Brexit Irish property price for sale crash again

themainman2010

I had gone sale agreed on property in Galway but have pulled out because of Brexit vote, when i told the Auntineer, he said he had 9 others pulled out of sale agreed properties since Brexit vote.
I have also heard since the banks shares are down they are being forced to put properties on the market that they were holding back.
I have a quick look at daft and couldn't believe the amount of property that is back on the market.
Im just wondering how bad it going to get this time?

It will be interesting to see it on the property price register in the future.

aw

Genuine question, why would Brexit put you off?

I understand the uncertainty around it...
But if this is your home you are buying and you have presumably done your sums re:affordability and have mortgage approval, then I'm not sure why you would not go ahead. Is it purely because you expect prices to fall again? That same uncertainty may threaten future mortgage approvals and it may not come as easy again.

I am, of course, assuming this is your home you are buying and not an investment property, which would be different.

jay0109

themainman2010 wrote: »

In Ireland the debt follows the person not the house so you can't just hand back the keys, they keep coming after all your assets and any other money you have :-(

Thats not exactly true...we have a few hundred repossessions every year, most of which are voluntary. And this despite world record levels of arrears.

As for price falls following Brexit. I'm thinking the opposite.
Some jobs definitely will come to Dublin from London putting more pressure on the housing market there.
Plus, I can see a lot more Eastern Europeans moving here who would otherwise have gone to the UK.

Lux23

I think the prices might stagnate for the next couple of years and then start moving up once Brexit really kicks in. If it really happens.

Askthe EA

Lux23 wrote: »

I think the prices might stagnate for the next couple of years and then start moving up once Brexit really kicks in. If it really happens.

If..... Now thats the big question isn't it?? I can see a Lisbon Type rerun. One thing is for certain, its the uncertainty thats hurting the markets most!

GalwayBmw

themainman2010 wrote: »

I had gone sale agreed on property in Galway but have pulled out because of Brexit vote, when i told the Auntineer, he said he had 9 others pulled out of sale agreed properties since Brexit vote.
I have also heard since the banks shares are down they are being forced to put properties on the market that they were holding back.
I have a quick look at daft and couldn't believe the amount of property that is back on the market.
Im just wondering how bad it going to get this time?

It will be interesting to see it on the property price register in the future.

Nah, you're not gonna get the asking lowered... /your estate agent/

al_E_kat

I moved into my house 4 weeks ago (new build). New and final phase being built now, same house is up 12500 in price from what I paid!!!

themainman2010

Also have seen on the net that the Vulture funds have just issued sell instructions to the hundreds of properties they have in Ireland, this will see huge number of properties appear on the Irish market!

Askthe EA

themainman2010 wrote: »

Also have seen on the net that the Vulture funds have just issued sell instructions to the hundreds of properties they have in Ireland, this will see huge number of properties appear on the Irish market!

I wouldnt believe everything you read on the net. I'm not saying you are wrong mind, just that there is sooooo much, I heard from a friends cousin stuff that it creates its own uncertainty and rumours.

cardinal tetra

the lack of knowledge and facts and the amount of speculation in this thread is obscene.

Please, i implore anyone buying or thinking of buying a house not to judge their options by anything on boards.ie

go with what you feel is right.

If you can afford somewhere. if you like somewhere. if it is right for you. buy it.

Dont pull out of a sale because dave from the internet said so. or brexit. a rediculous notion that the house that was right for you now is suddenly wrong on the off chance another house may come online.

TheDoc

Askthe EA wrote: »

I wouldnt believe everything you read on the net. I'm not saying you are wrong mind, just that there is sooooo much, I heard from a friends cousin stuff that it creates its own uncertainty and rumours.

Well there is also the transparency of just reading the market. Sells orders went through the roof the morning of the result.

I think it would be pretty shrewd to hold off as it's entirely possible prices will start falling again. And I don't think it's unreasonable to expect another recession here in the coming years.

All of this assumes Britain actually leave the EU. Forgotten in all of this is that the UK are not bound to referendums, and considering the leave campaign promises being revealed as lies, there might be a significant enough push to have another vote.

I'm not one for the scaremongering, but the last thing I'd so right now is make a six figure investment in anything. On the downside a recession will likely happen here if the UK leave, and people will get caught into negative equity AGAIN, on the pluside, there might well be a property rush to the market, and prices will drop significantly.

To the side of this, you need to factor in who will be navigating us through this issue. A ragtag government that had a likely 12 month expiry date. So we already don't have a government most would be confident can navigate this effectively for us.

frankythefish

cardinal tetra i salute your comment, right on the button, there is no guarantee to the way things are going to play out here. to say prices definitely going to fall is foolish. maybe they will, maybe they may well rise. so many factors in terms of buying a house people forget about too. reminds me of the time a colleague played hardball on a house purchase and got it for 7.5k cheaper as a result but in that time of negotiations had incurred another 12k rent expense.

I hope there see lots of people foolish enough to drop out of buying houses like the op because of brexit as it gives me more choice of places to buy. I certainly am not changing my plans to buy in fact I'd be more inclined to buy incase it gets harder to get a mortgage.

Brexit is not going to have any meaningful effect on prices here is a massive knee jerk reaction to pull out of buying a house you want because of it, how much rent will be spent between now and when you do buy, thousands and thousands no doubt. We also have no supply so it's very difficult to see any meaningful fall in prices are there will always be enough demand to keep prices up until there is a massive amount of houses built.

frankythefish

my point audi12 is not necessarily that there are going to rise. it is simply that there is a huge assumption being made that they are going to fall dramatically. the coming years will tell of course. in dublin for instance supply is short, and as such that it is rare is always going to be attractive.

audi12

audi12 wrote: »

You have no idea if it will impact on prices fact house prices are going to fall in England and they may here also.

I think it's very unlikely, hopefully people pulling out will make it a bit less competitive so prices might not rise as fast do great for me as I will still buy.

Also as I said peope who have mortgage approval now would be very foolish not to use it, it may be far harder to get it in the future also. I think banks cutting back lending is much more likely than prices falling. How can prices fall in any meantingfull way when there is no supply?

audi12

frankythefish wrote: »

my point audi12 is not necessarily that there are going to rise. it is simply that there is a huge assumption being made that they are going to fall dramatically. the coming years will tell of course. in dublin for instance supply is short, and as such that it is rare is always going to be attractive.

Supply is short now but in two years time it will be different in the social housing side of things anyway.

audi12

Kaylie Savory Alfalfa wrote: »

I think it's very unlikely, hopefully people pulling out will make it a bit less competitive so prices might not rise as fast do great for me as I will still buy.

Also as I said peope who have mortgage approval now would be very foolish not to use it, it may be far harder to get it in the future also. I think banks cutting back lending is much more likely than prices falling. How can prices fall in any meantingfull way when there is no supply?

If its harder to get mortgages prices fall you saw what happened with the central bank rules came in.

spaceHopper

Don't believe everything you read on the net (including this) and what is the big fear of negative equity.

Lest's say you buy a place for 200K and it drops 10% that's 20K, now how many years rent it that.

Lets say you are 30 and can get a 35 year mortgage, if you wait 5 years to buy then you will have higher monthly repayments.

Now look at Brexit, it's going to be at least 2 more like 3 years before they exit. How long do you want to wait.

How much are you spending on this house? What's the risk v cost if rent and impact of waiting?

audi12

audi12 wrote: »

If its harder to get mortgages prices fall you saw what happened with the central bank rules came in.

Prices are much higher now than when the central bank rules were introduced.

Also prices being lower aren't much good if you can't get a mortgage. Also even if prices drop they can't fall too much as they haven't risen to anything near the boom levels still. I'd much rather buy now than spend say two more years paying rent and then end up with house prices higher most likely, possible around the same or even if they fall its unlikely they will fall more than the two years rent and then maybe you can't get a mortgage anyway so are stuck renting even longer.

I think if you have approval now and can buy something you want that is affordable then buy it and don't be getting too hung up on the possibility of prices falling a few thousand in a few years time.

audi12

Kaylie Savory Alfalfa wrote: »

Prices are much higher now than when the central bank rules were introduced.

Also prices being lower aren't much good if you can't get a mortgage. Also even if prices drop they can't fall too much as they haven't risen to anything near the boom levels still. I'd much rather buy now than spend say two more years paying rent and then end up with house prices higher most likely, possible around the same or even if they fall its unlikely they will fall more than the two years rent and then maybe you can't get a mortgage anyway so are stuck renting even longer.

I think if you have approval now and can buy something you want that is affordable then buy it and don't be getting too hung up on the possibility of prices falling a few thousand in a few years time.

They have fallen outside Dublin in the last two months 0.2 per cent in March and 0.6 per cent in April house prices increases in Dublin has also slowed and is fragile.

audi12

audi12 wrote: »

They have fallen outside Dublin in the last two months 0.2 per cent in March and 0.6 per cent in April house prices increases in Dublin has also slowed and is fragile.

How many times are you going to push this lie?

Prices are rising every month in Cork and Galway, I'm following them closely and every time a new house goes up for sale similar to one recently sold the price is up and then most are going for over asking on top of that. you are living in dreamland if you think prices are falling.

screamer

Lots of people thought likewise OP in the recession thinking prices would fall and fall and sat on their hands and waited and waited and missed the boat and are now stuck in rentland hell...... simple really in life do what you need to do for your own cirvumstances don't be waiting on markets to rise and fall to influence a decision as markets do that every day.

audi12

Kaylie Savory Alfalfa wrote: »

How many times are you going to push this lie?

Prices are rising every month in Cork and Galway, I'm following them closely and every time a new house goes up for sale similar to one recently sold the price is up and then most are going for over asking on top of that. you are living in dreamland if you think prices are falling.

The price of homes in the rest of the country fell by 0.6% in April, the second monthly fall in a row.

A quote taken directly from the rte property section backing up the my home.ie and Irish times website. Tell me now im talking crap.

cardinal tetra

audi12 wrote: »

They have fallen outside Dublin in the last two months 0.2 per cent in March and 0.6 per cent in April house prices increases in Dublin has also slowed and is fragile.

Thats a load of crap but i guess a clock is always right twice a day.

cardinal tetra

audi12 wrote: »

You dont believe me fair enough but you must be in denial if you dont believe them websites

There are 43 different aspects that can account for those statistics and i can spin each and every one to give you a positive or negative aspect of each one. a .2 decrease can happen for a myriad of reasons, the same with .6. the uncertainty of the housing market mean you could very well be right at some stage. for 10 years george lee shouted from the roof tops that there was going to be a property crisis and in 2008 he looked very smug.

now you understand about a 2 tier housing market in ireland right? if not, have a look.
you also understand how the figures are collated? if not, again look them up.
Lastly, do you have a crystal ball? if not, can you tell me how you are predicting the future? because even with a masters degree in economics, i wouldnt touch it with a barge poll, yet you seem to have it sussed.

even the temerity to think people are concerned about Brexit as an indicator beggars belief. It's like that phrase where people who wave miniature flags, shouldnt be allowed to have one unsupervised.

Lumen

The best time to buy in recent years was when everyone was panicking about the Eurozone crisis.

audi12

cardinal tetra wrote: »

Enjoy the wait Audi.

I am enjoying the wait im buying outside the main cities delighted I am watching prices fall each month strengthening my hand.

cardinal tetra

audi12 wrote: »

I am enjoying the wait im buying outside the main cities delighted I am watching prices fall each month strengthening my hand.

good god LOL come on, i want to hear this. what do you have your eye on. whats your price range. whats the area. whats an acceptable price. whats an acceptable drop. when is the point where audi12 says, yeah, thats right for me. prices wont go any lower. ill buy now.



Id never goad or encourage anyone to buy property in any market that i wouldnt do myself but it sounds like you are letting penny pinching get in the way of house buying.

alias no.9

A few points...

Negative equity doesn't matter a jot unless you're selling, your ability to service the debt is what counts, this is more dependent on your continued employment than future house prices.

If you do lose your job, you'll likely run down some of the deposit you have saved while you look for a new job after which you'll reset the clock on probation period (assuming it's not a fixed term contract role) and also need to go through the whole cycle of demonstrating savings to the bank etc... which will delay any opportunity to gain advantage from a depressed market as it will recover somewhat in line with the jobs market.

Interest rates are less likely to rise with the continued uncertainty over Brexit.

The last 'bust' has shown that the availability of credit will collapse quicker than house prices and rebound slower. The available stock through the bottom of the market was also very poor. If you're sitting on a pile of cash in a safe currency, you're all set to capitalise on rock bottom prices and a possible rebound but if you're dependent on credit, a bust or even a modest decline in prices is unlikely to do much for your purchasing power.

If you're buying in a location where you're reasonably confident of maintaining employment through a downturn, even if there are some job changes through it (a series of fixed term contracts will pay a mortgage just fine but they wouldn't be ideal in a situation where you're looking for one), and are happy that the house will meet your needs in the longer term, it would be foolish to simply walk away from a purchase you are in a position to finance today because of Brexit. Sure the price may fall but in all likelihood, your ability to finance it will fall too, you're gambling on which one will fall faster. In addition, in the job loss scenario, based on what's happened since the last bust I'd sooner be in mortgage arrears to the bank than rent arrears to a landlord.

If you have concerns about the likelihood of living in the house for a 10+ year duration or for your employment prospects in the area for a similar outlook, then you should be hesitant to proceed with a house purchase regardless of Brexit.

makeandcreate

I put an offer on a property but the seller has to get bank approval for the sale. I have been waiting a month so far and the auctioneer seems to think there will be a decision soon. The offer was more than the AMV and about 10k less than the auctioneer expected to get. Will Brexit in anyway affect the decision, on tenterhooks as it is and not knowing is driving me crazy.

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

Stealthfins

I have a lot of empathetic feelings for those big fancy companies who snapped up property all over the place....noooottt...

The captain always looks his best when the ship is going down....

alias no.9

draiochtanois wrote: »

*** WRONG ***

This is one of the largest myths propagated by the clueless and financially illiterate

It matters in terms of the cost of your borrowings and or the having the ability to move lenders.

Fair point but a majority of mortgagors never change lender during the term and those that do will not do it frequently. Even if you were to review your mortgage provider once every 5 years, with the mortgage being paid down to schedule and the current deposit requirements, you may miss the opportunity to change lender at the 5 year review but it would take a cataclysmic event to impair you from year 10 on.

If you're struggling to service your mortgage with one bank, moving lenders will be equally difficult, so the point stands

alias no.9 wrote: »

your ability to service the debt is what counts, this is more dependent on your continued employment than future house prices.

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

intheclouds

Kaylie Savory Alfalfa wrote: »

How many times are you going to push this lie?

Prices are rising every month in Cork and Galway, I'm following them closely and every time a new house goes up for sale similar to one recently sold the price is up and then most are going for over asking on top of that. you are living in dreamland if you think prices are falling.

Actually Ive viewed 3 properties in Dublin the past week, 2 of which had taken price drops of 20k apiece. A search on myhome will show you a lot of price drops recently.

I also spoke to an estate agent yesterday re Brexit and he confirmed that people are pulling out of Sale Agreed as a result.

I heard a news report on Newstalk that said people should wait before making any big financial decisions. Sensible advice.

alias no.9

draiochtanois wrote: »

Sorry but it is as much dependent on the rate you are paying on your borrowings.

Indeed there was a recent court case where the borrower went bankrupt due to not being allowed back on a tracker.

Why did they leave the tracker? It would seem the ability to change rates / providers can bite you in the ass sometimes if this was the case.

Also,

The outstanding mortgage at the time of the bankruptcy was some €326,000 with €75,000 arrears, Mr Wallace's counsel told the court.
However, counsel said the actual amount, had there not been an overcharge, was around €284,000 with €52,000 arrears.

Do you think perhaps his ability to service the debt was compromised regardless of the interest rate?

Mr Wallace, who had worked in retail sales before losing his job

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

cardinal tetra

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

i think you are missing alias point.

alias no.9

draiochtanois wrote: »

You are completely missing the point which is that rates matter.

Rates do matter but the disparity in rates from the 4.5% SVR and 1.1% Tracker is a post bubble aberration, the 1.1% should never really have been a possibility.

Even if the historically low 1.1% had been applied he'd have been €52k in arrears on an outstanding €284k debt, 7 years after taking out the loan, that would have taken years of not paying anything and he'd still have been bankrupt.

You introduced this example and what it shows is that job security or lack there of will **** you up, the interest rates will add a little on the top.

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

markpb

intheclouds wrote: »

I heard a news report on Newstalk that said people should wait before making any big financial decisions. Sensible advice.

How long should people wait; six weeks, six months, two years? When do you think the final effects of the vote will settle down.

audi12

markpb wrote: »

How long should people wait; six weeks, six months, two years? When do you think the final effects of the vote will settle down.

No one knows the answer

alias no.9

draiochtanois wrote: »

I'll summarise again for you:

1) Negative equity does matter.

2) It affects the rate you pay on borrowings.

3) Rates matter example given shows difference of 3% and how much it costs.

You make make any number of related points but it doesn't change the veracity of 1 through 3

1 sometimes

2 is a risk not a given, how many tracker mortgages have been in negative equity during which time the mortgagors were paying a rate that could not be matched, never mind bettered, by switching provider

3 rates do matter but there's not always a better rate on offer

audi12

alias no.9 wrote: »

1 sometimes

2 is a risk not a given, how many tracker mortgages have been in negative equity during which time the mortgagors were paying a rate that could not be matched, never mind bettered, by switching provider

3 rates do matter but there's not always a better rate on offer

Just wait it out see what happens over the next few months are people that impatient.

Nua

themainman2010 wrote: »

I had gone sale agreed on property in Galway but have pulled out because of Brexit vote, when i told the Auntineer, he said he had 9 others pulled out of sale agreed properties since Brexit vote.
I have also heard since the banks shares are down they are being forced to put properties on the market that they were holding back.
I have a quick look at daft and couldn't believe the amount of property that is back on the market.
OP - I don't know where you've been looking but there has been no glut of property back on the market in Galway . . .

athtrasna

Mod note

Thread re-opened, with some posts having been deleted.

Brexit has led to uncertainty but the scaremongering on this thread is extremely unhelpful.

In fighting between posters leading to a back and forth situation can derail a thread. Please try to avoid that, there was more than one example of this on the thread.

Off topic posts have been deleted, we have jobs fora, economics fora, banking fora, politics fora, all with Brexit discussions if that's what you want to discuss.

Thanks.

Zenify

I have myhome alerts for areas around Wicklow and since Brexit there has been a significant addition of new properties to the market.

Has anyone else noticed this for other areas?

triple nipple

TheDoc wrote:

I think it would be pretty shrewd to hold off as it's entirely possible prices will start falling again. And I don't think it's unreasonable to expect another recession here in the coming years.

If there is an undersupply and high demand then how do you imagine prices will drop?

Bob24

triple nipple wrote: »

If there is an undersupply and high demand then how do you imagine prices will drop?

Of course a lack of supply tends to push prices up. But having said there there is always an upper ceiling defined by what people can afford, and market sentiment can have a strong impact.

Given all the negative reports we have seen in the media about the consequences of Brexit on the Irish economy (I never believed them in full, but many people seem to), it is not unreasonable for people who genuinely believe the economy will be heavily impacted to hold-back. And whether they are right or wrong, if they do it will tend to cool down the whole market.

Graham

audi12 wrote: »

Just wait it out see what happens over the next few months are people that impatient.

Sounds like a great time to be buying. Some of the most costly mistakes people have made in property have been a result of following the herd.

seamus

Graham wrote: »

Sounds like a great time to be buying. Some of the most costly mistakes people have made in property have been a result of following the herd.

Just as some people are predicting price crashes, others are predicting prices rises as EU companies try to relocate to Dublin.

So basically nobody knows. I don't think there even is a herd mentality at the moment, things are so up in the air.