Necronomicon wrote: » Am I mad for hesitating on Lukaku? The leader I'm chasing doesn't have him, which could obviously change, but assuming that remains the case then he will most likely captain Aguero. Having watched Everton yesterday, I'm not entirely convinced that Lukaku will outscore Aguero across two games. And if the leader doesn't get him, then he'll be a differential just to have.
Ziegler1988 wrote: » TC active
FHFC wrote: » Like Jimmi had ruled out TC lukaku although not seen the Sunday highlights yet, but you going for him alone makes it worth considering further! Care to make the case for TC on a known FPL troll with 8 blanks in 11 GWs?? His points since GW20 are 2, 2, 2, 1, 9, 2, 5 ,7, 2, 2
Ziegler1988 wrote: » Watford are on holiday mode now and Palace have conceded 2.17 goals/match at home in 2016. Lukaku has average 6.67 points/match away to bottom half sides this season (6.46 pts/match home and away) so he's a bit of a flat track bully. That 1 pointer you mention includes going off at HT against Newcastle and the 7 pointer was a 9 point swing penalty miss.
lougal88 wrote: » I'm going with normal captaincy and saving the TC for Payet/CHE/MNU/LIV player in 37. The main reason being this: Every man, woman and fish will either Captain/Triple captain Lukaku this week. Therefore I may miss out on 1/3 of his points e.g. he scores 20 pts across the 2 games, I get 40 while the rest get 60. That's 20 points I could more than make up by TCing somebody like Payet while the mob go with Aguero/Kane. Also I'm chasing so no point going with the grain.
FHFC wrote: » Have to say I don't go with this argument at all. Sure a differential TC like Payet will gain huge ground that gameweek if successful but on the season as a whole and your final OR thats largely irrelevant apart from the satisfaction of a huge green arrow. The TC chip simply put gives you one extra captain bonus in the season. It doesn't matter if everyone has Lukaku captain this week, if he scores 20 you've got a 20 point gain on them. Your one shot at an extra captain bonus has got you 20 points. If the Lukaku normal captainers don't get 20 points from whatever week they do play their TC then you're winning. Its purely down to what you get as your one TC bonus in the season vs what everyone else does. You play your TC the week you think it is most likely to get the highest score regardless of how highly captained the player may be that week IMO. That's one of the reasons it really has to be played in a DGW as you have better odds of a higher score as Aguero style 25 pointers in a SGW are very very rare.
lougal88 wrote: » Maybe I'm not articulating it well enough, if so I apologize. Let me try another angle. This week Lukaku captaincy will be higher than probably most anybody in any other week i.e. Aguero vs Villa. In the Aguero v Villa example, he got 11 pts (X3 for TC, x2 for me and most others). So basically the TC brigade that week made 11 more than me. Again this week Lukuku will have huge captaincy. So if I go normal captaincy I wont lose that much ground on the TC for this week. This is my view on it. If I TC Payet in 37, there are at least 4/5 other big options for normal captaincy that week. So it wont be a case of 90% or more captaining him. Meaning it'd be enough of a differential to captain, let alone a TC. I'm not looking at it from a POV of just getting one big green arrow, I'm looking to gain ground as I am at OR 300k. I need to roll the dice and IMO this is not the week for it. It's just my 2 cents. May not be useful to anybody else, but I think for people chasing in money leagues that TCing Lukaku this week when everybody else has captained him already wont gain you much ground.
FHFC wrote: » I get what you are saying. I just think it's flawed logic. Break it down a bit. Think of your captain's or triple captain's score as being. A. The players score B. Your captain bonus. C. Your triple capt bonus. Everyone who captains Lukaku next week gets A and B. People who triple captain get C as well. The bigger number you get for C above the better. Cause the rest of the world will get a C a different week so the only way you gain is if your C is bigger then their C. As the actress said to the vicar. If you normal captain Lukaku next week and he scores 20 you get A and B. If you then TC Payet in 37 and he scores 15 you are not gaining. You lose. By 5 points but you still lose. You may gain a nice ranking boost that week, especially if the other popular captains blank. But overall in terms of gain from your TC Chip its a fail. Your rank would be higher in the above scenario if you had This is why it's slightly different from the normal captaincy. You get 38 shots at that and over the season there will be times.to go differential and times to go mainstream depending on your position. But everyone only gets one TC and to gain ground with it you need to get a higher TC score than everyone else. Welcome to the Busts world of Quantum FPL Theory. I'm just an apprentice. If you want to be properly confused ask the Prof himself.
FHFC wrote: » I get what you are saying. I just think it's flawed logic. Break it down a bit. Think of your captain's or triple captain's score as being. A. The players score B. Your captain bonus. C. Your triple capt bonus. Everyone who captains Lukaku next week gets A and B. People who triple captain get C as well. The bigger number you get for C above the better. Cause the rest of the world will get a C a different week so the only way you gain is if your C is bigger then their C. As the actress said to the vicar. If you normal captain Lukaku next week and he scores 20 you get A and B. If you then TC Payet in 37 and he scores 15 you are not gaining. You lose. By 5 points but you still lose. You may gain a nice ranking boost that week, especially if the other popular captains blank. But overall in terms of gain from your TC Chip its a fail. Your rank would be higher in the above scenario if you had TCd Lukaku in 33 and normal Cd Payet in 37. You would have 5 more points. This is why it's slightly different from the normal captaincy. You get 38 shots at that and over the season there will be times.to go differential and times to go mainstream depending on your position. But everyone only gets one TC and to gain ground with it you need to get a higher TC score than everyone else. Welcome to the Busts world of Quantum FPL Theory. I'm just an apprentice. If you want to be properly confused ask the Prof himself.
lougal88 wrote: » Ok so this week I get Lukaku's A and B, I realize the bigger the C I get the better. However, Lukaku's current ownership is 1.43m and rising. Im gonna go on a limb and say this week about 1.4m of those will at least normal captain (A + and of those, probably a good 400k will TC (A + B + C). Whereas, the point I'm failing to make (:P) is that, Payet current ownership is 1.155m. In GW37, and I'm only spit-balling here, possibly about 200-300k will normal captain him, with a lot less maybe 50k using TC on him like I plan to. So he could fail spectacularly of course, but if he hits 20 there I get 60. Plus the 40 from Lukaku for normal captaincy this week = 100. Whereas the other specimen who TC Lukaku this week and gets his 60, may not even own Payet let alone captain him that week. In theory Im gaining about 20 points, if he captains somebody else who doesn't explode. Yes, it may be a bullsh*t theory but its mine! And I'm sticking to my guns lol
FHFC wrote: » If Lukaku gets 20 and Payet gets 20 your rank etc (in so far as its affected by your TC choice) will be identical. Ownership matters not to triple captains young padwan. For your normal captaincy bonus (your 'B') you would gain if Payet as a differential captain in 37 came home vs the main popular highly owned captains that week. For the Triple Captain.....Your C bigger than their C....Your C bigger than their C....Your C bigger than their C....Your C bigger than their C....Your C bigger than their C.... Cue music. Fade to black.
lougal88 wrote: » If you don't TC Lukaku after all this advice I will be so cross!!
FHFC wrote: » Its a tough call and Ziegler made a good case. In my logic it's a matter of whether I think I can get a higher C from one of the GW37 options as opposed to Lukaku this week. It makes no difference to me if Lukaku is 95% captained this week. Very hard to call on the GW37 options this far in advance. Even with Payet, West Ham could be out of the race for 4th or 5th at this stage and could be in a cup final. Last game at Boleyn yes, but United could still be chasing 4th and out of the cup. On the other hand Chelsea and their experimental side with nothing to play for and Mr Conte to impress could be scoring goals for fun by then. Its a coin toss to a degree, and I am somewhat tempted by the attraction of just getting rid of the fcuking thing.
Ziegler1988 wrote: » The other side of that coin is that at least if TC Lukaku fails this week then everyone's normal captain failed. If your DGW37 TC fails and was less than 50% poll choice then someone that TCed someone else could smash you. Not that psychology matters too much, it's all about the points. I'd probably take the Aguero Villa TC now if you gave it to me
Paully D wrote: » Lukaku normal captain. Saving the TC for Sanchez next week.
ElTel wrote: » My thoughts exactly.
lougal88 wrote: » How many doublers do you have for 34?
iroced wrote: » The flaw in your Bustian reasoning is that it only works if your TC is the same captain than your opponent(s). And vice versa. Let's take lougal example. This week. Evreyone or so will C Lukaku. Let's say he gets 20 pts. TCers 60 pts. (C)ers 40 pts. Owners 20 pts. Non owners 0 pt (well their actual (C) pts, prob Aguero). On FFS (C) poll Aguero is at 7%. So the ones who will captain him have to be factored too. Do they also own Lukaku and don' trust him or do they (C) Aguero because they don't own Lukaku? This is to be factored also. Anyway, let's assume most own both and will (C) Lukaku. (C)ers will lose out 20 pts over TCers. Now. Let's go to GW37. (C) candidates are Payet, Coutinho/Firmino, Pedro/Costa, Mata/Martial/..., Lukaku. So, let's say Payet gets 15 pts, Coutinho/Firmino/Pedro/Costa/Mata/Martial less or equal than 10 and Lukaku double blanks (4pts). Payet TC 45 pts. So the minimum relative gain over all other normal captain options is 25 pts. In this situation a lower "absolute" TC return makes you gain more "relative" ground overall! The only players you'd lose pts from are the ones who TC Lukaku GW33 and (C) Payet GW37. But how many will they be? I think that's what lougal meant .
