Do you think a referendum on abortion would be passed?(not how you'd vote)

freshpopcorn

During the lead up to the general election I heard some talk about the 8th amendment being repealed and it being an important election issue. Outside of a few candidates and people online. I didn't really find people gave much thought when they were voting. A good few pro life candidates who want to keep the 8th amendment were elected.
If we were to have a referendum on the issue I'm not sure it would be passed. It would depend on what we would be voting on. Would it only be for cases of rape/incest or would it be abortion on demand.
If it was for cases of rape/incest. Would this be hard to prove. So would we essential be voting for abortion on demand.
Going on the marriage referendum a good few constituencies were close enough on voting No. So I think these areas would probably vote No. I could also see another few areas voting No also. I think areas around Dublin would probably vote Yes but it wouldn't be around the 70%. So these areas might pull up the national average.
I know a good few people who'd happily voted Yes last May but they wouldn't support abortion. These would be young/old people and from different areas.
I also know people who'd support abortion
What's After Hours opinion?

RayM

freshpopcorn wrote: »

If it was for cases of rape/incest. Would this be hard to prove. So would we essential be voting for abortion on demand.

I have no respect for the argument that abortion should be legal in the case of rape or incest. You either believe a woman should have autonomy over her own body or you don't. If a person thinks abortion is acceptable in the case of rape or incest, then it logically follows that they think abortion is actually acceptable. Those people are massive hypocrites and their biggest problem is with women, not with abortion.

MilesMorales1

*ponders* yes, probably. Can't of think why anyone would vote against it these days.

MadDog76

Before the Gay Marriage referendum I'd have said maybe, but probably not ........ now I think anything's possible!

eviltwin

Depends on how it's phrased. Certain cases like fatal abnormalities will pass no problem, abortion on demand I don't know.

Little CuChulainn

I don't think a repeal would pass because it would leave too much uncertainty. An amendment to narrow the applicability of it would probably pass.

questionmark?

eviltwin wrote: »

Depends on how it's phrased. Certain cases like fatal abnormalities will pass no problem, abortion on demand I don't know.

I think your right there.

Abortion on demand may struggle to get over the line. Might just about but I wouldn't be betting my house on it.

Little CuChulainn

MilesMorales1 wrote: »

*ponders* yes, probably. Can't of think why anyone would vote against it these days.

Doesn't sound like you did much pondering.

cowboyBuilder

Not in Ireland for the next 20 years or so .

We still have the anti-women brigade getting up on their high horses ..
don´t they realise that even if abortion is legal, they are still free never to have one if they don't wish ?

Little CuChulainn

cowboyBuilder wrote: »

Not in Ireland for the next 20 years or so .

We still have the anti-women brigade getting up on their high horses ..
don´t they realise that even if abortion is legal, they are still free never to have one if they don't wish ?

I'm always curious how people like yourself can completely ignore the main reason people are against it i.e. the life of a child. Do you think dismissing that argument completely and pretending it's a sexism issue will change people minds about it?

aaakev

I would certainly hope it passed anyway so women could have a free choice over their own bodies. Id say it would be close but i think it would pass

RadiationKing

Nope. Abortion is still the bread and butter of the loonies. All they have to do is the usual "they're murdering babies" song and dance and it's all over. The SSM referendum passed very much in spite of their best efforts but abortion is far more contentious.

Nomis21

I think the The 8th amendment should be deleted from the constitution.


One question that is not often discussed...

If abortion on demand is made legal here, will it be legal for women from The North (Or anywhere else in the World) to come here for a termination?

It is a massive industry in the UK.

eviltwin

Nomis21 wrote: »

I think the The 8th amendment should be deleted from the constitution.


One question that is not often discussed...

If abortion on demand is made legal here, will it be legal for women from The North (Or anywhere else in the World) to come here for a termination?

It is a massive industry in the UK.

Can't see why not. It would be the height of hypocrisy to deny access to foreign women seeing how we've relied on other jurisdictions so much to take care of our own

sm213

I think it would be passed if certain restrictions were in place. I personally wouldn't get an abortion but don't see why my choice should be everyones.
Then there's fatal abnormalities where a fetus could not survive outside the womb or would suffer for a few days before dying.
Some people make the hard choice to abort rather than allow the child suffer and also have the added stress of going abroad.
It's hard as it could be abused and used as a form of contraception but it comes back to although I don't agree with it is it fair to stop people who wish to use it that way.
Should it be made legal, yes.
Will it be? Probably not right now unless there is strict regulations attached. Such as rape/incest cases, fatal abnormalities and for everyone else a 12 week gestation max.

MightyMandarin

RayM wrote: »

I have no respect for the argument that abortion should be legal in the case of rape or incest. You either believe a woman should have autonomy over her own body or you don't. If a person thinks abortion is acceptable in the case of rape or incest, then it logically follows that they think abortion is actually acceptable. Those people are massive hypocrites and their biggest problem is with women, not with abortion.

Unfortunately for you, according to the latest comprehensive poll done by Newstalk and RedC, 37% of people are 'massive hypocrites', since arguments in favour of abortion drop in support from 78% to 41% when the limits of rape and incest are removed.

It must also be noted that a majority (56%) of people don't want abortion in any circumstances.

It's also interesting to note that "Differences amongst male and female respondents does not vary widely with the most marked contrast between the sexes being in the instances of significant foetal disability or non-fatal foetal abnormality with 66% of men agreeing that abortion should be an option while only 57% of woman agree with this assertion."

Perhaps this ends the notion that 'it's men holding women back' in this context.

Whether the referendum would pass, really depends on how it's phrased imo.

For Forks Sake

RadiationKing wrote: »

Nope. Abortion is still the bread and butter of the loonies. All they have to do is the usual "they're murdering babies" song and dance and it's all over. The SSM referendum passed very much in spite of their best efforts but abortion is far more contentious.

The SSM referendum campaign will seems like a sunny stroll in the park compared to the sort of sh1te and vitriol that'd be flung around on an abortion referendum.

Malari

eviltwin wrote: »

Depends on how it's phrased. Certain cases like fatal abnormalities will pass no problem, abortion on demand I don't know.

I agree with this. It seems incredible that it wouldn't pass with such an enormous amount of social change in Ireland within the last 20 or 30 years but I think there is still a significant number of people who are quite conservative about abortion. And not just older people.

Little CuChulainn

sm213 wrote: »

Should it be made legal, yes.
Will it be? Probably not right now unless there is strict regulations attached. Such as rape/incest cases, fatal abnormalities and for everyone else a 12 week gestation max.

How would you attach these strict regulations to a repeal though?

somefeen

If it was for legal in all cases I reckon it would be a very close no. AFAIK more pro life candidates got elected than pro choice.

The infuriating thing for me is this. People say they are against abortion because they believe they would be killing a child. But then they say " OK its acceptable though in cases of rape or incest". So its OK to kill a child if they came to be because of rape.

Its either killing a child or its not.
I believe its not and I don't think its right to force someone to have something grow inside them against their will.

The Young Wan

Malari wrote: »

I agree with this. It seems incredible that it wouldn't pass with such an enormous amount of social change in Ireland within the last 20 or 30 years but I think there is still a significant number of people who are quite conservative about abortion. And not just older people.

My friend is early 20s, and probably the most liberal person I know in many ways. But will not enter into a discussion about abortion at all - she is dead against it. We have not come as far as we think we have.

the_barfly1

cowboyBuilder wrote: »

Not in Ireland for the next 20 years or so .

We still have the anti-women brigade getting up on their high horses ..
don´t they realise that even if abortion is legal, they are still free never to have one if they don't wish ?

Anti-women brigade? They're in the minority.
I reckon it'd fail due to the backward catholic bullsh1t that is still so pervasive here amongst the older section of our society . We're a generation away from abortion being legalised here.

I'd like to be proven wrong, though.

MightyMandarin

somefeen wrote: »

If it was for legal in all cases I reckon it would be a very close no. AFAIK more pro life candidates got elected than pro choice.

I don't think a candidate being pro-life/choice made much of a difference to voters, and certainly the ones who were staunch pro-life (Lucinda Creighton and Fidelma Healy-Eames for example) weren't elected because they're idiots (certainly the latter) and not because they're pro-life.

deseil

The Young Wan wrote: »

My friend is early 20s, and probably the most liberal person I know in many ways. But will not enter into a discussion about abortion at all - she is dead against it. We have not come as far as we think we have.

I think we have come far last years referendum showed that but,abortion is just something that will never sit right with some people and thats an opinion they should be allowed to have.

The issue is, that their opinion should have no bearing on anothers personal choice to abort. There is plenty of things people disagree on but I think its a step too far that a state can force an unwanted child on a woman if she personally does not want one.

12Phase

Almost definitely. Things have changed enormously since the 1990s or even 2000s and it's basically a different planet to Ireland in the 1980s.

Amirani

MightyMandarin wrote: »

I don't think a candidate being pro-life/choice made much of a difference to voters, and certainly the ones who were staunch pro-life (Lucinda Creighton and Fidelma Healy-Eames for example) weren't elected because they're idiots (certainly the latter) and not because they're pro-life.

Whatever your thoughts on Lucinda Creighton, and I myself disagree with her on a majority of issues, she's not an idiot.

beach_walker

Little CuChulainn wrote: »

I'm always curious how people like yourself can completely ignore the main reason people are against it i.e. the life of a child. Do you think dismissing that argument completely and pretending it's a sexism issue will change people minds about it?

It's an odd one too as if you like at any pro-life march women are nearly always in the majority (from my experience).

It all depends on what proposed legalisation is to follow. I don't think abortion on demand has a chance. Some very limited legalisation might get the referendum over the line.

Idbatterim

It probably would, a huge amount of our new young liberals will vote for "yes" for anything, funny how so many flew back to vote in the SSM referendum, yet huge amounts of these didnt vote in the GE...

The One Doctor

MilesMorales1 wrote: »

*ponders* yes, probably. Can't of think why anyone would vote against it these days.

I'd vote against it because I'm not a fan of legalising the killing of children, unborn or otherwise.

That said, it really depends on the wording. If the legislation said "you can only terminate a pregnancy in the first 8 to 10 weeks" then I'd vote yes. Otherwise I'd vote no.

mailforkev

the_barfly1 wrote: »

I reckon it'd fail due to the backward catholic bullsh1t that is still so pervasive here amongst the older section of our society.

It's not just older people, our Catholic school system is still feeding all sorts of mumbo jumbo into almost every child to the detriment of rational thought. It takes a long time to shake that off.

I don't think it would pass, and it would be a grim campaign.

I think it would be passed alright. 10 years ago no, but I think it would do now. I would hope that it would anyway!