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June 2016 Boards forecast contest

  • 28-05-2016 7:23pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,213 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT (Irish mean temperature, an average for five stations, Casement, Claremorris, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon). The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 13.6 C.

    2. Predict the MAX, the highest daily maximum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

    3. Predict the MIN, the lowest daily minimum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

    4. Predict the PRC, the average rainfall expressed as percentage of normal at the eleven stations we normally use, which include the five mentioned for IMT and also Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Malin Head, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

    5. Predict the SUN, the total sunshine expressed as a percentage of normal at the six stations used (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia).

    6. For a BONUS question, predict the lowest maximum temperature of the month and name the location (date won't count for contest but add that if you wish). In case anyone needs further instructions, a low maximum equates to a cold mid-day reading, for example last week some highs of only 12-13 C were recorded around Dublin.

    Enter by the deadline of 0300h on Wed 1st of June, or take the slight penalties that are assigned on first, increasing on second.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels
    13.9----28.2---- 6.2---- 78----125
    14.9 Belmullet 20th


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen __________ 14.4 _ 26.1 _ 3.8 _ 108 _ 98 _ 13.7c Dublin Airport 19th

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry __________ 14.2 _ 27.0_ 3.9 _ 85_ 120 _ 12.0 Malin Head


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,716 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal __________ 14.1 _ 27.5 _ 4.0 _ 90 _ 110 _ 12.8c Malin Head


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,583 ✭✭✭ jd


    JDl __________ 14.4 _ 27.9 _ 3.8 _ 92 _ 112_ 13.6c Belmullet


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,746 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public __________ 14.9 _ 23.9 _ 2.9 _ 81 _ 120_ 12.9c Malin Head 2nd


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner.......14.......26......2.4........94.......114.......11 Malin. Brexit day


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts __________ 14.8 _ 26.4 _ 4.8 _ 90 _ 105 _ 12.7c Malin Head 17th


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Am I the only one predicting a wet and dull June? :pac:

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 351 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways __________ 14.1 _ 25.7 _ 2.7 _ 90 _ 111 _ 12.1 Dublin


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  • Registered Users Posts: 713 lostinashford


    lostinashford 14.2----27.5---- 4.6---- 96----110
    10.2 Malin


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,997 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac__________ 13.8 _ 26.4_ 3.9 _ 98_ 110 _ 13.0 dublin airport 14th:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 318 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit.___________14.4_______27.6_______5.1________85_____105_________12.5 Clones.


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir __________ 14.5 _ 25.0 _ 4.2 _ 75 _ 104 _ 13.0c Knock, Summer Solstice


  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3 __________ 14.7 _ 25.6 _ 6.0 _ 90 _ 100 _ 13.2deg C Malin head, 23rd


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,773 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa __________ 13.9 _ 28.1 _ 4.2 _ 110 _ 95 _ 11.7c Dublin Airport


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 Lumi


    Lumi __________ 13.9 _ 25.7 _ 3.8 _ 90 _ 105 _ 11.7 Malin Head


  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 __________ 13.6 _ 26.0 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 110 _ 12.0 Belmullet


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,213 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    M.T. Cranium _______ 14.5 _ 27.7 _ 3.0 _ 080 _ 130 _ 11.8 (Knock)


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,118 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH _______ 13.8 _ 26.2 _ 2.1 _ 085 _ 115 _ 12.2 (Malin Head)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,765 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire_______ 14.1_ 26.5 _ 3.1 _ 95 _ 105 _ 12.2 _ malin head


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn
    14.5----27.2---- 3.5---- 90----112
    11.9 Malin Head 13th


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    Carnacalla__________15.0__25.5__2.1__98__120_11.3 Valentia Island.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,567 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    I kept saying. I'll enter later. I'll enter later. I'll enter later.....


    feck


    Rikand ___ 15.0 ____ 27.0 ____ 2.0 ____ 95 ____ 130 ____ 13.0 Belmullet


    P.S. Carnacalla, i think you're missing a 2 in front of your max temp..... or possibly even a 3 :eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,213 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of Forecasts June 2016


    FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Low max, loc'n
    __________________________________________________________________

    Rikand _______ (-3) ___ 15.0 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 095 _ 130 __ 13.0 Belmullet
    Carnacalla_____ (-2) ___15.0 _ 25.5 _ 2.1 _ 098 _ 120 __ 11.3 Valentia Island
    Joe Public ____________14.9 _ 23.9 _ 2.9 _ 081 _ 120 __ 12.9 Malin Head 2nd
    mickger844posts ______ 14.8 _ 26.4 _ 4.8 _ 090 _ 105 __ 12.7 Malin Head 17th
    Sunflower3 ___________14.7 _ 25.6 _ 6.0 _ 090 _ 100 __ 13.2 Malin Head, 23rd
    M.T. Cranium _________14.5 _ 27.7 _ 3.0 _ 080 _ 130 __ 11.8 Knock
    Jpmarn _____ (-2) ____ 14.5 _ 27.2 _ 3.5 _ 090 _ 112 __ 11.9 Malin Head 13th
    Tae laidir ____________ 14.5 _ 25.0 _ 4.2 _ 075 _ 104 __ 13.0 Knock, 20th*
    JD __________________14.4 _ 27.9 _ 3.8 _ 092 _ 112 __ 13.6 Belmullet
    kindredspirit __________14.4 _ 27.6 _ 5.1 _ 085 _ 105 __ 12.5 Clones
    sryanbruen ___________14.4 _ 26.1 _ 3.8 _ 108 _ 098 __ 13.7 Dublin 19th
    lostinashford__________ 14.2 _ 27.5 _ 4.6 _ 096 _ 110 __ 10.2 Malin Head

    Con Sensus ___________14.2 _ 26.4 _ 3.8 _ 090 _ 110 __ 12.2 Malin Head

    Pauldry ______________ 14.2 _ 27.0 _ 3.9 _ 085 _ 120 __ 12.0 Malin Head
    Bsal ________________ 14.1 _ 27.5 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 110 __ 12.8 Malin Head
    Rameire _____ (-1) ____14.1 _ 26.5 _ 3.1 _ 095 _ 105 __ 12.2 Malin Head
    waterways ___________ 14.1 _ 25.7 _ 2.7 _ 090 _ 111 __ 12.1 Dublin
    MrSkinner ____________14.0 _ 26.0 _ 2.4 _ 094 _ 114 __ 11.0 Malin Head 23rd**
    200motels ___________ 13.9 _ 28.2 _ 6.2 _ 078 _ 125 __ 14.9 Belmullet 20th
    Dacogawa ___________ 13.9 _ 28.1 _ 4.2 _ 110 _ 095 __ 11.7 Dublin
    Lumi ________________13.9 _ 25.7 _ 3.8 _ 090 _ 105 __ 11.7 Malin Head
    john mac ____________ 13.8 _ 26.4 _ 3.9 _ 098 _ 110 __ 13.0 Dublin 14th
    DOCARCH ____ (-1) ___ 13.8 _ 26.2 _ 2.1 _ 085 _ 115 __ 12.2 Malin Head
    Dasa29 ______________13.6 _ 26.0 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 110 __ 12.0 Belmullet

    Norma L _____________ 13.6 _ 25.5 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 10.5 (pts t.b.d. loc'n)
    ______________________________________________________________

    As of posting, 23 forecasts, Con Sensus is 12th ranked (median).

    Welcome Carnacalla, I have assumed your max is 25.5 C.

    Locations predicted for location of low max include

    Malin Head 11, Belmullet 4, Dublin 4, Knock 2, Valentia and Clones (which I believe is not in service so we'll say Ballyhaise there).

    * Tae laidir mentioned summer solstice, according to Astronomical Almanac this occurs on 20 June although quite close to midnight in civil time, so might apply to the 21st as you might expect.

    ** MrSkinner gives Brexit day as the low max, so I googled that and found 23rd of June

    Will adjust the consensus if we get any more entries. Good luck everyone !!

    (the group thinking seems to be warm, dry and sunny, obviously this is how the month will be starting so fingers crossed .... )


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Markree got 3.1c June 1 ..............already!

    In the min max Malid hd starts out of the blocks at 13.9c


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Scratch that

    June 3 2.5c Dublin Airport

    13.3c Malin Hd


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Wonder what the totals will be today... and the week ahead looks very unsettled (Wednesday and Thursday are dry though generally).... don't come crying to me and Dacogawa that this was going to be a dry month :P. We all knew it was going to be wet. Imagine that this was a dry month and I just embarrassed myself here. :pac:

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,213 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After a very warm first week ...

    IMT at 15.7 which is 2.8 above normal for the period.

    PRC only 21% of normal with nothing yet in parts of west Munster.

    SUN is 180.5% of normal, Shannon leads the way there at 211%, an average of 11.4 hours a day. From this you can deduce that normal sunshine is about five to six hours a day.

    Current hourly at Shannon (4 p.m. 8th) is 25, which may be the new max as I scanned the more likely stations and found 24.4 at Newport to be the former high, but perhaps somebody spotted something higher than that.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Saw 25.7c at Shannon on ogimet but not verified yet.


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