Are we headed for another crash?

Noddyholder

deandean wrote: »

No, I don't see a crash coming.
Our bankers and politicians have learned a lot from the mistakes of the past.
They will ensure that any future crash is anticipated, and becomes a 'Soft Landing'.

Since when has this miracle happened ?

deandean

deandean wrote: »

No, I don't see a crash coming.
Our bankers and politicians have learned a lot from the mistakes of the past.
They will ensure that any future crash is anticipated, and becomes a 'Soft Landing'.

Just wow. You must be joking
This is either the funniest post ever on boards, or the scariest

Congratulations either way I suppose

Bishopsback

deandean wrote: »

No, I don't see a crash coming.
Our bankers and politicians have learned a lot from the mistakes of the past.
They will ensure that any future crash is anticipated, and becomes a 'Soft Landing'.

But a soft landing doesent mean you will be able to pay your debts.
If govt drives a policy then prices will only keep going up, the govt will be made to take the blame for a situation created by the masses complaining about homelessness.
A solving of the homelessness issue shouldn't be an excuse for overheating the construction industry.
I'm glad I'm not starting off now!
http://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/firsttime-home-buyers-warned-they-are-at-risk-of-a-new-debt-trap-35565678.html

GhostyMcGhost

deandean wrote: »

No, I don't see a crash coming.
Our bankers and politicians have learned a lot from the mistakes of the past.
They will ensure that any future crash is anticipated, and becomes a 'Soft Landing'.

They couldn't anticipate the sun rising even on the most and anticipating-est day of their lives even if they had an electrified anticipating machine

One More Toy

Mr. teddywinkles wrote: »

The soft landing being the taxpayers hah

Not quite, the single resolution fund directed by EU will see bank creditors taking the fall; plus reserves are now significantly higher due to Basel III.

I dont believe the same bank collapses will happen again with the stricter regulatory environment.


That said, if the government goes bust we will still be well and truely f**ked

One More Toy

GhostyMcGhost wrote: »

They couldn't anticipate the sun rising even on the most and anticipating-est day of their lives even if they had an electrified anticipating machine

In reality, you will find commentators on both sides regularly saying that a crash is coming/a surge is coming. its all bull****, nobody can time the wider market falls.

Mongfinder General

One More Toy wrote: »

Not quite, the single resolution fund directed by EU will see bank creditors taking the fall; plus reserves are now significantly higher due to Basel III.

I dont believe the same bank collapses will happen again with the stricter regulatory environment.


That said, if the government goes bust we will still be well and truely f**ked

But surely the Regulators will be all over a situation like that before it happens. Surely they are checking, assessing and monitoring arrangement put in place by Institutions under the BRRD?

ChikiChiki

deandean wrote: »

No, I don't see a crash coming.
Our bankers and politicians have learned a lot from the mistakes of the past.
They will ensure that any future crash is anticipated, and becomes a 'Soft Landing'.

Haha, i see what you did there. Great sarcasm.

Yourself isit

I thought that the last crash would be caused by increases in interest rates. So it did. To a certain extent. ECB Interest rates increased from 2 to 4.25% from end 2006 to 2008.

Then interest rates fell to 0%.

So unless you think that we never go past 2% again trackers will be in trouble.

There's a bit of give in retail rates though. In Ireland they are expensive precisely because trackers are losing money so I dont see the retail rates tracking ECB rates at the same delta.

However the US has started tightening. Let's see what the ECB does.

One More Toy

Mongfinder General wrote: »

But surely the Regulators will be all over a situation like that before it happens. Surely they are checking, assessing and monitoring arrangement put in place by Institutions under the BRRD?

Indeed. The reporting requirements are more stringent, monthly reporting to central bank etc. Therefore I think any crash will not come from the banking system but rather the "old-style" decline in GDP

demanufactured

Are we headed for another crash?
Only if people are stupid....which they probably are.

jetsonx

We'll have to wait and see what rent-an-economist Jim Power says first...Everything hinges on him.

(as long as his sponsors him write a big enough cheque - he'll say anything they want him to say...)

ToddyDoody

It's the derivatives crash on the way, or so they say.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/718361/Deutsche-Bank-s-36-TRILLION-in-risky-derivatives-may-lead-Lehman-style-collapse

Wanderer78

One More Toy wrote: »

Not quite, the single resolution fund directed by EU will see bank creditors taking the fall; plus reserves are now significantly higher due to Basel III.

I dont believe the same bank collapses will happen again with the stricter regulatory environment.

That said, if the government goes bust we will still be well and truely f**ked

unfortunately in some cases, the main creditors in some banks are in fact depositors, and its looking likely that bank bail ins will be applied if these banks go bust.

if a government goes bust, why doesnt it do what banks do, and create money out of thin air?

demanufactured wrote: »

Are we headed for another crash?
Only if people are stuoid....which they probably are.

what if the economic and financial systems in which we all depend on are fundamentally flawed, leading to 'bad' decisions?

deandean

Deleted User wrote: »

Just wow. You must be joking
This is either the funniest post ever on boards, or the scariest

Congratulations either way I suppose

Thank you Andy, after seven years and 1722 posts my pofferings of Dramatic Irony are finally recognised.
I shall print your comment on 120gsm parchment, and frame it.
I may change my name to Bondholder, as I have been burned.
I lost a lot. But not my sense of humour. It kept me alive ☺

Laois_Man

There is no question that another crash will happen - Its as sure as the seasons of the year. The question is when and how bad.

You only have to look at the Matt Damon narrated documentary "Inside Job" and how the last one happened and then look at what people like Trump are doing and saying!

Wanderer78

Laois_Man wrote: »

There is no question that another crash will happen - Its as sure as the seasons of the year. The question is when and how bad.

You only have to look at the Matt Damon narrated documentary "Inside Job" and how the last one happened and then look at what people like Trump are doing and saying!

personally much prefer renegade incs documentary 'four horsemen' explaining the crash

Laois_Man

Wanderer78 wrote: »

personally much prefer renegade incs documentary 'four horsemen' explaining the crash

Haven't seen it. Must have a look

Wanderer78

Laois_Man wrote: »

Haven't seen it. Must have a look

i actually didnt know about inside job, i ll have a gander thanks.

four horsemen, enjoy:

donegaLroad

before sanctions were lifted in 2016, Iran were swapping comodities for oil with India, China and Turkey. This would have had a knock on effect and it would have been the end of the petro-dollar... that would have been some sort of a melt-down?!

please helpThank YOU

Wanderer78 wrote: »

i actually didnt know about inside job, i ll have a gander thanks.

four horsemen, enjoy:

Thank You Just watched it make you think.

Laois_Man

This is where to watch Inside Job - 2010 Oscar winner for best documentary!

YouTube doesn't have good quality video for this, other than the trailer

http://documentary-movie.com/inside-job/

mariaalice

Inside job is brilliant at explaining how complex financial derivatives and bonds work.

Laois_Man

please helpThank YOU wrote: »

Thank You Just watched it make you think.

Yes, it would all make you think that maybe we should be sending our children to school for them to learn survival skills and hunting skills rather than send them there to learn algebra.

Except we've also destroyed the hunting game stocks, fish stocks etc and the ability to keep land fertile into the future too!

Laois_Man

Just finished watching Four Horsemen.
It's alright but I much preferred Inside Job