Winter 2016 2017

Captain Snow · 19-07-2016 8:55pm #1

With the Atlantic flow looking less likely to dominate like it did last winter and El Nino now officially gone our attention turns to La Nina......

Here are some predictions for our winter 2016 2017..

http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/uk-winter-weather-forecast-201617/

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-la-nina-forecast-fall-winter-2016-2017/58306249

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter2016-17-forecast-uk.php

sryanbruen · 20-07-2016 10:00am

I was also predicting that this Winter would be a colder than normal one. December would be the coldest in 6 years, given how warm last December was. I predicted January to be colder than normal and similar to 2009 whilst February would be average or a little above. Thank you lack of sunspots and low solar activity! Let's all hope for a negative NAO now!!!

So my Winter predictions summarized fully here

December: Cold, dry and mostly sunny.
January: Very dry, dull and cold.
February: Rather wet, mild and sunny.

The closest comparison I could find is Winter 1996/97.

Gonzo · 20-07-2016 11:34am

this winter has to be colder than last year, last year's winter was exceptionally mild, even by mild Irish winter standards.

carlo5 · 20-07-2016 11:36am

Theweatheroutlook.com is also a good reference there.

JCX BXC · 21-07-2016 12:09pm

Hopefully we will receive a nice storm or two.

sryanbruen · 21-07-2016 12:13pm

Carnacalla wrote: »

Hopefully we will receive a nice storm or two.

NO NO NO NO. SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW!!

Stealthfins · 22-07-2016 10:55am

Off shore easterly winds and plenty of swell on the west coast.
With an 18 second period between the waves...

pauldry · 22-07-2016 11:03am

What about Autumn?

Or does that exist still?

September mixed but some warm or dry spells
October seasonal...well windy n showery 13 to 16
November -25c

Thats me

sryanbruen · 22-07-2016 11:04am

pauldry wrote: »

What about Autumn?

Or does that exist still?

September mixed but some warm or dry spells
October seasonal...well windy n showery 13 to 16
November -25c

Thats me

Should I start an Autumn thread then?

Jpmarn · 22-07-2016 3:56pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

I was also predicting that this Winter would be a colder than normal one. December would be the coldest in 6 years, given how warm last December was. I predicted January to be colder than normal and similar to 2009 whilst February would be average or a little above. Thank you lack of sunspots and low solar activity! Let's all hope for a negative NAO now!!!

So my Winter predictions summarized fully here

December: Cold, dry and mostly sunny.
January: Very dry, dull and cold.
February: Rather wet, mild and sunny.

The closest comparison I could find is Winter 1996/97.

I hope the weather be nice and crisp for Christmas not that unseasonable warm but very wet conditions last December. Let January be January. I hope it would be pleasant in February as my farm starts getting busy just ahead of the spring season.

sryanbruen · 22-07-2016 6:14pm

Jpmarn wrote: »

I hope the weather be nice and crisp for Christmas not that unseasonable warm but very wet conditions last December. Let January be January. I hope it would be pleasant in February as my farm starts getting busy just ahead of the spring season.

So I'm taking that you love my predictions :P:rolleyes:. If so, yeah I do hope they come true - not February though, I want it to be cold also.

novarock · 25-07-2016 10:07pm

A week earlier than last year! Today felt like late autumn in fairness..

JCX BXC · 25-07-2016 11:16pm

pauldry wrote: »

What about Autumn?

Or does that exist still?

As every Spring and Autumn thread, they are almost never started before the Summer and Winter threads, as they are less looked forward to. Summer is warmest winter coldest.

sryanbruen · 25-07-2016 11:20pm

Can we get back on topic please to talking about any sites or charts you see that are to do with Winter 2016 / 2017?

Gonzo · 27-07-2016 11:22pm

A repeat of 13th January 1987 would be nice for next winter, we are overdue it at this stage!

sryanbruen · 27-07-2016 11:28pm

Gonzo wrote: »

A repeat of 13th January 1987 would be nice for next winter, we are overdue it at this stage!

A repeat of Winter 2010/11 would be even nicer, my favourite Winter ever. Even a repeat of Winter 2008/09 or Winter 2009/10 would do me.

waterways · 31-07-2016 9:38pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Can we get back on topic please to talking about any sites or charts you see that are to do with Winter 2016 / 2017?

Keep cool, brother.

sryanbruen · 31-07-2016 9:49pm

waterways wrote: »

Keep cool, brother.

I could if Mother Nature gives us a cold Winter :rolleyes:

Mycroft H · 02-08-2016 3:40pm

I was wondering how early the annual winter-mageddon thread would kick off. Not dissapointed.

sryanbruen · 12-08-2016 5:49pm

Still no change in the signs toward the weak La Nina coming. Also, solar activity keeps decreasing and the lack of sunspots continues. Still looking like a cold Winter at this stage according to these factors. I am still not sure about a negative NAO though, hopefully!

snowstorm445 · 13-08-2016 9:10pm

I predict that the upcoming winter will be unseasonably turbulent with a risk of premature excitement, savage disappointment, dashed hopes, and a possible outbreak of tantrums. Periods of subdued reflection to finish it off. Model watchers are advised to stock up well. :P;)

sryanbruen · 13-08-2016 9:13pm

snowstorm445 wrote: »

I predict that the upcoming winter will be unseasonably turbulent with a risk of premature excitement, savage disappointment, dashed hopes, and a possible outbreak of tantrums. Periods of subdued reflection to finish it off. Model watchers are advised to stock up well. :P;)

'Eh excuse me.... my brain is dead after reading that :cool:.

Gonzo · 14-08-2016 12:00am

snowstorm445 wrote: »

I predict that the upcoming winter will be unseasonably turbulent with a risk of premature excitement, savage disappointment, dashed hopes, and a possible outbreak of tantrums. Periods of subdued reflection to finish it off. Model watchers are advised to stock up well. :P;)

The only thing guaranteed this Winter is all of the above. A proper easterly only happens once or twice per decade these days if were lucky, will next winter be the one? Its now 6 years since snow flakes worth a damn has fallen this side of the country!

sryanbruen · 14-08-2016 12:03am

Gonzo wrote: »

The only thing guaranteed this Winter is all of the above. A proper easterly only happens once or twice per decade these days if were lucky, will next winter be the one? Its now 6 years since snow flakes worth a damn has fallen this side of the country!

All I can say is that it will be a cold Winter, too early to say how extreme it will be.

Gonzo · 14-08-2016 12:11am

sryanbruen wrote: »

All I can say is that it will be a cold Winter, too early to say how extreme it will be.

We've really paid for it since 2010 getting the raw end of the stick every winter, the west has had decent snow and Northern Ireland has had several events since. All we've had is a few March overnight or early morning snow showers or a few bits of light wet snow from the west. We deserve something special from Siberia this winter!

sryanbruen · 14-08-2016 11:17am

Gonzo wrote: »

We've really paid for it since 2010 getting the raw end of the stick every winter, the west has had decent snow and Northern Ireland has had several events since. All we've had is a few March overnight or early morning snow showers or a few bits of light wet snow from the west. We deserve something special from Siberia this winter!

We paid for it the following Winter (2011/12) with very mild conditions and one of the warmest Christmas Days on record. So we totally deserve a high building over Greenland with the jet stream steering weather systems to southern Europe. I don't want the high over Scandinavia (March 2013 all over again :mad:). Maybe this time, it'd be about the snow being extreme rather than the cold?

Gonzo · 14-08-2016 11:24am

hopefully we get extreme snow. Very cold weather is all well and good but if its blue skies and just hard frost then that's a complete waste of cold weather imo.

The only way we can get decent snow is the easterly. Northerly topplers don't produce anything here more than a few isolated light showers of snizzle if were lucky and Atlantic based cold fronts all the way from Canada rarely delivers much past the Shannon and when it does, its just a sloppy wet mess which rarely sticks.

The easterly is the real deal but even sometimes those fail to deliver. The Irish Sea unfortunately had too many shadows and some of us will always end up getting stuck in one. For me the most perfect easterly is one with wind blowing directly east with a full uninterrupted fetch from liverpool to here.

sryanbruen · 14-08-2016 11:27am

Gonzo wrote: »

hopefully we get extreme snow. Very cold weather is all well and good but if its blue skies and just hard frost then that's a complete waste of cold weather imo.

The only way we can get decent snow is the easterly. Northerly topplers don't produce anything here more than a few isolated light showers of snizzle if were lucky and Atlantic based cold fronts all the way from Canada rarely delivers much past the Shannon and when it does, its just a sloppy wet mess which rarely sticks.

The easterly is the real deal but even sometimes those fail to deliver. The Irish Sea unfortunately had too many shadows and some of us will always end up getting stuck in one. For me the most perfect easterly is one with wind blowing directly east with a full uninterrupted fetch from liverpool to here.

The northerly from December 16-25 2010 wasn't bad at all in terms of snow.

Billcarson · 19-08-2016 9:49am

According to M.T. ,his post in the autumn prediction thread thinks we will get a mild autumn 1-2c above normal. Followed by a winter with little or no northern blocking ,with any cold reserved for the second half of winter or into march.

All I can say is I hope to chist that he is wrong,but is usually not too far wide of the mark. I would not be surprised if we have to wait until the early 2020s for the next decent winter,the sun should be very inactive by then'too early yet though

sryanbruen · 19-08-2016 11:45am

Billcarson wrote: »

According to M.T. ,his post in the autumn prediction thread thinks we will get a mild autumn 1-2c above normal. Followed by a winter with little or no northern blocking ,with any cold reserved for the second half of winter or into march.

All I can say is I hope to chist that he is wrong,but is usually not too far wide of the mark. I would not be surprised if we have to wait until the early 2020s for the next decent winter,the sun should be very inactive by then'too early yet though

Yeah apart from September, me and him have very different predictions.

I say Winter will be a cold one because of the reasons I already stated, lack of solar activity, lack of sunspots and also a negative NAO.

Billcarson · 21-08-2016 10:37am

The UK Mets Glosea5 model predicting a positive nao for nov-jan. I'm getting a bad feeling about the coming winter. Another dud??? Don't know how to post the image.

Winter 2016 2017

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