The early wildcard v the dgw wildcard

Iused2likebusts · 06-01-2016 12:03am #1

Have started this thread to see how this pans out to give us something to help us when deciding on wildcarding next year. The new chips and the change in the wildcard rules has resulted in the general feeling being that you should wildcard before the dgws. Id agree with that in once your happy with your team and not taking lots of hits to sort things out. However I feel if your not happy with your team you can do yourself more damage by waiting till then.
Ive a feeling when the dgws come we will have a lot of comments about the success of being able to use your wildcard just before them. As statistically you should get a higher score by being able to fit in more dgw players and also the fact that your on wildcard and can pick whoever you want.
I think its wrong to judge the success of it on a couple of weeks that are stacked in favour of the dgw wildcarder.
You have to factor in did the early wildcarders get an advantage that late wildcarders missed out on. Such as an initial points boost, team value gain.Lack of points hits.

The main thing Im interested in is the number of extra players late wildcarders get over early wildcarders in the dgws and the blank gws.

While we can compare points its in the lap of the gods who delivers on any given week. Even last week id one of my strongest teams out this season 9 players at home all with good fixtures. I got 29 points and a 3 mill plus gw rank.

Im looking at comparing team value, points, point hits from now till season end and number of players played in gw 30,34,35,37. Ill update this every 2 gws for the next 6 gws and then from gw 30 on.

Wildcarders - busts, csf, donal, spock,fingers,km79, mike ehrmantrau
Average points gw 20 1,086 average team value 106.4

Dgw wildcarders lemlin,iroced,fhfc,greedygoblin,tilted brain, kilburn, klopparama
Average points gw 20 1,066 average team value 107.4

Im waiting on klopparamas team id so will update the above when I get it.
I wasnt expecting the wildcarders to have a current higher points average and the non wildcarders have a million extra team value.

FHFC · 06-01-2016 12:23am

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Have started this thread to see how this pans out to give us something to help us when deciding on wildcarding next year. The new chips and the change in the wildcard rules has resulted in the general feeling being that you should wildcard before the dgws. Id agree with that in once your happy with your team and not taking lots of hits to sort things out. However I feel if your not happy with your team you can do yourself more damage by waiting till then.
Ive a feeling when the dgws come we will have a lot of comments about the success of being able to use your wildcard just before them. As statistically you should get a higher score by being able to fit in more dgw players and also the fact that your on wildcard and can pick whoever you want.
I think its wrong to judge the success of it on a couple of weeks that are stacked in favour of the dgw wildcarder.
You have to factor in did the early wildcarders get an advantage that late wildcarders missed out on. Such as an initial points boost, team value gain.Lack of points hits.

The main thing Im interested in is the number of extra players late wildcarders get over early wildcarders in the dgws and the blank gws.

While we can compare points its in the lap of the gods who delivers on any given week. Even last week id one of my strongest teams out this season 9 players at home all with good fixtures. I got 29 points and a 3 mill plus gw rank.

Im looking at comparing team value, points, point hits from now till season end and number of players played in gw 30,34,35,37. Ill update this every 2 gws for the next 6 gws and then from gw 30 on.

Wildcarders - busts, csf, donal, spock,fingers,km79, mike ehrmantrau
Average points gw 20 1,086 average team value 106.4

Dgw wildcarders lemlin,iroced,fhfc,greedygoblin,tilted brain, kilburn, klopparama
Average points gw 20 1,066 average team value 107.4

Im waiting on klopparamas team id so will update the above when I get it.
I wasnt expecting the wildcarders to have a current higher points average and the non wildcarders have a million extra team value.

This needs a spreadsheet!

And maybe some graphs.

extra gravy · 06-01-2016 12:24am

FHFC wrote: »

This needs a spreadsheet!

And maybe some graphs.

Ha you're in your element now :pac:

Iused2likebusts · 06-01-2016 12:25am

FHFC wrote: »

This needs a spreadsheet!

And maybe some graphs.

Ye and when things get a bit more complicated you can be the man to put it together:p

F1ngers · 06-01-2016 12:36am

FHFC wrote: »

This needs a spreadsheet!

And maybe some graphs.

And pie charts, everybody likes pie.
Mmm, pie.

[Deleted User] · 06-01-2016 12:39am

Looks great! Been wrecking my head this one too. I'm gonna ply bench boost + triple captain on the first one and aim for all out attack on the other. I think these dgw will cause a lot of movement in the tables.

Iused2likebusts · 06-01-2016 12:42am

Pappa Dolla wrote: »

Looks great! Been wrecking my head this one too. I'm gonna ply bench boost + triple captain on the first one and aim for all out attack on the other. I think these dgw will cause a lot of movement in the tables.

you can only play one chip at a time. There should be 3 dgws so your sorted.

greedygoblin · 06-01-2016 1:04am

This will be very interesting to see how it works out. Well done busts for taking the time to do it.

As you say tv, average points of the two groups is the striking thing starting off. For those of us with a lower than we'd like overall rank, I wonder will this affect how we play the game over the rest of the season? Like riskier captain choices, dodgy one week punts, more points hits etc. Could end up being quite a bit of variation between the two camps.

SteelyDanJalapeno · 06-01-2016 1:39am

I am pulling the dgw avg down something wicked

Mike Ehrmantraut · 06-01-2016 1:42am

Well done busts. Looking forward to see how this pans out.
Hadn't planned on using the wildcard so early, but so far behind in private leagues, needed to do something to hopefully drag myself back into the running.
And, yeah, pie charts, we need some pie charts around here

Mike Ehrmantraut · 06-01-2016 1:59am

TiltedBrain wrote: »

I am pulling the dgw avg down something wicked

Lol, I'm probably doing the same for the wildcarders

Mr.Prodston · 06-01-2016 2:47am

"FSA Investigates: Special Wildcard Unit" is brought to you by Prodston Productions.

Each week we'll get an update from lead researcher Iused2likebusts on our progress culminating with what we hope will be a significant moment in DGW history.

Our statistical team will crunch the numbers using the latest technology provided by Microsoft Office 2003. FHFC will be at the helm while we'll have F1ngers in the pie....chart.

In a more personal slot there'll be a "Behind the Wildcard" where we'll learn about our participants previous WC escapades.

Of course everyone is looking forward to "WC vs DGW" where each week a member from both sides faces off before one can be crowned weekly champion. Expect fireworks here when an early WC falters at the hands of team riddled with injuries sees 3rd sub Andrew Surman break hearts with a late assist.

Ultimately we'll go on a journey together in these unprecedented times where what we previously knew to be true could be shattered.

All this exclusive to the FSA Network. I'll be your host Mr.P as we take these steps together towards our destiny, won't you join me live from Prodston Towers each week. However for now may all your luck be inconsequential, and remember:

If it ain't PVA the defence won't stick!

FHFC · 06-01-2016 10:59am

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Ye and when things get a bit more complicated you can be the man to put it together:p

I never need much of an excuse to lash together a nice spreadsheet.

PARlance · 12-01-2016 12:43am

So how are the WC'ers getting on? It would be interesting to see pre and post WC teams and if there are many changes or was it just a few tweaks.

FHFC · 12-01-2016 1:05am

PARlance wrote: »

So how are the WC'ers getting on? It would be interesting to see pre and post WC teams and if there are many changes or was it just a few tweaks.

Will be interesting to see the 'early wildcard template' all right.

Of draft teams I've seen I'm heartened to see a lot that are very similar to my current side. KdB being the big exception that I don't have.

Mike Ehrmantraut · 12-01-2016 1:16am

Transfers:
De Gea - Courtois
McCarthy - Elliot
Bellerin - Cresswell
Kolarov - Sagna
Arnautivic - Payet

Wildcard team

Courtois Elliot
Alderweirld Sagna Cresswell Ward Simpson
Kdb Ozil Payet Mahrez Alli
Aguero Lukaku Kane

Had expected to make another change (Harry Kane) but giving Kane the next 2 gw's.

Was very tempted to go with a front 8 of
Kdb Yaya Sanchez Ozil Alli
Aguero Lukaku Ighalo.
But thought it was overkill on city attacking players and would have left me with zero in the bank

manual_man · 12-01-2016 1:29am

PARlance wrote: »

So how are the WC'ers getting on? It would be interesting to see pre and post WC teams and if there are many changes or was it just a few tweaks.

7 changes myself, so quite a difference. Aguero, Payet, Alli, Alder all in my squad now. And other transfers freed up some funds so it shouldn't be too hard to get Sanchez in should I wish to. But honestly it's simply about salvaging my train wreck of a season from here on in. Aguero and Payet will be differentials, at least in the short term anyway, so hopefully they can do some damage. Aguero's man of the match display in the cup gives me hope he could be close to back to his best. Captaincy going straight on him

PARlance · 12-01-2016 1:41am

FHFC wrote: »

Will be interesting to see the 'early wildcard template' all right.

Of draft teams I've seen I'm heartened to see a lot that are very similar to my current side. KdB being the big exception that I don't have.

Despite being well adrift, I'm in the same boat. Aguero and Payet are in and while I could do with a little trim at the back, I just couldn't see a WC in it.

FHFC · 12-01-2016 1:56am

PARlance wrote: »

Despite being well adrift, I'm in the same boat. Aguero and Payet are in and while I could do with a little trim at the back, I just couldn't see a WC in it.

I took a -8 on Boxing day to set myself up. I was early to the drop Vardy wagon and to have an Aguero, Kane, Lukaku front line. Thankfully the hit seems ti have pointed me in the right direction.

I'll be able to do Arnie to KdB next week. But may well get Sanchez instead.

Iused2likebusts · 12-01-2016 10:29am

PARlance wrote: »

So how are the WC'ers getting on? It would be interesting to see pre and post WC teams and if there are many changes or was it just a few tweaks.

I'm on 10 changes with my current team thats yet to be finalised. My whole back 7 have been changed and 3 of my front 8. This is why I wildcarded mainly as I wanted to go much cheaper at the back.

loadwire · 12-01-2016 12:03pm

Cheers for doing this, will be interested to see how it pans out.

Obviously it's not as black and white as early Jan v DGW - a lot of players will be somewhere in between the two extremes. For example, those badly in need of a rejig now might prefer to take one or two hits and limp until end of Jan window at least (think I'd bite the bullet myself).

Others won't want to leave it as late as GW33/34. I'm in this camp at the moment. No guarantee of a high score that week so I'd prefer to get 8-10 gameweeks 'value' out of my 2nd wildcard rather than putting all my eggs in that basket. Also, barring replays I think we'll know what teams will be having a DGW in week 34 by around week 28 so you could still roughly gear your squad towards it if you used it at that point. I have that week vaguely earmarked for mine, though at the end of the day I suppose it's that gut feeling of when your team needs fixing.

I much prefer the new w/c system - makes the timing of them much more interesting tactically.

SkySter · 12-01-2016 1:39pm

loadwire wrote: »

Cheers for doing this, will be interested to see how it pans out.

Obviously it's not as black and white as early Jan v DGW - a lot of players will be somewhere in between the two extremes. For example, those badly in need of a rejig now might prefer to take one or two hits and limp until end of Jan window at least (think I'd bite the bullet myself).

Others won't want to leave it as late as GW33/34. I'm in this camp at the moment. No guarantee of a high score that week so I'd prefer to get 8-10 gameweeks 'value' out of my 2nd wildcard rather than putting all my eggs in that basket. Also, barring replays I think we'll know what teams will be having a DGW in week 34 by around week 28 so you could still roughly gear your squad towards it if you used it at that point. I have that week vaguely earmarked for mine, though at the end of the day I suppose it's that gut feeling of when your team needs fixing.

I much prefer the new w/c system - makes the timing of them much more interesting tactically.

Agree with this. A lot will depend for me on where I am in my league. My ideal scenario is to play the WC on the last DGW of the season to get me into a significant lead and not have to worry about remaining transfers too much. If I play it too early I've a real fear that the advantage of the short term lead playing TC or Bench boost will be lost if I have to unwind the transfers over the subsequent game weeks. In past years I've screwed up good solid teams built up over several game weeks by making too many changes on the WC. This one needs very careful consideration.

F1ngers · 12-01-2016 3:48pm

From this:
[URL="[url=https://flic.kr/p/C88i2V][img]https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1682/23709482203_c50601a552_z.jpg[/img][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/C88i2V]ScreenHunter_252 Jan. 12 14.25[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/79073232@N06/]F1ngers2[/url]"][/url]

To this:
[URL="[url=https://flic.kr/p/D3cNU7][img]https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1525/24310137406_ac8a3fc518_b.jpg[/img][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/D3cNU7]ScreenHunter_253 Jan. 12 14.27[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/79073232@N06/]F1ngers2[/url], on Flickr"][/url]

I kept four players, Aguero, Kane, Arnautovic and Simpson.

Plan in next 2/3 weeks is that Arnautovic will make way for Sanchez.
Will also have to sell Costa and bring back Lukaku to fund it.

For good or bad, this is what I've settled on...

Jaggo · 12-01-2016 4:21pm

About Wolls, his next five game weeks are:
13 Jan 19:45 Gameweek 21 Norwich (H)
17 Jan 16:15 Gameweek 22 Arsenal (H)
23 Jan 15:00 Gameweek 23 Leicester (A)
02 Feb 20:00 Gameweek 24 Man Utd (A)
06 Feb 15:00 Gameweek 25 Everton (H)

Maybe someone better short term?

Iused2likebusts · 15-01-2016 12:02am

After 1 gw for the 7 players
Non wildcarders got 202 pts and there TV went up .4
Wildcarders got 201 pts and there TV went down .2
Between the 14 of us the lowest score was 22 busts:( and the highest score was fhfc 34. The non wildcarders took 4 hits between the 7 of them which has been deducted from their score.
Im not sure how valuable the TV data will be RV would be more relevant. Id imagine the wildcarders TV dropped due to having players in in the short term to try and make the elusive .2 profit.
I think the wildcarders are unfortunate the way the week panned out with nobody bar payet delivering from an attacking sense and only city keeping a CS of the teams a wildcarder would have played. Usually you would expect and get a short term bounce from a wildcard. There are some crazy weeks like the gw we just had throughout the season and none of us can predict when that will happen.
My team if I hadnt wildcarded would have got me 10 extra points and it was much weaker on paper than the one I ended up having with my wildcard.

km79 · 15-01-2016 12:07am

After watching MOTD and with city Chelsea and Spurs at home again I think the bounce will come Saturday

when people least expect it

PARlance · 15-01-2016 12:54am

I don't want to kick men when they're down but I'm going to

And I hope a few earlier comments protect me from accusations of aftertiming.... Last week was never the week for a WC, it was a frustration WC in my eyes.

There was only one real transfer needed imo, that being Payet. Aguero if you didn't have him and a case for Costa too.
Anything outside of that, was just a case of reshuffling defences from what I've seen. I say reshuffling rather than improving as no team(s) is really shouting out as must haves. When Spurs are the most "must have" defensive unit, it says a lot for the fairly poor returns from defences across the board.

I only saw one WC team (think it was Spock) that really looked like it was a WC with a difference. It was far enough from template but with nice possibilities to make a difference.
All the rest weren't far off template and I'm not surprised the scoring was so close between those who WC'd and not. Even if it was a high scoring week, I think the scores would have been similar.

Sorry guys

Vote Busts

Iused2likebusts · 15-01-2016 1:28pm

PARlance wrote: »

I don't want to kick men when they're down but I'm going to And I hope a few earlier comments protect me from accusations of aftertiming.... Last week was never the week for a WC, it was a frustration WC in my eyes.

There was only one real transfer needed imo, that being Payet. Aguero if you didn't have him and a case for Costa too.
Anything outside of that, was just a case of reshuffling defences from what I've seen. I say reshuffling rather than improving as no team(s) is really shouting out as must haves. When Spurs are the most "must have" defensive unit, it says a lot for the fairly poor returns from defences across the board.

I only saw one WC team (think it was Spock) that really looked like it was a WC with a difference. It was far enough from template but with nice possibilities to make a difference.
All the rest weren't far off template and I'm not surprised the scoring was so close between those who WC'd and not. Even if it was a high scoring week, I think the scores would have been similar.

Sorry guys Vote Busts

Personally I had to wildcard as I wanted to readjust my team shape from a strong front 8 with relatively expensive defence . To a cheap defence with the scope for getting in as many big hitters as possible.
Before wildcard my eleven this week was
Ddg
Walker Dawson jos
Ramsey ozil kdb mahrez
Vardy lukaku kane
After wildcard
Hennesey
Williams Daniels wolly
Mahrez kdb alli Pedro
Aguero kane lukaku
Normally the wildcard team would outscore the pre wildcard team. When I wildcarded it was also hoped that Sanchez would be back and I would have had him in my team. I know can get him in 1 transfer.
If I didn't wildcard I was getting Aguero and it was costing me 8 pts and I still wouldn't be happy with my team and would need more point hits to get Sanchez in and change my team structure.
Despite my poor score I'm happy with my teams points potential over the next 6 gws.
The key reason I wanted to do this thread is to see how many extra players playing a late wildcarder gets over an early wildcarder and the amount of hits that were taking by both sides over the time period.
My opinion is that if your looking at anything over a 12 pt hit to sort your team out your best to wildcard rather than waiting for the doubles. The ideal scenario is to be happy with your team and wait for the doubles .
We were also in a scenario of a few teams having 4 homes in the next 6 and half the teams having 2 home games in a row which statistically should improve your chance of getting points.

SteelyDanJalapeno · 19-01-2016 2:01pm

Any Wildcarders this week?

Iused2likebusts · 21-01-2016 1:57pm

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

After 1 gw for the 7 players
Non wildcarders got 202 pts and there TV went up .4
Wildcarders got 201 pts and there TV went down .2
Between the 14 of us the lowest score was 22 busts:( and the highest score was fhfc 34. The non wildcarders took 4 hits between the 7 of them which has been deducted from their score.
Im not sure how valuable the TV data will be RV would be more relevant. Id imagine the wildcarders TV dropped due to having players in in the short term to try and make the elusive .2 profit.
I think the wildcarders are unfortunate the way the week panned out with nobody bar payet delivering from an attacking sense and only city keeping a CS of the teams a wildcarder would have played. Usually you would expect and get a short term bounce from a wildcard. There are some crazy weeks like the gw we just had throughout the season and none of us can predict when that will happen.
My team if I hadnt wildcarded would have got me 10 extra points and it was much weaker on paper than the one I ended up having with my wildcard.

Quick update on this the wildcards got 539 pts between them an average of 77 pts. The dgw wildcarders got 478 pts an average of 68 pts. So after 2 gws the wildcarders on average have 9 pts more. This wildcard bounce is to be expected( but not guaranteed) and is something that needs to be factored in when dgw wildcarders should outscore early wildcarders later when the double comes about.
The key difference I noticed is that 6 of the 7 wildcard teams had both Swansea and Bournemouth defensive coverage. Some combo of rangel, Williams, smith, Daniels. Some of us had Williams and Daniels, some had rangel, and 1 benched Williams. Of the non wildcarders only fhfc had Williams a player he had a few weeks. With aguero and payet returning defensive transfers werent gping to be high priority for a non wildcarder. Obviously Williams and Daniels scoring is a lucky event for those with both the flipside is that I'd class what happened the previous gw as unlucky for a wildcarder with basically no player bar payet delivering.

iroced · 21-01-2016 8:08pm

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Quick update on this the wildcards got 539 pts between them an average of 77 pts. The dgw wildcarders got 478 pts an average of 68 pts. So after 2 gws the wildcarders on average have 9 pts more. This wildcard bounce is to be expected( but not guaranteed) and is something that needs to be factored in when dgw wildcarders should outscore early wildcarders later when the double comes about.
The key difference I noticed is that 6 of the 7 wildcard teams had both Swansea and Bournemouth defensive coverage. Some combo of rangel, Williams, smith, Daniels. Some of us had Williams and Daniels, some had rangel, and 1 benched Williams. Of the non wildcarders only fhfc had Williams a player he had a few weeks. With aguero and payet returning defensive transfers werent gping to be high priority for a non wildcarder. Obviously Williams and Daniels scoring is a lucky event for those with both the flipside is that I'd class what happened the previous gw as unlucky for a wildcarder with basically no player bar payet delivering.

Daniels & Williams combined for something like an 18 pts bonus over the best expected scenario (Williams 9 pts & Daniels 6). This is a pretty rare bonus for the early WCers who got both of them. I don't quite get how someone benched Williams? Home to Watford and knowing how much a bonus magnet he is.

You can't average it to the previous GW unlucky outcome though since no one performed bar Payet among the popular WC & non-WC players!

The early wildcard v the dgw wildcard

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