Brexit Irish property price for sale crash again

Stealthfins

I have a lot of empathetic feelings for those big fancy companies who snapped up property all over the place....noooottt...

The captain always looks his best when the ship is going down....

alias no.9

draiochtanois wrote: »

*** WRONG ***

This is one of the largest myths propagated by the clueless and financially illiterate

It matters in terms of the cost of your borrowings and or the having the ability to move lenders.

Fair point but a majority of mortgagors never change lender during the term and those that do will not do it frequently. Even if you were to review your mortgage provider once every 5 years, with the mortgage being paid down to schedule and the current deposit requirements, you may miss the opportunity to change lender at the 5 year review but it would take a cataclysmic event to impair you from year 10 on.

If you're struggling to service your mortgage with one bank, moving lenders will be equally difficult, so the point stands

alias no.9 wrote: »

your ability to service the debt is what counts, this is more dependent on your continued employment than future house prices.

draiochtanois

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intheclouds

Kaylie Savory Alfalfa wrote: »

How many times are you going to push this lie?

Prices are rising every month in Cork and Galway, I'm following them closely and every time a new house goes up for sale similar to one recently sold the price is up and then most are going for over asking on top of that. you are living in dreamland if you think prices are falling.

Actually Ive viewed 3 properties in Dublin the past week, 2 of which had taken price drops of 20k apiece. A search on myhome will show you a lot of price drops recently.

I also spoke to an estate agent yesterday re Brexit and he confirmed that people are pulling out of Sale Agreed as a result.

I heard a news report on Newstalk that said people should wait before making any big financial decisions. Sensible advice.

alias no.9

draiochtanois wrote: »

Sorry but it is as much dependent on the rate you are paying on your borrowings.

Indeed there was a recent court case where the borrower went bankrupt due to not being allowed back on a tracker.

Why did they leave the tracker? It would seem the ability to change rates / providers can bite you in the ass sometimes if this was the case.

Also,

The outstanding mortgage at the time of the bankruptcy was some €326,000 with €75,000 arrears, Mr Wallace's counsel told the court.
However, counsel said the actual amount, had there not been an overcharge, was around €284,000 with €52,000 arrears.

Do you think perhaps his ability to service the debt was compromised regardless of the interest rate?

Mr Wallace, who had worked in retail sales before losing his job

draiochtanois

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cardinal tetra

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

i think you are missing alias point.

alias no.9

draiochtanois wrote: »

You are completely missing the point which is that rates matter.

Rates do matter but the disparity in rates from the 4.5% SVR and 1.1% Tracker is a post bubble aberration, the 1.1% should never really have been a possibility.

Even if the historically low 1.1% had been applied he'd have been €52k in arrears on an outstanding €284k debt, 7 years after taking out the loan, that would have taken years of not paying anything and he'd still have been bankrupt.

You introduced this example and what it shows is that job security or lack there of will **** you up, the interest rates will add a little on the top.

draiochtanois

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markpb

intheclouds wrote: »

I heard a news report on Newstalk that said people should wait before making any big financial decisions. Sensible advice.

How long should people wait; six weeks, six months, two years? When do you think the final effects of the vote will settle down.

audi12

markpb wrote: »

How long should people wait; six weeks, six months, two years? When do you think the final effects of the vote will settle down.

No one knows the answer

alias no.9

draiochtanois wrote: »

I'll summarise again for you:

1) Negative equity does matter.

2) It affects the rate you pay on borrowings.

3) Rates matter example given shows difference of 3% and how much it costs.

You make make any number of related points but it doesn't change the veracity of 1 through 3

1 sometimes

2 is a risk not a given, how many tracker mortgages have been in negative equity during which time the mortgagors were paying a rate that could not be matched, never mind bettered, by switching provider

3 rates do matter but there's not always a better rate on offer

audi12

alias no.9 wrote: »

1 sometimes

2 is a risk not a given, how many tracker mortgages have been in negative equity during which time the mortgagors were paying a rate that could not be matched, never mind bettered, by switching provider

3 rates do matter but there's not always a better rate on offer

Just wait it out see what happens over the next few months are people that impatient.

Nua

themainman2010 wrote: »

I had gone sale agreed on property in Galway but have pulled out because of Brexit vote, when i told the Auntineer, he said he had 9 others pulled out of sale agreed properties since Brexit vote.
I have also heard since the banks shares are down they are being forced to put properties on the market that they were holding back.
I have a quick look at daft and couldn't believe the amount of property that is back on the market.
OP - I don't know where you've been looking but there has been no glut of property back on the market in Galway . . .

athtrasna

Mod note

Thread re-opened, with some posts having been deleted.

Brexit has led to uncertainty but the scaremongering on this thread is extremely unhelpful.

In fighting between posters leading to a back and forth situation can derail a thread. Please try to avoid that, there was more than one example of this on the thread.

Off topic posts have been deleted, we have jobs fora, economics fora, banking fora, politics fora, all with Brexit discussions if that's what you want to discuss.

Thanks.

Zenify

I have myhome alerts for areas around Wicklow and since Brexit there has been a significant addition of new properties to the market.

Has anyone else noticed this for other areas?

triple nipple

TheDoc wrote:

I think it would be pretty shrewd to hold off as it's entirely possible prices will start falling again. And I don't think it's unreasonable to expect another recession here in the coming years.

If there is an undersupply and high demand then how do you imagine prices will drop?

Bob24

triple nipple wrote: »

If there is an undersupply and high demand then how do you imagine prices will drop?

Of course a lack of supply tends to push prices up. But having said there there is always an upper ceiling defined by what people can afford, and market sentiment can have a strong impact.

Given all the negative reports we have seen in the media about the consequences of Brexit on the Irish economy (I never believed them in full, but many people seem to), it is not unreasonable for people who genuinely believe the economy will be heavily impacted to hold-back. And whether they are right or wrong, if they do it will tend to cool down the whole market.

Graham

audi12 wrote: »

Just wait it out see what happens over the next few months are people that impatient.

Sounds like a great time to be buying. Some of the most costly mistakes people have made in property have been a result of following the herd.

seamus

Graham wrote: »

Sounds like a great time to be buying. Some of the most costly mistakes people have made in property have been a result of following the herd.

Just as some people are predicting price crashes, others are predicting prices rises as EU companies try to relocate to Dublin.

So basically nobody knows. I don't think there even is a herd mentality at the moment, things are so up in the air.

Graham

seamus wrote: »

Just as some people are predicting price crashes, others are predicting prices rises as EU companies try to relocate to Dublin.

So basically nobody knows. I don't think there even is a herd mentality at the moment, things are so up in the air.

The herd mentally appears to be circling around the 'wait and see' camp. If that starts to put downward pressure on prices then it could well be time to go shopping.

draiochtanois

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Graham

+1

All of the fundamentals point to rising property prices.

That's not to say property prices won't temporarily drop though, markets are irrational.

Bob24

Graham wrote: »

+1

All of the fundamentals point to rising property prices.

That's not to say property prices won't temporarily drop though, markets are irrational.

This, and while it can not sustain forever a negative market sentiment can easily become a self-fullfilling prophecy.

Also to be honest no-one can predict the consequences of Brexit, it could dramatically affect those fundamentals either positively or negatively.

Predictions are really difficult to make IMO.

cardinal tetra

Bob24 wrote: »

This, and while it can not sustain forever a negative market sentiment can easily become a self-fullfilling prophecy.

Also to be honest no-one can predict the consequences of Brexit, it could dramatically affect those fundamentals either positively or negatively.

Predictions are really difficult to make IMO.

having predicted 122 million drop here at work due to brexit, the overall ended up being 18 millon, a very minimal impact. the effect of Brexit in the financial world has been no greater in the end then a quick slump with recoveries to take place across all funds and currencies rather quickly. Companies as a whole will be posting better than expected forecasts in Q3 and everyone will be back slapping and talking of beating the brexit when in actual fact, there was no major problem there in the first place.

London, much like Dublin is seeing the same levels of stock pre and post brexit. I have not looked into the market outside Dublin at the moment but there has been no change in the current stock that is on offer although i do conceed that it feels the housing market has slowed in the last 4 months here.

wait and see. buy now. do what you like. wouldnt be like the irish to repeat their mistakes of the past. Bertie for Taoiseach.

Graham

cardinal tetra wrote: »

having predicted 122 million drop here at work due to brexit, the overall ended up being 18 millon, a very minimal impact. the effect of Brexit in the financial world has been no greater in the end then a quick slump with recoveries to take place across all funds and currencies rather quickly.

Brexit hasn't even started yet, it's probably a little early to be calling it a non-event.

cardinal tetra

Graham wrote: »

Brexit hasn't even started yet, it's probably a little early to be calling it a non-event.

The initial thud will be the strongest. yes there will be uncertainty, there will be this that and the other but the protracted disassociation of Brexit will linger for years and there will be peaks and troughs the whole time but for the most part, it will all be over and the UK will be in a less significant but still pivotal part of Europe. they are not going to disappear. It is not Armageddon.

Hazydays123

Brexit has not materially changed people's life circumstances.

If you've been living in a rental, saving for the past few years, have your deposit together and have gone through the rigmarole of getting mortgage approved, there's no way that you're going to hold back on buying a home because of Brexit.
The rental market is so grim that you'd be an idiot to subject yourself to it for any longer than is totally necessary.
We'll have our mortgage paid off in 10yrs. So no matter what, we'll have some equity to buy our next place.
There are enough of us in these circumstances to keep sustaining the market.

Graham

cardinal tetra wrote: »

The initial thud will be the strongest.

That's a brave call to make considering the lack of historical comparisons.

cardinal tetra wrote: »

yes there will be uncertainty, there will be this that and the other but the protracted disassociation of Brexit will linger for years and there will be peaks and troughs the whole time but for the most part, it will all be over and the UK will be in a less significant but still pivotal part of Europe. they are not going to disappear. It is not Armageddon.

I half agree. I don't think Brexit will directly cause a financial meltdown but the uncertainty will almost certainly have an impact on market sentiment. I suspect we'll see a slow down in activity generally as consumers and business adopt a wait-and-see approach.

Graham

Hazydays123 wrote: »

There are enough of us in these circumstances to keep sustaining the market.

If the banks slow down lending because of the uncertainty, there may not be 'enough of us' to sustain the market.

I'm not suggesting there's going to be a crash in property prices like the GFC but I'd be astounded not to see a slowdown of some sort.