2016 share picks

Prezatch

An annual thread that is always interesting... my picks are:

NFLX Netflix 109.96
RYA Ryanair 14.87
VOW3 Volkswagen 119.4
BET Betfair 38.69

Hibrasil

Intrexon Corporation I5X.F (Frankfurt) €27.40
Pilgrim's Pride Corporation 6.PPF (Frankfurt) €20.35:)

Cute Hoor

Banco Santander €4.36
CRH €26.39
Daimler €73.19
Moncler €12.23

Hopefully to make 10% at some stage in 2016
Well done JoeyD, on starting the topic, and being 10% up already on VOW

Happy new year investing to all

markjbloggs

DDD - 3d Systems = $9.74
HIMX - Himax Tech = $8.21
KMI - Kinder Morgan = $15.12
CENX - Century Aluminium = $4.25

The spiv

ATNM- Actinium Pharmaceuticials -$3.11
BBRY- Blackberry- $8.86
OPKO- Opko Health Care- $9.83
SUNE- Sunedision- $5.66

Earleybird

Irish concentration of BoI, PP, RYA, Dalata, H REIT and Aryzta

I would be a little nervous about returns in 2016 considering worldwide events though, I would hope that Ireland is still viewed as a success story for investment if we see a big sell-off globally in the next few months.

Andrea B.

ASSA ABLOY AB (STO) = SKK 172.6
NXP SEMICONDUCTORS (FRA:VNX) =€0.7486
Foundation Medicine Inc (NASDAQ) =$19.48
Datalex PLC (ISEQ) =€3.05

Thargor

Earleybird wrote: »

Irish concentration of BoI, PP, RYA, Dalata, H REIT and Aryzta

I would be a little nervous about returns in 2016 considering worldwide events though, I would hope that Ireland is still viewed as a success story for investment if we see a big sell-off globally in the next few months.

Im wondering about investing anything in 2016 tbh, everything on my watchlist is flat or down, never seen it this bad.

daheff

Thargor wrote: »

Im wondering about investing anything in 2016 tbh, everything on my watchlist is flat or down, never seen it this bad.

I'm thinking that 2016 is going to be a year of buying on the dips and selling on the peaks. From what I can garner of commentary, its going to be a volatile year, but volatility=profits if you buy/sell at the right time.


This year I'm still long BKIR, HBRN, KYGA and can see good times for UNA.

outside bet is PZQA (Providence)

Long USD/GBP short EUR :eek:

Atlantic Dawn

NFLX Netflix $116.33
RTN Raytheon $125.08
TSCO Tesco £140.39

_Tombstone_

Netflix...can only go up after today.

http://www.cnet.com/news/netflix-goes-live-in-130-new-countries/

newacc2015

Chipotle: (CMG):$426.72 Their share price has been destroyed as they have been connected with countless cases of food poisoning etc. It can be addressed with supply change/company policy changes

Macy's Inc (NYSE:M) $36.14 The value of Macy's real estate holding is about $20bn but the shares value the company at around $12/13bn. It should benefit from a recovering US economy and cost cutting

Cairn Homes (CRN) €1.18

kenmccarthy

Wouldn't touch vw....lots of pain ahead.
Ryanair still 'safe bet' .
Netflix does look like a punt.
Still got a bucket load of BOI..... It'll be a slow - burner. ....medium to long term punt

lucky john

all my picks are looking beyond 2016 with 2017 as a minimum time frame.

Smurfit Kappa 22.80 US buy out target???
Bank of Ire .3375c Dividends on the way
Audioboom (Boom; AIM) .0437p Boom maybe. Bust..not impossible, but its market positioning is good.
Tesla (TSLA;Nasdaq) $219. What can I say. I like the company and believe it will go all the way. put me down for the 2020 Picks on this one as well.

Prezatch

Thargor wrote: »

Im wondering about investing anything in 2016 tbh, everything on my watchlist is flat or down, never seen it this bad.

I'm slightly concerned also - it seems that no matter what market you invest in be it Asia, Europe, US... if one ship goes down it drags the others with it. Diversification amongst markets doesn't seem to be as strong a card to play these days as it would have been in the past.

It is a psychological battle half the time as you watch your own holdings drop on the back of no specific news related to those holdings, just simply general market momentum.

newacc2015

Thargor wrote: »

Im wondering about investing anything in 2016 tbh, everything on my watchlist is flat or down, never seen it this bad.

Oil is a disaster and no one knows how low it will go. US producers have to keep up production to pay off their shale bank loans, while OPEC is afraid to lose market share(they also want the US oil producers to go bankrupt).

Pharma I think is a dodgy choice. A few US presidential candidates are talking about dealing with the likes of Glidead charging $100k for a Hep C treatment. Although I think Clinton has so much "donor contributions" from big companies, that she will change nothing. I think with Sanders or Trump you could see some action on it. But neither of them will likely be elected.

Thargor

British housebuilders maybe, Lots of big Tory investors and their mates in there and UK is badly in need of housing.

Wonder if China is just going to drop and trigger the circuit breakers every time they try to open now though? There could be weeks of chaos from this ahead of us.

alb

Still holding bitcoins.

Will come back with my share choices for 2016 when the arse stops dropping out of everything else.

For ever odd

Anything that does not break below last year's lows (August 24 in most case's) by month end, goes on my watchlist.

Probably be a short list.

RobertKK

I have nothing picked yet, Cellectis ALCLS, if price goes to €23 or lower. Pfizer will likely buy them out at some stage.

But with the current turmoil, knowning where the bottom is would make one some nice money, but a lot of different fears out there. For now I am just watching.

Thargor

alb wrote: »

Still holding bitcoins.

Will come back with my share choices for 2016 when the arse stops dropping out of everything else.

How did you get on with Bitcoins?

alb

Thargor wrote: »

How did you get on with Bitcoins?

Note sure what you're asking specifically but fine, I've been interested in it since 2013. I've been regularly posting on the bitcoin thread on this board, I'll probably post my recent thoughts over the weekend there. Bitcoin has rallied a bit in the last couple of days while the stock markets have been diving.

Thargor

Actually maybe Im confusing you with a guy on Propertypin, nevermind...

_Tombstone_

Anybody get in on Home Retail Group before Sainsbury offer?

Thousands of Argos jobs at risk if Sainsbury's deal is struck

Did Amazon scare Sainsbury’s into a desperate Argos bid?

Sainsbury's bid approach for Argos owner Home Retail rejected

T L

Highest expectations:
YGA Kerry Group 75.43
ATVI Activision Blizzard 36.05

Keeping an eye on:
VOW3 Volkswagon 115.05

Who the heck knows but I got in @ 3.45 in Dec, held through the recent up/down and will prob increase my holding now since I still believe...:
SUNE Sunedison 3.54

Would love to buy but @4k/share it would skew my (small) portfolio too much:
BET Betfair 3,970

Longer term holds for slow and steady growth:
MSFT Microsoft 52.90
SBUX Starbucks 57.14

Prezatch

T L wrote: »

Highest expectations:
YGA Kerry Group 75.43
ATVI Activision Blizzard 36.05

Keeping an eye on:
VOW3 Volkswagon 115.05

Who the heck knows but I got in @ 3.45 in Dec, held through the recent up/down and will prob increase my holding now since I still believe...:
SUNE Sunedison 3.54

Would love to buy but @4k/share it would skew my (small) portfolio too much:
BET Betfair 3,970

Longer term holds for slow and steady growth:
MSFT Microsoft 52.90
SBUX Starbucks 57.14

Betfair price is quoted in cents. So its really £39.70

T L

JoeyD wrote: »

Betfair price is quoted in cents. So its really £39.70

You know that feeling when you feel really silly?

Like, really really silly?

Sonnenblumen

Additional positions on:
National Grid
United Utilities Group
IFG Group
Dixons Carphonewarehouse

New (2016)

Legal & General
BAE Systems

Pending
AstraZeneca ?
Royal Dutch Shell

Grecco

Applegreen plc €5.10
These guys are making a fortune on the back of cheap Oil, oh yeah they pass on the full savings to the consumer don't they

Bitcoin -1bt/€423
The greenback rising will put pressure on developing nations with loan repayments made in dollars possible defaults looming.
The Chinese will devalue the Yuan again, Euro-land printing, the yanks will have to back down from any future interest rate hikes.
Investors increasingly using Bitcoin as a safe haven.
Expect Bitcoin to be the best performing Currency in 2016 again by a mile.


And for a decent punt which should reap rewards this year
Chaarat Gold (CHG-L) £0.06 Sitting on one of the largest and richest undeveloped Gold mines in the world. Market cap of £17 million. Definitive feasibility study due any day now. Already has a Chinese mining company China Nonferrous Int'l Mining Co. Ltd holding under 10% of the stock. Hell the Chinese banks would buy this in the morning given half a chance.
This is a potential 20X bagger.

Thargor

Grecco wrote: »

And for a decent punt which should reap rewards this year
Chaarat Gold (CHG-L) £0.06 Sitting on one of the largest and richest undeveloped Gold mines in the world. Market cap of £17 million. Definitive feasibility study due any day now. Already has a Chinese mining company China Nonferrous Int'l Mining Co. Ltd holding under 10% of the stock. Hell the Chinese banks would buy this in the morning given half a chance.
This is a potential 20X bagger.

Nice one thanks, definitely a punt but Ill be researching this on Monday, very promising looking.

Grecco

Thargor wrote: »

Nice one thanks, definitely a punt but Ill be researching this on Monday, very promising looking.

Its a punt so no mad gambles Thargor, it could well be sitting for months doing nothing so you`ll need patience too!!

Thargor

Yeah thats what I was thinking, definitely looking into it though, it looks like one of those companies on your watchlist that you dont even remember why you added then suddenly it shoots up 100% in a day

Leroy Seafood Group ASA 313NOK
Dalata Hotel Group PLC €5.13
Biomarin Pharmaceutical Inc $95.75
Ryanair Holdings PLC €14.88
Kerry Group PLC €75.73

delux

I'm going for some on the London market:

Vp plc (VP.L) 760p
888 (888.L) 183p
S&U (SUS.L) 2385p
Lookers (LOOK.L) 171p
First Derivatives (FDP.L) 1509p

Grecco

I noticed nobody is tipping any Oil companies at the moment, they are cheap, a lot of the small cap ones are going to go bust leaving a smaller pool. The Opec suppliers are hurting, shale Oil is on its last legs. Iran to start supplying again (did they ever stop? The Chinese never said no to it!). Exploration capex less than 25% of what it was in 2008.
It must be just me but I see extraordinary value to be had out their, much more tempting than some of those Pharma companies been bantered about with their share buy-backs and over inflated earnings and hidden and often very large debt to Earnings ratio.
I`m predicting $60 Oil by the year end, even if it doesn't make it their isnt much downside left in Oil
I quite fancy all of the following Oil co.s to do well, all are fully financed, each with huge reserves, future earnings potential and have a nice corner carved for themselves. They will do really well on the recovery of the price of Oil.

Chevron $82 Market cap billion $156 billion.
Genel Energy (GENL.L) £1.43 Market cap £442 million
Ithaca Energy(IAE.L) £0.24 Market cap £98 million
Bowleven (BLVN.L) £0.22 Market cap £67 million

Another major to include would be Shell, but avoid Bp.
As for the Irish Oilers they are very much a gamble rather than an investment at this stage.

Johnerr

Thargor wrote: »

Nice one thanks, definitely a punt but Ill be researching this on Monday, very promising looking.

CGH, not CHG. very important

liamjames1

Michael Kors
Crh
Malin

lucky john

liamjames1 wrote: »

Michael Kors
Crh
Malin

i like Malin. If i can find a few euro before the year is out it will be my next buy. might be a slow burner for 2016 depending on how the market look in H2 so that they can start spinning off some of their investments. A lot of directors buying big which is always a good sign.

newacc2015

Grecco wrote: »

I noticed nobody is tipping any Oil companies at the moment, they are cheap, a lot of the small cap ones are going to go bust leaving a smaller pool. The Opec suppliers are hurting, shale Oil is on its last legs. Iran to start supplying again (did they ever stop? The Chinese never said no to it!). Exploration capex less than 25% of what it was in 2008.
It must be just me but I see extraordinary value to be had out their, much more tempting than some of those Pharma companies been bantered about with their share buy-backs and over inflated earnings and hidden and often very large debt to Earnings ratio.
I`m predicting $60 Oil by the year end, even if it doesn't make it their isnt much downside left in Oil
I quite fancy all of the following Oil co.s to do well, all are fully financed, each with huge reserves, future earnings potential and have a nice corner carved for themselves. They will do really well on the recovery of the price of Oil.

Chevron $82 Market cap billion $156 billion.
Genel Energy (GENL.L) £1.43 Market cap £442 million
Ithaca Energy(IAE.L) £0.24 Market cap £98 million
Bowleven (BLVN.L) £0.22 Market cap £67 million

Another major to include would be Shell, but avoid Bp.
As for the Irish Oilers they are very much a gamble rather than an investment at this stage.

Exxon Mobil is a good one, as they have a petro-chemical business. So when the price of oil fails, the profits of their petro-chemical business producing plastic etc benefits. The profit on their petro-chemical business is pretty decent for the size of it.

All the American Banks and investment fund are looking at $20-25 dollar oil. Shale companies have to keep pumping to pay their loans and the OPEC producers dont want to lose share by cutting product. IMO there is no strong reason for oil to increase. This winter has been too mild and as result the US has never had so much oil in storage.

Even at these low prices, it still isnt stopping new entrants with little or no debts still increasing production. Look at Hilcorp Energy doubling production each year in the US.

daheff

Augeo wrote: »

Kerry Group PLC €75.73

KRZ hit 77.50 + today. Sold out my shares here.


Think it'll drop back a bit again (76.98 as I type) and present another buying opportunity

4068ac1elhodqr

Grecco wrote: »

I noticed nobody is tipping any Oil companies at the moment...

Both RBS and Standard Chartered said oil might fall to as low as $10 a barrel ($30 today), so perhaps hold on until it gets to that territory, and that $60 by EOY would be a good return, surely it can only go one way if it ever gets to around $10.

Good time to get a V6 turbo and fuel storage tanks anyway.

Bit of a drop on the FTSE this week also, £85billion negative:

daheff

daheff wrote: »

KRZ hit 77.50 + today. Sold out my shares here.


Think it'll drop back a bit again (76.98 as I type) and present another buying opportunity

Personally I keep them until they are 15% higher than bought price
I'm in no hurry.

_Tombstone_

lucky john wrote: »

Tesla (TSLA;Nasdaq) $219. What can I say. I like the company and believe it will go all the way. put me down for the 2020 Picks on this one as well.

GM?

Thargor

Sold my TSLA at 235 ages ago and am in no hurry to get back in, they seem to be stuck in this range wit not enough on the horizon to break through. would love to hear otherwise though.

field_marshall

Grecco wrote: »

I noticed nobody is tipping any Oil companies at the moment, they are cheap, a lot of the small cap ones are going to go bust leaving a smaller pool. The Opec suppliers are hurting, shale Oil is on its last legs. Iran to start supplying again (did they ever stop? The Chinese never said no to it!). Exploration capex less than 25% of what it was in 2008.
It must be just me but I see extraordinary value to be had out their, much more tempting than some of those Pharma companies been bantered about with their share buy-backs and over inflated earnings and hidden and often very large debt to Earnings ratio.
I`m predicting $60 Oil by the year end, even if it doesn't make it their isnt much downside left in Oil
I quite fancy all of the following Oil co.s to do well, all are fully financed, each with huge reserves, future earnings potential and have a nice corner carved for themselves. They will do really well on the recovery of the price of Oil.

Chevron $82 Market cap billion $156 billion.
Genel Energy (GENL.L) £1.43 Market cap £442 million
Ithaca Energy(IAE.L) £0.24 Market cap £98 million
Bowleven (BLVN.L) £0.22 Market cap £67 million

Another major to include would be Shell, but avoid Bp.
As for the Irish Oilers they are very much a gamble rather than an investment at this stage.

SHELL is only a buy if the BG deal falls apart , they paid far too much for it , shell was performing very poorly as a company long before the oil price collapse , its only selling point is its dividend

field_marshall

daheff wrote: »

KRZ hit 77.50 + today. Sold out my shares here.


Think it'll drop back a bit again (76.98 as I type) and present another buying opportunity

cannot understand how kerry and glanbia have gotten so expensive , both great companies but its not like they are google , margins are low everywhere if you exclude the sports drink business both have gotten into in the usa

was in both from 2010 to 2013 , never thought they would rise so much , they have performed every bit as strongly as ryanair this past five years

irish_major

Surmodics are in my opinion the best stock of the year to buy

Johnerr

field_marshall wrote: »

cannot understand how kerry and glanbia have gotten so expensive , both great companies but its not like they are google , margins are low everywhere if you exclude the sports drink business both have gotten into in the usa

was in both from 2010 to 2013 , never thought they would rise so much , they have performed every bit as strongly as ryanair this past five years

Google has a market Cap of 498B & Glanbia has a market cap of 5.3B so I dont see the correlation here?

Glanbia has done well through other ventures in the states & I'm sure the weak euro is also playing in their favour.

My recommendation, OSTK : $10.57 - short position.

J

Thargor

Really not looking good out there at the minute, where is the growth going to come from this year?

lucky john

Thargor wrote: »

Really not looking good out there at the minute, where is the growth going to come from this year?

The most likely place is consumers, the missing link for the last 7 years. Low interest rates, dirt cheap oil, flat inflation and improved employment numbers in the US especially must spur some kind of a reaction eventually. If it doesn't then they may tear up the text books for economist and start writing a new set.

daheff

lucky john wrote: »

The most likely place is consumers, the missing link for the last 7 years. Low interest rates, dirt cheap oil, flat inflation and improved employment numbers in the US especially must spur some kind of a reaction eventually. If it doesn't then they may tear up the text books for economist and start writing a new set.

I think you've hit the nail on the head here. ..... QE got us here...if profits dont start to rise share prices will fall.....interest rates are rising again (US anyways)....so money will start moving back to deposits instead of in the markets. If consumer spending doesnt shore up company profits then theres no reason for (most) share prices to stay as bouyant as they have been.


I still see a flat market yoy this year...but big volatile peaks/troughs during the year.....its just a case of when to buy /when to sell