November 2015 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT for November, the 1981-2010 average was 7.3 C (up from 7.0 in 1971-2000 and 6.6 in 1961-1990).

2. Predict the maximum temperature for November at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the minimum temperature for November at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the rainfall as percentage of normal values, as reported for eleven met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

5. Predict the sunshine as percentage of normal values, as reported for the usual 6 met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

6. Bonus question

Predict the date of the first snow report on official met.ie stations, the usual false automated reports will be discarded, we'll look for some kind of verification to declare the first snowfall (on the hourly reports). no member reports, peaks covered with snow, pictures from Lapland, etc. The date must be in the range 1 Nov to 31 Dec, yes all of Dec in play, bonus will be settled when the snow happens. But if no snow at all by end of 2015 is your call, predict 31 Dec. If there happens to be snow between time of posting and the start of November, the contest will be verified on the next snowfall that occurs. 1-2 Nov look to be too mild for a spoiler snowfall, if one were to happen, it would be luck of the draw and forecasts would be verified as posted and edited under the rules. (no need for location or any other info)

The deadline for entries will be the usual one, 0300h Monday 2 November, with 5 point penalties per half day after that.

Good luck ... template below (add digits if you want, delete unwanted month)

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN __ PRC __ SUN ___ first snow date

Your name __________ x.x __ xx.x __ -x.x __ xxx __ xxx ____ xx NOV.DEC

or just copy mine and edit to suit you ...

M.T. Cranium ________ 9.8 __ 16.7 __ -2.5 __ 120 __ 080 ___ 07 Dec

sryanbruen

sryanbruen __________ 8.1c __ 15.8c __ -2.1c __ 83% __ 81% ____ 9 Dec

pauldry

pauldry__________ 8.2c __ 16.7c __ -3.7c __ 89% __ 89% ____ 25 Dec

dasa29

dasa29 ________ 8.0c __ 15.5c __ -3.0c __ 100% __ 085% ___ 04 Dec

Bsal

Bsal _________ 7.5 _ 16.1 _ -4.0 __ 106 __ 95 ___ 11 Dec

200motels

200motels 9.7 __ 16.9 __ -2.9 __ 122 __ 72 ___ 25 Dec

NMB

NMB__________ 7.1c __ 14.7c __ -3.1c __ 81% __ 90% ____ 24 Dec

lostinashford

lostinAshford ________ 9.3 __ 17.3 __ -2.1 __ 105 __ 089 ___ 31 Dec

John mac

John mac ________ 7.1 __ 18.9 __ -3.2 __ 110 __ 095 ___ 28 Nov

rameire

Rameire ________ 7.3 __ 19.5__ -2.6 __ 113 __ 114 ___ 13 Dec

Schadenfreudia

Schadenfreudia ________ 8.8 __ 16.9 __ -3.0 __ 131 __ 82 ___ 02 Dec

omicron

omicron ________ 8.5 __ 18.9 __ -3.0 __ 110 __ 90 ___ 08 Dec

Editing this 15.41 sunday.

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ________ 7.6 __ 17.2 __ -3.6 __ 90 __ 110 ___ 26 Nov

jd

JD ________ 7.5 __ 19.5__ -3.9 __ 108 __ 094 ___ 29 Nov

mickger844posts

mickger844posts ________ 7.9__ 16.9__ -2.9 __ 87__ 094 ___ 16Dec

Lumi

Lumi ________ 8.0 __ 19.0 __ -3.5 __ 105 __ 083 ___ 15 Dec

Schadenfreudia

In the light of some current events (Valentia 19C) I'm amending my stats

Schadenfreudia ________ 8.8 __ 19.0 __ -3.0 __ 131 __ 82 ___ 02 Dec

I assume it is only fair to alert early entrants to this fact?

sunflower3

Sunflower3 ________ 8.6 __ 19.0 __ -3.3 __ 115 __ 092 ___ 05 Dec

thanks for the tip off Schadenfreudia

sryanbruen

sryanbruen wrote: »

sryanbruen __________ 8.1c __ 15.8c __ -2.1c __ 83% __ 81% ____ 9 Dec

max. as 18.8c instead

M.T. Cranium

Updated for my forecast ...

M.T. Cranium ________ 9.8 __ 19.3 __ -2.5 __ 120 __ 080 ___ 07 Dec

dacogawa

Dacogawa ________ 9.4 __ 19.2 __ -2.9 __ 125 __ 092 ___ 11 Dec

Bsal

Also amending my forecast

Bsal _________ 7.5 _ 18.8 _ -4.0 __ 106 __ 95 ___ 11 Dec

Jpmarn

Jpmarn _________ 8.9 _ 18.1 _ -1.9 __ 130__ 85 ___ 30 Nov.

Tae laidir

Tae laidir __________ 8.0 __ 19.5 __ -3.0 __ 120 __ 097 ____ 18 DEC

Do we need a rule change for 2016, with cutoff at noon on 1st??

Joe Public

Joe Public __________ 7.9 __ 16.9 __ -3.9 __ 139 __ 79 ____ 21 Nov

Rikand

Rikand _____ 8.0 _____ 19.0 _____ -4.0 _____ 90 _____ 120 ______ 21st Dec

mrskinner

Skinner......... 7.8..........19.5..........-3.2........120..........90..........Dec28.

Filleann an feall ______________!

M.T. Cranium

I think we will need to change the deadline, keep in mind that the contest deadline was end of the 1st before I started scoring it, and I prefer the idea of first day being time penalized, will probably keep the 0300h concept though (pub friendly etc).

We will struggle on with 0300h 2nd through December however, and if you spot a situation and edit your forecast, it's all within the rules as written. Anyway, the way things are going, maybe it will be 20 deg next week.

I will get a table together some time tomorrow. Please note, further edits of the max temp in "penalty time" (which starts now) will be subject to a 5 pt penalty per half day within that category if that's what you change, so only do it if you gain more than 5 points.

kindredspirit

Oops! Late again. Was in Anglesey for the weekend with no internet access. Warmest November day for 69 years there yesterday.

kindred spirit.....8.0.....19.....-3.7.....105.....100.....31st.

pauldry

Editting with penalty 19.5c max

Joe Public

I agree the deadline should be 03:00h on the 1st of each month

Joe Public

I think it is worth a mention here as Valentia got so close yesterday and threatening again today.

omicron

Joe Public wrote: »

I think it is worth a mention here as Valentia got so close yesterday and threatening again today.

Met eireann have confirmed Dooks, Co. Kerry at 20.1 yesterday. Don't think it counts for the contest though.

Joe Public

omicron wrote: »

Met eireann have confirmed Dooks, Co. Kerry at 20.1 yesterday. Don't think it counts for the contest though.

Would it count for highest recorded purposes?

pauldry

Does the boiler room outside count

Joe Public

pauldry wrote: »

Does the boiler room outside count

If Met eireann approves

M.T. Cranium

No, in general it has to be one of the stations listed every day on the website under yesterday's weather or past data. Of course they may report that 20.3 in the MS tomorrow. They usually seem to keep these other stations until the much later Monthly Bulletin appears.

We'll see what is listed and go from there. As to the deadline, do you think we would run into a lot of late entries by moving forward one day? I am quite open to it personally, but if anyone objects let us know at this stage. The compromise would be to move up the half-day penalty phases by 12 hours, it would not entirely solve the problem but it would be better than current situation. Mind you, this year has now produced three of these maxes on first (that I can recall) and it was never much of an issue before, I seem to remember one month where a MIN came early and we had to invent a special rule. Anyway, scoring table has been posted from mostly confirmed and some provisional data over in the October thread.

One other thing that I think I have decided, the IMT temperature five stations are working fine and adding in the rest of the precip eleven will cause a warm bias most of the year. This is not as big an issue for precip. So the 2016 contest will continue to use the five station IMT. If I were to add three more (14 in total) to balance the coastal factor, we would just end up back where we started but with stations that don't always report into the Ag Sum which would prevent me from easily updating the running progress aspect.

pauldry

I think on one hand its wrong that you can enter contest on 1st of month at all.

I think on other very few would enter otherwise.

As you say this 1st thing only happens rarely. You could do max min 2nd -1st with same 300hr deadline.

Any other views.

Btw my boiler room has a weather station on the roof so we had 26.2c today....

M.T. Cranium

Yeah, I know what you're saying about the first, but there's two things that quickly become clear to a contest organizer -- one, if you block people from entering by harsh penalties, somebody's going to forget one time and demand a break and then you have to choose between keeping people involved (which is the main point of the contest) or strictly applying the rules without any flexibility (which is what we should always do but never actually do in real life).

And the second thing is that about one third if not more of the field almost always forget to enter until they wake up on the first and realize that a new month has begun. Now, I'm aware that two thirds will remember and think about a forecast towards the end of each month. Over on an American forum where I also run contests, the deadlines are basically first at midnight with time penalties, the same people forget quite often and limp in during the first two days and get whacked with a much bigger penalty than here. Net-weather is a bit more lenient but also go with the first at midnight as penalty-free deadline, also you just can't enter there at all by the early hours of the 4th.

I think I will go with a compromise, partly because I don't want to cram all my end of month activities into the same exact time window. So that starting with Jan 2016 we will have a 1500h first deadline and 5 point penalties every 12h after that. This will mean people will have to assess warm or cold temps on 1st quite rapidly and will not have much time to look up decimals etc. At the same time, it won't result in a huge crop of late penalties which will tend to drive away players. Does this sound better to you all?

It really doesn't offer any real advantage to the monthly forecasts otherwise to enter later on the first, almost no uncertainty over 30-31 days is resolved by one model run.

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts November 2015


FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ first snow

M.T. Cranium _________ 9.8 _ 16.7 _ -2.5 _ 120 _ 080 ___ 07 Dec
200motels ____________9.7 _ 16.9 _ -2.9 _ 122 _ 072 ___ 25 Dec
Dacogawa ____________9.4 _ 19.2 _ -2.9 _ 125 _ 092 ___ 11 Dec
lostinAshford __________9.3 _ 17.3 _ -2.1 _ 105 _ 089 ___ 31 Dec
Jpmarn ______________ 8.9 _ 18.1 _ -1.9 _ 130 _ 085 ___ 30 Nov
Schadenfreudia ________8.8 _ 19.0 _ -3.0 _ 131 _ 082 ___ 02 Dec
Sunflower3 ___________ 8.6 _ 19.0 _ -3.3 _ 115 _ 092 ___ 05 Dec
omicron ______________8.5 _ 18.9 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 08 Dec
pauldry ______________ 8.2 _ 19.5 _ -3.7 _ 089 _ 089 ___ 25 Dec
sryanbruen ___________ 8.1 _ 18.8 _ -2.1 _ 083 _ 081 ___ 09 Dec
Lumi ________________ 8.0 _ 19.0 _ -3.5 _ 105 _ 083 ___ 15 Dec

Con Sensus ___________ 8.0 _ 19.0 _ -3.0 _ 106 _ 090 ___ 11 Dec

kindred spirit __________8.0 _ 19.0 _ -3.7 _ 105 _ 100 ___ 31 Dec
Rikand _______________8.0 _ 19.0 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 21 Dec
dasa29 ______________ 8.0 _ 15.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 085 ___ 04 Dec
Joe Public ____________ 7.9 _ 16.9 _ -3.9 _ 139 _ 079 ___ 21 Nov
mickger844posts _______7.9 _ 16.9 _ -2.9 _ 087 _ 094 ___ 16 Dec
MrSkinner ____________ 7.8 _ 19.5 _ -3.2 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 28 Dec
DOCARCH ____________ 7.6 _ 17.2 _ -3.6 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 26 Nov
JD __________________ 7.5 _ 19.5 _ -3.9 _ 108 _ 094 ___ 29 Nov
Bsal _________________7.5 _ 18.8 _ -4.0 _ 106 _ 095 ___ 11 Dec
Rameire _____________ 7.3 _ 19.5 _ -2.6 _ 113 _ 114 ___ 13 Dec

Norma L _____________ 7.3 _ 18.0 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 27 Nov

John mac ____________ 7.1 _ 18.9 _ -3.2 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 28 Nov
NMB ________________ 7.1 _ 14.7 _ -3.1 _ 081 _ 090 ___ 24 Dec
________________________________________

because of the snafu over the MAX, I will score the non 19 forecasts on a 0-15 scale and the rounded to 19 forecasts 15-20 (some will get a slight boost from this). That is, unless an actual over the current 19.5 occurs, then it may go to the usual mercy rule scoring.

If you're wondering who Norma L is, check the discussion near end of the October thread.

Jpmarn

Valentia has a high of 18.4c yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

Yes, it had already hit 19.5 on the 1st. About half the field have either edited up into that range or already had it when they entered.

In my case I knew it had hit 19 so I just picked a decimal value out of the air. But I suppose you could have found out exactly what it was before the deadline too.

So as I've mentioned, to equalize this situation, I will just score all the higher guesses between 15 and 20 and then apply the mercy rule to the rest which should bring most of them up to more reasonable values in comparison. I will give even the lowest guesses at least 5 just so there isn't a huge difference. In my case, I will go back to my original guess and score that instead of my edit, since I'm near the top of the scoring table. Nobody else is expected to do that, let's just move on.

pauldry

Can believe I got 59 and nearly got last in October.

This is worse than the fantasy football

:P

Rikand

pauldry wrote: »

Can believe I got 59 and nearly got last in October.

This is worse than the fantasy football

:P

LOL

At least here, everyone's score is available to see. You don't just see the high scorers posting while the low scorers hide in the shadows....... (till next week)

Rikand

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Yes, it had already hit 19.5 on the 1st. About half the field have either edited up into that range or already had it when they entered.

In my case I knew it had hit 19 so I just picked a decimal value out of the air. But I suppose you could have found out exactly what it was before the deadline too.

So as I've mentioned, to equalize this situation, I will just score all the higher guesses between 15 and 20 and then apply the mercy rule to the rest which should bring most of them up to more reasonable values in comparison. I will give even the lowest guesses at least 5 just so there isn't a huge difference. In my case, I will go back to my original guess and score that instead of my edit, since I'm near the top of the scoring table. Nobody else is expected to do that, let's just move on.

I think you should keep your score. You have as much right to win the competition as anyone else and you did nothing against the rules.

The last thing we want is to have the eventual winner have an * beside their name because you docked your own score unfairly

pauldry

Yeah I think we should let MT win to thank him for running this minefield

Unless Con or Norma L object.

M.T. Cranium

That's okay, I have a very small lead at the moment and I expect to be passed this month by several players, almost all of whom will be riding their first submission in the MAX category so I feel it's fair for me to do the same. The points won't be that much different after I unleash the mercy rule on the bulk of them anyway.

Tae laidir

It appears Norma L has pushed me off the table.
Looks like the start of a wonderful relationship!

M.T. Cranium

Sorry about that, Tae laidir, I read your comment and didn't realize it was about this month's table, so here's a corrected version with your forecast added in:

Table of forecasts November 2015

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ first snow

M.T. Cranium _________ 9.8 _ 16.7 _ -2.5 _ 120 _ 080 ___ 07 Dec
200motels ____________9.7 _ 16.9 _ -2.9 _ 122 _ 072 ___ 25 Dec
Dacogawa ____________9.4 _ 19.2 _ -2.9 _ 125 _ 092 ___ 11 Dec
lostinAshford __________9.3 _ 17.3 _ -2.1 _ 105 _ 089 ___ 31 Dec
Jpmarn ______________ 8.9 _ 18.1 _ -1.9 _ 130 _ 085 ___ 30 Nov
Schadenfreudia ________8.8 _ 19.0 _ -3.0 _ 131 _ 082 ___ 02 Dec
Sunflower3 ___________ 8.6 _ 19.0 _ -3.3 _ 115 _ 092 ___ 05 Dec
omicron ______________8.5 _ 18.9 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 08 Dec
pauldry ______________ 8.2 _ 19.5 _ -3.7 _ 089 _ 089 ___ 25 Dec
sryanbruen ___________ 8.1 _ 18.8 _ -2.1 _ 083 _ 081 ___ 09 Dec
Tae laidir _____________8.0 _ 19.5 _ -3.0 _ 120 _ 097 ___ 18 Dec
Lumi ________________ 8.0 _ 19.0 _ -3.5 _ 105 _ 083 ___ 15 Dec

Con Sensus ___________ 8.0 _ 19.0 _ -3.0 _ 106 _ 090 ___ 12 Dec

kindred spirit __________8.0 _ 19.0 _ -3.7 _ 105 _ 100 ___ 31 Dec
Rikand _______________8.0 _ 19.0 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 21 Dec
dasa29 ______________ 8.0 _ 15.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 085 ___ 04 Dec
Joe Public ____________ 7.9 _ 16.9 _ -3.9 _ 139 _ 079 ___ 21 Nov
mickger844posts _______7.9 _ 16.9 _ -2.9 _ 087 _ 094 ___ 16 Dec
MrSkinner ____________ 7.8 _ 19.5 _ -3.2 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 28 Dec
DOCARCH ____________ 7.6 _ 17.2 _ -3.6 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 26 Nov
JD __________________ 7.5 _ 19.5 _ -3.9 _ 108 _ 094 ___ 29 Nov
Bsal _________________7.5 _ 18.8 _ -4.0 _ 106 _ 095 ___ 11 Dec
Rameire _____________ 7.3 _ 19.5 _ -2.6 _ 113 _ 114 ___ 13 Dec

Norma L _____________ 7.3 _ 18.0 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 27 Nov

John mac ____________ 7.1 _ 18.9 _ -3.2 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 28 Nov
NMB ________________ 7.1 _ 14.7 _ -3.1 _ 081 _ 090 ___ 24 Dec
________________________________________

M.T. Cranium

A report on the first seven days ...

IMT a very mild 10.3 C at the five stations used.

PRC has averaged 69% of normal at the eleven stations.

SUN has averaged 120% of normal at the six stations.

M.T. Cranium

IMT has reached 10.8 C and yesterday (10th) was 14.4 C.