Brexit Irish property price for sale crash again

Bob24

themainman2010 wrote: »

Guys these funds bought lots of Irish Property so guess what they will be selling? Yes Loads of Irish property :-(

Google it :-)

Would you have any link giving more details?

Graham

themainman2010 wrote: »

Guys these funds bought lots of Irish Property so guess what they will be selling? Yes Loads of Irish property :-(

Google it :-)

Which 'guys' bought lots of Irish Property?

I tried searching Google for 'guys that bought Irish property' and got 98million results.

It would be useful if you clarified, who the 'guys were' and what you think the effect of Brexit may be on their purchases or the Irish property market.

draiochtanois

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conorhal

Lumen wrote: »

The best time to buy in recent years was when everyone was panicking about the Eurozone crisis.

Baron Rothschild is credited as having once infamously said "When there's blood on the streets, buy property".

I can see the uncertiantly of Brexit causing a minor dip in prices, but unless you're employed in a sector that might see a negative effect from trade restrictions with the UK, and thus the stability of your earning could be impacted, that should be an incentive to buy.
Sellers might want to hold off though, there is already a housing shortage and if even 5 thousand UK employees relocate and there is a significant uptick in EU migration to Ireland then prices could go through the roof.

audi12

conorhal wrote: »

Baron Rothschild is credited as having once infamously said "When there's blood on the streets, buy property".

I can see the uncertiantly of Brexit causing a minor dip in prices, but unless you're employed in a sector that might see a negative effect from trade restrictions with the UK, and thus the stability of your earning could be impacted, that should be an incentive to buy.
Sellers might want to hold off though, there is already a housing shortage and if even 5 thousand UK employees relocate and there is a significant uptick in EU migration to Ireland then prices could go through the roof.

Relocate to Ireland when they know there is a shortage of places to rent not likely.

catbear

L1011 wrote: »

The UK is still going to need to feed itself and bar maybe buying beef in from South America (but not Argentina) they're still going to need to buy from us.

In a new addition to the british class system, the toffs will have Irish beef and the prolls will be having the cheaper south american variety.

It was weird to see Irish beef in an upmarket stall in argentina, way more expensive but considered premium in a country famous for its beef.

Johngoose

Irish jobs will definitely be affected by Brexit.For example exporters,people working in the hospitality industry and the service industry.It wasn't uncommon up to now to have people from u.k. visiting Ireland for a weekend/hen party or stag party.The weak pound will severely impact on visitor numbers from u.k.,who I'd imagine were coming here all year round,as opposed to our traditional summer visitors from further afield.Irish jobs will be affected and therefore there will be less mortgages taken out.

draiochtanois

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Graham

Johngoose wrote: »

Irish jobs will definitely be affected by Brexit.For example exporters,people working in the hospitality industry and the service industry.It wasn't uncommon up to now to have people from u.k. visiting Ireland for a weekend/hen party or stag party.The weak pound will severely impact on visitor numbers from u.k.,who I'd imagine were coming here all year round,as opposed to our traditional summer visitors from further afield.Irish jobs will be affected and therefore there will be less mortgages taken out.

To counter that, you may see increased employment in areas like IT, financial services and pharma.

It will be interesting to see if the slowdown in tourists does anything to return some of the AirBnB apartments back into long term housing for the local population.

Johngoose

draiochtanois wrote: »

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I did mention exporters will be hit too by the weak sterling. People in the u.k. will no longer buy as much Irish produce as the euro will be too strong against the pound. there could also be trade restrictions when the u.k. leaves the e.u. permanently. I'd imagine the reduction in Irish exports will hit the GNP of 250 billion euro significantly.

Rew

2 more UK property funds have suspended withdrawals.

audi12

Rew wrote: »

2 more UK property funds have suspended withdrawals.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/aviva-investors-suspends-its-uk-property-trust-1.2711149

Rew

This is what I was following earlier:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/jul/05/mark-carney-to-outline-bank-of-englands-brexit-stability-moves-business-live

audi12

Rew wrote: »

This is what I was following earlier:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/jul/05/mark-carney-to-outline-bank-of-englands-brexit-stability-moves-business-live

Property in England is screwed in the short term anyway.

Rew

audi12 wrote: »

Property in England is screwed in the short term anyway.

Its still early days there are some useful lists and comments in that stream about the value of various funds and what they are invested in.

audi12

Rew wrote: »

Its still early days there are some useful lists and comments in that stream about the value of various funds and what they are invested in.

I watch bloomberg every day excellent source of information.

deathtocaptcha

I think it's always wise to pay attention to any macro economic activity along with the obvious i.e. your personal financial situation and age, career, family prospects & goals etc...

If you followed some of the advice here in 2007 (i.e. the "ah sure if you can afford it and are living in it, go for it" advice), you'd be left in a right state today... i.e. still paying back a mortgage that you may be able to afford, but that has left you locked in to staying in the same place due to being in negative equity.

It's that sort of ("take it if you can get it") mentality that got us in to this mess in the first place... so I wouldn't knock anyone for being cautious or trying to look at a bigger picture.

Zooming out on stock markets, salaries, rent, house prices etc... and looking at things from a historical perspective, you'd have to say that we appear to be on the brink of another global economic downturn. Probably not on 2008 scale, but a downturn none the less.

We may escape it, we may not but it's unlikely we'll grow during it. So it's a reasonable assumption to make imo that house prices and rent have or are very close to peaking in the short term.

utmbuilder

could be some very fortunate first time buyers if prices do drop sharply later this year.

CruelCoin

themainman2010 wrote: »

I have a quick look at daft and couldn't believe the amount of property that is back on the market.
Im just wondering how bad it going to get this time?

When i bought my home in westmeath there were 40 similar properties. (4-bed semi).
There is now 1 terraced house in the same price bracket.

Not sure where all this extra housing is, but it's not here.
Prices have risen sharply for anything that was/is available.

c montgomery

CruelCoin wrote: »

When i bought my home in westmeath there were 40 similar properties. (4-bed semi).
There is now 1 terraced house in the same price bracket.

Not sure where all this extra housing is, but it's not here.
Prices have risen sharply for anything that was/is available.

That's what I'm seeing in cork too.

audi12

CruelCoin wrote: »

When i bought my home in westmeath there were 40 similar properties. (4-bed semi).
There is now 1 terraced house in the same price bracket.

Not sure where all this extra housing is, but it's not here.
Prices have risen sharply for anything that was/is available.

Have a feeling there will be more houses coming in to that bracket pretty soon. Have a look at bloomberg tv online.

Graham

Contrary to the chicken-licken model of economic forecasting, there's no immediate signs the Irish economic sky has started to fall in.

draiochtanois

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Graham

draiochtanois wrote: »

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+1

To borrow a phrase from the sage:

Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful

Rew

audi12 wrote: »

Have a feeling there will be more houses coming in to that bracket pretty soon. Have a look at bloomberg tv online.

More likely supply would dry up if there is a downturn as people either cant sell (too much neg equity) or wont sell (they perceive the value of their property to be more then the actual value).

MrDerp

I think the chief difference between now and 2008 is that there isn't 100,000 odd people currently working in construction and about to walk off completed (and, indeed, half-completed) building sites with no next job to go to.

There would be some impact in commercial, but there's plenty of planned office space that needn't be started if a downturn comes.

We're simply not as exposed to construction right now as we were in 2008, and we don't have the same amount of migrant workers in construction filling up the rental accommodation.

Similarly, we don't have have people on 30K with 6 buy to lets in Carrick-on-shannon nowadays, recent lending has been reasonably prudent, and by and large not to people working in risky areas.

So if there's a turn in Ireland, and there may well be, I don't think it'll be the cliff-fall of 2008-2009, but we could well have another recession.

All that aside, I don't know what that means for property prices in the next 5-10 years. Someone buying today with a 15% effective deposit (under FTB version of central bank rules) could easily lose that equity in 2-3 years, you never know. The most important thing is that you do your own stress testing and don't rely on the max figure the banks will give you today, as a childless couple, as a measure of what you can afford in 5 years if you have two kids by then.

MarkAnthony

MrDerp wrote: »

Similarly, we don't have have people on 30K with 6 buy to lets in Carrick-on-shannon nowadays, recent lending has been reasonably prudent, and by and large not to people working in risky areas.

I lol'd.

Seemingly they're limiting themselves to 2 or 3 in Tallaght now. :pac:

Villa05

MrDerp wrote:

I think the chief difference between now and 2008 is that there isn't 100,000 odd people currently working in construction and about to walk off completed (and, indeed, half-completed) building sites with no next job to go to.

Another big difference between now and 08 is that the state is massively indebted now. The mess from 08 is still there in small business loans and toxic mortgages.

In 08 we had reserves to give us leeway, now we only have the mistakes of the past to come back and kick us in the ass

audi12

Villa05 wrote: »

Another big difference between now and 08 is that the state is massively indebted now. The mess from 08 is still there in small business loans and toxic mortgages.

In 08 we had reserves to give us leeway, now we only have the mistakes of the past to come back and kick us in the ass

House prices are much lower than they were in the boom in Loughrea near me at the peak houses were going for 280,000 in the same estate you can get them houses for 120,000.

draiochtanois

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