Gameweek 14 Transfer Thread.

8-10

ShaneU wrote: »

Yes that's right, everyone transfer Sanchez out....three very tough fixtures coming up, you know it makes sense.

Everybody is saying Sanchez -> Ozil....who do you think he plays for?

greedygoblin

Calvin Leong wrote: »

Yup, that's why I've been thinking of getting rid of Bertrand..and assists don't seem likely with Pelle doing sweet **** all. Haven't even given any Chelsea players a thought given their ****e run of form. How about Everton? They've also got nice fixtures as well as Spurs.

My current back line is:
Myhill/McCarthy
Bertrand/Bellerin/Moreno/Soaure/Simpson

Bertrand certainly looks like the weakest link there. Keep an eye on Bellerin too. If Coquelin is out, Arsenals clean sheets may be tougher to find. I haven't considered Everton defenders since last season. A bit too leaky for my liking. Though with their fixtures they might be worth a punt.

Dubliner28

Current team is

Schmeichel (Myhill)
Williams Kolorov Dann (Subs Cédric/Francis)
Barkley Sanchez Ozil KDB Mahrez
Vardy Lukaku (Wilson)

Tempted to take hit to bring in Augero. Is it worth it, with his favourable home fixture.

Or do i just to Wilson to Kane and offload KDB.

I need to offload some of my defenders too. Kolorov and Williams and tempted to take out under performing KDB for Cayabe.

Head fried.

SlickRic

You still have Wilson? Ouch.

Colking

Took a big gamble on Sat Night, time will tell if if was a stupid one or not.


de Gea McCarthy
Bertrand Dawson Francis Coleman Bellerín
Drinkwater Özil Mahrez Barkley Coutinho
Kane Agüero Lukaku

Made the following transfers for -8:

Vardy --> Agüero
Sanchez --> Coutinho
KDB --> Barkley

Current ITB: 2.5m

I've had Sanchez and KDB from the start and had a lot of value built up in them. They were getting to the point where I wouldn't be able to drop them due to injury etc. from a financial point of view.

When I saw an opportunity where both were falling in value and under performing I took it.(I know how good Arsenals upcoming are, hopefully Özil will be enough of an insurance policy)

Hopefully Barkley and Coutinho will continue to rise in price and close the gap for me financially.

If things go well it will set me up to afford a team of serious heavy hitters.
If things go badly, this will probably be a pivotal point where I threw the season away.

Fingers and toes crossed :pac:

lougal88

Coutinho/Sanchez or KdB/Ozil?

patmac

Done KDB/Pelle to Barkley/Aguero tempted by Smalling/Ayoze to Simpson/Lukaku for -8 but might wait another week.

greedygoblin

lougal88 wrote: »

Coutinho/Sanchez or KdB/Ozil?

Coutinho/Sanchez for me but I'd wait to see the extent of Coutinho's injury first.

Dubliner28

SlickRic wrote: »

You still have Wilson? Ouch.

Yep, thankfully my strong midfield has eased the pain of my 14man squad

greedygoblin

iroced wrote: »

About your moves, the only one I'm not comfortable with is Vardy -> Kane. But I totally get why you made the move. I presume you're onto Aguero Kane Lukaku upfront? So Vardy can be eased back in, if needed, quite easily.

As for me, hopefully Agüero doesn't rise before Wednesday such that the missed price change deadline was at least not a complete waste.

I'm not sure who said it but Vardy's returns can't be sustainable in the medium to long term. He might very well break RvNs record against Man Utd the next day but after that I can't see him keeping it going.

Given there are so many in-form striking options allied with Agueros high price, he might be that bit slower rising.

NabyLadistheman

iroced wrote: »

Here's my full team.

Myhill Hennessey
Smalling Bellerin Kolarov Bertrand Souaré
Sanchez KDB Mahrez Payet Wanyama
Kane Vardy Pellè

What do you guys think? Isn't it one of the "best" way to kill 2 birds with 1 single stone? Getting Agüero back before it makes things more complicated cash-wise and sorting out my over-expensive premium defense ? In addition, I keep both Sanchez & KDB who I still believe have an explosive FPL potential and it gives me back a bit of flexibility.

Now, of course, the huge con is CL football is to come. But with Pellè dropping tonight and Agüero's rising before his game in Torino (and maybe even Payet dropping in the meantime) I'd lose the flexibility this triple move would give me back.

Alot of similarities between your team and mine. On Sat I made the following changes for a -4.

Pelle----> Aguero
Smalling ---> Rojo
Kompany ----> Simpson

---

Gomez

---

Bellerin -- Rojo-- Souare

KDB -- Mahrez -- Sanchez -- Cabaye

---

Kane -- Aguero -- Lukaku

Happy enough for now. KDB will be get the road once Silva is fit

Benimar

In GW8 Player A scored 16 points at home to a 'Top 4' team, since then he has one goal and no assists.

In GW8 Player B scored 14 points away to a 'Top 4' team, since then he has one goal and no assists.

Player A is Alexis Sanchez and Player B is BUIB!! I can't understand the 'love' for keeping Sanchez.

In the last 5 GWs Sanchez has been outscored by Ozil by 24 points.

Sanchez to Ozil is a logical move and not just to free up Aguero cash.

Colking

Benimar wrote: »

In GW8 Player A scored 16 points at home to a 'Top 4' team, since then he has one goal and no assists.

In GW8 Player B scored 14 points away to a 'Top 4' team, since then he has one goal and no assists.

Player A is Alexis Sanchez and Player B is BUIB!! I can't understand the 'love' for keeping Sanchez.

In the last 5 GWs Sanchez has been outscored by Ozil by 24 points.

Sanchez to Ozil is a logical move and not just to free up Aguero cash.

Very true. I think the big difference in this case though is fear.

I have let Sanchez go (have Ozil) and I feel fear. He is an explosive player and this is what sets him apart from the likes of BUIB et al.

Ozil is a solid choice and will continue to chip in with assists and perhaps an occasional goal. Sanchez on any given week is capable of a hat trick though.

I have my fingers crossed that he doesn't explode anytime soon.

Iused2likebusts

Benimar wrote: »

In GW8 Player A scored 16 points at home to a 'Top 4' team, since then he has one goal and no assists.

In GW8 Player B scored 14 points away to a 'Top 4' team, since then he has one goal and no assists.

Player A is Alexis Sanchez and Player B is BUIB!! I can't understand the 'love' for keeping Sanchez.

In the last 5 GWs Sanchez has been outscored by Ozil by 24 points.

Sanchez to Ozil is a logical move and not just to free up Aguero cash.

Sanchez has a great goalscoring record throughout his career including at arsenal. Ozil has a great assist record. The fact that goals 5 pts assists 3 pts always brings me to Sanchez. Whats happened in the last 5 favours Ozil but I'd prefer to look at what should happen in the future based on their careers. Ideally I'd have both and hope to from.next week.

OneColdHand

I think I'm going to go with Ozil + Sanchez over the next 3 GWs. They have lovely fixtures.

MaxPower89

Made 2 free transfers while hammered on Saturday night, Sanchez and Pelle out for Kun and Barkley. Not hugely regretting it, but it was silly none the less. Barkley has great fixtures, but it was a little early for Kun perhaps. Still have Ozil as Arsenal cover, but having 20 odd million outlayed on Ozil and Sanchez when they aren't firing on all cylinders seemed like a bit of a waste.

Anyone thinking about Vardy out? Coming into a very long run of tough games, surely the Leicester bubble will burst soon enough.

FHFC

Benimar wrote: »

In GW8 Player A scored 16 points at home to a 'Top 4' team, since then he has one goal and no assists.

In GW8 Player B scored 14 points away to a 'Top 4' team, since then he has one goal and no assists.

Player A is Alexis Sanchez and Player B is BUIB!! I can't understand the 'love' for keeping Sanchez.

In the last 5 GWs Sanchez has been outscored by Ozil by 24 points.

Sanchez to Ozil is a logical move and not just to free up Aguero cash.

"Regression to the mean"

BUIB had a hot run up to GW8, but his poor returns since are closer to his 'mean' over the last two seasons. Also he had his blank run over his 'gift' run of fixtures.

As Busts said, Sanchez record shows that his recent returns are well below his 'mean' despite promising performances. Could have had a goal and an assist on Sat. About to enter a great 3 fixture run.

Regression to the mean is my favourite Fantasy Footie principle this season.

Same reason Vardy simply cannot keep scoring every game. Same reason Aguero had to explode like he did v Newcastle.

Ziegler1988

FHFC wrote: »

Same reason Vardy simply cannot keep scoring every game. Same reason Aguero had to explode like he did v Newcastle.

Vardy's stats back up his goals though and he's tracking his shot accuracy from last season. Even if he blanks, I expect more double digits in other matches

Mr.Prodston

FHFC wrote: »

"Regression to the mean"

BUIB had a hot run up to GW8, but his poor returns since are closer to his 'mean' over the last two seasons. Also he had his blank run over his 'gift' run of fixtures.

As Busts said, Sanchez record shows that his recent returns are well below his 'mean' despite promising performances. Could have had a goal and an assist on Sat. About to enter a great 3 fixture run.

Regression to the mean is my favourite Fantasy Footie principle this season.

Same reason Vardy simply cannot keep scoring every game. Same reason Aguero had to explode like he did v Newcastle.

Yaya Toure....

NapoleonInRags

Did Benteke and Sanchez to Aguero and Firmino.

Firmino is a bit of a gamble but looks in great form and has a serious differential upside!

FHFC

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

Vardy's stats back up his goals though and he's tracking his shot accuracy from last season. Even if he blanks, I expect more double digits in other matches

Yeah but his conversion rate must be up surely? Regression to the mean is about more than underlying stats as i understand/apply it. Its about whether the level of (good or bad) performance is likely to continue in comparison to the players 'normal' output, assuming no major variables have changed. Vardy has been very good for the past year or so, and has thrived under Ranieri so its not that uncharacteristic a level if performance granted, but the goal per game output is Suarez/Ronaldo/Messi rates and he's just not going to get 35 or 40 league goals. Surely!?!

Mr.Prodston wrote: »

Yaya Toure....

There are freak exceptions to every rule. However you could say Yaya in 2014 and 2015 has been strong proof of inevitable regression to the mean!

Benimar

FHFC wrote: »

"Regression to the mean"

BUIB had a hot run up to GW8, but his poor returns since are closer to his 'mean' over the last two seasons. Also he had his blank run over his 'gift' run of fixtures.

As Busts said, Sanchez record shows that his recent returns are well below his 'mean' despite promising performances. Could have had a goal and an assist on Sat. About to enter a great 3 fixture run.

Regression to the mean is my favourite Fantasy Footie principle this season.

Same reason Vardy simply cannot keep scoring every game. Same reason Aguero had to explode like he did v Newcastle.

I agree he will 'explode' at some stage, but is it worth tying up 11m+ for the odd explosion? Dating back to last season his last 26 scores were:

2,3,3,8,2,2,13,3,3,15,2,5,2,1,5,3,3,3,2,20,16,10,2,3,2,2

Thats 5 scores of 10 or above in 26 weeks.
Thats 18 weeks with NO attacking return.
Average weekly score 5.19 points over 2/3rds of a season.

IMO, unless you are lucky enough to have him for the 'explosion' he's too expensive for the returns he generates.

FHFC

Benimar wrote: »

I agree he will 'explode' at some stage, but is it worth tying up 11m+ for the odd explosion? Dating back to last season his last 26 scores were:

2,3,3,8,2,2,13,3,3,15,2,5,2,1,5,3,3,3,2,20,16,10,2,3,2,2

Thats 5 scores of 10 or above in 26 weeks.
Thats 18 weeks with NO attacking return.
Average weekly score 5.19 points over 2/3rds of a season.

IMO, unless you are lucky enough to have him for the 'explosion' he's too expensive for the returns he generates.

All fair enough. But fancy named theories aside, he plays Norwich, Sunderland and Villa next three and according to your scores and the theory of regression to mean hes 'due' one of them explosions!

I won't be selling just yet!

PARlance

I'm not selling Sanchez and I was championing the fact that he's not great value a while back. I still think that but the next 3 fixtures are just too good.

iamanengine

Done KDB and Bertrand -> Barkley and Woolscheid for a -4.
Current forward line is Lukaku, Vardy, Ighalo.

Is it worth a -8 to get Aguero in for Ighalo or should I wait til next week? I know Aguero could score well against Southampton but Ighalo could easily pick up points against Villa.

In fact, Ighalo has Villa, Norwich and Sunderland coming up whereas Vardy has United, Swansea, Chelsea...oh decisions

Iused2likebusts

Benimar wrote: »

I agree he will 'explode' at some stage, but is it worth tying up 11m+ for the odd explosion? Dating back to last season his last 26 scores were:

2,3,3,8,2,2,13,3,3,15,2,5,2,1,5,3,3,3,2,20,16,10,2,3,2,2

Thats 5 scores of 10 or above in 26 weeks.
Thats 18 weeks with NO attacking return.
Average weekly score 5.19 points over 2/3rds of a season.

IMO, unless you are lucky enough to have him for the 'explosion' he's too expensive for the returns he generates.

The worst time to sell him surely is after 4 consecutive blanks and with the 3 fixtures he has coming up. There was lots of talk about people selling him just before he got 46 pts in 3 GWs. Barring injury I think he will be the highest scoring mid whether he is worth the money is another argument. I also prefer him playing with Walcott rather than giroud as I think Walcott frees up space for him. I won't be selling him until arsenal have a good few players back fit and it looks like he may get a rest.

Ziegler1988

FHFC wrote: »

Yeah but his conversion rate must be up surely? Regression to the mean is about more than underlying stats as i understand/apply it. Its about whether the level of (good or bad) performance is likely to continue in comparison to the players 'normal' output, assuming no major variables have changed. Vardy has been very good for the past year or so, and has thrived under Ranieri so its not that uncharacteristic a level if performance granted, but the goal per game output is Suarez/Ronaldo/Messi rates and he's just not going to get 35 or 40 league goals. Surely!?!

Yup, up from 10.4% last season to 24.1% so far this. Pfft, Vardy for the European Golden boot :pac:

Cartman78

NapoleonInRags wrote: »

Did Benteke and Sanchez to Aguero and Firmino.

Firmino is a bit of a gamble but looks in great form and has a serious differential upside!

Have been tempted by Firmino as well, mainly because I'm a Liverpool fan but also because he's a midfielder playing as a striker and seems to be finally finding his feet after a slow start.

Might switch him for Hoolahan who has been gathering dust on my bench for weeks and switch to a 3-5-2 for next week. Have Pelle-Vardy-Kone so will be ditching the big fella and/or trading him for Aguero depending on budget after Firmino-Hoolahan switch (at work so can't check the value of those two at the minute )

stiffler123

iamanengine wrote: »

Done KDB and Bertrand -> Barkley and Woolscheid for a -4.
Current forward line is Lukaku, Vardy, Ighalo.

Is it worth a -8 to get Aguero in for Ighalo or should I wait til next week? I know Aguero could score well against Southampton but Ighalo could easily pick up points against Villa.

In fact, Ighalo has Villa, Norwich and Sunderland coming up whereas Vardy has United, Swansea, Chelsea...oh decisions

I'm in the same boat. Can't justify selling Ighalo before Villa so Kun will have to wait.

OneColdHand

stiffler123 wrote: »

I'm in the same boat. Can't justify selling Ighalo before Villa so will Kun will have to wait.

I'm considering using the AOA chip this week. Have a strong front 8, and if I go for Aguero I'll be switching one of my mids for cheapie, so may not have a strong front 8 for long.

Only thing is my defenders have decent fixtures:
Moreno - Swa (H)
Sagna - Sou (a)
Bellerin - Nor (a)