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Are we headed for another crash?

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245

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    #32
    KomradeBishop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,981 ✭✭✭KomradeBishop


    Not necessarily another crash, but we are in for permanent-deflation - or at least, permanent until there is a seriously huge change in economic policy.

    Look back at the Great Depression in the 1930's: It was a big crash, followed by an ailing 'recovery' (from a weak stimulus), and then a second smaller crash (from contracting spending) - before WWII war spending created a huge stimulus/recovery - we're in a similar situation now, at the point of the smaller 'crash':
    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2009/Sept/great-depression-unemployment-9.png

    If we are to recover now, it's either going to be through a big change in policy that leads to a massive domestic stimulus, or through a very big war - or we're going to have permanently set-in deflation, and a truly massive increase in income/wealth inequality, that will make the past ~10 years look like a picnic.


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    #33
    Aongus Von Bismarck
    Registered Users Posts: 1,794 ✭✭✭Aongus Von Bismarck


    The Backwards Man wrote: »
    Folks, put everything you have in fancy sausages, Riesling and log cabins.

    It would sure beat investing it in turf, tired anecdotes and inane questions.


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    #34
    wil
    Registered Users Posts: 4,188 ✭✭✭wil


    Aongus Von Bismarck wrote: »
    It would sure beat investing it in turf, tired anecdotes and inane questions.
    So reduce, recycle and reuse (going backwards)


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    #35
    The Backwards Man
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,299 ✭✭✭✭The Backwards Man


    Aongus Von Bismarck wrote: »
    It would sure beat investing it in turf, tired anecdotes and inane questions.
    How come? :D


    Three things that are guaranteed to have a healthy ROI


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    #36
    hairyslug
    Registered Users Posts: 2,589 ✭✭✭hairyslug


    Just tell me when it's time to crack open peoples skulls and feast on the goo inside.


    As long as we all panic it'll be grand, have a cup of tea.


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    #37
    KomradeBishop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,981 ✭✭✭KomradeBishop


    Bongalongherb wrote: »
    I wonder if Steve has an update on this ?

    Steve Keen of which is a professor in economics and finance at the University of Western Sydney. Steve was one of the few economists in the world to predict the past financial crisis.

    Well Steve what do you think ? over to you Steve.
    I know his writing well - I think his position would be, that we're still in the same economic crisis that began in 2007/8 - and that we've been weighed down by the huge amounts of Private Debt, preventing a recovery (absent sufficient stimulus) - i.e. that we are in debt deflation, and that we are now about to see a significant worsening of the debt-deflationary spiral, as the meagre/misdirected stimulus of QE has finally failed (as I predicted it would not far off this time last year).

    Steve Keen's prediction was based on the massive amount of Private Debt that kicked off the 2007/2008 crisis, and since that massive debt hasn't been resolved, there's not really much new to predict - this stage of the crisis (slipping into deflation proper) was just an inevitability waiting to happen, to anyone with knowledge of the above.


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    #38
    BattleCorp
    Registered Users Posts: 11,758 ✭✭✭✭BattleCorp


    seamus wrote: »

    Or you could just not have a pension, like me.


    Feck pensions.

    When people get too old to work and become a burden on society, give them a glass of whiskey and a pistol and ask them to do the decent thing. ;)


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    #39
    cowboyBuilder
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,419 ✭✭✭cowboyBuilder


    Of course it will happen again, it's paddyland where greed and stupidity will kick in.

    Properties in Dublin are already at stupid rates.


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    #40
    screamer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,131 ✭✭✭screamer


    Well sure we'll just all talk it up until it all happens economic hasn't been around long enough to serve us well. Even the crap we learned in school about activities in developed countries had been turned on its head. Everything is cyclical although with economic maybe cynical is a better word.


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    #41
    Ruu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,622 ✭✭✭Ruu


    Lego is the best investment.


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    #42
    FTA69
    Registered Users Posts: 9,252 ✭✭✭FTA69


    Ruu wrote: »
    Lego is the best investment.

    Fact, and when your gaff gets repossessed you can simply build a new one.


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    #43
    Zulu
    Registered Users Posts: 10,965 ✭✭✭✭Zulu


    FTA69 wrote: »
    Fact, and when your gaff gets repossessed you can simply build a new one.
    And you don't need planning permission. Fact.




    may not actually be fact.


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    #44
    c_man
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,436 ✭✭✭c_man


    Zulu wrote: »
    And you don't need planning permission. Fact.




    may not actually be fact.

    No planning permission? Easy. Just attach a few wheel bits to the bottom and you're away!

    *may not be road worthy


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    #45
    K-9
    Registered Users Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    cml387 wrote: »
    See when oil was $150 a barrel we were told the end of the world is nigh.
    Now when it's $30 a barrel the end of the world is still nigh.
    And they call economics a science?

    Social Science I believe, and humans are far more irrational than we realise, including myself!

    Must go and spend these new Punts that were printed in 2010. Even Kenny had to row back on some of the claims he made recently about that time.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



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    #46
    MarkAnthony
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,934 ✭✭✭MarkAnthony


    The Backwards Man wrote: »
    Folks, put everything you have in fancy sausages, Riesling and log cabins.

    Enough Riesling and I'll put my Fancy sausage in pretty much any log cabin.


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    #47
    melissak
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,873 ✭✭✭melissak


    It stands to reason that if we keep doing the same stupid things we will have the same results


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    #48
    Into The Blue
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,358 ✭✭✭Into The Blue


    Bongalongherb wrote: »
    What's a Bund ?

    Captures spillages from leaks in production plants.


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    #49
    Bio Mech
    Registered Users Posts: 1,040 ✭✭✭Bio Mech


    MarkAnthony wrote: »
    Enough Riesling and I'll put my Fancy sausage in pretty much any log cabin.

    Funny yet disturbing image


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    #50
    KomradeBishop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,981 ✭✭✭KomradeBishop


    melissak wrote: »
    It stands to reason that if we keep doing the same stupid things we will have the same results
    It's deliberate though - not something 'we' are doing, something being done to us - it's not a mistake. Looks who stands to gain, through every stage (good and bad) of the crisis: The same people who caused it in the first place.


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    #51
    5rtytry56
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,828 ✭✭✭5rtytry56


    wil wrote: »

    Live in the d'now
    Do the coke and hookers OP.


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    #52
    5rtytry56
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,828 ✭✭✭5rtytry56


    Into The Blue wrote: »
    Captures spillages from leaks in production plants.

    Then edit the captured images for later to edit them and start the conspiracy theories.


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    #53
    jetsonx
    Registered Users Posts: 1,326 ✭✭✭jetsonx


    Don't worry lads. Jim Power from Friends First said it would be a soft landing. Always optimistic our Jim...


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    #54
    Idbatterim
    Registered Users Posts: 17,840 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    Don't worry lads. Jim Power from Friends First said it would be a soft landing. Always optimistic our Jim...
    sure didnt bertie say the same thing?! something something about committing suicide, well it turns out his tongue in cheek comment, turned out pretty accurate...


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    #55
    Laois_Man
    Registered Users Posts: 5,758 ✭✭✭Laois_Man


    Funny this thread should pop up today coz only last night, I read an article on (according to the express) the imminent collapse of Germany and by definition, the Euro

    http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/634309/Europe-on-the-brink-of-financial-meltdown-as-Germany-faces-financial-ruin


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    #56
    Idbatterim
    Registered Users Posts: 17,840 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    you know, and I am not tin foil hatter, but a lot of people stand to make a lot of money when markets collapse. Convince enough people of it and it can become a self fulfilling prophecy!

    Look at the killings that were made here by the "vulture funds" during the downturn for example...


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    #57
    mahoganygas
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,488 ✭✭✭mahoganygas


    Idbatterim wrote:
    you know, and I am not tin foil hatter, but a lot of people stand to make a lot of money when markets collapse. Convince enough people of it and it can become a self fulfilling prophecy!

    Idbatterim wrote:
    Look at the killings that were made here by the "vulture funds" during the downturn for example...

    For every dollar invested in a short position, there is an equal and opposite dollar invested by a counterparty. Which means for every vulture there's a corresponding person on the other side who will do well out of a boom.

    What makes you so sure the bears are the ones tipping the scales?


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    #58
    Bio Mech
    Registered Users Posts: 1,040 ✭✭✭Bio Mech


    Laois_Man wrote: »
    Funny this thread should pop up today coz only last night, I read an article on (according to the express) the imminent collapse of Germany and by definition, the Euro

    http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/634309/Europe-on-the-brink-of-financial-meltdown-as-Germany-faces-financial-ruin

    The Express is a rag of pro British and anti EU sabre rattling. It has been spouting that rhetoric for years.

    You cant really trust what they say while they have such an obvious agenda IMO. You hear the same from financial analysts on Sky all the time while they pretend everything is the UK is rosy while Europe is doomed.


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    #59
    Elemonator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,271 ✭✭✭Elemonator


    Oil was always artificially high.


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    #60
    MRnotlob606
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,642 ✭✭✭MRnotlob606


    Elemonator wrote: »
    Oil was always artificially high.

    Oil is also very sexy. It enhances sexual experience when your partner is dripping in a non renewable fossil fuel.

    Coal also works


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    #61
    JustTheOne
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,681 ✭✭✭JustTheOne


    Our crash was largely in part to the construction industry.

    Too many houses been built noone to buy them.

    This time around we seem to have learned, but we still have the left crying for 100,000 houses to be built.

    Sound familiar?


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