June 2016 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 28-05-2016 7:23pm #1

1. Predict the IMT (Irish mean temperature, an average for five stations, Casement, Claremorris, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon). The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 13.6 C.

2. Predict the MAX, the highest daily maximum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the MIN, the lowest daily minimum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the PRC, the average rainfall expressed as percentage of normal at the eleven stations we normally use, which include the five mentioned for IMT and also Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Malin Head, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

5. Predict the SUN, the total sunshine expressed as a percentage of normal at the six stations used (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia).

6. For a BONUS question, predict the lowest maximum temperature of the month and name the location (date won't count for contest but add that if you wish). In case anyone needs further instructions, a low maximum equates to a cold mid-day reading, for example last week some highs of only 12-13 C were recorded around Dublin.

Enter by the deadline of 0300h on Wed 1st of June, or take the slight penalties that are assigned on first, increasing on second.

200motels · 28-05-2016 11:37pm

200motels

13.9----28.2---- 6.2---- 78----125

14.9 Belmullet 20th

sryanbruen · 28-05-2016 11:42pm

sryanbruen __________ 14.4 _ 26.1 _ 3.8 _ 108 _ 98 _ 13.7c Dublin Airport 19th

pauldry · 29-05-2016 2:27am

Pauldry __________ 14.2 _ 27.0_ 3.9 _ 85_ 120 _ 12.0 Malin Head

Bsal · 30-05-2016 1:11pm

Bsal __________ 14.1 _ 27.5 _ 4.0 _ 90 _ 110 _ 12.8c Malin Head

jd · 30-05-2016 2:22pm

JDl __________ 14.4 _ 27.9 _ 3.8 _ 92 _ 112_ 13.6c Belmullet

Joe Public · 30-05-2016 10:50pm

Joe Public __________ 14.9 _ 23.9 _ 2.9 _ 81 _ 120_ 12.9c Malin Head 2nd

mrskinner · 31-05-2016 2:28pm

Skinner.......14.......26......2.4........94.......114.......11 Malin. Brexit day

mickger844posts · 31-05-2016 9:23pm

mickger844posts __________ 14.8 _ 26.4 _ 4.8 _ 90 _ 105 _ 12.7c Malin Head 17th

sryanbruen · 31-05-2016 9:24pm

Am I the only one predicting a wet and dull June? :pac:

waterways · 31-05-2016 10:16pm

waterways __________ 14.1 _ 25.7 _ 2.7 _ 90 _ 111 _ 12.1 Dublin

lostinashford · 31-05-2016 10:20pm

lostinashford 14.2----27.5---- 4.6---- 96----110

10.2 Malin

John mac · 31-05-2016 10:31pm

john mac__________ 13.8 _ 26.4_ 3.9 _ 98_ 110 _ 13.0 dublin airport 14th:D

kindredspirit · 31-05-2016 10:43pm

Kindred Spirit.___________14.4_______27.6_______5.1________85_____105_________12.5 Clones.

Tae laidir · 31-05-2016 10:57pm

Tae laidir __________ 14.5 _ 25.0 _ 4.2 _ 75 _ 104 _ 13.0c Knock, Summer Solstice

sunflower3 · 31-05-2016 11:01pm

Sunflower3 __________ 14.7 _ 25.6 _ 6.0 _ 90 _ 100 _ 13.2deg C Malin head, 23rd

dacogawa · 31-05-2016 11:06pm

Dacogawa __________ 13.9 _ 28.1 _ 4.2 _ 110 _ 95 _ 11.7c Dublin Airport

Lumi · 31-05-2016 11:35pm

Lumi __________ 13.9 _ 25.7 _ 3.8 _ 90 _ 105 _ 11.7 Malin Head

dasa29 · 01-06-2016 12:25am

Dasa29 __________ 13.6 _ 26.0 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 110 _ 12.0 Belmullet

M.T. Cranium · 01-06-2016 2:18am

M.T. Cranium _______ 14.5 _ 27.7 _ 3.0 _ 080 _ 130 _ 11.8 (Knock)

DOCARCH · 01-06-2016 5:52am

DOCARCH _______ 13.8 _ 26.2 _ 2.1 _ 085 _ 115 _ 12.2 (Malin Head)

rameire · 01-06-2016 7:14am

Rameire_______ 14.1_ 26.5 _ 3.1 _ 95 _ 105 _ 12.2 _ malin head

Jpmarn · 01-06-2016 9:53am

Jpmarn

14.5----27.2---- 3.5---- 90----112

11.9 Malin Head 13th

JCX BXC · 01-06-2016 11:18am

Carnacalla__________15.0__25.5__2.1__98__120_11.3 Valentia Island.

Rikand · 01-06-2016 3:54pm

I kept saying. I'll enter later. I'll enter later. I'll enter later.....

feck

Rikand ___ 15.0 ____ 27.0 ____ 2.0 ____ 95 ____ 130 ____ 13.0 Belmullet

P.S. Carnacalla, i think you're missing a 2 in front of your max temp..... or possibly even a 3 :eek:

M.T. Cranium · 01-06-2016 10:26pm

Table of Forecasts June 2016

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Low max, loc'n
__________________________________________________________________

Rikand _______ (-3) ___ 15.0 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 095 _ 130 __ 13.0 Belmullet
Carnacalla_____ (-2) ___15.0 _ 25.5 _ 2.1 _ 098 _ 120 __ 11.3 Valentia Island
Joe Public ____________14.9 _ 23.9 _ 2.9 _ 081 _ 120 __ 12.9 Malin Head 2nd
mickger844posts ______ 14.8 _ 26.4 _ 4.8 _ 090 _ 105 __ 12.7 Malin Head 17th
Sunflower3 ___________14.7 _ 25.6 _ 6.0 _ 090 _ 100 __ 13.2 Malin Head, 23rd
M.T. Cranium _________14.5 _ 27.7 _ 3.0 _ 080 _ 130 __ 11.8 Knock
Jpmarn _____ (-2) ____ 14.5 _ 27.2 _ 3.5 _ 090 _ 112 __ 11.9 Malin Head 13th
Tae laidir ____________ 14.5 _ 25.0 _ 4.2 _ 075 _ 104 __ 13.0 Knock, 20th*
JD __________________14.4 _ 27.9 _ 3.8 _ 092 _ 112 __ 13.6 Belmullet
kindredspirit __________14.4 _ 27.6 _ 5.1 _ 085 _ 105 __ 12.5 Clones
sryanbruen ___________14.4 _ 26.1 _ 3.8 _ 108 _ 098 __ 13.7 Dublin 19th
lostinashford__________ 14.2 _ 27.5 _ 4.6 _ 096 _ 110 __ 10.2 Malin Head

Con Sensus ___________14.2 _ 26.4 _ 3.8 _ 090 _ 110 __ 12.2 Malin Head

Pauldry ______________ 14.2 _ 27.0 _ 3.9 _ 085 _ 120 __ 12.0 Malin Head
Bsal ________________ 14.1 _ 27.5 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 110 __ 12.8 Malin Head
Rameire _____ (-1) ____14.1 _ 26.5 _ 3.1 _ 095 _ 105 __ 12.2 Malin Head
waterways ___________ 14.1 _ 25.7 _ 2.7 _ 090 _ 111 __ 12.1 Dublin
MrSkinner ____________14.0 _ 26.0 _ 2.4 _ 094 _ 114 __ 11.0 Malin Head 23rd**
200motels ___________ 13.9 _ 28.2 _ 6.2 _ 078 _ 125 __ 14.9 Belmullet 20th
Dacogawa ___________ 13.9 _ 28.1 _ 4.2 _ 110 _ 095 __ 11.7 Dublin
Lumi ________________13.9 _ 25.7 _ 3.8 _ 090 _ 105 __ 11.7 Malin Head
john mac ____________ 13.8 _ 26.4 _ 3.9 _ 098 _ 110 __ 13.0 Dublin 14th
DOCARCH ____ (-1) ___ 13.8 _ 26.2 _ 2.1 _ 085 _ 115 __ 12.2 Malin Head
Dasa29 ______________13.6 _ 26.0 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 110 __ 12.0 Belmullet

Norma L _____________ 13.6 _ 25.5 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 10.5 (pts t.b.d. loc'n)
______________________________________________________________

As of posting, 23 forecasts, Con Sensus is 12th ranked (median).

Welcome Carnacalla, I have assumed your max is 25.5 C.

Locations predicted for location of low max include

Malin Head 11, Belmullet 4, Dublin 4, Knock 2, Valentia and Clones (which I believe is not in service so we'll say Ballyhaise there).

* Tae laidir mentioned summer solstice, according to Astronomical Almanac this occurs on 20 June although quite close to midnight in civil time, so might apply to the 21st as you might expect.

** MrSkinner gives Brexit day as the low max, so I googled that and found 23rd of June

Will adjust the consensus if we get any more entries. Good luck everyone !!

(the group thinking seems to be warm, dry and sunny, obviously this is how the month will be starting so fingers crossed .... )

pauldry · 02-06-2016 9:26am

Markree got 3.1c June 1 ..............already!

In the min max Malid hd starts out of the blocks at 13.9c

pauldry · 03-06-2016 11:58am

Scratch that

June 3 2.5c Dublin Airport

13.3c Malin Hd

sryanbruen · 06-06-2016 3:19pm

Wonder what the totals will be today... and the week ahead looks very unsettled (Wednesday and Thursday are dry though generally).... don't come crying to me and Dacogawa that this was going to be a dry month :P. We all knew it was going to be wet. Imagine that this was a dry month and I just embarrassed myself here. :pac:

M.T. Cranium · 08-06-2016 4:26pm

After a very warm first week ...

IMT at 15.7 which is 2.8 above normal for the period.

PRC only 21% of normal with nothing yet in parts of west Munster.

SUN is 180.5% of normal, Shannon leads the way there at 211%, an average of 11.4 hours a day. From this you can deduce that normal sunshine is about five to six hours a day.

Current hourly at Shannon (4 p.m. 8th) is 25, which may be the new max as I scanned the more likely stations and found 24.4 at Newport to be the former high, but perhaps somebody spotted something higher than that.

pauldry · 09-06-2016 12:19am

Saw 25.7c at Shannon on ogimet but not verified yet.

June 2016 Boards forecast contest

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