DGW33 Captain

Ziegler1988

TC active

jimmii

Lukaku no TC but given your recent run I might just copy you as you seem to be nailing everything right now!

Necronomicon

Am I mad for hesitating on Lukaku?

The leader I'm chasing doesn't have him, which could obviously change, but assuming that remains the case then he will most likely captain Aguero. Having watched Everton yesterday, I'm not entirely convinced that Lukaku will outscore Aguero across two games. And if the leader doesn't get him, then he'll be a differential just to have.

Ziegler1988

Necronomicon wrote: »

Am I mad for hesitating on Lukaku?

The leader I'm chasing doesn't have him, which could obviously change, but assuming that remains the case then he will most likely captain Aguero. Having watched Everton yesterday, I'm not entirely convinced that Lukaku will outscore Aguero across two games. And if the leader doesn't get him, then he'll be a differential just to have.

Never captain a SGWer over a DGWer has to be one of the top 10 rules in FPL

FHFC

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

TC active

Like Jimmi had ruled out TC lukaku although not seen the Sunday highlights yet, but you going for him alone makes it worth considering further!

Care to make the case for TC on a known FPL troll with 8 blanks in 11 GWs??

His points since GW20 are 2, 2, 2, 1, 9, 2, 5 ,7, 2, 2

km79

reluctantly lukaku
had ageuro earmarked for weeks until this became an Everton DGW
I went aguero in a SGW over Kane on a DGW last year and I will never do that again!

Ziegler1988

FHFC wrote: »

Like Jimmi had ruled out TC lukaku although not seen the Sunday highlights yet, but you going for him alone makes it worth considering further!

Care to make the case for TC on a known FPL troll with 8 blanks in 11 GWs??

His points since GW20 are 2, 2, 2, 1, 9, 2, 5 ,7, 2, 2

Watford are on holiday mode now and Palace have conceded 2.17 goals/match at home in 2016. Lukaku has average 6.67 points/match away to bottom half sides this season (6.46 pts/match home and away) so he's a bit of a flat track bully. That 1 pointer you mention includes going off at HT against Newcastle and the 7 pointer was a 9 point swing penalty miss.

FHFC

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

Watford are on holiday mode now and Palace have conceded 2.17 goals/match at home in 2016. Lukaku has average 6.67 points/match away to bottom half sides this season (6.46 pts/match home and away) so he's a bit of a flat track bully. That 1 pointer you mention includes going off at HT against Newcastle and the 7 pointer was a 9 point swing penalty miss.

Good points. Thanks. Could do it yet if just to troll Busts...

lougal88

I'm going with normal captaincy and saving the TC for Payet/CHE/MNU/LIV player in 37.

The main reason being this: Every man, woman and fish will either Captain/Triple captain Lukaku this week.
Therefore I may miss out on 1/3 of his points e.g. he scores 20 pts across the 2 games, I get 40 while the rest get 60.
That's 20 points I could more than make up by TCing somebody like Payet while the mob go with Aguero/Kane.

Also I'm chasing so no point going with the grain.

Scorpion Sting

Wildcard active, going for Lukaku. Looking to keep my remarkable run of captaincy successes going.

Ziegler1988

lougal88 wrote: »

I'm going with normal captaincy and saving the TC for Payet/CHE/MNU/LIV player in 37.

The main reason being this: Every man, woman and fish will either Captain/Triple captain Lukaku this week.
Therefore I may miss out on 1/3 of his points e.g. he scores 20 pts across the 2 games, I get 40 while the rest get 60.
That's 20 points I could more than make up by TCing somebody like Payet while the mob go with Aguero/Kane.

Also I'm chasing so no point going with the grain.

The other side of that coin is that at least if TC Lukaku fails this week then everyone's normal captain failed. If your DGW37 TC fails and was less than 50% poll choice then someone that TCed someone else could smash you. Not that psychology matters too much, it's all about the points. I'd probably take the Aguero Villa TC now if you gave it to me

FHFC

lougal88 wrote: »

I'm going with normal captaincy and saving the TC for Payet/CHE/MNU/LIV player in 37.

The main reason being this: Every man, woman and fish will either Captain/Triple captain Lukaku this week.
Therefore I may miss out on 1/3 of his points e.g. he scores 20 pts across the 2 games, I get 40 while the rest get 60.
That's 20 points I could more than make up by TCing somebody like Payet while the mob go with Aguero/Kane.

Also I'm chasing so no point going with the grain.

Have to say I don't go with this argument at all. Sure a differential TC like Payet will gain huge ground that gameweek if successful but on the season as a whole and your final OR thats largely irrelevant apart from the satisfaction of a huge green arrow.

The TC chip simply put gives you one extra captain bonus in the season. It doesn't matter if everyone has Lukaku captain this week, if he scores 20 you've got a 20 point gain on them. Your one shot at an extra captain bonus has got you 20 points.

If the Lukaku normal captainers don't get 20 points from whatever week they do play their TC then you're winning.

Its purely down to what you get as your one TC bonus in the season vs what everyone else does. You play your TC the week you think it is most likely to get the highest score regardless of how highly captained the player may be that week IMO. That's one of the reasons it really has to be played in a DGW as you have better odds of a higher score as Aguero style 25 pointers in a SGW are very very rare.

lougal88

FHFC wrote: »

Have to say I don't go with this argument at all. Sure a differential TC like Payet will gain huge ground that gameweek if successful but on the season as a whole and your final OR thats largely irrelevant apart from the satisfaction of a huge green arrow.

The TC chip simply put gives you one extra captain bonus in the season. It doesn't matter if everyone has Lukaku captain this week, if he scores 20 you've got a 20 point gain on them. Your one shot at an extra captain bonus has got you 20 points.

If the Lukaku normal captainers don't get 20 points from whatever week they do play their TC then you're winning.

Its purely down to what you get as your one TC bonus in the season vs what everyone else does. You play your TC the week you think it is most likely to get the highest score regardless of how highly captained the player may be that week IMO. That's one of the reasons it really has to be played in a DGW as you have better odds of a higher score as Aguero style 25 pointers in a SGW are very very rare.

Maybe I'm not articulating it well enough, if so I apologize.

Let me try another angle. This week Lukaku captaincy will be higher than probably most anybody in any other week i.e. Aguero vs Villa.
In the Aguero v Villa example, he got 11 pts (X3 for TC, x2 for me and most others).

So basically the TC brigade that week made 11 more than me.
Again this week Lukuku will have huge captaincy. So if I go normal captaincy I wont lose that much ground on the TC for this week.

This is my view on it.
If I TC Payet in 37, there are at least 4/5 other big options for normal captaincy that week. So it wont be a case of 90% or more captaining him.
Meaning it'd be enough of a differential to captain, let alone a TC.


I'm not looking at it from a POV of just getting one big green arrow, I'm looking to gain ground as I am at OR 300k.
I need to roll the dice and IMO this is not the week for it.

It's just my 2 cents. May not be useful to anybody else, but I think for people chasing in money leagues that TCing Lukaku this week when everybody else has captained him already wont gain you much ground.

Iused2likebusts

FHFC wrote: »

Have to say I don't go with this argument at all. Sure a differential TC like Payet will gain huge ground that gameweek if successful but on the season as a whole and your final OR thats largely irrelevant apart from the satisfaction of a huge green arrow.

The TC chip simply put gives you one extra captain bonus in the season. It doesn't matter if everyone has Lukaku captain this week, if he scores 20 you've got a 20 point gain on them. Your one shot at an extra captain bonus has got you 20 points.

If the Lukaku normal captainers don't get 20 points from whatever week they do play their TC then you're winning.

Its purely down to what you get as your one TC bonus in the season vs what everyone else does. You play your TC the week you think it is most likely to get the highest score regardless of how highly captained the player may be that week IMO. That's one of the reasons it really has to be played in a DGW as you have better odds of a higher score as Aguero style 25 pointers in a SGW are very very rare.

Your starting to sound like me. Lukaku normal captain for me.

FHFC

lougal88 wrote: »

Maybe I'm not articulating it well enough, if so I apologize.

Let me try another angle. This week Lukaku captaincy will be higher than probably most anybody in any other week i.e. Aguero vs Villa.
In the Aguero v Villa example, he got 11 pts (X3 for TC, x2 for me and most others).

So basically the TC brigade that week made 11 more than me.
Again this week Lukuku will have huge captaincy. So if I go normal captaincy I wont lose that much ground on the TC for this week.

This is my view on it.
If I TC Payet in 37, there are at least 4/5 other big options for normal captaincy that week. So it wont be a case of 90% or more captaining him.
Meaning it'd be enough of a differential to captain, let alone a TC.


I'm not looking at it from a POV of just getting one big green arrow, I'm looking to gain ground as I am at OR 300k.
I need to roll the dice and IMO this is not the week for it.

It's just my 2 cents. May not be useful to anybody else, but I think for people chasing in money leagues that TCing Lukaku this week when everybody else has captained him already wont gain you much ground.

I get what you are saying. I just think it's flawed logic.

Break it down a bit.

Think of your captain's or triple captain's score as being.
A. The players score
B. Your captain bonus.
C. Your triple capt bonus.

Everyone who captains Lukaku next week gets A and B. People who triple captain get C as well. The bigger number you get for C above the better. Cause the rest of the world will get a C a different week so the only way you gain is if your C is bigger then their C. As the actress said to the vicar.

If you normal captain Lukaku next week and he scores 20 you get A and B. If you then TC Payet in 37 and he scores 15 you are not gaining. You lose. By 5 points but you still lose. You may gain a nice ranking boost that week, especially if the other popular captains blank. But overall in terms of gain from your TC Chip its a fail. Your rank would be higher in the above scenario if you had TCd Lukaku in 33 and normal Cd Payet in 37. You would have 5 more points.

This is why it's slightly different from the normal captaincy. You get 38 shots at that and over the season there will be times.to go differential and times to go mainstream depending on your position. But everyone only gets one TC and to gain ground with it you need to get a higher TC score than everyone else.

Welcome to the Busts world of Quantum FPL Theory. I'm just an apprentice. If you want to be properly confused ask the Prof himself.

km79

FHFC wrote: »

I get what you are saying. I just think it's flawed logic.

Break it down a bit.

Think of your captain's or triple captain's score as being.
A. The players score
B. Your captain bonus.
C. Your triple capt bonus.

Everyone who captains Lukaku next week gets A and B. People who triple captain get C as well. The bigger number you get for C above the better. Cause the rest of the world will get a C a different week so the only way you gain is if your C is bigger then their C. As the actress said to the vicar.

If you normal captain Lukaku next week and he scores 20 you get A and B. If you then TC Payet in 37 and he scores 15 you are not gaining. You lose. By 5 points but you still lose. You may gain a nice ranking boost that week, especially if the other popular captains blank. But overall in terms of gain from your TC Chip its a fail. Your rank would be higher in the above scenario if you had

This is why it's slightly different from the normal captaincy. You get 38 shots at that and over the season there will be times.to go differential and times to go mainstream depending on your position. But everyone only gets one TC and to gain ground with it you need to get a higher TC score than everyone else.

Welcome to the Busts world of Quantum FPL Theory. I'm just an apprentice. If you want to be properly confused ask the Prof himself.

Hhhhmmmmmm interesting

lougal88

FHFC wrote: »

I get what you are saying. I just think it's flawed logic.

Break it down a bit.

Think of your captain's or triple captain's score as being.
A. The players score
B. Your captain bonus.
C. Your triple capt bonus.

Everyone who captains Lukaku next week gets A and B. People who triple captain get C as well. The bigger number you get for C above the better. Cause the rest of the world will get a C a different week so the only way you gain is if your C is bigger then their C. As the actress said to the vicar.

If you normal captain Lukaku next week and he scores 20 you get A and B. If you then TC Payet in 37 and he scores 15 you are not gaining. You lose. By 5 points but you still lose. You may gain a nice ranking boost that week, especially if the other popular captains blank. But overall in terms of gain from your TC Chip its a fail. Your rank would be higher in the above scenario if you had TCd Lukaku in 33 and normal Cd Payet in 37. You would have 5 more points.

This is why it's slightly different from the normal captaincy. You get 38 shots at that and over the season there will be times.to go differential and times to go mainstream depending on your position. But everyone only gets one TC and to gain ground with it you need to get a higher TC score than everyone else.

Welcome to the Busts world of Quantum FPL Theory. I'm just an apprentice. If you want to be properly confused ask the Prof himself.

Ok so this week I get Lukaku's A and B, I realize the bigger the C I get the better.

However, Lukaku's current ownership is 1.43m and rising. Im gonna go on a limb and say this week about 1.4m of those will at least normal captain (A + and of those, probably a good 400k will TC (A + B + C).

Whereas, the point I'm failing to make (:P) is that, Payet current ownership is 1.155m. In GW37, and I'm only spit-balling here, possibly about 200-300k will normal captain him, with a lot less maybe 50k using TC on him like I plan to.

So he could fail spectacularly of course, but if he hits 20 there I get 60. Plus the 40 from Lukaku for normal captaincy this week = 100.

Whereas the other specimen who TC Lukaku this week and gets his 60, may not even own Payet let alone captain him that week.

In theory Im gaining about 20 points, if he captains somebody else who doesn't explode.

Yes, it may be a bullsh*t theory but its mine! And I'm sticking to my guns lol

FHFC

lougal88 wrote: »

Ok so this week I get Lukaku's A and B, I realize the bigger the C I get the better.

However, Lukaku's current ownership is 1.43m and rising. Im gonna go on a limb and say this week about 1.4m of those will at least normal captain (A + and of those, probably a good 400k will TC (A + B + C).

Whereas, the point I'm failing to make (:P) is that, Payet current ownership is 1.155m. In GW37, and I'm only spit-balling here, possibly about 200-300k will normal captain him, with a lot less maybe 50k using TC on him like I plan to.

So he could fail spectacularly of course, but if he hits 20 there I get 60. Plus the 40 from Lukaku for normal captaincy this week = 100.

Whereas the other specimen who TC Lukaku this week and gets his 60, may not even own Payet let alone captain him that week.

In theory Im gaining about 20 points, if he captains somebody else who doesn't explode.

Yes, it may be a bullsh*t theory but its mine! And I'm sticking to my guns lol

If Lukaku gets 20 and Payet gets 20 your rank etc (in so far as its affected by your TC choice) will be identical. Ownership matters not to triple captains young padwan. For your normal captaincy bonus (your 'B') you would gain if Payet as a differential captain in 37 came home vs the main popular highly owned captains that week.

For the Triple Captain.....
Your C bigger than their C....
Your C bigger than their C....
Your C bigger than their C....
Your C bigger than their C....
Your C bigger than their C....
Cue music.
Fade to black.

lougal88

FHFC wrote: »

If Lukaku gets 20 and Payet gets 20 your rank etc (in so far as its affected by your TC choice) will be identical. Ownership matters not to triple captains young padwan. For your normal captaincy bonus (your 'B') you would gain if Payet as a differential captain in 37 came home vs the main popular highly owned captains that week.

For the Triple Captain.....
Your C bigger than their C....
Your C bigger than their C....
Your C bigger than their C....
Your C bigger than their C....
Your C bigger than their C....
Cue music.
Fade to black.

If you don't TC Lukaku after all this advice I will be so cross!!

Arbitrary

TC Lukaku V Barkley activated.

Everton opted for a more conservative approach vs united and Barkley played much deeper. It may have been an overreaction to the spanking they got from Arsenal.

They will line up to win games and score goals vs Palace and Watford. My bench boost is being played the following week and I'm not convinced on GW 37 options so this is the best opportunity I can see for the TC.

Also, this will be on big Rom's mind, he has two games in hand to close the gap on Harry.

http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/premier-league/top-scorers

dr.kenneth noisewater

Do the people who are picking Aguero not have any DGW players??

FHFC

lougal88 wrote: »

If you don't TC Lukaku after all this advice I will be so cross!!

Its a tough call and Ziegler made a good case.

In my logic it's a matter of whether I think I can get a higher C from one of the GW37 options as opposed to Lukaku this week. It makes no difference to me if Lukaku is 95% captained this week.

Very hard to call on the GW37 options this far in advance. Even with Payet, West Ham could be out of the race for 4th or 5th at this stage and could be in a cup final. Last game at Boleyn yes, but United could still be chasing 4th and out of the cup. On the other hand Chelsea and their experimental side with nothing to play for and Mr Conte to impress could be scoring goals for fun by then.

Its a coin toss to a degree, and I am somewhat tempted by the attraction of just getting rid of the fcuking thing.

km79

FHFC wrote: »

Its a tough call and Ziegler made a good case.

In my logic it's a matter of whether I think I can get a higher C from one of the GW37 options as opposed to Lukaku this week. It makes no difference to me if Lukaku is 95% captained this week.

Very hard to call on the GW37 options this far in advance. Even with Payet, West Ham could be out of the race for 4th or 5th at this stage and could be in a cup final. Last game at Boleyn yes, but United could still be chasing 4th and out of the cup. On the other hand Chelsea and their experimental side with nothing to play for and Mr Conte to impress could be scoring goals for fun by then.

Its a coin toss to a degree, and I am somewhat tempted by the attraction of just getting rid of the fcuking thing.

Yes the last bit is tempting me too

lougal88

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

The other side of that coin is that at least if TC Lukaku fails this week then everyone's normal captain failed. If your DGW37 TC fails and was less than 50% poll choice then someone that TCed someone else could smash you. Not that psychology matters too much, it's all about the points. I'd probably take the Aguero Villa TC now if you gave it to me

Having read this again several times, doubted everything I ever learned, read through FHFS's subliminal messages, smoked several cigarettes (I'm not a smoker) and confused myself to the point of nausea, I think I will TC Lukaku this week.

As a wise man once said "I am tempted by the attraction of just getting rid of the fcuking thing."

Kankan14

Lukaku (tc).

Massive pot rolled over in a match bet I have with a mate.

One time you

Big
Beautiful
Belgian
Bastard

Paully D

Lukaku normal captain.

Saving the TC for Sanchez next week.

ElTel

Paully D wrote: »

Lukaku normal captain.

Saving the TC for Sanchez next week.

My thoughts exactly.

lougal88

Paully D wrote: »

Lukaku normal captain.

Saving the TC for Sanchez next week.

ElTel wrote: »

My thoughts exactly.

How many doublers do you have for 34?

ElTel

lougal88 wrote: »

How many doublers do you have for 34?

9 if I don't count Hennessey and assume Firmino is fit (and still in my squad as he bleeds value and potential replacements rise in cost)
Cech
Sakho Mangala Ake
Payet Firmino Sanchez
Aguero Lukaku

Plan is hold Fuchs so Toby and Ake on the chopping block.
Alli Mahrez and Vardy are all transferable depending on which Man Utd players I go for.
Of course I've only Hennessey and Lukaku as DGWs for this GW. Not in love with the idea of adding more of them (Bolasie or Barkley probably) as I'm mindful of blankers in GW35

iroced

FHFC wrote: »

I get what you are saying. I just think it's flawed logic.

Break it down a bit.

Think of your captain's or triple captain's score as being.
A. The players score
B. Your captain bonus.
C. Your triple capt bonus.

Everyone who captains Lukaku next week gets A and B. People who triple captain get C as well. The bigger number you get for C above the better. Cause the rest of the world will get a C a different week so the only way you gain is if your C is bigger then their C. As the actress said to the vicar.

If you normal captain Lukaku next week and he scores 20 you get A and B. If you then TC Payet in 37 and he scores 15 you are not gaining. You lose. By 5 points but you still lose. You may gain a nice ranking boost that week, especially if the other popular captains blank. But overall in terms of gain from your TC Chip its a fail. Your rank would be higher in the above scenario if you had TCd Lukaku in 33 and normal Cd Payet in 37. You would have 5 more points.

This is why it's slightly different from the normal captaincy. You get 38 shots at that and over the season there will be times.to go differential and times to go mainstream depending on your position. But everyone only gets one TC and to gain ground with it you need to get a higher TC score than everyone else.

Welcome to the Busts world of Quantum FPL Theory. I'm just an apprentice. If you want to be properly confused ask the Prof himself.

The flaw in your Bustian reasoning is that it only works if your TC is the same captain than your opponent(s). And vice versa.

Let's take lougal example.

This week. Evreyone or so will C Lukaku. Let's say he gets 20 pts. TCers 60 pts. (C)ers 40 pts. Owners 20 pts. Non owners 0 pt (well their actual (C) pts, prob Aguero). On FFS (C) poll Aguero is at 7%. So the ones who will captain him have to be factored too. Do they also own Lukaku and don' trust him or do they (C) Aguero because they don't own Lukaku? This is to be factored also.
Anyway, let's assume most own both and will (C) Lukaku. (C)ers will lose out 20 pts over TCers.

Now. Let's go to GW37. (C) candidates are Payet, Coutinho/Firmino, Pedro/Costa, Mata/Martial/..., Lukaku.
So, let's say Payet gets 15 pts, Coutinho/Firmino/Pedro/Costa/Mata/Martial less or equal than 10 and Lukaku double blanks (4pts).
Payet TC 45 pts. So the minimum relative gain over all other normal captain options is 25 pts. In this situation a lower "absolute" TC return makes you gain more "relative" ground overall!

The only players you'd lose pts from are the ones who TC Lukaku GW33 and (C) Payet GW37. But how many will they be?

I think that's what lougal meant .

FHFC

iroced wrote: »

The flaw in your Bustian reasoning is that it only works if your TC is the same captain than your opponent(s). And vice versa.

Let's take lougal example.

This week. Evreyone or so will C Lukaku. Let's say he gets 20 pts. TCers 60 pts. (C)ers 40 pts. Owners 20 pts. Non owners 0 pt (well their actual (C) pts, prob Aguero). On FFS (C) poll Aguero is at 7%. So the ones who will captain him have to be factored too. Do they also own Lukaku and don' trust him or do they (C) Aguero because they don't own Lukaku? This is to be factored also.
Anyway, let's assume most own both and will (C) Lukaku. (C)ers will lose out 20 pts over TCers.

Now. Let's go to GW37. (C) candidates are Payet, Coutinho/Firmino, Pedro/Costa, Mata/Martial/..., Lukaku.
So, let's say Payet gets 15 pts, Coutinho/Firmino/Pedro/Costa/Mata/Martial less or equal than 10 and Lukaku double blanks (4pts).
Payet TC 45 pts. So the minimum relative gain over all other normal captain options is 25 pts. In this situation a lower "absolute" TC return makes you gain more "relative" ground overall!

The only players you'd lose pts from are the ones who TC Lukaku GW33 and (C) Payet GW37. But how many will they be?

I think that's what lougal meant .

Aaarrgh.

No. You are comparing the captain score vs the triple captain score in the individual game week which is irelevant.

Your captain bonus ("B" in my original explanation) you are in competition with the rest of the worlds FPL players each week. How your captan does relative to theirs determines how your rank rises or falls.

In your example figures above a Payet captainer would gain 5 point on a Coutinho/Firmino/Pedro/Costa/Mata/Martial captainer in gw 37 and 11 points on a Lukaku captainer. They all got the same "B" points in GW33.

But in terms of the Lukaku TC GW33 guy they got their once only in a season "C" bonus of 20 in GW33. Someone who TCd Payet in 37 got 15 so loses by 5. Everyone who TCd anyone and got less than 20 loses to the GW33 guy who got 20.

You get 38 "B" scores and choose the player to give that bonus each week. So the possible scores are only the scores each gameweek therfore whether your normal captain is success or fail is relative to the other main captain scores in the gameweek. The cumulative total of your "B" scores relative to everyone else over a season is also relevant.

But you only get one TC and one "C" score in the season and the range of players you have to choose from to determine that score is every single scoring premier league players score every week of the entire season! So all that is relevant regarding your Triple Captain or "C" score in whether you picked a bigger scoring player in the entire season than everyone else.

People who TC'd Aguero vs Newcastle are winning so far.

I'm trying my best to explain this and I am sure there is no flaw in the logic!!