November 2015 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

That is correct, marginal changes each day but after rounding the IMT stays on 9.0 from a daily of 9.7 yesterday, went from 8.98 to 9.02 as a result. Today may or may not push it back to 9.1, then I would estimate 9.0, 8.8, 8.9 and finish on 8.9 even if last day is 10 or 11.

Schadenfreudia

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

That is correct, marginal changes each day but after rounding the IMT stays on 9.0 from a daily of 9.7 yesterday, went from 8.98 to 9.02 as a result. Today may or may not push it back to 9.1, then I would estimate 9.0, 8.8, 8.9 and finish on 8.9 even if last day is 10 or 11.

A real white-knuckle ride! :eek:

Min here today 10C and max over 13C - that's giving the outlook more upside I'd imagine?

M.T. Cranium

This late in the month, it's about like this -- every day that goes 3 deg above or below the running mean changes the mean by 0.1. Fractions round off so at this point any day that goes 1.5 above will round up to 9.1, next day you would need more than 3 below that to round down since you have to go all the way through the interval. Etc. Figure it will be 8.9 C plus or minus 0.1 on today's guidance. Not the warmest November in modern times in Ireland, I was informed that IMT for Nov 2011 was close to 10 C and probably 1994 would have been also. Likely top 5% of the past two centuries though.

M.T. Cranium

IMT 9.1 (from 9.08) after 26 days.

M.T. Cranium

IMT 9.0 after 27 days (9.00 if you're looking for greater precision).

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT at 8.9 C (fourth week 7.1 C).

PRC at 146% of normal (fourth week 93%).

SUN 82% (fourth week 71%).

December and winter forecast contest threads are open for your entries.

M.T. Cranium

Final scoring for November 2015

FORECASTER _________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _ snow ____ TOTALS

confirmed values ______ 8.8_19.5_--2.7_152_80__20 Nov

Schadenfreudia ________25 _ 16 _ 17 _ 13*_ 10 ___ 09 _____ 90
Dacogawa ____________19 _ 18 _ 18 _ 11*_ 08 ___ 06 _____ 80
Jpmarn ______________ 24 _ 14 _ 12 _ 12*_ 09 ___ 09 _____ 80
Sunflower3 ___________ 23 _ 16 _ 14 _ 09*_ 08 ___ 08 _____ 78
omicron ______________22 _ 15 _ 17 _ 08*_ 08 ___ 07 _____ 77
Tae laidir _____________17 _ 20 _ 17 _ 10*_ 07 ___ 04 _____ 75
MrSkinner ____________ 15 _ 20 _ 15 _ 10*_ 08 ___ 02 _____ 70

Con Sensus ___________ 17 _ 16 _ 17 _ 06*_ 08 ___ 06 _____ 70

M.T. Cranium _________ 15 _ 07 _ 18 _ 10*_ 10 ___ 08 _____ 68
sryanbruen ___________ 18 _ 15 _ 14 _ 02*_ 10 ___ 07 _____ 66
Joe Public ____________ 16 _ 08 _ 08 _ 14*_ 10 ___ 10 _____ 66
Rameire _____________ 10 _ 20 _ 19 _ 09*_ 03 ___ 05 _____ 66
Lumi ________________ 17 _ 16 _ 12 _ 06*_ 09 ___ 05 _____ 65
John mac ____________ 08 _ 16 _ 15 _ 08*_ 07 ___ 10 _____ 64
200motels ____________16 _ 08 _ 18 _ 11*_ 08 ___ 02 _____ 63
JD __________________ 12 _ 20 _ 08 _ 07*_ 07 ___ 09 _____ 63
lostinAshford __________20 _ 12 _ 14 _ 06*_ 08 ___ 01 _____ 61
dasa29 ______________ 17 _ 06 _ 17 _ 04*_ 09 ___ 08 _____ 61
pauldry ______________ 19 _ 15 _ 10 _ 03*_ 09 ___ 02 _____ 58
kindred spirit __________17 _ 16 _ 10 _ 06*_ 06 ___ 01 _____ 56
mickger844posts _______16 _ 08 _ 18 _ 01*_ 07 ___ 05 _____ 55
Bsal _________________12 _ 15 _ 07 _ 07*_ 07 ___ 06 _____ 54
DOCARCH ____________ 13 _ 11 _ 11 _ 02*_ 04 ___ 10 _____ 51
Rikand _______________17 _ 16 _ 07 _ 03*_ 02 ___ 04 _____ 49

Norma L _____________ 10 _ 10 _ 07 _ 04*_ 06 ___ 10 _____ 47

NMB ________________ 07 _ 05 _ 16 _ 01*_ 08 ___ 03 _____ 40

__________________________________________________

* PRC was scored with minimum progression rule although many scores would have been almost that high, so at this point no change expected in these scores as long as PRC is 141% or higher (estimating 150).

As I mentioned earlier, the MAX is scored rather leniently to minimize the difference between early guesses and those who estimated after the fact on the 1st when a max of 19.5 (or perhaps higher?) was set. If it does go higher I will stick with these scores anyway because it would be from a station not normally used in our contest results. Also, I penalized one entrant 5 pts from 20 as he requested for a late revision and that boosted his score slightly from what he was going to get in that category although not much IIRC.

The scores are generally quite high and I am just taking a look back to the annual stats after October, on these numbers subject to slight revision, the top scores in the main contest race (best 9 of 11) will be:

Jpmarn ______ 621
MTCranium ___ 612

Con Sensus ___ 609

MrSkinner_____606
Lumi ________ 601
dasa29 ______ 594
sunflower3 ___ 592
Schadenfreudia 589
Rameire _____ 587
Tae laidir _____586
DOCARCH ____ 579
Rikand _______579
dacogawa ____ 576
Bsal _________ 575

and I can't imagine that list changing very much on any revisions because they will likely move together anyway.

Okay then, watch for a confirmation on these scores and the annual update, and four seasons scores too.

M.T. Cranium

Confirming the IMT was 8.8 C and the PRC 152% of normal which triggers the minimum progression scoring as shown in the table. My estimate for the final SUN percentage is now 78%, it may not affect the scoring at all. Will get that sorted from the MS expected to appear tomorrow.

M.T. Cranium

Updated annual 2015 scoring January to November



FORECASTER ________ Jan_ Feb_Mar_ Apr_ May_Jun_ Jul_ Aug_Sep_Oct _Nov ____ 2015 Total (rank)
_________________________________________________________________________ best 9/11 (rank)

Jpmarn ______________64 _ 57 _ 71 _ 78 _ 82 _ 67 _ 44 _ 48 _ 52 _ 70 _ 80 __ 713 (1) ____ 621 (1)
M.T. Cranium _________68 _ 17 _ 71 _ 86 _ 62 _ 70 _ 46 _ 61 _ 59 _ 67 _ 68 __ 675 (6) ____ 612 (2)

Con Sensus __________ 70 _ 71 _ 63 _ 65 _ 58 _ 62 _ 55 _ 69 _ 60 _ 79 _ 70 __ 722 (1) ____ 609 (3)


MrSkinner ____________--- _ 71 _ 85 _ 54 _ 47 _ 59 _ 61 _ 78 _ 57 _ 71 _ 70 __ 653 (13) ___ 606 (3)
Lumi ________________68 _ 72 _ 59 _ 66 _ 58 _ 61 _ 53 _ 78 _ 58 _ 74 _ 65 __ 712 (2) ____ 601 (4)
dasa29 ______________ 47 _ 69 _ 67 _ 45 _ 57 _ 57 _ 70 _ 76 _ 64 _ 73 _ 61 __ 686 (4) ____ 594 (5)

sunflower3 ___________ 69 _ 61 _ 59 _ 44 _ 66 _ 57 _ 54 _ 72 _ 63 _ 67 _ 78 __ 690 (3) ____ 592 (6)
Schadenfreudia ________61 _ 67 _ 53 _ 60 _ 58 _ 36 _ 38 _ 75 _ 52 _ 73 _ 90 __ 663 (10) ___ 589 (7)
rameire _____________ 55 _ 40 _ 46 _ 58 _ 61 _ 53 _ 56 _ 79 _ 79 _ 80 _ 66 __ 673 (7t) ____ 587 (8)
Tae laidir ____________ 33 _ 60 _ 46 _ 68 _ 68 _ 56 _ 74 _ 60 _ 61 _ 64 _ 75 __ 665 (9) ____ 586 (9)
DOCARCH ____________75 _ 79 _ 40 _ 64 _ 36 _ 65 _ 42 _ 52 _ 68 _ 83 _ 51 __ 655 (12) ___ 583 (10)

Rikand ______________ 84 _ 59 _ 48 _ 73 _ 54 _ 66 _ 51 _ 57 _ 57 _ 78 _ 49 __ 676 (5) ____ 579 (11)

Norma L (*) __________ 62 _ 70 _ 66 _ 73 _ 44 _ 52 _ 66 _ 55 _ 62 _ 69 _ 47 __ 666 (9) ____ 578 (12)

mickger844posts ______ 50 _ 90 _ 53 _ 61 _ 45 _ 57 _ 28 _ 67 _ 69 _ 75 _ 55 __ 650 (14t) ___ 577 (12)
dacogawa ____________48 _ 62 _ 63 _ 77 _ 58 _ --- _ 62 _ 43 _ 46 _ 80 _ 80 __ 619 (19t) ___ 576 (13)
Bsal ________________ 77 _ 55 _ 68 _ 50 _ 57 _ 71 _ 48 _ 55 _ 61 _ 77 _ 54 __ 673 (7t) ____ 575 (14)
lostinashford _________ 56 _ --- _ 53 _ 64 _ 74 _ 62 _ 55 _ 52 _ 66 _ 76 _ 61 __ 619 (19t) ___ 567 (15)

jd __________________ 72 _ 61 _ 68 _ 62 _ 31 _ 50 _ 53 _ 59 _ 44 _ 74 _ 63 __ 637 (16) ___ 562 (16)
John mac ____________ 73 _ 55 _ 58 _ 60 _ 50 _ 50 _ 69 _ 55 _ 52 _ 75 _ 64 __ 661 (11) ___ 561 (17)
Pauldry ______________ 51 _ 48 _ 70 _ 51 _ 67 _ 61 _ 58 _ 60 _ 67 _ 59 _ 58 __ 650 (14t) ___ 551 (18)
Joe Public ____________ 69 _ 42 _ 64 _ 72 _ 39 _ 54 _ 69 _ 44 _ 43 _ 71 _ 66 __ 633 (17) ___ 552 (19)
omicron ______________41 _ 77 _ 40 _ 67 _ 49 _ 36 _ 42 _ 55 _ 68 _ 71 _ 77 __ 623 (18) ___ 547 (20)

Harps _______________ 69 _ 57 _ 34 _ 70 _ 45 _ 70 _ 45 _ 61 _ 57 _ 69 _ --- __ 577 (22) ___ 543 (21)
kindredspirit __________ 63 _ 57 _ 52 _ 59 _ 47 _ 60 _ 61 _ 56 _ --- _ 70 _ 56 __ 581 (21) ___ 534 (22)

Norma L (no *) ________ 53 _ 70 _ 56 _ 65 _ 37 _ 41 _ 29 _ 55 _ 69 _ 51 _ 38 __ 564 (23) ___ 498 (23)

200motels ____________30 _ --- _ 59 _ 65 _ 58 _ 40 _ 35 _ 49 _ 71 _ 56 _ 63 __ 526 (23) ___ 496 (23)
waterways ____________--- _ 70 _ 58 _ 58 _ 40 _ 53 _ 32 _ 63 _ 52 _ 38 _ --- __ 464 (24) ___ 464 (24)

see August table for past entrants with fewer scores, or October and November tables for new entrants each month.

Norma L scored both with "mercy rule" adjustments (higher scores) and for an absolute comparison, without them (this only tells you what normal values would score without contest adjustments). Your comparison to normal is to the higher of the two scores.
__________________________________________________________

High monthly scores are shown in bold type above.

M.T. Cranium

Confirmed End of Year Four Seasons Award Standings


First of all, the total scores for autumn (Sep, Oct, Nov) with points awarded.

Rameire ____________ 225 ___ 10 pts
omicron ____________ 216 ____ 7 pts
Schadenfreudia ______ 215 ____ 6 pts

Con Sensus _________ 209 ____ 5 pts

sunflower3 __________208 ____ 5 pts
dacogawa __________ 206 ____ 4 pts
lostinashford ________ 203 ____ 3 pts
Jpmarn ____________ 202 ____ 2 pts
DOCARCH __________ 202 ____ 2 pts
Tae laidir ___________200 ____ 1 pt
mickger844posts _____199 ____ 1 pt

---

missed the cut
MrSkinner __________ 198
dasa29 ____________ 198
Lumi ______________ 197
M.T.Cranium ________ 194
Bsal _______________ 193

(and all lower scores)

... and the above feed into the table below to give the final standings for the

Four Seasons Award 2014-15.


FORECASTER __________ winter __ spring __ summer __ autumn ___ TOTAL POINTS

Con Sensus ______________ 6 ____ 3 ____ 4 ____ 5 _______ 18

Rameire _________________0 ____ 0 ____ 5 ____ 10 _______15
Jpmarn _________________ 0 ____10 ____ 0 ____ 2 ________12
dacogawa _______________ 1 ____ 6 ____ 0 _____4 _______ 11
Rikand _________________ 10 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _______ 11
MrSkinner _______________ 0 ____ 3 ____ 7 ____ 0 _______ 10
dasa29 _________________ 0 _____0 ____10 ____0 _______ 10
sunflower3 ______________ 1 ____ 0 _____4 ____ 5 _______ 10
DOCARCH _______________ 7 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _______ 9
Lostinashford ____________ 0 ____ 5 _____0 ____ 4 ________9
M.T. Cranium _____________0 ____ 7 ____ 1 ____ 0 ________8
Tae laidir ________________0 ____ 1 _____6 ____ 1 ________8
omicron _________________1 ____ 0 _____0 ____ 7 ________8
Schadenfreudia ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 6 _______ 6
jd ______________________6 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ________ 6
Harps ___________________5 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ________ 6
Pauldry _________________ 0 ____ 4 _____2 ____ 0 ________ 6
kindredspirit _____________ 4 ____ 0 _____1 ____ 0 ________ 5
Lumi ___________________ 0 ____ 2 _____3 ____ 0 ________ 5
mickger844posts__________ 4 ____ 0 _____0 ____ 1 ________ 5
Bsal ____________________2 ____ 1 _____0 ____ 0 ________ 3
Joe Public _______________ 0 ____ 1 _____0 ____ 0 ________ 1
200motels _______________0 ____ 1 _____0 ____ 0 ________ 1
__________________________________________________

So it's congratulations RAMEIRE for winning the Four Seasons Award with a sprint to the finish based on improving scores since May. Jpmarn appears to have second place in this contest and dacogawa is tied with Rikand for third.

As expected, Con Sensus was the most consistent scorer of us all.

M.T. Cranium

Note, an error was discovered in the annual standings. The 9/11 score for DOCARCH should read 579 (t10). This means that for Rikand, whose score is correct, the ranking is changed to (t10).

I have gone over all scores and found no other errors in addition.