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Winter 2016 2017

24

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Billcarson wrote: »
    The UK Mets Glosea5 model predicting a positive nao for nov-jan. I'm getting a bad feeling about the coming winter. Another dud??? Don't know how to post the image.

    UHHHHHH


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Though I said Winter 2016/17 to be colder than normal, I didn't say there would be any snowfall and I'm not changing my prediction. Sorry there won't be any this year either.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    M.T. Cranium's thinking is probably somewhat influenced by the Glosea5 model winter prediction as well of course by his own research method.


    One thing that seemed to facilitate heavy snow showers from an unusual source( westerlies) in recent years was that unusually cold blob of water in the Atlantic. If that has ceased then it probably will be a crappy winter with a positive NAO. Although there can be exceptions even with a positive NAO sometimes.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    I think this Winter will be mild and stormy and wet.

    Some short cold spurts in January and February

    The sea is very warm and wont cool in time.

    Just my opinion.

    I know prediction is wrong.

    It always is


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    This winter will probably be another dud, same as the past 5 winters.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,079 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Gonzo wrote: »
    This winter will probably be another dud, same as the past 5 winters.

    A did being a winter that isn't one in a hundred?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Carnacalla wrote: »
    A did being a winter that isn't one in a hundred?

    A dud being a winter that doesn't result in few full days of lying snow in the east. It doesn't have to be 2010 style but even a few days of snow showers with lying snow for 2 days is all I ask. This used to happen almost yearly back in the 80s. At my location and many locations in the east away from Monaghan/Cavan there hasn't been much in the way of lying snow since Christmas Day 2010. All we've had since is some sleety, wet snow mess from the west which doesnt stay for much longer than 30 minutes or over night snow showers in March which melted by 11am - none of that count's as a proper spell imo.

    The only time snow from the west really works here is an extremely rare event where already very cold air is established from the east or north, and a slow moving front moves in from the Atlantic and turns to heavy snow over the east and stays as snow. Happened to amazing effect in 1982 and I think also 1987.

    This happens more often in the UK, but usually in Ireland it starts off as sleety rain and doesn't be long turning back to rain, it's rare that it starts as snow and ends as snow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,480 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    pauldry wrote: »
    I think this Winter will be mild and stormy and wet.

    Some short cold spurts in January and February

    The sea is very warm and wont cool in time.

    Just my opinion.

    I know prediction is wrong.

    It always is


    Maybe its a good thing that the sea is warm... we had record cold water in the atlantic last year and we ended up with a very mild winter with very mild record temperatures in december...


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    If we get a few days of snow I would consider the Winter a smashing success with another 2010 event being the cherry on the cake.

    I would settle with a lot of cold bright frosty days with the frost lingering around all day. There have been very few frost mornings since 2010. I counted less than 100 in the last 6 years. We have had too many mild wet days a little break would be nice for a change.
    Hooter23 wrote: »
    Maybe its a good thing that the sea is warm... we had record cold water in the atlantic last year and we ended up with a very mild winter with very mild record temperatures in december...

    We also had a very strong El Nino which influenced the entire Winter.


    We are expecting an La Nina this year but it won't be anything to write home about. They are predicting a low to moderate La Nina this year.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Lucreto wrote: »
    If we get a few days of snow I would consider the Winter a smashing success with another 2010 event being the cherry on the cake.

    I would settle with a lot of cold bright frosty days with the frost lingering around all day. There have been very few frost mornings since 2010. I counted less than 100 in the last 6 years. We have had too many mild wet days a little break would be nice for a change.



    We also had a very strong El Nino which influenced the entire Winter.


    We are expecting an La Nina this year but it won't be anything to write home about. They are predicting a low to moderate La Nina this year.

    I think I saw frost only 3, maybe 4 times during the entire winter 2015/206. The thing I remember most was it been 14C at 3am several times last December. The cold 'blob' over the north atlantic had no influence on snow here any year.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    This La Nina looks to be a serious disappointment.

    gl_anom_mm.gif

    Compare that graphic to what the Pacific's SSTs looked like this time last year when El Nino was in full swing:

    gl_anom_mm.gif

    Hard to say if it can have much of an impact on Ireland's weather, particularly since it's coinciding with what's being dubbed "The Blob (that's the horseshoe shaped band of unusually warm water off the northwestern coast of the US and in the gulf of Alaska) - but at least it should mean that the horrendously stormy winter we had last year thanks to El Nino shouldn't recur.

    Of course, the SST image I linked to above will update automatically, so if La Nina does suddenly turn into an epic blowout later in the winter, this post will end up looking mightily silly :D

    One potentially good sign is that the "cold blob" we've been talking about in the North Atlantic for the last couple of years seems to have largely dissipated. The anomaly for the North Atlantic is largely neutral, and with far more pools of warmer than average water than cold. Again, compare that to this time last year on the above charts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/1/p/Forecast-temp-OND-v1.pdf[/QUOTE]

    "Signals from the long range
    prediction systems from global forecast centres all show this development,
    with a weakening of westerly winds through November and December a
    common theme. Such an atmospheric pattern would result in an increased
    incidence of winds from a northerly or easterly direction

    -



    As a result, atmospheric circulation patterns would favour colder than average temperatures, particularly through November and into December as
    the polar regions begin to cool."




    Nice. Very nice - if it pans out this way. of course it doesn't guarantee snow but it increases the odds.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭MidMan25



    "Signals from the long range
    prediction systems from global forecast centres all show this development,
    with a weakening of westerly winds through November and December a
    common theme. Such an atmospheric pattern would result in an increased
    incidence of winds from a northerly or easterly direction

    -



    As a result, atmospheric circulation patterns would favour colder than average temperatures, particularly through November and into December as
    the polar regions begin to cool."




    Nice. Very nice - if it pans out this way. of course it doesn't guarantee snow but it increased the odds.[/quote]

    Seasonal temperatures in December would be welcomed after last year!


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,079 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    What's the start of November look like?


  • Registered Users Posts: 820 ✭✭✭lapua20grain


    MidMan25 wrote: »
    "Signals from the long range
    prediction systems from global forecast centres all show this development,
    with a weakening of westerly winds through November and December a
    common theme. Such an atmospheric pattern would result in an increased
    incidence of winds from a northerly or easterly direction

    -



    As a result, atmospheric circulation patterns would favour colder than average temperatures, particularly through November and into December as
    the polar regions begin to cool."




    Nice. Very nice - if it pans out this way. of course it doesn't guarantee snow but it increased the odds.

    Seasonal temperatures in December would be welcomed after last year![/QUOTE]

    Definitely


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    Im sure Peter(MT) will post an update for Ireland but these are his thoughts over on Netweather for the coming Winter.

    Winter 2016-17 outlook

    My research model is indicating that the first half of the winter is likely to be colder than normal, and the second half milder. CET forecasts follow:

    OCT 12.8 (very mild)

    NOV 6.0 (slightly cooler than recent averages)

    DEC 3.8 (somewhat colder than normal)

    JAN 5.5 (rather mild, second half may be near 7.5)

    FEB 4.5 (average).

    MAR 8.0 (mild/warm)

    In terms of the general circulation, I am expecting rather strong blocking to develop through November after perhaps a rather stormy first half, and spells of wintry cold may develop from late November through mid-December in particular, then this block will rapidly decay around New Years to yield a much milder zonal and sometimes stormy pattern in January. That will then relax to rather bland patterns in February and a southerly type of blocking by March.

    Best chance of snowfall would obviously be mid-December, and with a full moon / northern max event 14-15 Dec, that's when I would expect to see possible snowfall events. I think that snow would be followed by the coldest weather of the season then some gradually milder conditions through the Christmas-New Years period.

    The most likely time for stormy conditions to develop would be late December, mid January and late January around the times of the new moons and mid-January full moon. This theory is partly established by frequency studies but also a second unrelated factor happens to overlap this winter with the lunar events.

    February may turn out rather dry if this overall scenario is valid, with storminess more likely in the Mediterranean and Balkans.

    In North America, the winter is likely to be quite cold in general, with heavy snowfalls likely for the east coast of the United States and also in the Midwest states.

    All forecasts are based on numerical index values from research factors and there is an assumption that teleconnections will be incorporated. However, with the Pacific in a sort of weak La Nina or neutral pattern, no strong indications are available there. In the North Atlantic, the tendency has been for a cold pool to be focused more to the west-central longitudes and this at least can reinforce both the blocking scenario and the active phase mid-winter. I would expect that SST anomalies around Britain might fluctuate more as a response than a driver of these trends. Solar activity of course is rather low but I only see correlations over long-period averages rather than year to year.

    Confidence is somewhat lower in this outlook than some others I have published, for the reason that the blended index values are in two camps during both the colder and milder episodes. What I'm saying there is that the cold may be more extreme than indicated, and the mild spell could be delayed as a result. I have given some rather conservative values for the temperature trend as a result, the Dec 3.8 could turn out as low as 2.5 if snow cover persists.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    That sounds relatively promising compared to recent years I must say.

    When do we generally start seeing the polar vortex power up on the models? I've always jumped on board the weather train too late in the season to see the beginning of it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    What bliss it will be, after too long of an absence, for the majority here, if the following words are uttered by forecasters this December, heavy snow showers from the east penetrating well inland due to a stiff east to north easterly breeze.


  • Registered Users Posts: 820 ✭✭✭lapua20grain


    What bliss it will be, after too long of an absence, for the majority here, if the following words are uttered by forecasters this December, heavy snow showers from the east pentrating well inland due to a stiff east to north easterly breeze.
    gives you a shiver down the spine :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    We had our first snowfall last night in Poland. Currently 1c and snowing but not settling as ground wet.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Woo!! BIG Scandi high!!
    gfs-0-114_vkd9.png
    Bring on the beast from the EAST!...
    gfs-1-114_zct6.png


    .... oh wait..... its the beginning of October... DAMNIT!


    Lets hope for a repeat in two months time! :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    Yippee! Accu Weather has just issued its winter forecast and the great news is that Britain & Ireland are in for another mild and wet winter. Frequent storms. A lot of wind. A lot of rain. The Atlantic storms should keep any decent cold from our shores. Flooding problems likely. These guys have been on the money the past few years with their winter forecasts. Umbrellas and wellies at the ready so! :D:cool:

    D

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-2016-2017-stormy-uk-mild-wet-france-germany/60378723


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 ✭✭✭pedigree 6


    derekon wrote: »
    Yippee! Accu Weather has just issued its winter forecast and the great news is that Britain & Ireland are in for another mild and wet winter. Frequent storms. A lot of wind. A lot of rain. The Atlantic storms should keep any decent cold from our shores. Flooding problems likely. These guys have been on the money the past few years with their winter forecasts. Umbrellas and wellies at the ready so! :D:cool:

    D

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-2016-2017-stormy-uk-mild-wet-france-germany/60378723

    I'm in shock.:eek:

    Everyone else is saying the opposite.


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,079 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Can we turn this into a general discussion thread?


  • Registered Users Posts: 48,129 ✭✭✭✭km79


    pedigree 6 wrote: »
    I'm in shock.:eek:

    Everyone else is saying the opposite.

    I hope everyone else is right
    Don't want more flooding


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 750 ✭✭✭Harvey Normal


    Two of these type winters in a row and I'm emigrating.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 ✭✭✭pedigree 6


    Carnacalla wrote: »
    Can we turn this into a general discussion thread?

    Apologies.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    derekon wrote: »
    Yippee! Accu Weather has just issued its winter forecast and the great news is that Britain & Ireland are in for another mild and wet winter. Frequent storms. A lot of wind. A lot of rain. The Atlantic storms should keep any decent cold from our shores. Flooding problems likely. These guys have been on the money the past few years with their winter forecasts. Umbrellas and wellies at the ready so! :D:cool:

    D

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-2016-2017-stormy-uk-mild-wet-france-germany/60378723

    Unfortunately roughly 9 times out to 10 that is what we get and I believe it. A decent snow event ( more than 3 inches of snow lying for 24 hours) is almost a once in a decade event for most parts of Ireland.


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,079 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    pedigree 6 wrote: »
    Apologies.

    Tbh I think the thread would be much better as a chat one at this stage.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    There's no evidence yet of a nasty October on any of the models... What exactly is that prediction based on?

    The polar vortex might start up already over the next few weeks according to FI, so things are about to get interesting at least. But on the FI GFS, there really isn't any particularly nasty or stormy weather on the horizon for us as far as October 22.


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