June 2016 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium _______ 14.5 _ 27.7 _ 3.0 _ 080 _ 130 _ 11.8 (Knock)

Table of Forecasts June 2016


FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Low max, loc'n
__________________________________________________________________

Rikand _______ (-3) ___ 15.0 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 095 _ 130 __ 13.0 Belmullet
Carnacalla_____ (-2) ___15.0 _ 25.5 _ 2.1 _ 098 _ 120 __ 11.3 Valentia Island
Joe Public ____________14.9 _ 23.9 _ 2.9 _ 081 _ 120 __ 12.9 Malin Head 2nd
mickger844posts ______ 14.8 _ 26.4 _ 4.8 _ 090 _ 105 __ 12.7 Malin Head 17th
Sunflower3 ___________14.7 _ 25.6 _ 6.0 _ 090 _ 100 __ 13.2 Malin Head, 23rd
M.T. Cranium _________14.5 _ 27.7 _ 3.0 _ 080 _ 130 __ 11.8 Knock
Jpmarn _____ (-2) ____ 14.5 _ 27.2 _ 3.5 _ 090 _ 112 __ 11.9 Malin Head 13th
Tae laidir ____________ 14.5 _ 25.0 _ 4.2 _ 075 _ 104 __ 13.0 Knock, 20th*
JD __________________14.4 _ 27.9 _ 3.8 _ 092 _ 112 __ 13.6 Belmullet
kindredspirit __________14.4 _ 27.6 _ 5.1 _ 085 _ 105 __ 12.5 Clones
sryanbruen ___________14.4 _ 26.1 _ 3.8 _ 108 _ 098 __ 13.7 Dublin 19th
lostinashford__________ 14.2 _ 27.5 _ 4.6 _ 096 _ 110 __ 10.2 Malin Head

Con Sensus ___________14.2 _ 26.4 _ 3.8 _ 090 _ 110 __ 12.2 Malin Head

Pauldry ______________ 14.2 _ 27.0 _ 3.9 _ 085 _ 120 __ 12.0 Malin Head
Bsal ________________ 14.1 _ 27.5 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 110 __ 12.8 Malin Head
Rameire _____ (-1) ____14.1 _ 26.5 _ 3.1 _ 095 _ 105 __ 12.2 Malin Head
waterways ___________ 14.1 _ 25.7 _ 2.7 _ 090 _ 111 __ 12.1 Dublin
MrSkinner ____________14.0 _ 26.0 _ 2.4 _ 094 _ 114 __ 11.0 Malin Head 23rd**
200motels ___________ 13.9 _ 28.2 _ 6.2 _ 078 _ 125 __ 14.9 Belmullet 20th
Dacogawa ___________ 13.9 _ 28.1 _ 4.2 _ 110 _ 095 __ 11.7 Dublin
Lumi ________________13.9 _ 25.7 _ 3.8 _ 090 _ 105 __ 11.7 Malin Head
john mac ____________ 13.8 _ 26.4 _ 3.9 _ 098 _ 110 __ 13.0 Dublin 14th
DOCARCH ____ (-1) ___ 13.8 _ 26.2 _ 2.1 _ 085 _ 115 __ 12.2 Malin Head
Dasa29 ______________13.6 _ 26.0 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 110 __ 12.0 Belmullet

Norma L _____________ 13.6 _ 25.5 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 10.5 (pts t.b.d. loc'n)
______________________________________________________________

As of posting, 23 forecasts, Con Sensus is 12th ranked (median).

Welcome Carnacalla, I have assumed your max is 25.5 C.

Locations predicted for location of low max include

Malin Head 11, Belmullet 4, Dublin 4, Knock 2, Valentia and Clones (which I believe is not in service so we'll say Ballyhaise there).

* Tae laidir mentioned summer solstice, according to Astronomical Almanac this occurs on 20 June although quite close to midnight in civil time, so might apply to the 21st as you might expect.

** MrSkinner gives Brexit day as the low max, so I googled that and found 23rd of June

Will adjust the consensus if we get any more entries. Good luck everyone !!

(the group thinking seems to be warm, dry and sunny, obviously this is how the month will be starting so fingers crossed .... )

After a very warm first week ...

IMT at 15.7 which is 2.8 above normal for the period.

PRC only 21% of normal with nothing yet in parts of west Munster.

SUN is 180.5% of normal, Shannon leads the way there at 211%, an average of 11.4 hours a day. From this you can deduce that normal sunshine is about five to six hours a day.

Current hourly at Shannon (4 p.m. 8th) is 25, which may be the new max as I scanned the more likely stations and found 24.4 at Newport to be the former high, but perhaps somebody spotted something higher than that.

25.7 Shannon was confirmed in early part of yesterday's weather.

After four weeks (with projections of final values) ...

IMT on 14.9(2) with the fourth week rather cool at 13.9 which is 0.6 below average for that period. Cannot see this changing in last two days, expect it to round off to 14.9 for the final value, outside chance of 14.8.

PRC is now 112% of normal after another rather wet week at 128% on average. With the rain earlier today and expected through tomorrow, will speculate a finish at 115%.

SUN has slumped further down to 93.5% with the week at only 82% of normal (Cork did manage to reach its normal value). This will level off around 92 or 93 per cent for a final value, I think.

No changes to earlier reported max, min or bonus low maximum.

July thread is open and pinned. Scoring for June may be quite late to break, with the first being a Friday, the MS won't be available until after the weekend but also I am going away on a long weekend that includes Monday so I won't be working on scoring until Tuesday late. May post a provisional table tomorrow if I have time.

I can confirm that the IMT finished on 14.9, it tried to escape (14.86) but no luck.

The PRC is 6% higher than my estimate (121%) from "monthly data" and this is because 29th averaged about 10 mm when a normal day is a little over 2 mm then the 30th was about in that average range other than Malin Head which got over 10. This meant that the 2-day mini-week was well over 200%. It would basically take away 2 points from all scores, but I may just leave them and call it minimum progression as I think that would now apply.

My SUN estimate still holds at 92% after checking the actual data (29th was more sunny than an average June day but 30th was dull, taking average at 70% reduces the estimate to 92% which is what I used to score. This will be further checked against MS on 5th.

Final point, despite some maxima in the 13-14 range yesterday, no station quite managed to displace Casement for the bonus value of 12.8 C as low maximum.

If I get a chance I may post a table of forecasts in the July thread but I am leaving early tomorrow on a four-day road trip so if that doesn't appear, look for it around the 5th also. Today looks vile there and is not that much better here.

Annual scoring for 2016


____FORECASTER ________Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun __ TOTAL ____ best 5 of 6
rank/

01 mickger844posts ________78 _ 63 _ 89 _ 68 _ 79 _ 59 ____ 436 _____ 377 (1)
02 waterways _____________ 75 _ 75 _ 58 _ 66 _ 75 _ 75 ____ 424 _____ 366 (2)

02 Con Sensus ____________ 73 _ 75 _ 77 _ 70 _ 67 _ 57 ____ 419 _____ 362 (3)

03 Lumi __________________71 _ 72 _ 89 _ 59 _ 65 _ 60 ____ 416 _____ 357 (3)
04 MrSkinner ______________83 _ 66 _ 64 _ 58 _ 73 _ 67 ____ 411 _____ 353 (4)
05 Rameire _______________ 69 _ 60 _ 70 _ 72 _ 59 _ 63 ____ 393 _____ 334 (8)
06 Sunflower3 _____________72 _ 71 _ 81 _ 43 _ 61 _ 63 ____ 391 _____ 348 (6)
07 lostinashford ___________ 69 _ 66 _ 63 _ 78 _ 77 _ 36 ____ 389 _____ 353 (5)
08t Tae laidir _____________ 86 _ 76 _ 76 _ 46 _ 47 _ 53 ____ 384 _____ 338 (7)
08t Rikand _______________ 67 _ 76 _ 54 _ 54 _ 73 _ 60 ____ 384 _____ 330 (9)
10 DOCARCH _____________ 53 _ 62 _ 61 _ 71 _ 71 _ 58 ____ 376 _____ 323 (12t)

10t Norma L ______________ 52 _ 65 _ 70 _ 57 _ 71 _ 61 ____ 376 _____ 324 (16t)

11 Dacogawa _____________ 52 _ 58 _ 89 _ 50 _ 75 _ 47 ____ 371 _____ 324 (11)
12 Jpmarn _______________ 64 _ 60 _ 47 _ 75 _ 73 _ 51 ____ 370 _____ 323 (12t)
13 M.T. Cranium ___________46 _ 62 _ 78 _ 66 _ 69 _ 45 ____ 366 _____ 321 (16)
14t Sryanbruen ___________ 27 _ 63 _ 52 _ 76 _ 65 _ 72 ____ 355 _____ 328 (10)
14t JD___________________ 69 _ 77 _ 32 _ 71 _ 61 _ 45 ____ 355 _____ 323 (12t)
14t Bsal _________________ 65 _ 66 _ 66 _ 60 _ 53 _ 45 ____ 355 _____ 310 (18)
17 Dasa29 ________________66 _ 58 _ 67 _ 53 _ 56 _ 53 ____ 353 _____ 300 (20)
18 Joe Public ______________28 _ 63 _ 65 _ 72 _ 63 _ 59 ____ 350 _____ 322 (15)
19 Pauldry________________ 53 _ 69 _ 45 _ 80 _ 56 _ 45 ____ 348 _____ 303 (19)
20 200motels _____________ 46 _ 68 _ 74 _ 61 _ 70 _ 22 ____ 341 _____ 319 (17)

21 john mac ______________ 72 _ 57 _ 36 _ 44 _ 66 _ 57 ____ 332 _____ 296 (21)
t22 kindredspirit ___________ --- _ 35 _ 65 _ 58 _ 61 _ 41 ____ 260 _____ 260 (22)
t22 Schadenfreudia _________65 _ 72 _ 58 _ 65 _ --- _ --- ____ 260 _____
24 omicron _______________ 76 _ 43 _ 72 _ --- _ --- _ --- ____ 191
25 Carnacalla ______________ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 72 ____ 72
25 Timmyboy ______________--- _ 53 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---_____ 53
26 Elmer Blooker __________ --- _ --- _ 51 _ --- _ --- _ --- _____ 51
______________________________________________________________

Well, we now have two forecasters ahead of Con Sensus and some others made significant progress, notably Sryanbruen.