Storm Jake - 01/02 March - High Winds West Coast & Widespread Snow Risk

Kermit.de.frog

Also Tuesday night could see a covering for some before dawn. We have been here before of course this winter but it's close enough to be reasonably confident.

A complicated depression from the northwest moving over the country on Thursday is bringing some unusually cold air with it off the Atlantic. Should be snowfall to be had within the fronts associated with this. Higher ground is a given.

And we need at least one scare mongering thread this season!:cool:

More tomorrow.

Bejubby

Any charts pic's

screamer

I'll believe it when I see it. Till then I won't hold my breath.

lapua20grain

Where do you see this affecting Kermit?

highdef

Current GFS models show lying snow in many parts of the country on Tuesday night, except perhaps for the south and west coasts and also the south west part of the country.
Will be interesting how the next run goes to see if the trend continues as it's usually around this run that things fall apart, if they are going to do so.

highdef

As I kinda expected, the latest GFS charts show a fairly big downgrade with regards to lying snow potential on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Fingers crossed that an upgrade pops up.

Pangea

Snow in Donegal today
http://www.donegaldaily.com/2016/02/29/motorists-advised-to-take-care-after-overnight-snow/

highdef

Pangea wrote: »

Snow in Donegal today
http://www.donegaldaily.com/2016/02/29/motorists-advised-to-take-care-after-overnight-snow/

I think this may in the wrong thread. This thread is for discussing "Risk of some significant snowfall Tuesday and Thursday nights".

nacho libre

The BBC precipitation radar shows snow across, the northwest, centre, and down into Wicklow on Tuesday night. I hope it's not all gone by Wednesday morning. Sill there might be further chances on Thursday to see snow.

Oneiric 3

Hirlam going for a very gusty night Tues night/Wed morn as a small trough bears down over the country. Positioning not nailed on yet though but given that the tightest isobar gradient will be occurring in a relatively cold air mass, actual gustyness would be noticeable and projected to peak early on Wed morning with potential for 60/70 knots on N/W Munster coasts.




Track of shallow low will be key but it could become wild in places for a short while if its track pans out something like this.

nacho libre

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Hirlam going for a very gusty night Tues night/Wed morn as a small trough bears down over the country. Positioning not nailed on yet though but given that the tightest isobar gradient will be occurring in a relatively cold air mass, actual gustyness would be noticeable and projected to peak early on Wed morning with potential for 60/70 knots on N/W Munster coasts.

Jeez. I hope the ferry at Holyhead won't be cancelled.

Sea Crossings
State of sea until 1800 Wednesday 02 March 2016
Dublin - Holyhead Moderate to rough. Later rough.

Iancar29

Certainly could be a nice covering on high ground come Wednesday morning. With blowing snow in on peaks . ATM its seems like high areas of Donegal,Derry, boarder counties and also Wicklow mountains could see a few cms.

NMM track for PPN


T850s showing snow more likely below 300m in the north and above that elsewhere.

Dial Hard

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

Also Tuesday night could see a covering for some before dawn. We have been here before of course this winter but it's close enough to be reasonably confident.

So which is it, "significant" or "a covering"? Big difference imo.

Clonmel1000

Dial Hard wrote: »

So which is it, "significant" or "a covering"? Big difference imo.

Probably neither.

sparrowcar

Kermit did you call this to early or are you still fairly confident?

pauldry

perhaps central ulster has best chance of snow and some north midland locations

then donegal and sligo except coastal

JanuarySnowstor

Bit of an upgrade this morning
Snow likely tonight across the country (esp northern areas) mild again Thursday before turning even colder Thursday night and Friday.
Friday morning looks white

JCX BXC

Looking very marginal for West Clare! Might have some nice hills to look at Friday morning though.

JanuarySnowstor

Met eireann talking about some accumulations tonight.
Most likely get a yellow warning issued by midday.
Wind gusts look potent for a short while

Oscar Bravo

Status Orange warning for west coasts regarding wind gusts, with status yellow warning for coastal counties of the west to be issued later ....wintry night ahead....

STATUS ORANGE

Gale Warning
Westerly gales developing later today on coasts from Valentia to Erris Head to Malin Head, spreading to all sea areas tonight and increasing to strong gale force or storm force 10 on west coasts.

Oscar Bravo

0902 update
Tonight

Showers will continue tonight and will merge to longer spells of rain, sleet and snow in places overnight with some accumulations in places. Some hail and thunder also. Extremely windy with gale force and squally westerly winds, stormy in some coastal areas of the west and southwest. Lowest temperatures between zero and 3 degrees Celsius, risk of icy stretches in sheltered areas.

Iancar29

So it all comes down to how much PPN will be on the back side of the trough.
The air should be cold enough for wintry ppn by evening time on high ground ( above 250m ) and then the colder air will move in during the night, 0c ISO term at 200m by dawn.
I'd say accumulations are likely down to the midlands. 2-5cms , more on high ground(5-8cms). Elsewhere (except munster) should see mixed ppn apart from mountains along the east coast where accumulations are also likely.

With wind gusts from 70-80 km possible overnight, any falling snow will easily bring blizzard conditions during that time frame... IMO this may warrant an Orange warning instead of just a yellow from Met Eireann.




9pm

12am

6am

ISO


WIND


Showers quickly turning back to rain from midday...

Iancar29

MET OFFICE Yellow Warning just issued

Warning
Showers will turn wintry this evening across the warning area, with the risk of a more prolonged spell of snowfall late in the night and early Wednesday morning, especially in the south. This will give a covering of snow with 2-5 cm possible in many places and locally 5-10 cm, these higher accumulations mainly above 100 m. Icy stretches on untreated roads and pavements are also likely to form.

Please be aware of some difficult driving conditions and the potential for travel disruption into the Wednesday morning rush hour.

Chief Forecaster's Assessment
A cold front will move east and south across the United Kingdom through Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. This will introduce significantly colder air with frequent showers these turning readily to sleet and snow even at low levels. 2 to 5 cm is expected in many areas by dawn Wednesday with up to 10 cm in places. These higher accumulations are more likely over higher ground above 100 m but may also occur to low levels where showers are heavy and prolonged. Clear spells between showers will also lead to icy stretches forming on untreated surfaces.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1456790400&regionName=ni


UPDATE - Met Eireann , yellow warning issued.

STATUS YELLOW

Snow-ice Warning for Connacht, Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal
Heavy snow showers are expected overnight leading to accumulations of 3cm in parts of Connacht, Ulster and Leinster, larger accumulations likely on higher ground

Issued:Tuesday 01 March 2016 11:00
Valid:Tuesday 01 March 2016 22:00 to Wednesday 02 March 2016 09:00

Wind Warning for Ireland
Westerly winds veering northwest overnight are expected to reach mean speeds of 50 to 65km/h with gusts of 90 to 110km/h.

Issued:Tuesday 01 March 2016 10:00
Valid:Tuesday 01 March 2016 20:00 to Wednesday 02 March 2016 10:00

Surprised they don't mention blizzard conditions with having both warnings up separately, perhaps a bit too alarmist...

aisling86

I got a text from met eireann including cork in the Orange alert but not showing on the website, I wonder will we be included or excluded.

DOCARCH

Will we have Storm Jake I wonder?

Oscar Bravo

Met eireann status orange warning now issued for wind for following- Galway mayo limerick clare kerry and Waterford. valid from 10pm tonight

Rikand

Dial Hard wrote: »

So which is it, "significant" or "a covering"? Big difference imo.

Significant Covering!

Kamili

I hope we get a little snow been looking forward to this. Although the wind doesn't sound good.

Will be keeping an eye on this thread for further updates.
Currently warm (10 degrees) and breezy here in DoooBlin!

Every time I hear a status yellow snow warning I do start singing Watch out where the huskies go, and don't you eat that yellow snow... Don't be a Naughty Eskimo...

(sorry!)

JCX BXC

http://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057567557/1/#post98912864

Thread about the wind warning.

onmebike

Is anybody else getting excited about this? I am, but it seems quite subdued in here.

kittyn

onmebike wrote: »

Is anybody else getting excited about this? I am, but it seems quite subdued in here.

Too many false dawns here this year and I think everyone is very sceptical...... I will get excited when I see the flakes falling

john why

Will any white gold find it's way to Dublin tonight or tomorrow

Kamili

onmebike wrote: »

Is anybody else getting excited about this? I am, but it seems quite subdued in here.

meemeeemeeee!!

I have everything crossed for a "significant covering" of snow.

pauldry

kittyn wrote: »

Too many false dawns here this year and I think everyone is very sceptical...... I will get excited when I see the flakes falling

Hear hear

I reckon ill wake up to soakn wet slushy hailstones gone in 10mins

Maybe inland will hold onto whiteness but when you live on the coast of sligo

1. Ben Bulben blocks direct northerlies moderating shower activity
2. NW winds have to travel thousands of miles over cool but not cold sea . Therefore to fall as snow there needs to be a period of transition that can take the snow aspect inland.
3. If theres pure snow it tends to whirl around and miss urban sligo completely

Therefore Im subdued.

Gonzo

even if there is a slight covering in places it will be melted by this time tomorrow. Too little too late.

onmebike

kittyn wrote: »

Too many false dawns here this year and I think everyone is very sceptical...... I will get excited when I see the flakes falling

But it's tonight...not 3 or 4 nights time. I'm getting my snow goggles out of storage anyway :-)

Lucreto

onmebike wrote: »

Is anybody else getting excited about this? I am, but it seems quite subdued in here.

I really want to get excited but I feel it's going to completely missed Naas or just rain.

I been hurt too many times over the years. It won't stop me throwing open the curtains at 6 am hoping it is white and have my hopes dashed.

nacho libre

Gonzo wrote: »

even if there is a slight covering in places it will be melted by this time tomorrow. Too little too late.

I still prefer to see snow, and if it settles for a while at this time year it's a bonus. Perhaps If this winter had been a snow fest i might think differently. Anyway i will just miss out on the action tonight. Well,maybe there will be still some snow to be had between six and seven in the morning. If not the weekend is looking promising at the moment.

Macy0161

onmebike wrote: »

Is anybody else getting excited about this? I am, but it seems quite subdued in here.

May the weather gods forgive me, but tomorrow really doesn't suit! :eek:

Iancar29

Storm officially named Jake

Supercell

Macy0161 wrote: »

May the weather gods forgive me, but tomorrow really doesn't suit! :eek:

I'd say your more likely than most on this side of the country to see the white gold tomorrow morning! Wish I could take it off ye!

coillsaille

Iancar29 wrote: »

Storm officially named Jake

Where did you see that Iancar? No mention of name on ME app.

Rock Lesnar

onmebike wrote: »

Is anybody else getting excited about this? I am, but it seems quite subdued in here.

If it were december or january, i'd have the party hats out, but its march, there's heat in the sun now, so whatever falls isn't worth it's time, i want snow that will last for a day or 2 so the kids can play in it, not looking out the window at it, while it melts away within an hour.

Niemoj

Shame, I absolutely love the cold weather and a nice bit of sneachta.

Dial Hard

Rikand wrote:

Significant Covering!

2 - 5cm ain't no significant covering in my book!

*yearns for the winter of 2010*

nacho libre

Dial Hard wrote: »

2 - 5cm ain't no significant covering in my book!

*yearns for the winter of 2010*

It's good for this time of year. You are not alone, I am sure most of of the posters here would love to see a winter month like December 2010 again.
We should take a gigantic hairdryer to the polar vortex or something.

Macy0161

Supercell wrote: »

I'd say your more likely than most on this side of the country to see the white gold tomorrow morning! Wish I could take it off ye!

Has the feeling of a 250m+ event to me to be honest.

When is 230m odd asl not really high ground? When the snow line is 250m!

Oneiric 3

HIRLAM has a small zone of 56 knot (B.F 11 ) mean winds encroaching on the Mayo coast later tonight as a shortwave moves in.




This feature could move slightly further north or south in reality, but does look concerning for areas that will be affected.

JCX BXC

Is this the thread for the wind? I created one (as per usual a different thread for a different event) but it was locked. Any input from mods?

DOCARCH

Carnacalla wrote: »

Is this the thread for the wind? I created one (as per usual a different thread for a different event) but it was locked. Any input from mods?

For both now.

I did not close your other thread, however, I reckon one thread is sufficient.

Storm 10

So where the hell did Storm Jake come from it seems to have caught everyone off their guard.