June 2016 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (Irish mean temperature, an average for five stations, Casement, Claremorris, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon). The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 13.6 C.

2. Predict the MAX, the highest daily maximum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the MIN, the lowest daily minimum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the PRC, the average rainfall expressed as percentage of normal at the eleven stations we normally use, which include the five mentioned for IMT and also Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Malin Head, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

5. Predict the SUN, the total sunshine expressed as a percentage of normal at the six stations used (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia).

6. For a BONUS question, predict the lowest maximum temperature of the month and name the location (date won't count for contest but add that if you wish). In case anyone needs further instructions, a low maximum equates to a cold mid-day reading, for example last week some highs of only 12-13 C were recorded around Dublin.

Enter by the deadline of 0300h on Wed 1st of June, or take the slight penalties that are assigned on first, increasing on second.

200motels

200motels

---

13.9----28.2---- 6.2---- 78----125

---

14.9 Belmullet 20th

sryanbruen

sryanbruen __________ 14.4 _ 26.1 _ 3.8 _ 108 _ 98 _ 13.7c Dublin Airport 19th

pauldry

Pauldry __________ 14.2 _ 27.0_ 3.9 _ 85_ 120 _ 12.0 Malin Head

Bsal

Bsal __________ 14.1 _ 27.5 _ 4.0 _ 90 _ 110 _ 12.8c Malin Head

jd

JDl __________ 14.4 _ 27.9 _ 3.8 _ 92 _ 112_ 13.6c Belmullet

Joe Public

Joe Public __________ 14.9 _ 23.9 _ 2.9 _ 81 _ 120_ 12.9c Malin Head 2nd

mrskinner

Skinner.......14.......26......2.4........94.......114.......11 Malin. Brexit day

mickger844posts

mickger844posts __________ 14.8 _ 26.4 _ 4.8 _ 90 _ 105 _ 12.7c Malin Head 17th

sryanbruen

Am I the only one predicting a wet and dull June? :pac:

waterways

waterways __________ 14.1 _ 25.7 _ 2.7 _ 90 _ 111 _ 12.1 Dublin

lostinashford

lostinashford 14.2----27.5---- 4.6---- 96----110

---

10.2 Malin

John mac

john mac__________ 13.8 _ 26.4_ 3.9 _ 98_ 110 _ 13.0 dublin airport 14th:D

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit.___________14.4_______27.6_______5.1________85_____105_________12.5 Clones.

Tae laidir

Tae laidir __________ 14.5 _ 25.0 _ 4.2 _ 75 _ 104 _ 13.0c Knock, Summer Solstice

sunflower3

Sunflower3 __________ 14.7 _ 25.6 _ 6.0 _ 90 _ 100 _ 13.2deg C Malin head, 23rd

dacogawa

Dacogawa __________ 13.9 _ 28.1 _ 4.2 _ 110 _ 95 _ 11.7c Dublin Airport

Lumi

Lumi __________ 13.9 _ 25.7 _ 3.8 _ 90 _ 105 _ 11.7 Malin Head

dasa29

Dasa29 __________ 13.6 _ 26.0 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 110 _ 12.0 Belmullet

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium _______ 14.5 _ 27.7 _ 3.0 _ 080 _ 130 _ 11.8 (Knock)

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _______ 13.8 _ 26.2 _ 2.1 _ 085 _ 115 _ 12.2 (Malin Head)

rameire

Rameire_______ 14.1_ 26.5 _ 3.1 _ 95 _ 105 _ 12.2 _ malin head

Jpmarn

Jpmarn

---

14.5----27.2---- 3.5---- 90----112

---

11.9 Malin Head 13th

JCX BXC

Carnacalla__________15.0__25.5__2.1__98__120_11.3 Valentia Island.

Rikand

I kept saying. I'll enter later. I'll enter later. I'll enter later.....


feck


Rikand ___ 15.0 ____ 27.0 ____ 2.0 ____ 95 ____ 130 ____ 13.0 Belmullet


P.S. Carnacalla, i think you're missing a 2 in front of your max temp..... or possibly even a 3 :eek:

M.T. Cranium

Table of Forecasts June 2016


FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Low max, loc'n
__________________________________________________________________

Rikand _______ (-3) ___ 15.0 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 095 _ 130 __ 13.0 Belmullet
Carnacalla_____ (-2) ___15.0 _ 25.5 _ 2.1 _ 098 _ 120 __ 11.3 Valentia Island
Joe Public ____________14.9 _ 23.9 _ 2.9 _ 081 _ 120 __ 12.9 Malin Head 2nd
mickger844posts ______ 14.8 _ 26.4 _ 4.8 _ 090 _ 105 __ 12.7 Malin Head 17th
Sunflower3 ___________14.7 _ 25.6 _ 6.0 _ 090 _ 100 __ 13.2 Malin Head, 23rd
M.T. Cranium _________14.5 _ 27.7 _ 3.0 _ 080 _ 130 __ 11.8 Knock
Jpmarn _____ (-2) ____ 14.5 _ 27.2 _ 3.5 _ 090 _ 112 __ 11.9 Malin Head 13th
Tae laidir ____________ 14.5 _ 25.0 _ 4.2 _ 075 _ 104 __ 13.0 Knock, 20th*
JD __________________14.4 _ 27.9 _ 3.8 _ 092 _ 112 __ 13.6 Belmullet
kindredspirit __________14.4 _ 27.6 _ 5.1 _ 085 _ 105 __ 12.5 Clones
sryanbruen ___________14.4 _ 26.1 _ 3.8 _ 108 _ 098 __ 13.7 Dublin 19th
lostinashford__________ 14.2 _ 27.5 _ 4.6 _ 096 _ 110 __ 10.2 Malin Head

Con Sensus ___________14.2 _ 26.4 _ 3.8 _ 090 _ 110 __ 12.2 Malin Head

Pauldry ______________ 14.2 _ 27.0 _ 3.9 _ 085 _ 120 __ 12.0 Malin Head
Bsal ________________ 14.1 _ 27.5 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 110 __ 12.8 Malin Head
Rameire _____ (-1) ____14.1 _ 26.5 _ 3.1 _ 095 _ 105 __ 12.2 Malin Head
waterways ___________ 14.1 _ 25.7 _ 2.7 _ 090 _ 111 __ 12.1 Dublin
MrSkinner ____________14.0 _ 26.0 _ 2.4 _ 094 _ 114 __ 11.0 Malin Head 23rd**
200motels ___________ 13.9 _ 28.2 _ 6.2 _ 078 _ 125 __ 14.9 Belmullet 20th
Dacogawa ___________ 13.9 _ 28.1 _ 4.2 _ 110 _ 095 __ 11.7 Dublin
Lumi ________________13.9 _ 25.7 _ 3.8 _ 090 _ 105 __ 11.7 Malin Head
john mac ____________ 13.8 _ 26.4 _ 3.9 _ 098 _ 110 __ 13.0 Dublin 14th
DOCARCH ____ (-1) ___ 13.8 _ 26.2 _ 2.1 _ 085 _ 115 __ 12.2 Malin Head
Dasa29 ______________13.6 _ 26.0 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 110 __ 12.0 Belmullet

Norma L _____________ 13.6 _ 25.5 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 10.5 (pts t.b.d. loc'n)
______________________________________________________________

As of posting, 23 forecasts, Con Sensus is 12th ranked (median).

Welcome Carnacalla, I have assumed your max is 25.5 C.

Locations predicted for location of low max include

Malin Head 11, Belmullet 4, Dublin 4, Knock 2, Valentia and Clones (which I believe is not in service so we'll say Ballyhaise there).

* Tae laidir mentioned summer solstice, according to Astronomical Almanac this occurs on 20 June although quite close to midnight in civil time, so might apply to the 21st as you might expect.

** MrSkinner gives Brexit day as the low max, so I googled that and found 23rd of June

Will adjust the consensus if we get any more entries. Good luck everyone !!

(the group thinking seems to be warm, dry and sunny, obviously this is how the month will be starting so fingers crossed .... )

pauldry

Markree got 3.1c June 1 ..............already!

In the min max Malid hd starts out of the blocks at 13.9c

pauldry

Scratch that

June 3 2.5c Dublin Airport

13.3c Malin Hd

sryanbruen

Wonder what the totals will be today... and the week ahead looks very unsettled (Wednesday and Thursday are dry though generally).... don't come crying to me and Dacogawa that this was going to be a dry month :P. We all knew it was going to be wet. Imagine that this was a dry month and I just embarrassed myself here. :pac:

M.T. Cranium

After a very warm first week ...

IMT at 15.7 which is 2.8 above normal for the period.

PRC only 21% of normal with nothing yet in parts of west Munster.

SUN is 180.5% of normal, Shannon leads the way there at 211%, an average of 11.4 hours a day. From this you can deduce that normal sunshine is about five to six hours a day.

Current hourly at Shannon (4 p.m. 8th) is 25, which may be the new max as I scanned the more likely stations and found 24.4 at Newport to be the former high, but perhaps somebody spotted something higher than that.

pauldry

Saw 25.7c at Shannon on ogimet but not verified yet.

M.T. Cranium

25.7 Shannon was confirmed in early part of yesterday's weather.

M.T. Cranium

The warmth continued in week two, but it became much wetter and cloudy ...

IMT now on 16.0 with the week a toasty 16.3 (2.8 above normal for the period).

PRC is now on 100% thanks to the 180% average at our eleven sites, the range among those was 93% at Valentia to 378% at Casement. Dublin was a bit drier (82%) than Valentia but it's not in the set.

SUN is now 116% of normal as the second week only managed 51% (net rounding stat -1).

Perhaps the third week will be somewhat closer to normal in all three categories.

pauldry

New Min Max 12.8.....


Not Malin Head
Not Finner


Drum rollllllllllllllllllllllllll

Casement!

Tae laidir

Knock near miss 13.0 yesterday.

pauldry

Tae laidir wrote: »

Knock near miss 13.0 yesterday.

Yup Summers over for the West ðŸ˜

sryanbruen

pauldry wrote: »

Yup Summers over for the West ðŸ˜

I can assure you it is not :cool:.

sryanbruen

Will June be wetter than normal? Well in this week from Monday-Sunday (13th-19th), there have been 4 days with at least one station recording at least 20mm of rainfall.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks of June ...

IMT now at 15.3 with the third week at 13.8, actually 0.2 below normal for that period, but the month remains well above thanks to the very warm first half.

PRC has edged up to 106 per cent of normal, as the third week ran slightly wet, at 118% of normal.

SUN has gone down below normal now, with the third week (61%) bringing the average to 97.5%.

pauldry

I think in July theyl hv to take in the roads it will be so wet. Thunderstorms are probably making up 70 per cent of the rainfall as opposed to God awful plain wet days. At least its not raining non stop.. yet

M.T. Cranium

Maybe a referendum, should Ireland remain in the Atlantic maritime climate zone, or leave?

(landslide)

Joe Public

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Maybe a referendum, should Ireland remain in the Atlantic maritime climate zone, or leave?

(landslide)

As long as it doesn't affect the trade winds.

sryanbruen

Is it looking wetter than normal overall?

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks (with projections of final values) ...

IMT on 14.9(2) with the fourth week rather cool at 13.9 which is 0.6 below average for that period. Cannot see this changing in last two days, expect it to round off to 14.9 for the final value, outside chance of 14.8.

PRC is now 112% of normal after another rather wet week at 128% on average. With the rain earlier today and expected through tomorrow, will speculate a finish at 115%.

SUN has slumped further down to 93.5% with the week at only 82% of normal (Cork did manage to reach its normal value). This will level off around 92 or 93 per cent for a final value, I think.

No changes to earlier reported max, min or bonus low maximum.

July thread is open and pinned. Scoring for June may be quite late to break, with the first being a Friday, the MS won't be available until after the weekend but also I am going away on a long weekend that includes Monday so I won't be working on scoring until Tuesday late. May post a provisional table tomorrow if I have time.

M.T. Cranium

Actually, I have time to post provisional scores now, these are before any adjustments due to "minimum progression" and assuming that the low maximum holds, it could be challenged tomorrow in the north which would alter the two point location part of the question (which right now is going to be mostly zeroes).

PROVISIONAL SCORING TABLE (see previous post for values used)

Table of Forecasts June 2016


FORECASTER _________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___Bonus______TOTAL

Rikand _______ (-3) ___ 24 _ 07 _ 15 _ 08 _ 02 __ 07 + 0 __ 63-3 = 60
Carnacalla_____ (-2) ___24 _ 18 _ 16 _ 09 _ 04 __ 03 + 0 __ 74-2 = 72
Joe Public ____________25 _ 02 _ 16 _ 04 _ 04 __ 08 + 0 ________ 59
mickger844posts ______ 24 _ 13 _ 00 _ 07 _ 07 __ 08 + 0 ________ 59
Sunflower3 ___________23 _ 19 _ 00 _ 07 _ 08 __ 06 + 0 ________ 63
M.T. Cranium _________21 _ 00 _ 15 _ 03 _ 02 __ 04 + 0 ________ 45
Jpmarn _____ (-2) ____ 21 _ 05 _ 10 _ 07 _ 06 __ 04 + 0 __ 53-2 = 51
Tae laidir ____________ 21 _ 13 _ 03 _ 02 _ 07 __ 07 + 0 ________ 53
JD __________________20 _ 00 _ 07 _ 07 _ 06 __ 05 + 0 ________ 45
kindredspirit __________20 _ 01 _ 00 _ 05 _ 07 __ 07 + 1 ________ 41
sryanbruen ___________20 _ 16 _ 07 _ 13 _ 09 __ 05 + 2 ________ 72
lostinashford__________ 18 _ 02 _ 00 _ 09 _ 06 __ 01 + 0 ________ 36

Con Sensus ___________18 _ 13 _ 07 _ 07 _ 06 __ 06 + 0 ________ 57

Pauldry ______________ 18 _ 07 _ 06 _ 05 _ 04 __ 05 + 0 ________ 45
Bsal _________________17 _ 02 _ 05 _ 07 _ 06 __ 08 + 0 ________ 45
Rameire _____ (-1) ____ 17 _ 12 _ 14 _ 08 _ 07 __ 06 + 0 __ 64-1 = 63
waterways ___________ 17 _ 20 _ 18 _ 07 _ 06 __ 05 + 2 ________ 75
MrSkinner ____________16 _ 17 _ 19 _ 08 _ 05 __ 02 + 0 ________ 67
200motels ___________ 15 _ 00 _ 00 _ 03 _ 03 __ 01 + 0 ________ 22
Dacogawa ___________ 15 _ 00 _ 03 _ 14 _ 09 __ 04 + 2 ________ 47
Lumi ________________15 _ 20 _ 07 _ 07 _ 07 __ 04 + 0 ________ 60
John mac ____________ 14 _ 13 _ 06 _ 09 _ 06 __ 07 + 2 ________ 57
DOCARCH ____ (-1) ___ 14 _ 15 _ 16 _ 05 _ 03 __ 06 + 0 __ 59-1 = 58
Dasa29 ______________12 _ 17 _ 05 _ 10 _ 04 __ 05 + 0 ________ 53

Norma L _____________ 12 _ 18 _ 10 _ 10 _ 08 __ 02 + 1 ________ 61
______________________________________________________________

It will be quite a while before I can confirm these scores so look for a final scoring post around 5th of July.

JCX BXC

Would have came second if I had posted on time!

sryanbruen

Carnacalla wrote: »

Would have came second if I had posted on time!

Yeah you're equalled with me :mad:

M.T. Cranium

I can confirm that the IMT finished on 14.9, it tried to escape (14.86) but no luck.

The PRC is 6% higher than my estimate (121%) from "monthly data" and this is because 29th averaged about 10 mm when a normal day is a little over 2 mm then the 30th was about in that average range other than Malin Head which got over 10. This meant that the 2-day mini-week was well over 200%. It would basically take away 2 points from all scores, but I may just leave them and call it minimum progression as I think that would now apply.

My SUN estimate still holds at 92% after checking the actual data (29th was more sunny than an average June day but 30th was dull, taking average at 70% reduces the estimate to 92% which is what I used to score. This will be further checked against MS on 5th.

Final point, despite some maxima in the 13-14 range yesterday, no station quite managed to displace Casement for the bonus value of 12.8 C as low maximum.

If I get a chance I may post a table of forecasts in the July thread but I am leaving early tomorrow on a four-day road trip so if that doesn't appear, look for it around the 5th also. Today looks vile there and is not that much better here.

M.T. Cranium

I have checked the MS for June and found all the provisional values to be okay given that the PRC scores are now boosted by two points of mercy rule content (so they remain the same in other words). The low max of 12.8 was almost equalled on the 1st of July (which would not have counted) with 12.9 at Knock on that occasion.

So I will get on to the annual update and post that as soon as I can. First though, I will repost the provisional scoring in the order of finish etc.

Scoring for June 2016

FORECASTER _________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___Bonus______TOTAL

waterways ___________ 17 _ 20 _ 18 _ 07 _ 06 __ 05 + 2 ________ 75
sryanbruen ___________20 _ 16 _ 07 _ 13 _ 09 __ 05 + 2 ________ 72
Carnacalla_____ (-2) ___24 _ 18 _ 16 _ 09 _ 04 __ 03 + 0 __ 74-2 = 72
MrSkinner ____________16 _ 17 _ 19 _ 08 _ 05 __ 02 + 0 ________ 67
Sunflower3 ___________23 _ 19 _ 00 _ 07 _ 08 __ 06 + 0 ________ 63
Rameire _____ (-1) ____17 _ 12 _ 14 _ 08 _ 07 __ 06 + 0 __ 64-1 = 63

Norma L _____________12 _ 18 _ 10 _ 10 _ 08 __ 02 + 1 ________ 61

Lumi ________________15 _ 20 _ 07 _ 07 _ 07 __ 04 + 0 ________ 60
Rikand _______ (-3) ___24 _ 07 _ 15 _ 08 _ 02 __ 07 + 0 __ 63-3 = 60
Joe Public ____________25 _ 02 _ 16 _ 04 _ 04 __ 08 + 0 ________ 59
mickger844posts ______ 24 _ 13 _ 00 _ 07 _ 07 __ 08 + 0 ________ 59
DOCARCH ____ (-1) ___ 14 _ 15 _ 16 _ 05 _ 03 __ 06 + 0 __ 59-1 = 58
John mac ____________ 14 _ 13 _ 06 _ 09 _ 06 __ 07 + 2 ________ 57

Con Sensus ___________18 _ 13 _ 07 _ 07 _ 06 __ 06 + 0 ________ 57

Tae laidir ____________ 21 _ 13 _ 03 _ 02 _ 07 __ 07 + 0 ________ 53
Dasa29 ______________12 _ 17 _ 05 _ 10 _ 04 __ 05 + 0 ________ 53
Jpmarn _____ (-2) ____ 21 _ 05 _ 10 _ 07 _ 06 __ 04 + 0 __ 53-2 = 51
Dacogawa ___________ 15 _ 00 _ 03 _ 14 _ 09 __ 04 + 2 ________ 47
M.T. Cranium _________21 _ 00 _ 15 _ 03 _ 02 __ 04 + 0 ________ 45
JD __________________20 _ 00 _ 07 _ 07 _ 06 __ 05 + 0 ________ 45
Pauldry ______________18 _ 07 _ 06 _ 05 _ 04 __ 05 + 0 ________ 45
Bsal ________________ 17 _ 02 _ 05 _ 07 _ 06 __ 08 + 0 ________ 45
kindredspirit __________20 _ 01 _ 00 _ 05 _ 07 __ 07 + 1 ________ 41
lostinashford__________18 _ 02 _ 00 _ 09 _ 06 __ 01 + 0 ________ 36
200motels ___________ 15 _ 00 _ 00 _ 03 _ 03 __ 01 + 0 ________ 22
______________________________________________________________

Okay, so congrats to waterways for leading the pack in June, and to Sryanbruen and Carnacalla who were tied for second after penalties. As noted, PRC scores are boosted by 2 points over raw scores.

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring for 2016


____FORECASTER ________Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun __ TOTAL ____ best 5 of 6
rank/

01 mickger844posts ________78 _ 63 _ 89 _ 68 _ 79 _ 59 ____ 436 _____ 377 (1)
02 waterways _____________ 75 _ 75 _ 58 _ 66 _ 75 _ 75 ____ 424 _____ 366 (2)

02 Con Sensus ____________ 73 _ 75 _ 77 _ 70 _ 67 _ 57 ____ 419 _____ 362 (3)

03 Lumi __________________71 _ 72 _ 89 _ 59 _ 65 _ 60 ____ 416 _____ 357 (3)
04 MrSkinner ______________83 _ 66 _ 64 _ 58 _ 73 _ 67 ____ 411 _____ 353 (4)
05 Rameire _______________ 69 _ 60 _ 70 _ 72 _ 59 _ 63 ____ 393 _____ 334 (8)
06 Sunflower3 _____________72 _ 71 _ 81 _ 43 _ 61 _ 63 ____ 391 _____ 348 (6)
07 lostinashford ___________ 69 _ 66 _ 63 _ 78 _ 77 _ 36 ____ 389 _____ 353 (5)
08t Tae laidir _____________ 86 _ 76 _ 76 _ 46 _ 47 _ 53 ____ 384 _____ 338 (7)
08t Rikand _______________ 67 _ 76 _ 54 _ 54 _ 73 _ 60 ____ 384 _____ 330 (9)
10 DOCARCH _____________ 53 _ 62 _ 61 _ 71 _ 71 _ 58 ____ 376 _____ 323 (12t)

10t Norma L ______________ 52 _ 65 _ 70 _ 57 _ 71 _ 61 ____ 376 _____ 324 (16t)

11 Dacogawa _____________ 52 _ 58 _ 89 _ 50 _ 75 _ 47 ____ 371 _____ 324 (11)
12 Jpmarn _______________ 64 _ 60 _ 47 _ 75 _ 73 _ 51 ____ 370 _____ 323 (12t)
13 M.T. Cranium ___________46 _ 62 _ 78 _ 66 _ 69 _ 45 ____ 366 _____ 321 (16)
14t Sryanbruen ___________ 27 _ 63 _ 52 _ 76 _ 65 _ 72 ____ 355 _____ 328 (10)
14t JD___________________ 69 _ 77 _ 32 _ 71 _ 61 _ 45 ____ 355 _____ 323 (12t)
14t Bsal _________________ 65 _ 66 _ 66 _ 60 _ 53 _ 45 ____ 355 _____ 310 (18)
17 Dasa29 ________________66 _ 58 _ 67 _ 53 _ 56 _ 53 ____ 353 _____ 300 (20)
18 Joe Public ______________28 _ 63 _ 65 _ 72 _ 63 _ 59 ____ 350 _____ 322 (15)
19 Pauldry________________ 53 _ 69 _ 45 _ 80 _ 56 _ 45 ____ 348 _____ 303 (19)
20 200motels _____________ 46 _ 68 _ 74 _ 61 _ 70 _ 22 ____ 341 _____ 319 (17)

21 john mac ______________ 72 _ 57 _ 36 _ 44 _ 66 _ 57 ____ 332 _____ 296 (21)
t22 kindredspirit ___________ --- _ 35 _ 65 _ 58 _ 61 _ 41 ____ 260 _____ 260 (22)
t22 Schadenfreudia _________65 _ 72 _ 58 _ 65 _ --- _ --- ____ 260 _____
24 omicron _______________ 76 _ 43 _ 72 _ --- _ --- _ --- ____ 191
25 Carnacalla ______________ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 72 ____ 72
25 Timmyboy ______________--- _ 53 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---_____ 53
26 Elmer Blooker __________ --- _ --- _ 51 _ --- _ --- _ --- _____ 51
______________________________________________________________

Well, we now have two forecasters ahead of Con Sensus and some others made significant progress, notably Sryanbruen.