2016 share picks

daheff

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Any reason to not throw the kitchen sink at shorting USD/TRY?

I can see Turkey turning into a complete basket case of a country and they won't be joining the EU in our lifetime by the looks of it.

cant see them ever joining EU.

Shorting TRY could be a good play...maybe not. The country hasn't fallen apart since the attempted coup. Its still business as usual there.

BrokenArrows

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Any reason to not throw the kitchen sink at shorting USD/TRY?

I can see Turkey turning into a complete basket case of a country and they won't be joining the EU in our lifetime by the looks of it.

Just doing some reading on Turkey. Erdogan is doing some scary ****. It could well turn into a serious **** storm.

Cute Hoor

Sonnenblumen wrote: »

@Cute Hoor, your maths are correct but surely the key point arising from your analysis is that investors buying/selling shares in another currency are best advised to do so in same currency and avoid undermining investment performance by currency fluctuations.

I would have thought this fundamental to investing in any foreign shares?

Of course you have to buy/sell in the currency the shares are traded in, buy in £ if your're buying FTSE, buy in $ if you're buying NYSE etc. But the issue is you're starting and finishing currency is Euro.

Convert € to £, buy in £, win/lose in £, sell in £, convert £ back to €.

So you are at the mercy of the currency machinations, for better or worse. Right now, for somebody who bought FTSE a year ago they are suffering to the tune of 20+% on the exchange rate.

Sonnenblumen

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Of course you have to buy/sell in the currency the shares are traded in, buy in £ if your're buying FTSE, buy in $ if you're buying NYSE etc. But the issue is you're starting and finishing currency is Euro.

Convert € to £, buy in £, win/lose in £, sell in £, convert £ back to €.

So you are at the mercy of the currency machinations, for better or worse. Right now, for somebody who bought FTSE a year ago they are suffering to the tune of 20+% on the exchange rate.

Why do you assume the starting & finishing is €? That is the flaw in your repeated argument. Similarly if one is trading in more than one currency, your other assertion of suffering 20+% is flawed.

I cannot understand why you insist on posting contrarian comments when you actually do not have the full facts. You just don't get it, so let's leave it there.

Cute Hoor

Sonnenblumen wrote: »

Why do you assume the starting & finishing is €? That is the flaw in your repeated argument. Similarly if one is trading in more than one currency, your other assertion of suffering 20+% is flawed.

I cannot understand why you insist on posting contrarian comments when you actually do not have the full facts. You just don't get it, so let's leave it there.

I would hope that I am not posting contrarian comments (certainly not intentionally).

Anybody who has a Euro only based income stream and is using that Euro only based income stream to purchase FTSE shares is down 20+% (on FTSE shares they bought a year ago) in the currency element of those transactions, I presume there cannot be any dispute about that.

Anybody who has a £ based income stream and is using that £ based income stream to purchase FTSE shares will obviously see no change (on FTSE shares they bought a year ago) in the currency element of those transactions. TBH it would make absolutely no sense to suggest otherwise.

Obviously I don't have the full facts of you're (or indeed anybodys) particular circumstances, I'm now assuming that you're income stream is £, in which case there has been no change. I'm assuming that most people here are probably using a Euro income stream as it is an Irish based site.

Green Mile

Anyone know why Gold is taking such a hit on the markets? I had thought with the Hard Brexit comments recently, gold would have increased but AU share price and GOLD share prices are in the red

championc

championc wrote:

My 19 year old son is mad I into PC's and gaming. A few weeks ago, he told me to get NVIDIA since the had some great new graphics card coming out. He kept going on and on about it so feck it, I threw in eur500 at about 40.80 each. They just tipped over 47.00 this evening.

So we've doubled our money in 6 months - just surged into the mid 80's. Of course, it would be greedy to wish I invested more

championc

championc wrote:

My 19 year old son is mad I into PC's and gaming. A few weeks ago, he told me to get NVIDIA since the had some great new graphics card coming out. He kept going on and on about it so feck it, I threw in eur500 at about 40.80 each. They just tipped over 47.00 this evening.

So we've doubled our money in 6 months - just surged into the mid 80's. Of course, it would be greedy to wish I invested more

irish_investr

RE: 2016 share picks, the thread title...:)

on the irishinvestor-dot-ie site I put up a "Dogs of the ISEQ" chart in the Investor Tools section. A copy-cat of the "Dogs of the Dow" strategy (buying the worst ones) Will be interesting to see how it goes. The DOW version has a 50 year track record of successful performance..

ABC101

Anybody have opinions of Hibernia Reit? SP seems to range up and down quiet a bit, was at 1.4 some weeks back, now down to 1.18 and still dropping.
I bought at 1.26, sold at 1.37, made a small profit, but happy to have gotten out. Dividend payments don't seem great and management payment structure has put me off this stock.
Thoughts anybody?

drunkmonkey

championc wrote: »

championc wrote:

My 19 year old son is mad I into PC's and gaming. A few weeks ago, he told me to get NVIDIA since the had some great new graphics card coming out. He kept going on and on about it so feck it, I threw in eur500 at about 40.80 each. They just tipped over 47.00 this evening.

So we've doubled our money in 6 months - just surged into the mid 80's. Of course, it would be greedy to wish I invested more

Keep an eye on Nintendo there primed for a real bounce back if the new console goes the right way., Nvidia graphics card in it. Also launching games on iOS. I'm expecting them to rocket if the console goes down well.
Nvidia also teamed up the other day with I think the American cancer research to help cure cancer. Something like Microsoft is doing.

irish_investr

ABC101 wrote: »

Anybody have opinions of Hibernia Reit? SP seems to range up and down quiet a bit, was at 1.4 some weeks back, now down to 1.18 and still dropping.
I bought at 1.26, sold at 1.37, made a small profit, but happy to have gotten out. Dividend payments don't seem great and management payment structure has put me off this stock.
Thoughts anybody?

I was just playing around with some technical analysis and saw that Hibernia just had a death cross in the first week or so of november.
usually people say that death cross is a "sell signal", I'm not so sure about that.
Anyhow, i saw that the dividend rate is just 1.13% - a bit on the low side, as you said.

daheff

irish_investr wrote: »

I was just playing around with some technical analysis and saw that Hibernia just had a death cross in the first week or so of november.
usually people say that death cross is a "sell signal", I'm not so sure about that.
Anyhow, i saw that the dividend rate is just 1.13% - a bit on the low side, as you said.

can you explain what you mean by a death cross?


I had this stock early this year...bought at 1.23 sold at 1.40.

bought back in last week at 1.19. I think its undervalued and there is some upside to 1.30ish. Also think IRES is ripe for picking too.

irish_investr

"The death cross is when a short-term moving average crosses to the downside through a long-term moving average. The most commonly used moving averages when assessing a death cross are the 50-day moving average and the 200-day moving average."

Again, not something I put much faith in, but sometimes i find it interesting to try to understand how the "T.A." team might be thinking Generally I often find that a lot of the downturn is already finished by the time a deathcross has triggered.
So you're up 17 already, and looking for another 11. Wouldn't be a bad performance at all, if you can swing it - good luck!

Cute Hoor

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Banco Santander €4.36
CRH €26.39
Daimler €73.19
Moncler €12.23

Hopefully to make 10% at some stage in 2016
Well done JoeyD, on starting the topic, and being 10% up already on VOW

Happy new year investing to all

The year is almost up so time for the annual report

Banco Santander €4.99 (+14.45%)
CRH €31.80 (+20.50%)
Daimler €71.11 (-2.84%) although the 4.4% dividend puts DAI in the black
Moncler €16.59 (+35.65%)

In what has been generally a good year for shares there have been some spectacular results, I will be keeping an eye out for the 2017 picks of markjbloggs who posted immediately after me back in January and has had returns of 37%, 55%, and 124% on 3 of his 4 picks, and another 3%+ on the exchange rate, well done sir.

alb

alb wrote: »

Still holding bitcoins.

Will come back with my share choices for 2016 when the arse stops dropping out of everything else.

This worked out fairly well. Up about 100% on bitcoin this year. Bought some BKIR speculating that Brexit wouldn't happen, bought a lot more all the way down to 18.5c. Am slightly up on that as it currently stands.

Nvidia was the one that got away this year...

Prezatch

Prezatch wrote: »

An annual thread that is always interesting... my picks are:

NFLX Netflix 109.96
RYA Ryanair 14.87
VOW3 Volkswagen 119.4
BET Betfair 38.69

Decent returns on Netflix and VOW (10-15%), Ryanair slightly down and Betfair had a strong January but this has been more than eroded away since the merger with PP.

It was a quite a rough and tumble year but we got through it in the end. As always, another year of learning. I dipped in and out of a lot stocks during the year and this strategy worked well given the volatility.

I think this year will be a strong year for semi conductors such as micron technology and AMD below... and who knows if NVidia can continue their phenomenal streak. Also think more recovery is due for European banks, but am avoiding Italy.

My picks are:

CS Credit Suisse 15.48
BKIR Bank of Ireland 0.242
AMD 11.51
GILD Gilead Sciences 74.05
NOK Nokia 4.9

jive

jive wrote: »

RARE ($51.64) & BMRN ($65.11). 2 orphan drug companies with good pipelines which were hit harder than most by the Shkreli scandal due to the area in which they operate.

Currently RARE ($72.99) and BMRN ($84.98).

26.08% and 30.52% gains, respectively. Easy enough year to pick some winners really, especially given the last month or two of strong returns across most sectors. As mentioned at the time I didn't invest in either of these as I just invest in ETFs.

For ever odd

#19

For ever odd wrote: »

Anything that does not break below last year's lows (August 24 in most case's) by month end, goes on my watchlist.

Probably be a short list.

#100

We will probably have a day like August 24th again. So much fear in the markets right now...

Without doubt. The thing is the last computer generated flash crashes was in upward bull markets. Which if we are in a downward bear market the next Flash could be to the upside......a flash Dash maybe.. All speculation of course.

Good year! Really liked this at the time, and four days before what became know as the "Jamie Dimon dip". Overall, on the right side of the big moves throughout the year, with Some stinkers on individual stocks and thinking clinton would win.

Exceedingly happy with performance, and getting stronger with each passing year.

Hollister11

2017

Bank Of Ireland currently @ .24c

Green Mile

Hollister11 wrote: »

2017

Bank Of Ireland currently @ .24c

Even with Brexit down the tracks?

championc

championc wrote:

My 19 year old son is mad I into PC's and gaming. A few weeks ago, he told me to get NVIDIA since the had some great new graphics card coming out. He kept going on and on about it so feck it, I threw in eur500 at about 40.80 each. They just tipped over 47.00 this evening.

Maybe I'll ask him for his next tip

Well i don't ever think my son saw 100+ coming. We're still holding.

He convinced me to throw eur500 at AMD a few weeks ago. We're obviously missed the main boat on this one though

philippoc93

Cairn Homes (+20.04%) - holding
Hibernia REIT (-2.10%) - holding
Devon Energy (+84%) - sold
Plumas Bancorp (70%) - sold
Bellatrix Exploration (-2.67%) - holding
Houston Wire and Cable (20%) - holding
Limoneira - (+13%) - holding
Image Sensing Systems (-2%) - holding
Scorpio Tankers (-10%) - holding

Decent year overall, but looking to rotate more into Europe in 2017. 

Anybody looking at independent News & Media for 2017? It's got some very eye catching metrics. I don't like the pension issue though. 

Send me a PM if you want to discuss picks for 2017

Phil

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Hollister11 wrote: »

2017

Bank Of Ireland currently @ .24c

Got in at .19c in November

y0ssar1an22

How do people feel about buying US shares? would you be put off by the current exchange rate?

1st dalkey dalkey

ABC101 wrote: »

Anybody have opinions of Hibernia Reit? SP seems to range up and down quiet a bit, was at 1.4 some weeks back, now down to 1.18 and still dropping.
I bought at 1.26, sold at 1.37, made a small profit, but happy to have gotten out. Dividend payments don't seem great and management payment structure has put me off this stock.
Thoughts anybody?

Think the management pay structure is an issue.
But also they have had a number of issues with their portfolio of properties. The Harcourt Square issue was heading for the courts until recently and the negotiated result is not really great for them. Putting off development of the site for 6 years. God knows what the environment will be like then.
There is also some nervousness about the rent controls being talked about in government, not as big an issue for Hib as for ires, but their apartments in Ballinteer will be effected when renewed.

championc

When looking at an investment in a 2017 list, if i was to pick 5, how much per stock is realistically the minimum worth investing ?

newacc2015

championc wrote: »

When looking at an investment in a 2017 list, if i was to pick 5, how much per stock is realistically the minimum worth investing ?

Depends. The fact you trade stocks for a few cents on Degiro and even some ETFS for free with them, means even small purchases are now economical. Irish and US stocks are relatively cheap to buy on degiro, when you buy other European stocks like UK or German, you have to pay €4 plus a small amount of commission. Then you have to pay a fee per exchange you have shares on.

So having a small purchases of US and Irish shares can be economical. Having small purchases on several European exchanges is a bit futile.

05eaftqbrs9jlh

Peyton Loud Alternator wrote:

Got in at .19c in November

Well you wouldn't invest in something on the way down now, would you?!

Hollister11

Danielle Dead Rumor wrote: »

Well you wouldn't invest in something on the way down now, would you?!

Why is it on the way down. Trump, Brexit?