November 2015 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT for November, the 1981-2010 average was 7.3 C (up from 7.0 in 1971-2000 and 6.6 in 1961-1990).

2. Predict the maximum temperature for November at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the minimum temperature for November at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the rainfall as percentage of normal values, as reported for eleven met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

5. Predict the sunshine as percentage of normal values, as reported for the usual 6 met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

6. Bonus question

Predict the date of the first snow report on official met.ie stations, the usual false automated reports will be discarded, we'll look for some kind of verification to declare the first snowfall (on the hourly reports). no member reports, peaks covered with snow, pictures from Lapland, etc. The date must be in the range 1 Nov to 31 Dec, yes all of Dec in play, bonus will be settled when the snow happens. But if no snow at all by end of 2015 is your call, predict 31 Dec. If there happens to be snow between time of posting and the start of November, the contest will be verified on the next snowfall that occurs. 1-2 Nov look to be too mild for a spoiler snowfall, if one were to happen, it would be luck of the draw and forecasts would be verified as posted and edited under the rules. (no need for location or any other info)

The deadline for entries will be the usual one, 0300h Monday 2 November, with 5 point penalties per half day after that.

Good luck ... template below (add digits if you want, delete unwanted month)

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN __ PRC __ SUN ___ first snow date

Your name __________ x.x __ xx.x __ -x.x __ xxx __ xxx ____ xx NOV.DEC

or just copy mine and edit to suit you ...

M.T. Cranium ________ 9.8 __ 16.7 __ -2.5 __ 120 __ 080 ___ 07 Dec

sryanbruen

sryanbruen __________ 8.1c __ 15.8c __ -2.1c __ 83% __ 81% ____ 9 Dec

pauldry

pauldry__________ 8.2c __ 16.7c __ -3.7c __ 89% __ 89% ____ 25 Dec

dasa29

dasa29 ________ 8.0c __ 15.5c __ -3.0c __ 100% __ 085% ___ 04 Dec

Bsal

Bsal _________ 7.5 _ 16.1 _ -4.0 __ 106 __ 95 ___ 11 Dec

200motels

200motels 9.7 __ 16.9 __ -2.9 __ 122 __ 72 ___ 25 Dec

NMB

NMB__________ 7.1c __ 14.7c __ -3.1c __ 81% __ 90% ____ 24 Dec

lostinashford

lostinAshford ________ 9.3 __ 17.3 __ -2.1 __ 105 __ 089 ___ 31 Dec

John mac

John mac ________ 7.1 __ 18.9 __ -3.2 __ 110 __ 095 ___ 28 Nov

rameire

Rameire ________ 7.3 __ 19.5__ -2.6 __ 113 __ 114 ___ 13 Dec

Schadenfreudia

Schadenfreudia ________ 8.8 __ 16.9 __ -3.0 __ 131 __ 82 ___ 02 Dec

omicron

omicron ________ 8.5 __ 18.9 __ -3.0 __ 110 __ 90 ___ 08 Dec

Editing this 15.41 sunday.

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ________ 7.6 __ 17.2 __ -3.6 __ 90 __ 110 ___ 26 Nov

jd

JD ________ 7.5 __ 19.5__ -3.9 __ 108 __ 094 ___ 29 Nov

mickger844posts

mickger844posts ________ 7.9__ 16.9__ -2.9 __ 87__ 094 ___ 16Dec

Lumi

Lumi ________ 8.0 __ 19.0 __ -3.5 __ 105 __ 083 ___ 15 Dec

Schadenfreudia

In the light of some current events (Valentia 19C) I'm amending my stats

Schadenfreudia ________ 8.8 __ 19.0 __ -3.0 __ 131 __ 82 ___ 02 Dec

I assume it is only fair to alert early entrants to this fact?

sunflower3

Sunflower3 ________ 8.6 __ 19.0 __ -3.3 __ 115 __ 092 ___ 05 Dec

thanks for the tip off Schadenfreudia

sryanbruen

sryanbruen wrote: »

sryanbruen __________ 8.1c __ 15.8c __ -2.1c __ 83% __ 81% ____ 9 Dec

max. as 18.8c instead

M.T. Cranium

Updated for my forecast ...

M.T. Cranium ________ 9.8 __ 19.3 __ -2.5 __ 120 __ 080 ___ 07 Dec

dacogawa

Dacogawa ________ 9.4 __ 19.2 __ -2.9 __ 125 __ 092 ___ 11 Dec

Bsal

Also amending my forecast

Bsal _________ 7.5 _ 18.8 _ -4.0 __ 106 __ 95 ___ 11 Dec

Jpmarn

Jpmarn _________ 8.9 _ 18.1 _ -1.9 __ 130__ 85 ___ 30 Nov.

Tae laidir

Tae laidir __________ 8.0 __ 19.5 __ -3.0 __ 120 __ 097 ____ 18 DEC

Do we need a rule change for 2016, with cutoff at noon on 1st??

Joe Public

Joe Public __________ 7.9 __ 16.9 __ -3.9 __ 139 __ 79 ____ 21 Nov

Rikand

Rikand _____ 8.0 _____ 19.0 _____ -4.0 _____ 90 _____ 120 ______ 21st Dec

mrskinner

Skinner......... 7.8..........19.5..........-3.2........120..........90..........Dec28.

Filleann an feall ______________!

M.T. Cranium

I think we will need to change the deadline, keep in mind that the contest deadline was end of the 1st before I started scoring it, and I prefer the idea of first day being time penalized, will probably keep the 0300h concept though (pub friendly etc).

We will struggle on with 0300h 2nd through December however, and if you spot a situation and edit your forecast, it's all within the rules as written. Anyway, the way things are going, maybe it will be 20 deg next week.

I will get a table together some time tomorrow. Please note, further edits of the max temp in "penalty time" (which starts now) will be subject to a 5 pt penalty per half day within that category if that's what you change, so only do it if you gain more than 5 points.

kindredspirit

Oops! Late again. Was in Anglesey for the weekend with no internet access. Warmest November day for 69 years there yesterday.

kindred spirit.....8.0.....19.....-3.7.....105.....100.....31st.

pauldry

Editting with penalty 19.5c max

Joe Public

I agree the deadline should be 03:00h on the 1st of each month