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6th Annual White Christmas Thread
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04-11-2015 6:12pm#1That time of year again folks. Usually start this thread about now. One UK website actually starts on 1 September every year so no need to feel bad about starting in early November.
At this range the only forecast guidance (putting it at its high point!) available is the CFS. Below I have pasted its pressure and 850 uppers temp charts for noon on the big day.
Nothing of huge note there (certainly no snow) but there is, fair to say, a while to go so changes could just about occur!
For the record there are Xmas weather updates on both TWO and Netweather but since for now they are simply parroting what the CFS says I won't reference their thoughts for now. I will do nearer the big day when their updates get more frequent and technical.
Ciao for now.....
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Second Update.....
CFS showing December a little cooler than recently but still little of note. A bit of a cold incursion around 11/12 December and, more interestingly, around Stephen's day. Nothing of note though - no snow obvious.
The big day itself is rainy with westerly winds, temps around 9c. See below charts for the big day and, given its proximity, for the minor colder incursion afterwards.
Xmas day...
Stephen's night....
Just as a final observation, the CFS shows it being consistently cool (cold at times) from around 10th Jan to mid Feb with 850 hpa uppers at -2 or below at virtually all times and plenty of "pink" all over much of Europe. I attach a typical enough chart from the period....
Plenty of interest to come accordingly.....0 -
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I'll take 5 inches of week old snow on the ground and along the top of the hedge for me Christmas day photo's rather than actually falling snow on the day but no accumulation. Obviously both is perfect but if I had to choose one or t'other....
Hope we get some snow this year so I can refresh my Xmas Snow photo collection. The council changed the streetlamps to lovely white light directed LED fittings earlier this year which should make for nicer photo's than my current Orange jobbies
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Things are generally trending better than they were for a (admittedly still very long odds) White Christmas this year.
With just 900 hrs to go (I know - the anticipation is palpable), the best guidance from the CFS shows a mobile pattern through December with alternating spells of relatively mild and relatively cold weather. For the big day itself the CFS snow accumulation charts are currently showing some of the UK hitting the jackpot - mind you the uppers don't seem to support this at all. See below.
and
Meanwhile one reputable UK weather site (TWO) which runs a White Christmas forecast has released a very upbeat update today, the salient bit of which is "...an increased chance of a White Christmas in both the north and south. The reasons for this are:
1) Medium range computer models are showing the possibility of pressure rising to the north and west of the UK at times during the second half of November. This could set the pattern for the early part of the winter and would lead to a higher than average chance of cold snaps or spells.
2) Developments through November to date bear some similarities to previous years which have brought colder than average winters.
At this stage it remains far too early to be confident about the possibilities. Other factors such as the strong El Nino and westerly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) favour a mild start to the winter.
The temperature anomaly charts possibly indicate colder snaps being more likely to come from the north west and north rather than east. This would mean snow is more probable in the northern half of the UK and particularly over high ground...."
Accordingly some grounds for hope all round (heck its a week when we comfortably qualified for Euro 2016 with Glen Whelan as captain so you kind of think anything could happen right now....)0 -
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Alas the CFS is not so great 3 days on - current indications are for a mild Christmas period, see below from the CFS:-
Out of completeness Netweather in the UK's current read is "...this week, the Winter forecast was issued, and following on from the theme of all of the Christmas forecast updates so far, an often unsettled, even stormy December is on the cards.
As we near the end of the month though, the expectation in the winter outlook is for increasingly colder weather to play more of a role across the north of the country at least though..
Meanwhile TWO offer "..a reduced change of a White Christmas in both the north and south of the UK. The reasons for this are:
1) Medium range computer models offer support for a +NAO pattern during the middle part of December and in the run up to Christmas. This would produce a broadly westerly flow across the UK bringing average to mild conditions and only brief colder snaps.
2) Other factors such as the strong El Nino and the westerly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) continue to favour a mild start to the winter.
At this stage it remains too early to be confident about the outcome but a green Christmas for most of the UK is strongly favoured. As is usually the case, snow is most likely over high ground in the north...."
Still a good bit away from the major models being in range, and god knows they can be inaccurate at even 10 days, so nothing remotely written in stone yet.0 -
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Well 11 days out and the GFS still wants to give some of us a white Christmas - that's not so bad in this otherwise awful winter. In fact the gfs precipitation charts (which are notoriously inaccurate I should add) have all of us getting in on the act by early morning on Stephen's day. See below....
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In fact, to this very untrained eye there is decent enough agreement between the gfs and ecm at day 10. Maybe gfs is on to something? Charts are below. I note MTC didn't rule out a brief Christmas day cold interlude in a post yesterday either......
GFS...
ECM...
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Those large scale charts can be a little but deceiving though. A closer look at the 288 chart show less appealing picture.
35% risk of rain falling as snow above 600m.
Not that those kind of details matter at that kind of FI range though! :P0 -
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