All Ireland Senior Football Championship 2016

Fr Tod Umptious

Well seeing as there is one for hurling there may as well be one for football.

Here is my take on it.

Dublin are the best placed team to win back to back All Ireland championships since they were the best placed team to win back to back All Ireland championships in 2014.
Not much has changed, if fact they have improved, less all-out attack, more balanced, still have a great squad, still have big game experience, still have no real challengers until the semi final.

Leinster
Nothing to see here, Dublin will walk it.
Kildare may improve thanks to O’Neill as manager and promotion from Div 3, but you can only improve if you lose two games by 20+ points in the one season.
Leinster champion plays a B side qualifier in the QF, which may possibly put Dublin up against Monaghan, Donegal , Tyrone, Mayo or Galway, but hats about as tough as it will get to that point.

Munster
Again not much to see here.
In previous years Cork may have been seen as a banana skin for Kerry as they were in 2015, but in those years they had good league campaigns, this year they were relegated.
Kerry should win it hand enough. Munster champs play A side qualifiers in their QF, which could be one of Mayo or Roscommon, which would be semi-interesting, especially if it was Mayo.

Ulster
The most competitive province I suppose, but not necessarily the best.
Donegal or Monaghan v Tyrone looks like how the final will pan out.
Donegal have lost 5 on the trot and from looking at the Donegal thread here no one seems happy with the manager, but they have a game to get there stuff together before a possible SF v Monaghan.
Tryone had a good league getting out of Div 2, and may be in a position to take this title.
Ulster loser goes to the B side and could face Dublin in the QF, but both Donegal and Monaghan are in the B side as it is so they too could get to the QF stage.

Connacht
A few weeks ago it was all about Roscommon, but they lost their last three games v Mayo, Dublin and Kerry.
I’d still expect them to be finalists by not making the mistakes they made last year.
On the other side Mayo are likely to play Galway in Castlebar in a SF. I’d expect a Mayo win here, Galway seem to be spinning their wheels to certain extent, whereas Mayo had a better finish to the league than a start to it.
Galway would go to the B side of the qualifiers were I think they would struggle v Monaghan or Donegal.
So a mayo v Roscommon final in Castlebar which I would expect Mayo to win, but not to boss the game like they did in the league.

I’d guess QFs might look like
Dublin v Donegal/Monaghan/Tyrone/Mayo/Galway
Tyrone v Kildare/Westmeath/Donegal/Monaghan/Galway
Kerry v Roscommon/Mayo
Mayo v Cork.

So a SF of Dublin v Kerry and Mayo v Ulster
With Dublin winning the final against a Mayo team that continue to facilitate other counties in making history while not reaching their own goals.

I hope I’m wrong

PressRun

I get the feeling Kerry were slightly embarrassed by what happened last year and are out to prove a point this year. Wouldn't be too surprised if they beat Dublin in the semi.

corny

PressRun wrote: »

I get the feeling Kerry were slightly embarrassed by what happened last year and are out to prove a point this year.

Agreed.

Dublin for their part look like they're on a mission to finally back up as defending champions. Encounter against Mayo in the rain summed up their resolve.

Makes the league final encounter unusually informative imo. If Dublin win i'd be confident they'll win the AI. If Kerry win...... i'll go for Mayo.:P

Bonniedog

As Dub, the team I'd be most wary of is Tyrone. Kerry, Mayo and Donegal are the only other contenders, although all of them are vulnerable to an ambush.

As bettor, I see no value at all in any off the outrights. Much better to keep your powder dry and strike on single games later on.

Fr Tod Umptious

PressRun wrote: »

I get the feeling Kerry were slightly embarrassed by what happened last year and are out to prove a point this year. Wouldn't be too surprised if they beat Dublin in the semi.

Kerry have their issues too.

Losing their first two league games meant that they had to go to their regular guys earlier than they hoped in the league.

They have once again relied heavily on the likes of Marc O'Se and Aidan O'Mahoney.
Marc Griffin had a good league by all accounts, but he had one of those a few years ago.
And even though they have great forwards when it came down to it last year the only one they could bring on to get stuck in in the middle third was Galvin.

That being said I'd be stunned if they did not reach the SF, which of course they could also win.

Torricelli

Dublin will win it.

They will play every game at home after their first game, the GAA are building them centres of excellence and throwing money at them left right and centre. There would be something seriously wrong if they weren't winning it.

Almost as boring and predictable as the provincial championships.

Yawn.

yop

Good summary Tod. Can't argue with most of what you have.
I can't see past Dublin, Kerry though are interesting and Sunday next will tell where they are now.
Outside of those 2 then Mayo, Donegal, Tyrone and Roscommon. Cork are hard to figure out.

I'd go with Dublin as Champs and reluctantly (I never back my own teams!) Mayo as runner up.

PressRun

Cork are a funny one. A potential banana skin for any team on their day, but it really depends on which Cork team shows up.

Bonniedog

Torricelli wrote: »

Dublin will win it.

They will play every game at home after their first game, the GAA are building them centres of excellence and throwing money at them left right and centre. There would be something seriously wrong if they weren't winning it.

Almost as boring and predictable as the provincial championships.

Yawn.

Not quite as boring and predictable as people going on about a training centre that is not even finished and will be used by any club, college, county, man, woman or child who wants to.

By the way, you might check out the disbursements from central funds

seligehgit

I can't see past Dublin,slam duck for a two in a row with probably more heartbreak for Mayo.

Stoner

seligehgit wrote:

I can't see past Dublin,slam duck for a two in a row with probably more heartbreak for Mayo.

Technically speaking your heart should still be broken, so Mayo have nothing to fear.

Mayo are a little under the radar this year. It's possible that they have more options upfront that last year.

Mayo beating Kerry or Dublin this year would not surprise me.

The_Honeybadger

seligehgit wrote: »

I can't see past Dublin,slam duck for a two in a row with probably more heartbreak for Mayo.

They were also slam dunks in 2012 and 2014 after those 2011 and 2013 AI wins and were going to go on and utterly dominate for a decade in similar fashion as Kilkenny in the hurling. Winning back to backs in the football is easier said than done and there are several teams that could take Dublin on their day. They're the team to beat and deserved favourites but are not as far ahead of the pack as everybody seems to think imo.

DoctaDee

mickeyk wrote: »

They were also slam dunks in 2012 and 2014 after those 2011 and 2013 AI wins and were going to go on and utterly dominate for a decade in similar fashion as Kilkenny in the hurling. Winning back to backs in the football is easier said than done and there are several teams that could take Dublin on their day. They're the team to beat and deserved favourites but are not as far ahead of the pack as everybody seems to think imo.

I think there was a big difference in the level of expectation and level of performance of Dublin in 2012 & 2014. They clambered thru 2012 all the way to the SF - there was never a period for other than a 20 min spell in the 2nd half v Mayo, when they looked at the right level - ultimately Brogans 1 on 1 cost them the win that day, which would've been harsh on Mayo as they bossed us in nearly every area. Beating Mayo was only going to delay the inevitable - Donegal were by a good stretch the best team in the country in 2012 and deservedly won. The lack of intensity shown by Dublin for much of that year would've blown them out of the water against Donegal.

2014 was entirely different and was prefaced not so much by winning the AI, but more so that game v Kerry in 2013. That game sent the message that this team would refuse to buckle and it was reinforced during 2014 with some remarkable and of course fortuitous results ; 6 points and a man down to Mayo with 10 odd mins to go they draw and could've won, last minute point v Tyrone to qualify for league semi; 10 points down to Cork into 2nd half and they win by 7 in semi; wallop Derry by 15 after losing by 6 a month previous. They cantered thru the AI series upto the Donegal SF - little did anyone think that Laois' 11 point loss in the Leinster 1/4 final was the nearest anyone would get to them - by anyones stretch of the imagination 2014 was gonna be a slam dunk year. To keep with the basketball analogy - Donegal rejected the slam dunk and deservedly so.

So the strange thing to my mind is if they'd beaten Donegal they would've beaten Kerry but then they wouldn't have won in 2015, the loss to Donegal has in fact made Dublin a better team by addressing their defensive shortfalls.

The only thing against Dublin this year is the back to back monkey and that's very hard to dismiss. Personally I think they're a good distance ahead of the pack but I do think they will be beaten, but I can't figure how they'll be beaten . There was a comment from a pundit on RTE a few years back, basically saying that you don't have to be great for the whole of the AI campaign just be great when it matters.

We've a long list of teams beating others "on their day" If Mayo can be great when it matters then they're the winners for me.

Fr Tod Umptious

DoctaDee wrote: »

I think there was a big difference in the level of expectation and level of performance of Dublin in 2012 & 2014. They clambered thru 2012 all the way to the SF - there was never a period for other than a 20 min spell in the 2nd half v Mayo, when they looked at the right level - ultimately Brogans 1 on 1 cost them the win that day, which would've been harsh on Mayo as they bossed us in nearly every area. Beating Mayo was only going to delay the inevitable - Donegal were by a good stretch the best team in the country in 2012 and deservedly won. The lack of intensity shown by Dublin for much of that year would've blown them out of the water against Donegal.

2014 was entirely different and was prefaced not so much by winning the AI, but more so that game v Kerry in 2013. That game sent the message that this team would refuse to buckle and it was reinforced during 2014 with some remarkable and of course fortuitous results ; 6 points and a man down to Mayo with 10 odd mins to go they draw and could've won, last minute point v Tyrone to qualify for league semi; 10 points down to Cork into 2nd half and they win by 7 in semi; wallop Derry by 15 after losing by 6 a month previous. They cantered thru the AI series upto the Donegal SF - little did anyone think that Laois' 11 point loss in the Leinster 1/4 final was the nearest anyone would get to them - by anyones stretch of the imagination 2014 was gonna be a slam dunk year. To keep with the basketball analogy - Donegal rejected the slam dunk and deservedly so.

So the strange thing to my mind is if they'd beaten Donegal they would've beaten Kerry but then they wouldn't have won in 2015, the loss to Donegal has in fact made Dublin a better team by addressing their defensive shortfalls.

The only thing against Dublin this year is the back to back monkey and that's very hard to dismiss. Personally I think they're a good distance ahead of the pack but I do think they will be beaten, but I can't figure how they'll be beaten . There was a comment from a pundit on RTE a few years back, basically saying that you don't have to be great for the whole of the AI campaign just be great when it matters.

We've a long list of teams beating others "on their day" If Mayo can be great when it matters then they're the winners for me.

Your dead right.
2014 was the only slam dunk.

But they are just as primed and prepared and experienced as they were this time two years ago.

What will beat them ?
Anything really.
As we saw v Mayo last year they nearly lost.
Cluxton could have a bad day with the frees, players could be injured, the opposition may get a lucky break etc etc.

corny

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Your dead right.
2014 was the only slam dunk.

But they are just as primed and prepared and experienced as they were this time two years ago.

What will beat them ?
Anything really.
As we saw v Mayo last year they nearly lost.
Cluxton could have a bad day with the frees, players could be injured, the opposition may get a lucky break etc etc.

I don't know about 2014 being a gimme for Dublin. Thats what i thought on this thread in early 2014.

corny wrote: »

I'd be surprised if Dublin match the level they reached last year. They may still have enough but they won't win it convincingly as many suggest. More likely they lose a semi imo.

Don't fancy Mayo to match last years level either and i don't think they have enough in hand in terms of ability to compensate for that. Same as Dublin surprised if they win it.

Kerry will have lots writing them off again but i'd make them tentative favourites. Much to my surprise they didn't weaken against Dublin last year so the talk of ageing legs isn't justified. Break of ball needs to go their way this time but they're certainly capable.

The signs were there in 2014 as the season dragged on too. Average league glossed over by playing two brittle sides in the knockout phases. Thats all we could go on because Donegal were the first capable team they played in the championship. In short, I think the media built Dublin up as the unstoppable force but with a bit of thought it was obvious they weren't. Better than 2012 but still not good enough.

Remains to be seen if 2016 is just another year where the defending champions are lacklustre but Dublins league campaign to date sets a new narrative for them imo.

Jayop

That's an excellent round up Tod. If you're right in the technicalities of how the draws for the quarter and semi's will go and we can win Ulster then Tyrone have a chance of getting to the final. That all relies on us getting Mayo in a Semi though as I can't see us getting past Dublin or Kerry. Personally I think Tyrone will win Ulster this year (I do every year) but we won't make the AI final. Sadly for us I think this is the key year if we were to have a chance of winning the AI as Cavanagh will probably call it quits this year. The young lads are making a huge impact now but we need him flying to go the whole way.

As last year the 3 provinces in the south will be boring as f. Ulster could be won by 4 counties so that'll be exciting at least. There should be at least 2 good quarters and hopefully the semi's and final will be competitive.

Fr Tod Umptious

Jayop wrote: »

That's an excellent round up Tod. If you're right in the technicalities of how the draws for the quarter and semi's will go and we can win Ulster then Tyrone have a chance of getting to the final. That all relies on us getting Mayo in a Semi though as I can't see us getting past Dublin or Kerry. Personally I think Tyrone will win Ulster this year (I do every year) but we won't make the AI final. Sadly for us I think this is the key year if we were to have a chance of winning the AI as Cavanagh will probably call it quits this year. The young lads are making a huge impact now but we need him flying to go the whole way.

As last year the 3 provinces in the south will be boring as f. Ulster could be won by 4 counties so that'll be exciting at least. There should be at least 2 good quarters and hopefully the semi's and final will be competitive.

Ulster champ plays Connacht champ in a SF if they get there, so Tyrone v Mayo is a possibility

But Ulster loser plays Leinster champion if they get past the B side 4th round qualifier.
And Connacht\Munster losers plays Munster\Connacht champion if they get past the A side 4th round qualifier.

So once again no matter how many times we will be told that the provincial championships don’t meant anything anymore, the opposite is true if you have ambition and wish to avoid the other big teams once the All Ireland series starts.

Fr Tod Umptious

corny wrote: »

I don't know about 2014 being a gimme for Dublin. Thats what i thought on this thread in early 2014.



The signs were there in 2014 as the season dragged on too. Average league glossed over by playing two brittle sides in the knockout phases. Thats all we could go on because Donegal were the first capable team they played in the championship. In short, I think the media built Dublin up as the unstoppable force but with a bit of thought it was obvious they weren't. Better than 2012 but still not good enough.

Remains to be seen if 2016 is just another year where the defending champions are lacklustre but Dublins league campaign to date sets a new narrative for them imo.

Well nothing is ever a gimme, but in relation to where a team is at the beginning of the season then Dublin are in a good place when trying to win two in a row.
Strong panel, experience, youth, having won it more than once recently therefore less chance of a ‘hangover’, etc.

Jayop

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Ulster champ plays Connacht champ in a SF if they get there, so Tyrone v Mayo is a possibility

But Ulster loser plays Leinster champion if they get past the B side 4th round qualifier.
And Connacht\Munster losers plays Munster\Connacht champion if they get past the A side 4th round qualifier.

So once again no matter how many times we will be told that the provincial championships don’t meant anything anymore, the opposite is true if you have ambition and wish to avoid the other big teams once the All Ireland series starts.

I don't think that was said too often about Ulster but I take your point. I don't think that they don't mean anything per-say it's just that they're not competitive anymore.

• In Ulster you have Tyrone, Donegal, Cavan, Monaghan, Maybe even Derry in with a shout.
• Kerry will win Munster and will continue to do so until Cork get their arses into gear.
• Mayo will win Connacht and will do so for the forseeable. Galway are in an amazing rut that they don't look like getting out of and although the Rossies had a great start to the league Mayo in the Championship will still be some way apart from them.
• Dublin are miles ahead of anyone in Leinster. Like Galway and Rosscommon Kildare and Meath really need to get their acts together.

At least we've a decent spread of the good teams though the country and on their day the best of any of the 4 provinces could beat any of the others.

Winning Ulster is massive. Avoiding Dublin is pretty much the be all and end all at this stage. Otherwise you'd be better of going out of Ulster before the final.

Hammer Archer

This is probably the least enthusiastic I've ever been at the start of a championship season. We may beat Louth (assuming they beat Carlow) but then it'll be the usual humiliation at the hands of the Dubs. Then barring an exceptionally lucky draw, we're likely to lose once again in the qualifiers (we haven't won a qualifier since 2011). I'm nearly wanting our championship to end ASAP so as to get the club championship back up and running.

It's getting close to the point of no return in Leinster I feel. Apart from our decent minor sides of 2011-2012, we have produced nothing but mediocre underage sides. Kildare have had much better minor and U21 sides but you'd have to wonder what impact it'll have if they get hockeyed by Dublin again this year. This will be Dublin's 5th Leinster in a row, and in the last three they have literally not had to break a sweat. Their wins in the past 3 years in Leinster have been by margins of 13, 19, 27, 16, 16, 11, 7, 16, 16. Can see the attendance figures in the province at an all time low, especially outside of Dublin.

Jayop

Hammer Archer wrote: »

This is probably the least enthusiastic I've ever been at the start of a championship season. We may beat Louth (assuming they beat Carlow) but then it'll be the usual humiliation at the hands of the Dubs. Then barring an exceptionally lucky draw, we're likely to lose once again in the qualifiers (we haven't won a qualifier since 2011). I'm nearly wanting our championship to end ASAP so as to get the club championship back up and running.

It's getting close to the point of no return in Leinster I feel. Apart from our decent minor sides of 2011-2012, we have produced nothing but mediocre underage sides. Kildare have had much better minor and U21 sides but you'd have to wonder what impact it'll have if they get hockeyed by Dublin again this year. This will be Dublin's 5th Leinster in a row, and in the last three they have literally not had to break a sweat. Their wins in the past 3 years in Leinster have been by margins of 13, 19, 27, 16, 16, 11, 7, 16, 16. Can see the attendance figures in the province at an all time low, especially outside of Dublin.

You'd nearly want to take the Dubs out of croker if it gets really bad attendance wise just to create a bit of interest, but the other counties never seem to want to do that, preferring the big pay day from the gates at Croker.

cj maxx

Jayop wrote: »

You'd nearly want to take the Dubs out of croker if it gets really bad attendance wise just to create a bit of interest, but the other counties never seem to want to do that, preferring the big pay day from the gates at Croker.

True , though they will walk through leinster anyway, much like kerry will in munster.
Tyrone i expect to win ulster . I havent seen them but neither monaghan or donegal have that cuttong edge tyrone showed last year . Good qualifiers runs for then though.
Counaught i would still go for mayo
Dubs look a step above everyone so they are deserved favourite for AI

Jayop

cjmc wrote: »

True , though they will walk through leinster anyway, much like kerry will in munster.
Tyrone i expect to win ulster . I havent seen them but neither monaghan or donegal have that cuttong edge tyrone showed last year . Good qualifiers runs for then though.
Counaught i would still go for mayo
Dubs look a step above everyone so they are deserved favourite for AI

Aye Dublin are class so they deserve to be strong favorites but Sunday could be an indication of where Kerry are.

Wouldn't be sure about Tyrone winning Ulster. It's probably more open than its been in years.

ProudDUB

Jayop wrote: »

Aye Dublin are class so they deserve to be strong favorites but Sunday could be an indication of where Kerry are.

Wouldn't be sure about Tyrone winning Ulster. It's probably more open than its been in years.

It's April. Next Sunday isn't going to give anyone an indication of where anyone else is going to be at in 4-5 months time. It just gives them an indication of where they are now. Regardless of the outcome of Sunday, everyone still has a lot of work to do.

Jayop

ProudDUB wrote: »

It's April. Next Sunday isn't going to give anyone an indication of where anyone else is going to be at in 4-5 months time. It just gives them an indication of where they are now. Regardless of the outcome of Sunday, everyone still has a lot of work to do.

I know what you're saying and I don't disagree especially when it comes to Kerry, but I do feel that they'll take this one a bit more seriously than normal given it's significance. A big game infront of a big crowd at HQ will show us where they both are now.

seligehgit

There is little doubt about it,Kerry will be very anxious to lay down a marker on Sunday.Dublin have a bit of an Indian sign over them in recent times.It would be a significant psychological boost to stop this rot with a league title win.

Fr Tod Umptious

Jayop wrote: »

I know what you're saying and I don't disagree especially when it comes to Kerry, but I do feel that they'll take this one a bit more seriously than normal given it's significance. A big game infront of a big crowd at HQ will show us where they both are now.

A league final will always be taken seriously regardless of who is playing.

It will show us were they both are now with regard to what has happened over the last 8 games, but the game itself will not necessarily show us where they both are now with regard to the upcoming championship.

ProudDUB

Jayop wrote: »

I know what you're saying and I don't disagree especially when it comes to Kerry, but I do feel that they'll take this one a bit more seriously than normal given it's significance. A big game infront of a big crowd at HQ will show us where they both are now.

I think some people are getting carried away with it being Dublin v Kerry, in Croke Park, with a trophy at stake, in front of a sell out crowd, with all the 1916 hoopla added in for good measure. Add in the story lines that Kerry are out for redemption, want to lay down a marker and what have you & its tempting to turn this game into something it isn't. Strip all of the extraneous stuff away, and it is still only a league game in April.

Whatever we see on Sunday will show us where Dublin and Kerry are at in April, (with a healthy dose of cards being kept close to chests.) It is not a given that the game or the result, will have any bearing on games played 4-5 months from now. So I am not going to lose any sleep, or get too excited about the outcome.

Bonniedog

ProudDUB wrote: »

I think some people are getting carried away with it being Dublin v Kerry, in Croke Park, with a trophy at stake, in front of a sell out crowd, with all the 1916 hoopla added in for good measure. Add in the story lines that Kerry are out for redemption, want to lay down a marker and what have you & its tempting to turn this game into something it isn't. Strip all of the extraneous stuff away, and it is still only a league game in April.

Whatever we see on Sunday will show us where Dublin and Kerry are at in April, (with a healthy dose of cards being kept close to chests.) It is not a given that the game or the result, will have any bearing on games played 4-5 months from now. So I am not going to lose any sleep, or get too excited about the outcome.

Yerra, will you shtop my good man

ProudDUB

Whist Cait Jim. I'm an old woman now with one foot in the grave...

DoctaDee

ProudDUB wrote: »

Whist Cait Jim. I'm an old woman now with one foot in the grave...

Mrs Bucket ? .. I thought you looked overdressed for Croker the last time I see ya