Farming post Brexit

pedigree 6

_Brian wrote: »

Cant possibly see this being a good thing for Wales, sooo much EU money has been poured in to help develop them, same as ourselves. I think without the EU Wales would be a fairly grim place, as would much of Ireland..

I think the point he's making is that places in Wales are already in a desperate situation despite being in the Eu since 1973.

I said

pedigree 6 wrote: »

I think the point he's making is that places in Wales are already in a desperate situation despite being in the Eu since 1973.

Wales is a sh1tehole

SEPT 23 1989

You lads will do very well out of this when the dust settles

Ignore the usual hogs at the trough reaction to this vote

pedigree 6

I said wrote: »

Wales is a sh1tehole

Passed through it on a bus a few times.
So I have no real opinion.

Commentators go on about money from the Eu as if the eu is some sort of magic money pit. The money comes from every member state and divided up whatever way they see fit. Some countries have to give more and others less and the same receiving. Simples.:D

Username John

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Passed through it on a bus a few times.
So I have no real opinion.

Commentators go on about money from the Eu as if the eu is some sort of magic money pit. The money comes from every member state and divided up whatever way they see fit. Some countries have to give more and others less and the same receiving. Simples.:D

Same as that meself...

I suppose though, did Wales do better from being in the EU to date?

It's hard to know too how they see they will be better off outside the EU - do they see the EU restricting the UK investing in Wales and northern England which will now happen with the EU gone?

Waffletraktor

Username John wrote: »

Same as that meself...

I suppose though, did Wales do better from being in the EU to date?

It's hard to know too how they see they will be better off outside the EU - do they see the EU restricting the UK investing in Wales and northern England which will now happen with the EU gone?

Other than off the 2 motorways at the top and bottom there is fook all in Wales and they are too odd to make some of the nice places like Builth into a touristy place as too many non locals about then :pac:

freedominacup

Reggie. wrote: »

paddysdream wrote: »

Thats dreamland stuff.The powers either regional assembly have is pretty limited.They might hold a vote on EU membership but at the end of the day both Scotland and NI are part of the UK.
Could anyone really see the voters of NI voting to leave the UK and to remain in the EU and have their state run by a mixture of loony Shinners and equally looney DUP ?

Its really showing up what each party is made up of and what bluffing was done.

You could see the "what now" in the face of Boris on Friday at the press conferences.

Boris was like the typical hurler on the ditch that some inter county manager for pi$$ed of with and climbed up into the stand to drag yer man down onto the sideline and then gave him the managers bib. No clue what he was going to do and visibly shaken after he needed twenty bobbies to escort from his front door to the back seat of his limo due to the crowd of highly annoyed remain voters outside his house.

pedigree 6

Username John wrote: »

Same as that meself...

I suppose though, did Wales do better from being in the EU to date?

It's hard to know too how they see they will be better off outside the EU - do they see the EU restricting the UK investing in Wales and northern England which will now happen with the EU gone?

I don't know.
But I can understand if you hit the bottom and have nothing to loose the only way is up. I'm only guessing here. I don't know if people voted because of that or other reasons.

But I also guess that the leave
campaigners also brought in how the UK are one of the main finance contributors to the eu and that money saved could now be spent on their own people instead.
Could also bring in immigration factors in to the equation and we might get a true picture.

_Brian

I said wrote: »

Wales is a sh1tehole

Jesus that's a broad sweeping statement.
I've only stayed there once and it was as beautiful as any part of the west of Ireland and I couldn't tell much different between the two either

coolshannagh28

Revolutions are generally caused by disparity not poverty and this is brought home by the Brexit vote ,neo liberal trickle down economic policy has brought great prosperity to the centre London and poverty to the regions hence the disconnect .

I said

_Brian wrote: »

Jesus that's a broad sweeping statement.
I've only stayed there once and it was as beautiful as any part of the west of Ireland and I couldn't tell much different between the two either

Have been there a few times I stand over that statement.

Waffletraktor

_Brian wrote: »

Jesus that's a broad sweeping statement.
I've only stayed there once and it was as beautiful as any part of the west of Ireland and I couldn't tell much different between the two either

Wales is beautiful, have had a few stays down there with friends etc... but other than Ag and very concentrated business close to the motorways there is little else going on!
Like the west?!

TITANIUM.

I said wrote: »

_Brian wrote: »

Jesus that's a broad sweeping statement.
I've only stayed there once and it was as beautiful as any part of the west of Ireland and I couldn't tell much different between the two either

Have been there a few times I stand over that statement.

Have visited there a good few times myself. Some of the cities are as you describe. But I love getting off the beaten track over there. Theres one village I love going to. Only one little Inn to stay in there and most of the locals converse mostly in welsh with very broken English. Some beautiful places and people there.

Old School Husqy

Nekarsulm wrote: »

Yeah, you'dsee a tiny red light somewhere on the road in front of you , and not know if it was a joint army/ruc checkpoint or the back reflector of a push bike.
Stop and a police man takes his time checking your licence and insurance, and as your eyes adjusted to the darkness, you would start to discern soldiers in the hedge with rifles at half port.

There were funny episodes too. A neighbour went down to McCaffreys quarry at Derrylin with a trailer on a Ford 7000 for a load of plastering sand .
No bother going north, but coming back, army stopped him. As he told it, "They stopped me with the front wheels up against the ramp, and the owl clutch wasn't great at the time. Then she wasn't able to pull away with the load on. It took half the British army pushing to get her moving again"!

The Ford and clutch story is a classic high stool story.

_Brian

Reading this article on sky news and it seems Boris thinks he can have free access to Eu markets, free trade, strike deals round the world where he likes, free movement of Brits yet controlled access into Britain, and contribute nothing as they go.
I can't see him striking this sort of eutopian deal, it would just encourage more states to do the same and that isn't what Brussels wants happen, I don't think they should be allowed cherry pick like that either.

http://news.sky.com/story/1717965/boris-sets-out-vision-for-britain-after-brexit

Reggie.

_Brian wrote: »

Reading this article on sky news and it seems Boris thinks he can have free access to Eu markets, free trade, strike deals round the world where he likes, free movement of Brits yet controlled access into Britain, and contribute nothing as they go.
I can't see him striking this sort of eutopian deal, it would just encourage more states to do the same and that isn't what Brussels wants happen, I don't think they should be allowed cherry pick like that either.

http://news.sky.com/story/1717965/boris-sets-out-vision-for-britain-after-brexit

He's not too fond of Scotland getting independent either

I said

Reggie. wrote: »

He's not too fond of Scotland getting independent either

The oil is the only thing that they have now not a chance they'll lose it to Scottish independence

kowtow

He's preparing the ground for the Norway/ Swiss option which in many ways is the best of all worlds..

Trade deal while retaining sovereignty... pay for access + agreements on free movement.

If the eu has any sense it will do what some in Germany say and build a new level of associate membership.

They may not like the UK but Europe cannot easily suffer the loss of a country with a GDP of nearly three trillion dollars.

Buford T. Justice XIX

kowtow wrote: »

He's preparing the ground for the Norway/ Swiss option which in many ways is the best of all worlds..

Trade deal while retaining sovereignty... pay for access + agreements on free movement.

If the eu has any sense it will do what some in Germany say and build a new level of associate membership.

They may not like the UK but Europe cannot easily suffer the loss of a country with a GDP of nearly three trillion dollars.

Will it not suit Germany and its exports to have an even weaker currency due to a weaker EU allowing them even more competitive exports?

_Brian

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

Will it not suit Germany and its exports to have an even weaker currency due to a weaker EU allowing them even more competitive exports?

But will the UK implement tariffs in goods coming in from the EU, they may well at least threaten it to use as a bargaining chip..

Buford T. Justice XIX

_Brian wrote: »

But will the UK implement tariffs in goods coming in from the EU, they may well at least threaten it to use as a bargaining chip..

Never thought of that.

I wonder how much of our imports from the continent come through Britain?

albacrypts

UK leaving EU is a problem for them and not for us

1. They will end up having similar deal to Norway which basicallly is that they will have to accept all the EU regulations, make a big contribution to EU budget but will have absolutely no say in how regulations drawn up or how money is spent.

2. Their FDI will crash from being highest (by a long way) in EU to being one of the lowest. US Groups if want an english speaking environment will invest in Ireland, if want cheap labour will go to Eastern Europe where labour cost way below devalued sterling cost.

3. EU will not allow Euro banking business to be based in London thus Dublin, Frankfurt, will be major gainers when this business moves.

3. Potentially Scotland will split from UK

4. The only gains I see for UK are Tourist industry from weaker sterling. Some people expect lower food prices in UK but this will not happen as all exporters into UK will increase prices eventually to compensate for lower sterling. There is an EU and world market that becomes more attractive now than UK.

5. UK Farmers will be hammered as regards subsidies otherwise if they dont like UK prices they to can look to export market but in the end uk consumers will pay market price for food and UK farmers will receive market prices which in the end will be higher in sterling terms which will compensate a bit for loss of subsities.

Ireland

1 Yes there will be some short term disruption until food industry raises prices in UK (food industry in every country exporting to UK will do exactly the same as will UK industry itself) but we have been there before and have lived through it. We can expect a bad autumn for cattle but will recover next year. Milk on the floor anyway and this is driven by world prices UK leaving will not have any impact on world prices unless they consume a lot less. One thought is that if Stg becomes very weak it might be cheaper for processors to slaughter in UK.

2. As regards subsidies yes EU pot might be smaller but given that subsidies have not increased for 15 + years EU will find the money to hold level. In addition max amount of subsidy which can be paid may be reduced now that UK going as they always wanted this high as they have a small number of big farms and always held firm on this. This is a plus for vast majority of Irish farmers.

3. Our FDI should increase all of manufacturing (high end), services, banking etc will move more to Ireland. On the other hand low end domestic industries wth a high proportion of labour will suffer increased competition from UK and there will be job losses. In addition tourism will suffer from lower sterling.

4 We can expect less emmigration to UK and more immagration from UK which in theory is positive for our economy (if we manage to build the houses needed)

5. We will lose a key supporter in the EU which is not good as we will get less of what we want.

In 5 years I expect we will be as we are now or probably a little bit better off. The UK will definately be worse off and may not exist as we know it now.

Unless that is they cop on and have another vote in next couple of years which I expect will be 55 - 45 in favour.

_Brian

albacrypts wrote: »

UK leaving EU is a problem for them and not for us

1. They will end up having similar deal to Norway which basicallly is that they will have to accept all the EU regulations, make a big contribution to EU budget but will have absolutely no say in how regulations drawn up or how money is spent.

2. Their FDI will crash from being highest (by a long way) in EU to being one of the lowest. US Groups if want an english speaking environment will invest in Ireland, if want cheap labour will go to Eastern Europe where labour cost way below devalued sterling cost.

3. EU will not allow Euro banking business to be based in London thus Dublin, Frankfurt, will be major gainers when this business moves.

3. Potentially Scotland will split from UK

4. The only gains I see for UK are Tourist industry from weaker sterling. Some people expect lower food prices in UK but this will not happen as all exporters into UK will increase prices eventually to compensate for lower sterling. There is an EU and world market that becomes more attractive now than UK.

5. UK Farmers will be hammered as regards subsidies otherwise if they dont like UK prices they to can look to export market but in the end uk consumers will pay market price for food and UK farmers will receive market prices which in the end will be higher in sterling terms which will compensate a bit for loss of subsities.

Ireland

1 Yes there will be some short term disruption until food industry raises prices in UK (food industry in every country exporting to UK will do exactly the same as will UK industry itself) but we have been there before and have lived through it. We can expect a bad autumn for cattle but will recover next year. Milk on the floor anyway and this is driven by world prices UK leaving will not have any impact on world prices unless they consume a lot less. One thought is that if Stg becomes very weak it might be cheaper for processors to slaughter in UK.

2. As regards subsidies yes EU pot might be smaller but given that subsidies have not increased for 15 + years EU will find the money to hold level. In addition max amount of subsidy which can be paid may be reduced now that UK going as they always wanted this high as they have a small number of big farms and always held firm on this. This is a plus for vast majority of Irish farmers.

3. Our FDI should increase all of manufacturing (high end), services, banking etc will move more to Ireland. On the other hand low end domestic industries wth a high proportion of labour will suffer increased competition from UK and there will be job losses. In addition tourism will suffer from lower sterling.

4 We can expect less emmigration to UK and more immagration from UK which in theory is positive for our economy (if we manage to build the houses needed)

5. We will lose a key supporter in the EU which is not good as we will get less of what we want.

In 5 years I expect we will be as we are now or probably a little bit better off. The UK will definately be worse off and may not exist as we know it now.

Unless that is they cop on and have another vote in next couple of years which I expect will be 55 - 45 in favour.

Id expect some of that but maybe not all the bad stuff, or maybe not as bad as your expecting..

I definitely think they're just trying to set a starting position for negotiations by all this talk of open trade and how good its going to be for them.. Its like the lad who walks away from a cushy well paid job to realise the real world isnt all he thought it was... a real case of be careful what you wish for - it might come true !!

kowtow

Buford T. Justice V wrote:

Will it not suit Germany and its exports to have an even weaker currency due to a weaker EU allowing them even more competitive exports?

It will but there is a double down game going on... the euro banks are in a precarious state, deutsche among them, and the German won't want to underwrite the additional money needed to cushion the shock of more meltdown purely to satisfy the whims of politicians keen to 'punish' the uk.

Every man and his dog wants money from Germany as a result of this crisis, all Britain would want is freedom to buy German exports in a world of free trade.

Which do you think the rational Germans will sign up for?

Although in the meantime they seem a bit keen to take over the police forces of the remaining states, perhaps to discourage the others. That will sort out the gardai!

Waffletraktor

Some thing we recieved from near the top table of nfu/defra talks.

Several points came to light that are extremely relevant to the future of Govt support for farming:

As we know, once Article 50 is triggered in March 2017, we have 2 years to come up with a deal, which is going to be almost impossible to achieve.

This is coupled with the fact that there will also be the next EU Parliament elections in 2019, in which the UK isn't likely to field any candidates. Then followed by the next CAP reforms due in 2020, we would need to perform a miracle to have sorted everything out before either of these two events take place.

Without our EU financial contribution, it will be extremely difficult for the EU to continue its own levels of farm support. But also leaving the EU will cost the UK substantially and our levels of farm support as a proportion of the UK Govt budget must decline.

However, Chancellor Philip Hammond has guaranteed continued farm support up to 2020 and is known to realise how important UK agriculture is in the Country.

Nissan's Chief Executive, Carlos Ghosn has already been pledged by Theresa May that the UK Govt will pay any tariffs brought about by the EU, post a 2019 Brexit. She was in effect forced to do so because had Nissan pulled out of the UK, the pound would have slid even further than it has now. No doubt all the other UK car manufacturers will seek similar support.

This is very relevant to UK farming because there are more people involved with farming and agriculture than there are in both the entire UK motor and aircraft industries combined!

The UK is only 61% self sufficient in food production and before the referendum, this had been predicted to fall even further.

In the 70's and 80's, no direct support to farmers was paid, but grants were paid to farmers (for drainage, buildings etc) as an incentive to increase production. This was very successful.

Since the introduction of IACS, SFP and BPS with direct payments, production has fallen. So it is likely that a grant support system may well be reintroduced to replace or partially replace direct production support and still create profitable farming. Philip Hammond favours this idea.

Environmental payments (pillar 2) have been extremely successful and will probably continue. However, in her opening speech on becoming Prime Minister, TM pledged that she will provide support for those who a just about managing, the so called JAMs. These people want cheap food and will not be very concerned about Environmental standards of where their food comes from

The NFU are extremely pleased that many of our Supermarket chains including Aldi and Lidl have been strongly promoting British food. Further encouragement of the Red Tractor label and logo must be promoted. The NFU is further seeking that post Brexit, our Supermarket chains pledge only to sell foreign food that conforms to UK standards. Waitrose has already agreed to this.

The UK Govt will be adopting into UK, all the EU laws. Then at sometime later, the laws and rules will be examined and repealed or adjusted to the UK situation. However this is not likely to take place until well into the 2020's
Unfortunately, this will mean no bonfire of regulations that effect us as farmers for some considerable time.

The Govt has pledged that their decisions will be based on Science rather than Emotion. The Glyphosate usage EU re-licensing was for only 18 months and will expire even before Brexit. So it will be of great concern to UK farmers how this pans out!

The NFU is of the opinion that Brexit voting amongst UK farmers was about 60/40 in favour of Remaining. It is thought that the Glyphosate debate encouraged more farmers to vote Leave than would have been the case had it been re-licensed for 10 years as normal.
Interesting to note that TFF's own pole showed 70/30 in favour of Leave!

The situation beyond a 2019 Brexit with regard Tariffs is complicated. Philip Hammond has said that if any trade tariffs were placed by the EU upon the UK, that they would be reciprocated. However, if the £ exchange rate falls, which will create even higher inflation, the Govt may well be reluctant to create tariffs that would in effect increase inflation further.

IMO this is a bit defeatist and shows weakness on the UK's part! If tariffs were put on German cars, wouldn't that encourage drivers to purchase British built cars instead? The trouble might be that Govt is very determined to protect the City (of London) as one of it's chief priorities and won't want to upset them!

The 2017 French Elections will have a huge effect on the EU if Marie Le Pen's FN (right wing) party wins. This could cause the end the EU and might in fact be a huge benefit to the UK position.

The fact that the UK is only 61% self sufficient in food production is a huge advantage to us. Meurig sees merit in the fact that if tariffs were introduce on the 2m tonnes of surplus wheat as well as the 40% of UK Lamb production we Export, together with Import tariffs on EU pork/bacon, milk and (Irish) beef, plus the massive increase in Import/Export paperwork that will be required for dealing with a non EU country, this will undoubtedly encourage a massive increase in home production of these at present Imports using our surplus wheat. This would be very encouraging to entrepreneur and young farmers

But there is no doubt that at present, the rest of the EU are circling their wagons against us! The very fact that the sterling drops in value are helping our exporters and farmers, but slowing down EU imports is annoying them.

It is well known that a major vote for Leave was on the back of Immigration control. Not only would this effect vegetable and fruit growers, but our abattoirs and meat packers also employ 60% foreign workers. The UK Govt are keen to protect them, but also keen to protect UK workers within the EU. It is a case of who blinks first as to how this will be sorted.

One of our biggest problems is the very different stances that UK Conservative Politicians are taking with regard Brexit. Some MPs are very keen to crack on and support a hard Brexit, while others are keener to take a softer approach and make sure the UK gets the best deal and continues to trade with the EU. There is for instance a huge difference between Liam Fox's and Philip Hammond's views. Leadsom is seen to be learning fast! We won't mention Boris!

It is believed by the NFU that farming support will continue beyond 2020 and that Philip Hammond has sent a coded message that the levels will be in the region of 2/3rds the level that they are now. It is also realised that hill farms and LFA's will need fuller support to be able to continue farming.

It is expected that rents will fall as direct support declines and that there will be special support for younger farmers.


IMO it could be argued that Brexit was won as a backlash to Project Fear. There is a lot to decide and a lot of uncertainty. But there is cause for optimism too and we must allow this to flourish rather than become too depressed about our farming futures. I certainly felt much happier after last night's meeting!

Buford T. Justice XIX

I thought this thread was active later than a year ago:o

Anyways, it looks like Brexit will increase our MEPs by 2, up to 13.

https://www.farmersjournal.ie/two-more-irish-meps-post-brexit-340760

I wonder if Dublin will get both or if one may be allowed for rural Ireland?

paddysdream

paddysdream wrote: »

Listening to the radio this morning you would swear the world had ended.Rte seem to think this is the worst thing since the last worst thing that happened.
Could end up like the y2k scare,the "we are all gonna die from bird flu" scare,the post 9.11 terrorism scare,the sellafield cancer scare,the chernobyl scare,the ozone hole layer etc etc.
Bet you all that in 5 years time nobody will even remember the details.

Chances of the Irish army being deployed back on the border this year ?Laughable and an example of the hyperbole people feel is necessary to be seen to be taking this in a serious manner.
Nobody died and talks will drag out for years.

Hmmmm 18 months later and nothing yet.No deal ,no army at the border,Irish farming hasn't collapsed overnight.
Lets all look back in here in another 18 months and maybe by then something might have happened.
Like that George Lee programme last week;lots of speculation,guesswork and ochone ochone

paddysdream

Well left it for almost double the time mentioned (18 months) and still no conclusion.
No army at the border,no collapse of Irish farming (well no more than usual),no change of mind by the UK powers that be,it actual fact for the last 4 years its been talk, talk, talk and little else.
George Lee has found another story to occupy his interest.

blue5000

paddysdream wrote: »

Well left it for almost double the time mentioned (18 months) and still no conclusion.
No army at the border,no collapse of Irish farming (well no more than usual),no change of mind by the UK powers that be,it actual fact for the last 4 years its been talk, talk, talk and little else.
George Lee has found another story to occupy his interest.

It's relevant so I'll leave it run

meanwhile some of us will nudge this one on to 2 billion views.