July 2016 Boards forecast contest

Updated Table of forecasts (with Con Sensus added)

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ High Min, date

Dacogawa _____________ 16.1 _ 28.1 _ 3.9 _ 155 _ 080 ___ 16.9 _ 24
Rikand _______ (-2) _____16.0 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 18.0 _ 31
Sunflower3 ____________ 15.9 _ 25.5 _ 4.9 _ 105 _ 110 ___ 16.1 _ 21
JD ___________________ 15.8 _ 27.2 _ 3.9 _ 125 _ 092 ___ 17.2 _ 29
Kindred Spirit __________ 15.3 _ 27.0 _ 4.0 _ 104 _ 095 ___ 17.0 _ 22

Norma L _______________15.3 _ 27.0 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 16.5 _ **

Joe Public ______________15.1 _ 24.9 _ 3.9 _ 109 _ 099 ___ 18.9 _ 22
rameire _______________ 15.1 _ 24.8 _ 3.3 _ 125 _ 088 ___ 16.3 _ 09
waterways _____________ 15.0 _ 27.3 _ 3.9 _ 119 _ 101 ___ 16.8 _ 16
John mac _____ (-1) _____15.0 _ 26.0 _ 6.9 _ 110 _ 103 ___ 14.8 _ 27
sryanbruen ____________ 15.0 _ 25.0 _ 3.9 _ 105 _ 101 ___ 16.9 _ 23
Lumi __________________15.0 _ 25.0 _ 3.7 _ 152 _ 085 ___ 16.7 _ 29

Con Sensus ____________ 15.0 _ 25.0 _ 3.9 _ 124 _ 092 ___ 16.8 _ 23

Bsal __________________ 15.0 _ 23.8 _ 4.0 _ 140 _ 090 ___ 16.0 _ 13
DOCARCH _____________ 14.9 _ 25.6 _ 4.7 _ 124 _ 092 ___ 16.8 _ 21
MrSkinner _____________ 14.9 _ 24.9 _ 4.5 _ 111 _ 092 ___ 15.8 _ 16
M.T. Cranium ___________14.8 _ 25.5 _ 3.8 _ 160 _ 080 ___ 17.1 _ 30
Pauldry _______________ 14.7 _ 23.0 _ 4.9 _ 180 _ 088 ___ 16.8 _ 31
200motels _____________ 14.6 _ 27.0 _ 5.9 _ 102 _ 106 ___ 16.6 _ 23
Tae laidir_______________14.6 _ 25.0 _ 4.0 _ 135 _ 094 ___ 16.8 _ 29
Jpmarn ______ (-1) _____ 14.5 _ 24.5 _ 4.5 _ 130 _ 080 ___ 14.8 _ 26
Dasa29 ______ (-2) _____ 14.5 _ 24.0 _ 3.5 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 16.0 _ 16
Carnacalla ____ (-2) _____14.1 _ 23.2 _ 3.6 _ 145 _ 100 ___ 17.4 _ 29
_________________________________________________________

Our scoring leader mickger844posts did not enter in July, this won't greatly affect his chances in the best 10 of 12 scoring system as he would still have one to "give" there.

The consensus of the group is for a rather cool, moist and cloudy month, with no forecasts below normal for rainfall.

So far, by my quick check of the data, the high minimum established is only 12.4 at Valentia on 4th (not including today to be checked later).

Just for the record, the extremes so far:

MAX 22.4 Gurteen 7th

MIN 4.8 Moorepark 3rd.

Update after two weeks (14 days) ...

IMT at 14.2 with the week 14.8 (0.6 below normal for the period).

PRC at 116% after a rather wet week (142% of normal). Estimate 125% now after today's rain.

SUN down to 79.1% of normal after a very cloudy week (61% of normal, basically 3-4 hours a day instead of the normal 5-6 or so).

No changes to MAX or MIN (today will change the MAX), min on 14th was 6.6 C, and the high minimum for the bonus will probably be adjustable by end of this current warm spell. Would expect IMT to gain about 0.2 a day for about a week now, could be in the mid 15s eventually.

16.9 the new high minimum at Dunsany on 18th. Could be edged out by today's data though. As you say, MAX settled and will be scored by minimum progression.

Update through week 3 ...

IMT at 15.4(2) after a very warm week that averaged 17.9 (2.2 above normal for the period). (new MAX set, 30.4)

PRC has now slipped to 98% of normal after a rather dry week at 63% (Malin Head the only site above normal).

SUN has made some progress to about 89% after a week a little under 110%.

After four weeks ...

IMT now at 15.5 with the week at 15.7 (0.1 above normal). Should finish around 15.4.

PRC continues to run 98% of normal, the week being 97%. Not much rain expected, perhaps 95% to finish.

SUN back down to 82% as the week was quite dull (60% of normal). Should limp in at about 80%.

No changes noted for MAX, MIN or high min (bonus).