow is the easterly. Northerly topplers don't produce anything here more than a few isolated light showers of snizzle if were lucky and Atlantic based cold fronts all the way from Canada rarely delivers much past the Shannon and when it does, its just a sloppy wet mess which rarely sticks.

    The easterly is the real deal but even sometimes those fail to deliver. The Irish Sea unfortunately had too many shadows and some of us will always end up getting stuck in one. For me the most perfect easterly is one with wind blowing directly east with a full uninterrupted fetch from liverpool to here.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Gonzo wrote: »
    hopefully we get extreme snow. Very cold weather is all well and good but if its blue skies and just hard frost then that's a complete waste of cold weather imo.

    The only way we can get decent snow is the easterly. Northerly topplers don't produce anything here more than a few isolated light showers of snizzle if were lucky and Atlantic based cold fronts all the way from Canada rarely delivers much past the Shannon and when it does, its just a sloppy wet mess which rarely sticks.

    The easterly is the real deal but even sometimes those fail to deliver. The Irish Sea unfortunately had too many shadows and some of us will always end up getting stuck in one. For me the most perfect easterly is one with wind blowing directly east with a full uninterrupted fetch from liverpool to here.

    The northerly from December 16-25 2010 wasn't bad at all in terms of snow.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,085 ✭✭✭ Billcarson


    According to M.T. ,his post in the autumn prediction thread thinks we will get a mild autumn 1-2c above normal. Followed by a winter with little or no northern blocking ,with any cold reserved for the second half of winter or into march.

    All I can say is I hope to chist that he is wrong,but is usually not too far wide of the mark. I would not be surprised if we have to wait until the early 2020s for the next decent winter,the sun should be very inactive by then'too early yet though


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Billcarson wrote: »
    According to M.T. ,his post in the autumn prediction thread thinks we will get a mild autumn 1-2c above normal. Followed by a winter with little or no northern blocking ,with any cold reserved for the second half of winter or into march.

    All I can say is I hope to chist that he is wrong,but is usually not too far wide of the mark. I would not be surprised if we have to wait until the early 2020s for the next decent winter,the sun should be very inactive by then'too early yet though

    Yeah apart from September, me and him have very different predictions.

    I say Winter will be a cold one because of the reasons I already stated, lack of solar activity, lack of sunspots and also a negative NAO.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,085 ✭✭✭ Billcarson


    The UK Mets Glosea5 model predicting a positive nao for nov-jan. I'm getting a bad feeling about the coming winter. Another dud??? Don't know how to post the image.


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