Winter 2016 2017

Captain Snow

With the Atlantic flow looking less likely to dominate like it did last winter and El Nino now officially gone our attention turns to La Nina......

Here are some predictions for our winter 2016 2017..

http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/uk-winter-weather-forecast-201617/

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-la-nina-forecast-fall-winter-2016-2017/58306249

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter2016-17-forecast-uk.php

sryanbruen

I was also predicting that this Winter would be a colder than normal one. December would be the coldest in 6 years, given how warm last December was. I predicted January to be colder than normal and similar to 2009 whilst February would be average or a little above. Thank you lack of sunspots and low solar activity! Let's all hope for a negative NAO now!!!

So my Winter predictions summarized fully here

December: Cold, dry and mostly sunny.
January: Very dry, dull and cold.
February: Rather wet, mild and sunny.

The closest comparison I could find is Winter 1996/97.

Gonzo

this winter has to be colder than last year, last year's winter was exceptionally mild, even by mild Irish winter standards.

carlo5

Theweatheroutlook.com is also a good reference there.

JCX BXC

Hopefully we will receive a nice storm or two.

sryanbruen

Carnacalla wrote: »

Hopefully we will receive a nice storm or two.

NO NO NO NO. SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW!!

Stealthfins

Off shore easterly winds and plenty of swell on the west coast.
With an 18 second period between the waves...

pauldry

What about Autumn?

Or does that exist still?

September mixed but some warm or dry spells
October seasonal...well windy n showery 13 to 16
November -25c

Thats me

sryanbruen

pauldry wrote: »

What about Autumn?

Or does that exist still?

September mixed but some warm or dry spells
October seasonal...well windy n showery 13 to 16
November -25c

Thats me

Should I start an Autumn thread then?

Jpmarn

sryanbruen wrote: »

I was also predicting that this Winter would be a colder than normal one. December would be the coldest in 6 years, given how warm last December was. I predicted January to be colder than normal and similar to 2009 whilst February would be average or a little above. Thank you lack of sunspots and low solar activity! Let's all hope for a negative NAO now!!!

So my Winter predictions summarized fully here

December: Cold, dry and mostly sunny.
January: Very dry, dull and cold.
February: Rather wet, mild and sunny.

The closest comparison I could find is Winter 1996/97.

I hope the weather be nice and crisp for Christmas not that unseasonable warm but very wet conditions last December. Let January be January. I hope it would be pleasant in February as my farm starts getting busy just ahead of the spring season.

sryanbruen

Jpmarn wrote: »

I hope the weather be nice and crisp for Christmas not that unseasonable warm but very wet conditions last December. Let January be January. I hope it would be pleasant in February as my farm starts getting busy just ahead of the spring season.

So I'm taking that you love my predictions :P:rolleyes:. If so, yeah I do hope they come true - not February though, I want it to be cold also.

novarock

A week earlier than last year! Today felt like late autumn in fairness..

JCX BXC

pauldry wrote: »

What about Autumn?

Or does that exist still?

As every Spring and Autumn thread, they are almost never started before the Summer and Winter threads, as they are less looked forward to. Summer is warmest winter coldest.

sryanbruen

Can we get back on topic please to talking about any sites or charts you see that are to do with Winter 2016 / 2017?

Gonzo

A repeat of 13th January 1987 would be nice for next winter, we are overdue it at this stage!

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

A repeat of 13th January 1987 would be nice for next winter, we are overdue it at this stage!

A repeat of Winter 2010/11 would be even nicer, my favourite Winter ever. Even a repeat of Winter 2008/09 or Winter 2009/10 would do me.

waterways

sryanbruen wrote: »

Can we get back on topic please to talking about any sites or charts you see that are to do with Winter 2016 / 2017?

Keep cool, brother.

sryanbruen

waterways wrote: »

Keep cool, brother.

I could if Mother Nature gives us a cold Winter :rolleyes:

Mycroft H

I was wondering how early the annual winter-mageddon thread would kick off. Not dissapointed.

sryanbruen

Still no change in the signs toward the weak La Nina coming. Also, solar activity keeps decreasing and the lack of sunspots continues. Still looking like a cold Winter at this stage according to these factors. I am still not sure about a negative NAO though, hopefully!

snowstorm445

I predict that the upcoming winter will be unseasonably turbulent with a risk of premature excitement, savage disappointment, dashed hopes, and a possible outbreak of tantrums. Periods of subdued reflection to finish it off. Model watchers are advised to stock up well. :P;)

sryanbruen

snowstorm445 wrote: »

I predict that the upcoming winter will be unseasonably turbulent with a risk of premature excitement, savage disappointment, dashed hopes, and a possible outbreak of tantrums. Periods of subdued reflection to finish it off. Model watchers are advised to stock up well. :P;)

'Eh excuse me.... my brain is dead after reading that :cool:.

Gonzo

snowstorm445 wrote: »

I predict that the upcoming winter will be unseasonably turbulent with a risk of premature excitement, savage disappointment, dashed hopes, and a possible outbreak of tantrums. Periods of subdued reflection to finish it off. Model watchers are advised to stock up well. :P;)

The only thing guaranteed this Winter is all of the above. A proper easterly only happens once or twice per decade these days if were lucky, will next winter be the one? Its now 6 years since snow flakes worth a damn has fallen this side of the country!

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

The only thing guaranteed this Winter is all of the above. A proper easterly only happens once or twice per decade these days if were lucky, will next winter be the one? Its now 6 years since snow flakes worth a damn has fallen this side of the country!

All I can say is that it will be a cold Winter, too early to say how extreme it will be.

Gonzo

sryanbruen wrote: »

All I can say is that it will be a cold Winter, too early to say how extreme it will be.

We've really paid for it since 2010 getting the raw end of the stick every winter, the west has had decent snow and Northern Ireland has had several events since. All we've had is a few March overnight or early morning snow showers or a few bits of light wet snow from the west. We deserve something special from Siberia this winter!

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

We've really paid for it since 2010 getting the raw end of the stick every winter, the west has had decent snow and Northern Ireland has had several events since. All we've had is a few March overnight or early morning snow showers or a few bits of light wet snow from the west. We deserve something special from Siberia this winter!

We paid for it the following Winter (2011/12) with very mild conditions and one of the warmest Christmas Days on record. So we totally deserve a high building over Greenland with the jet stream steering weather systems to southern Europe. I don't want the high over Scandinavia (March 2013 all over again :mad:). Maybe this time, it'd be about the snow being extreme rather than the cold?

Gonzo

hopefully we get extreme snow. Very cold weather is all well and good but if its blue skies and just hard frost then that's a complete waste of cold weather imo.

The only way we can get decent snow is the easterly. Northerly topplers don't produce anything here more than a few isolated light showers of snizzle if were lucky and Atlantic based cold fronts all the way from Canada rarely delivers much past the Shannon and when it does, its just a sloppy wet mess which rarely sticks.

The easterly is the real deal but even sometimes those fail to deliver. The Irish Sea unfortunately had too many shadows and some of us will always end up getting stuck in one. For me the most perfect easterly is one with wind blowing directly east with a full uninterrupted fetch from liverpool to here.

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

hopefully we get extreme snow. Very cold weather is all well and good but if its blue skies and just hard frost then that's a complete waste of cold weather imo.

The only way we can get decent snow is the easterly. Northerly topplers don't produce anything here more than a few isolated light showers of snizzle if were lucky and Atlantic based cold fronts all the way from Canada rarely delivers much past the Shannon and when it does, its just a sloppy wet mess which rarely sticks.

The easterly is the real deal but even sometimes those fail to deliver. The Irish Sea unfortunately had too many shadows and some of us will always end up getting stuck in one. For me the most perfect easterly is one with wind blowing directly east with a full uninterrupted fetch from liverpool to here.

The northerly from December 16-25 2010 wasn't bad at all in terms of snow.

Billcarson

According to M.T. ,his post in the autumn prediction thread thinks we will get a mild autumn 1-2c above normal. Followed by a winter with little or no northern blocking ,with any cold reserved for the second half of winter or into march.

All I can say is I hope to chist that he is wrong,but is usually not too far wide of the mark. I would not be surprised if we have to wait until the early 2020s for the next decent winter,the sun should be very inactive by then'too early yet though

sryanbruen

Billcarson wrote: »

According to M.T. ,his post in the autumn prediction thread thinks we will get a mild autumn 1-2c above normal. Followed by a winter with little or no northern blocking ,with any cold reserved for the second half of winter or into march.

All I can say is I hope to chist that he is wrong,but is usually not too far wide of the mark. I would not be surprised if we have to wait until the early 2020s for the next decent winter,the sun should be very inactive by then'too early yet though

Yeah apart from September, me and him have very different predictions.

I say Winter will be a cold one because of the reasons I already stated, lack of solar activity, lack of sunspots and also a negative NAO.

Billcarson

The UK Mets Glosea5 model predicting a positive nao for nov-jan. I'm getting a bad feeling about the coming winter. Another dud??? Don't know how to post the image.

sryanbruen

Billcarson wrote: »

The UK Mets Glosea5 model predicting a positive nao for nov-jan. I'm getting a bad feeling about the coming winter. Another dud??? Don't know how to post the image.

UHHHHHH

sryanbruen

Though I said Winter 2016/17 to be colder than normal, I didn't say there would be any snowfall and I'm not changing my prediction. Sorry there won't be any this year either.

nacho libre

M.T. Cranium's thinking is probably somewhat influenced by the Glosea5 model winter prediction as well of course by his own research method.


One thing that seemed to facilitate heavy snow showers from an unusual source( westerlies) in recent years was that unusually cold blob of water in the Atlantic. If that has ceased then it probably will be a crappy winter with a positive NAO. Although there can be exceptions even with a positive NAO sometimes.

pauldry

I think this Winter will be mild and stormy and wet.

Some short cold spurts in January and February

The sea is very warm and wont cool in time.

Just my opinion.

I know prediction is wrong.

It always is

Gonzo

This winter will probably be another dud, same as the past 5 winters.

JCX BXC

Gonzo wrote: »

This winter will probably be another dud, same as the past 5 winters.

A did being a winter that isn't one in a hundred?

Gonzo

Carnacalla wrote: »

A did being a winter that isn't one in a hundred?

A dud being a winter that doesn't result in few full days of lying snow in the east. It doesn't have to be 2010 style but even a few days of snow showers with lying snow for 2 days is all I ask. This used to happen almost yearly back in the 80s. At my location and many locations in the east away from Monaghan/Cavan there hasn't been much in the way of lying snow since Christmas Day 2010. All we've had since is some sleety, wet snow mess from the west which doesnt stay for much longer than 30 minutes or over night snow showers in March which melted by 11am - none of that count's as a proper spell imo.

The only time snow from the west really works here is an extremely rare event where already very cold air is established from the east or north, and a slow moving front moves in from the Atlantic and turns to heavy snow over the east and stays as snow. Happened to amazing effect in 1982 and I think also 1987.

This happens more often in the UK, but usually in Ireland it starts off as sleety rain and doesn't be long turning back to rain, it's rare that it starts as snow and ends as snow.

Hooter23

pauldry wrote: »

I think this Winter will be mild and stormy and wet.

Some short cold spurts in January and February

The sea is very warm and wont cool in time.

Just my opinion.

I know prediction is wrong.

It always is

Maybe its a good thing that the sea is warm... we had record cold water in the atlantic last year and we ended up with a very mild winter with very mild record temperatures in december...

Lucreto

If we get a few days of snow I would consider the Winter a smashing success with another 2010 event being the cherry on the cake.

I would settle with a lot of cold bright frosty days with the frost lingering around all day. There have been very few frost mornings since 2010. I counted less than 100 in the last 6 years. We have had too many mild wet days a little break would be nice for a change.

Hooter23 wrote: »

Maybe its a good thing that the sea is warm... we had record cold water in the atlantic last year and we ended up with a very mild winter with very mild record temperatures in december...

We also had a very strong El Nino which influenced the entire Winter.


We are expecting an La Nina this year but it won't be anything to write home about. They are predicting a low to moderate La Nina this year.

Gonzo

Lucreto wrote: »

If we get a few days of snow I would consider the Winter a smashing success with another 2010 event being the cherry on the cake.

I would settle with a lot of cold bright frosty days with the frost lingering around all day. There have been very few frost mornings since 2010. I counted less than 100 in the last 6 years. We have had too many mild wet days a little break would be nice for a change.



We also had a very strong El Nino which influenced the entire Winter.


We are expecting an La Nina this year but it won't be anything to write home about. They are predicting a low to moderate La Nina this year.

I think I saw frost only 3, maybe 4 times during the entire winter 2015/206. The thing I remember most was it been 14C at 3am several times last December. The cold 'blob' over the north atlantic had no influence on snow here any year.

hatrickpatrick

This La Nina looks to be a serious disappointment.



Compare that graphic to what the Pacific's SSTs looked like this time last year when El Nino was in full swing:



Hard to say if it can have much of an impact on Ireland's weather, particularly since it's coinciding with what's being dubbed "The Blob (that's the horseshoe shaped band of unusually warm water off the northwestern coast of the US and in the gulf of Alaska) - but at least it should mean that the horrendously stormy winter we had last year thanks to El Nino shouldn't recur.

Of course, the SST image I linked to above will update automatically, so if La Nina does suddenly turn into an epic blowout later in the winter, this post will end up looking mightily silly

One potentially good sign is that the "cold blob" we've been talking about in the North Atlantic for the last couple of years seems to have largely dissipated. The anomaly for the North Atlantic is largely neutral, and with far more pools of warmer than average water than cold. Again, compare that to this time last year on the above charts.

nacho libre

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/1/p/Forecast-temp-OND-v1.pdf[/QUOTE]

"Signals from the long range
prediction systems from global forecast centres all show this development,
with a weakening of westerly winds through November and December a
common theme. Such an atmospheric pattern would result in an increased
incidence of winds from a northerly or easterly direction

-



As a result, atmospheric circulation patterns would favour colder than average temperatures, particularly through November and into December as
the polar regions begin to cool."




Nice. Very nice - if it pans out this way. of course it doesn't guarantee snow but it increases the odds.

MidMan25

nacho libre wrote: »

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/1/p/Forecast-temp-OND-v1.pdf

"Signals from the long range
prediction systems from global forecast centres all show this development,
with a weakening of westerly winds through November and December a
common theme. Such an atmospheric pattern would result in an increased
incidence of winds from a northerly or easterly direction

-



As a result, atmospheric circulation patterns would favour colder than average temperatures, particularly through November and into December as
the polar regions begin to cool."




Nice. Very nice - if it pans out this way. of course it doesn't guarantee snow but it increased the odds.[/quote]

Seasonal temperatures in December would be welcomed after last year!

JCX BXC

What's the start of November look like?

lapua20grain

MidMan25 wrote: »

"Signals from the long range
prediction systems from global forecast centres all show this development,
with a weakening of westerly winds through November and December a
common theme. Such an atmospheric pattern would result in an increased
incidence of winds from a northerly or easterly direction

-



As a result, atmospheric circulation patterns would favour colder than average temperatures, particularly through November and into December as
the polar regions begin to cool."




Nice. Very nice - if it pans out this way. of course it doesn't guarantee snow but it increased the odds.

Seasonal temperatures in December would be welcomed after last year![/QUOTE]

Definitely

Musicman2000

Im sure Peter(MT) will post an update for Ireland but these are his thoughts over on Netweather for the coming Winter.

Winter 2016-17 outlook

My research model is indicating that the first half of the winter is likely to be colder than normal, and the second half milder. CET forecasts follow:

OCT 12.8 (very mild)

NOV 6.0 (slightly cooler than recent averages)

DEC 3.8 (somewhat colder than normal)

JAN 5.5 (rather mild, second half may be near 7.5)

FEB 4.5 (average).

MAR 8.0 (mild/warm)

In terms of the general circulation, I am expecting rather strong blocking to develop through November after perhaps a rather stormy first half, and spells of wintry cold may develop from late November through mid-December in particular, then this block will rapidly decay around New Years to yield a much milder zonal and sometimes stormy pattern in January. That will then relax to rather bland patterns in February and a southerly type of blocking by March.

Best chance of snowfall would obviously be mid-December, and with a full moon / northern max event 14-15 Dec, that's when I would expect to see possible snowfall events. I think that snow would be followed by the coldest weather of the season then some gradually milder conditions through the Christmas-New Years period.

The most likely time for stormy conditions to develop would be late December, mid January and late January around the times of the new moons and mid-January full moon. This theory is partly established by frequency studies but also a second unrelated factor happens to overlap this winter with the lunar events.

February may turn out rather dry if this overall scenario is valid, with storminess more likely in the Mediterranean and Balkans.

In North America, the winter is likely to be quite cold in general, with heavy snowfalls likely for the east coast of the United States and also in the Midwest states.

All forecasts are based on numerical index values from research factors and there is an assumption that teleconnections will be incorporated. However, with the Pacific in a sort of weak La Nina or neutral pattern, no strong indications are available there. In the North Atlantic, the tendency has been for a cold pool to be focused more to the west-central longitudes and this at least can reinforce both the blocking scenario and the active phase mid-winter. I would expect that SST anomalies around Britain might fluctuate more as a response than a driver of these trends. Solar activity of course is rather low but I only see correlations over long-period averages rather than year to year.

Confidence is somewhat lower in this outlook than some others I have published, for the reason that the blended index values are in two camps during both the colder and milder episodes. What I'm saying there is that the cold may be more extreme than indicated, and the mild spell could be delayed as a result. I have given some rather conservative values for the temperature trend as a result, the Dec 3.8 could turn out as low as 2.5 if snow cover persists.

hatrickpatrick

That sounds relatively promising compared to recent years I must say.

When do we generally start seeing the polar vortex power up on the models? I've always jumped on board the weather train too late in the season to see the beginning of it.

nacho libre

What bliss it will be, after too long of an absence, for the majority here, if the following words are uttered by forecasters this December, heavy snow showers from the east penetrating well inland due to a stiff east to north easterly breeze.

lapua20grain

nacho libre wrote: »

What bliss it will be, after too long of an absence, for the majority here, if the following words are uttered by forecasters this December, heavy snow showers from the east pentrating well inland due to a stiff east to north easterly breeze.

gives you a shiver down the spine

snaps

We had our first snowfall last night in Poland. Currently 1c and snowing but not settling as ground wet.