Ireland vs Wales, Six Nations 2016, Sunday 7th Feb, 2016. KO 3PMGMT

Losty Dublin

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Live Radio on RTE Radio 1, BBC 5 Live Extra, BBC Radio Wales, BBC Radio Cymru and BBC Radio Ulster.

PREVIEW

This Sunday afternoon sees a game which holds a special appeal for me, more than any other game of rugby football.

Why so? Well, my grandmother was born in Wales, in the little village of Menai Bridge. She didn’t live there for very long as her family moved to Ireland when she was young but she was there long enough to have Welsh as her sole tongue and to call it home. As the years passed and Granny Rose grew up, the bond with Wales was never forgotten; over time it rubbed off on my own Mum and eventually onto me as well. Granny is long departed now while Mum is not far from her calling as well; still the love of the Land of our Fathers is very much there in our greater family.

But what has my family tree got to do with Warren and Joe and their renewed spat? A wee bit and do allow me to explain how in a minute…..

Lets be honest, both Ireland and Wales had poor RWC’s but under rather different reasons. In Ireland’s case a soft group draw included wins against Italy and France that ultimately proved Phyrric in nature. On the other hand Wales came out of the Pool of Death having been written off due to an epidemic of injuries to many key players only to be narrowly defeated to South Africa. Similarly, both Union’s home clubs have struggled somewhat in League and Cup in comparison to what’s expected from each other, the bookies odds reflecting same. 



That said it’s not all doom and gloom. Scarlets are the form team in the Pro 12, Ulster are strong in Europe, Connacht are turning heads this season while Leinster are quietly returning to form and with a new breed of talented footballers.


THE TEAMS

On the field of play, the Ireland team are still encountering the run of injuries that has hampered the selection of the optimum starting 15 over the last 2 years yet these didn’t hamper back to back 6N titles. Doubts about Sean O’Brien and Rob Kearney are par for the course these days yet in the likes of Payne, Henshaw, Ruddock, Dave Kearney, Tommy O’Donnell, CJ Stander (Below) and and in form Zebo to call up these holes are swiftly plugged on the day. The tight six selections are a lot easier as indeed are the half backs, a blessing that Joe is surely relieved to have been granted.

Gatland’s team was named earlier this week and, well, it’s vintage Gatland. Plenty of bluff and big talk from Warren G. There’s a WTF selection in Cardiff’s Tom James (Below) as well as a recall for match day captain Sam Warburton at blindside, a man who’s played but one hour of football since November. Gethin Jenkins is demoted to an experienced bench in favour of Llanelli prop Rob Evans while Alan Wynn Jones is a comforting site for the Welsh in the second row. All in all, it’s a 23 that will want to win a war of attrition.

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THE VERDICT

Sunday is likely to be one of two games. Either Wales will want to carry ball in the pack for 80 minutes, to try to kill us with short sharp breakdowns and pick ups to win penalty kicks and make use of scrum ball or Ireland will kick into the space as much as possible to exploit indecisiveness in the Welsh full back line, nurse line outs and make the most out of hard hitting set piece midfield runs from Payne and Henshaw. Even though Wales have more in the way of match winners and on field flair, this time round I’ve less faith in Welsh consistency and more in Irish reliability when it’s needed most. This time round I’m going with a home win in the region of 22-19 and two tries to one.

Whatever way it goes, it will be no Super Saturday, it certainly won’t be pretty, it will be pretty close and as for the spat, well the argument, the making up and the singing afterwards will be sweet, just how one Rose Owen of Menai Bridge would have liked it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XCQ1E-ISDA

thomond2006

I will shamelessly re-use this.

errlloyd

I am not confident, and I am not sure the discussion on this match thread is gonna make me feel much better.

BUT....

It is when I am at my lowest that Joe delivers, and I am desperate here.

Otacon

I am expecting a loss but hoping desperately for a win.

Please Joe. Please.

Lovely write up.

former total

Odds have narrowed ever so slightly since the teams were announced. Ireland very marginal favourites.

Yeah I think we'll win.

Magico Gonzalez

I hope to be wrong but I think this is going to be a very demoralising defeat.

CatFromHue

I'd have Ireland as marginal favourites too.

captbarnacles

I think Wales are going to beat us and a shade cosily. I will be delighted to be very very wrong.

PTH2009

Could it be a close game but Wales could run away with. They should of been in a world cup semi final but lost concentration vs south africa.

Were not the all blacks or the Kilkenny hurlers we have to have bad spells. Its a tough fixture list for us Wales, France and England our first 3 games. This campaign how good Joe really is

the immortals

gilroy mcloskey Jackson anyone?

CMOTDibbler

I'm not too worried strangely enough. Unlike the last game we played, we've had a lot more time to absorb the injuries and get replacements up to speed.

Nice that we're not the favourites either

thomond2006

PTH2009 wrote: »

Could it be a close game but Wales could run away with. They should of been in a world cup semi final but lost concentration vs south africa.

Were not the all blacks or the Kilkenny hurlers we have to have bad spells. Its a tough fixture list for us Wales, France and England our first 3 games. This campaign how good Joe really is

Guaranteed win so. Cheers PTH.

.ak

I think sob is a massive loss. That pack, particularly the back row, looks a little bleak.

captbarnacles

Looking at the two teams I'd only take Murray,Best and possibly Earls (I have no clue about their 11) for a combined team.

captbarnacles

captbarnacles wrote: »

Looking at the two teams I'd only take Murray,Best and possibly Earls (I have no clue about their 11) for a combined team.

With form as a consideration I take both of their half backs

Bridge93

[Deleted User] wrote: »

With form as a consideration I take both of their half backs

If we're going by form then Trimble > North, McGrath > Evans, Heaslip > Faletau, Zebo > Anscombe

sydthebeat

so...

when we see zebo fielding deep and running back into heavy traffic... will that EVENTUALLY lay waste to the myth that Rob Kearney cant attack so he takes the low risk option?

vienne86

I'm worried about this match - the injuries are a bummer - but looking forward to Sunday and hope for a good performance.

mjp

Would have preferred to see Payne at 15 and Mc closkey in the centre.

CMOTDibbler

mjp wrote: »

Would have preferred to see Payne at 15 and Mc closkey in the centre.

Nope. That would mean playing a 12 for his first cap, a 13 for the first time at 13 and a 15 for the first time at 15 against Wales.

Zzippy

sydthebeat wrote: »

so...

when we see zebo fielding deep and running back into heavy traffic... will that EVENTUALLY lay waste to the myth that Rob Kearney cant attack so he takes the low risk option?

Seriously, you're going to use Zebo in the form he's been in to judge RK? At least if he does that it might stop him offloading to an opponent or passing the ball into touch...

bilston

the immortals wrote: »

gilroy mcloskey Jackson anyone?

Yeah you can catch them on BBC2 about 7pm tonight

PTH2009

What's the refs radio frequency for the match ???. Don't want to waste 10 Euro On a ref talk radio when there's a good radio on my phone

Zzippy

PTH2009 wrote: »

What's the refs radio frequency for the match ???. Don't want to waste 10 Euro On a ref talk radio when there's a good radio on my phone

Not sure if it's still the same but a 2-second search found this

ionadnapokot

Can't see how Ireland can win this game with that pack. We had Sob Poc Pom Ross and Henderson in Cardiff last year.
Can't even see where we can secure ball against Wales to score a try.
Wales to win by 10 pts.
Sick

Buer

I don't think there's so much cause for doom and gloom.

Stander is an unknown at this level and could have a cracking game. I'd expect him to captitalise on the absence of Lydiate as well as not being a marked man yet and wreak havoc in the loose. TOD is going to have a tough game but should be able to make some impact. Our front five, AWJ aside, is as good as theirs and our halfbacks are better.

People seem to be completely ignoring how poor Biggar has been over the past month or so. I fully expect him to step up a level this weekend but for those being pessimistic about Sexton, he comfortably outplayed Biggar when they faced off in Swansea a few weeks ago.

We're at home. It's the first game of the 6N. It's the f*cking Welsh (sorry Penybont). If that can't light some enthusiasm, you're a lost cause.

bilston

Buer wrote: »

I don't think there's so much cause for doom and gloom.

Stander is an unknown at this level and could have a cracking game. I'd expect him to captitalise on the absence of Lydiate as well as not being a marked man yet and wreak havoc in the loose. TOD is going to have a tough game but should be able to make some impact. Our front five, AWJ aside, is as good as theirs and our halfbacks are better.

People seem to be completely ignoring how poor Biggar has been over the past month or so. I fully expect him to step up a level this weekend but for those being pessimistic about Sexton, he comfortably outplayed Biggar when they faced off in Swansea a few weeks ago.

We're at home. It's the first game of the 6N. It's the f*cking Welsh (sorry Penybont). If that can't light some enthusiasm, you're a lost cause.

Heaslip certainly looked focused in the press conference, either that or he wanted to be anywhere else but there!!

I'm not in the slightest bit concerned about CJ, I reckon he will take to test rugby quite comfortably. Our back row is quite pacy, it isn't bad at all. The tight 5 is my worry, although thinking about it McGrath (currently), Best and Toner are all first choice anyway.

I think we'll put in a performance on Sunday, I'm not convinced it will be enough for the win, but I think we will play well.

vienne86

PTH2009 wrote: »

What's the refs radio frequency for the match ???. Don't want to waste 10 Euro On a ref talk radio when there's a good radio on my phone

It's usually 96.0. Thanks for reminding me!

irishbucsfan

I get the feeling we'll see a big big game from Nathan White. Not sure where that feeling is coming from but I just feel he has it in him to give us a memorable day on this stage.

The Black Stags

Buer wrote: »

Stander is an unknown at this level and could have a cracking game. I'd expect him to captitalise on the absence of Lydiate as well as not being a marked man yet and wreak havoc in the loose.

I haven't watched much of Munster this season, what is Stander like on the deck - does he get many turnovers? Or is he mainly just a big hitter/ball carrier?



*Quoted Buer but anyone can answer.

The Black Stags

The Black Stags wrote: »

I haven't watched much of Munster this season, what is Stander like on the deck - does he get many turnovers? Or is he mainly just a big hitter/ball carrier?



*Quoted Buer but anyone can answer.

He's been Munsters best player by a margin but has been playing with a weak second row and very poor backrow so he's been having to do a bit of everything.

Carrying certainly seems to be his strength and whilst he seems to pull his weight on the deck he struggled there against SOB and Heaslip in the Leinster game. I don't think he will have any difficulty fitting into the Ireland team tomorrow.

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Stander, O'Brien, Heaslip was our first choice back row by the end of the tournament.

Equally, I think it could be Ruddock, O'Brien and Heaslip so will just have to wait and see how they go.

Exciting to see him in green though. May not be Irish but he has been Munster's most committed player so can't fault him.

Moflojo

The Black Stags wrote: »

I haven't watched much of Munster this season, what is Stander like on the deck - does he get many turnovers? Or is he mainly just a big hitter/ball carrier?



*Quoted Buer but anyone can answer.

He's consistently one of Munster's top poachers, but it's his tackle count and metres carried that are always exceptionally high and garner more attention.

Hopefully Stander can do a good job at test level - Josh Strauss had been single-handedly destroying teams in the Pro12 for years but his impact at test level for Scotland has been fairly poor so far, I never understood why, perhaps he was carrying a knock or something.

stephen_n

I don't get the fears about TOD, though he is no SOB (who is), he has acquitted himself very well so far at international level. He is a natural openside which is exactly what we need on Sunday, I really hope he steps up to the plate and has a stormer.

CatFromHue

3 project players in the starting 15.

Is that the most so far?

CatFromHue

3 project players in the starting 15.

Is that the most so far?

aimee1

stephen_n wrote: »

I don't get the fears about TOD, though he is no SOB (who is), he has acquitted himself very well so far at international level. He is a natural openside which is exactly what we need on Sunday, I really hope he steps up to the plate and has a stormer.

i dont understand it either. He has proven himself so far to be more the capable.

irishbucsfan

stephen_n wrote: »

I don't get the fears about TOD, though he is no SOB (who is), he has acquitted himself very well so far at international level. He is a natural openside which is exactly what we need on Sunday, I really hope he steps up to the plate and has a stormer.

He's not really a natural openside in the common sense. I think we'd much prefer to have a ground focused guy like O'Mahony. But I'm not worried about TOD, he's going to make sure their back row are having to look both ways, he's fantastic for coming up with big carries at big moments.

stephen_n

irishbucsfan wrote: »

He's not really a natural openside in the common sense. I think we'd much prefer to have a ground focused guy like O'Mahony. But I'm not worried about TOD, he's going to make sure their back row are having to look both ways, he's fantastic for coming up with big carries at big moments.

Well I suppose the roll of an openside has morphed somewhat in the modern era, he may not Jackal like POM but his breakdown work is solid. Best will probably be the Jackal on Sunday as I'm not sure about Stander but Heaslip isn't really going to be providing that service I'd imagine.

Fireball07

TOD is perhaps a bit lightweight, but he is an absolute workhorse, and will make huge amounts of tackles. Stander will help on the ground, and the front 5 looks pretty strong.


I would have liked to see McCloskey tbh. The thing I'm most worried about is the form of our half-backs. Probably our two best players (bar SOB) generally, neither have been close to their best this season.


I do think we can win but you'd imagine it will be close again.

English Lurker

I've been glancing at the upcoming team selections for this one from through my fingers but on reflection, things don't look too bad.

The weakest points of this Ireland team for me are the set-piece, which injury has wrecked, and the ability to play open flowing rugby, which has (yet) imo to be a consistent strength of a Schmidt Ireland team. The strong points are the kick-chase (form permitting) and defence.

Look at Wales.

Their ability to attack the set-piece has been greatly reduced by Adam Jones' retirement and while Samson Lee is a serious prospect who will one day hurt people with some break out performances, I'm not sure that day will be Sunday. Their line-out both ways is not great shakes. It's very possible Ireland will sustain no serious damage here.

Not being great at sexy rugby is annoying, but Ireland have won that way before and it's only really a disadvantage if Wales stick up a big score. That seems unlikely to me, the Welsh attack's a little laboured (on account of everyone knowing how it's done) and a strong Irish defence that should do well as long as Wales don't get the ball wide quick and often.

So I'm not sure Ireland's weaknesses will be exploited and looking at things the other way, that's a pretty raw back three for Wales. If the Irish half-backs and back three hit their potential, they could cause a seriously uncomfortable day there. I've already covered the defence issue. If it's a tight affair, with neither side scoring freely, territorial advantage will be key.

It's possible Wales will play a more open game or spring a surprise (the selection of Tipuric suggests they might try, and Anscombe offers a second playmaker if wanted) and that could change the complexion of things radically - if they pull it off. But I'm not sure I'd put money on it.

And I'm not sure I'd want to put money on who wins this one either. That Ireland team could do it.

irishbucsfan

I would say our set piece is a strength of ours. As long as Rory Best is on form with his throwing.

I have no concrete about our 2nd row in the piece whatsoever. The main question is possibly Nathan White but I've never been concerned about his scrummaging. McCarthy is one of the most powerful locks in the country, behind only Henderson I'd say.

I'm not worried by the Welsh set piece. I'm much more worried about what their forwards will do in open play, which is where our tight 5 struggle (except McGrath/Best).

jm08

The Black Stags wrote: »

I haven't watched much of Munster this season, what is Stander like on the deck - does he get many turnovers? Or is he mainly just a big hitter/ball carrier?



*Quoted Buer but anyone can answer.

OptaJonny
OptaJonny – Verified account ‏@OptaJonny

71 - No player has made more carries (71) or won more turnovers (9) than @Munsterrugby's @CJStander in the @ChampionsCup 2015/16. Selection.

LorMal

stephen_n wrote: »

I don't get the fears about TOD, though he is no SOB (who is), he has acquitted himself very well so far at international level. He is a natural openside which is exactly what we need on Sunday, I really hope he steps up to the plate and has a stormer.

TOD is no SOB, no POC, POM or BOD.

pickarooney

We need to get over our dependence on O's.

pickarooney

pickarooney wrote: »

We need to get over our dependence on O's.

I agree with Pickarney

LorMal

Deleted User wrote: »

I agree with Pickarney

Me 2

bilston

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I would say our set piece is a strength of ours. As long as Rory Best is on form with his throwing.

I have no concrete about our 2nd row in the piece whatsoever. The main question is possibly Nathan White but I've never been concerned about his scrummaging. McCarthy is one of the most powerful locks in the country, behind only Henderson I'd say.

I'm not worried by the Welsh set piece. I'm much more worried about what their forwards will do in open play, which is where our tight 5 struggle (except McGrath/Best).

Best's throwing is key. About 3 years ago he had a bit of a 'mare with his throwing (which ultimately cost him with the Lions), however I felt at the time it was a system issue which then in turn plagued on his confidence. My concern is that that difficult period ran in tandem with POC being injured and not in the side to run the lineout, at the same time his throwing for Ulster, with Muller in the team, was generally fine. With POC gone, plus the added burden of the captaincy how will his throwing go? Of course the one plus between now and 2013 is that the beanpole that is Devin Toner is in the side, and whatever else he is an excellent lineout operator so hopefully that will stand to him. However I'm pretty sure AWJ will try to get after the Irish lineout tomorrow, if Wales succeed we are in serious trouble. No pressure Rory...!

Pink Fairy

LorMal wrote: »

TOD is no SOB, no POC, POM or BOD.

Or GBH or FML or LOL

The Rape of Lucretia

Pink Fairy wrote: »

Or GBH or FML or LOL

The papers are wall to wall FGM this morning.

andymx11

Jesus very quite around these parts considering 19 hours to kick off!!

Calm before the storm- moderators getting a night off. On that note, can't believe Jackson isn't on the bench tomorrow.....