November 2015 Boards forecast contest

Joe Public

I think it is worth a mention here as Valentia got so close yesterday and threatening again today.

omicron

Joe Public wrote: »

I think it is worth a mention here as Valentia got so close yesterday and threatening again today.

Met eireann have confirmed Dooks, Co. Kerry at 20.1 yesterday. Don't think it counts for the contest though.

Joe Public

omicron wrote: »

Met eireann have confirmed Dooks, Co. Kerry at 20.1 yesterday. Don't think it counts for the contest though.

Would it count for highest recorded purposes?

pauldry

Does the boiler room outside count

Joe Public

pauldry wrote: »

Does the boiler room outside count

If Met eireann approves

M.T. Cranium

No, in general it has to be one of the stations listed every day on the website under yesterday's weather or past data. Of course they may report that 20.3 in the MS tomorrow. They usually seem to keep these other stations until the much later Monthly Bulletin appears.

We'll see what is listed and go from there. As to the deadline, do you think we would run into a lot of late entries by moving forward one day? I am quite open to it personally, but if anyone objects let us know at this stage. The compromise would be to move up the half-day penalty phases by 12 hours, it would not entirely solve the problem but it would be better than current situation. Mind you, this year has now produced three of these maxes on first (that I can recall) and it was never much of an issue before, I seem to remember one month where a MIN came early and we had to invent a special rule. Anyway, scoring table has been posted from mostly confirmed and some provisional data over in the October thread.

One other thing that I think I have decided, the IMT temperature five stations are working fine and adding in the rest of the precip eleven will cause a warm bias most of the year. This is not as big an issue for precip. So the 2016 contest will continue to use the five station IMT. If I were to add three more (14 in total) to balance the coastal factor, we would just end up back where we started but with stations that don't always report into the Ag Sum which would prevent me from easily updating the running progress aspect.

pauldry

I think on one hand its wrong that you can enter contest on 1st of month at all.

I think on other very few would enter otherwise.

As you say this 1st thing only happens rarely. You could do max min 2nd -1st with same 300hr deadline.

Any other views.

Btw my boiler room has a weather station on the roof so we had 26.2c today....

M.T. Cranium

Yeah, I know what you're saying about the first, but there's two things that quickly become clear to a contest organizer -- one, if you block people from entering by harsh penalties, somebody's going to forget one time and demand a break and then you have to choose between keeping people involved (which is the main point of the contest) or strictly applying the rules without any flexibility (which is what we should always do but never actually do in real life).

And the second thing is that about one third if not more of the field almost always forget to enter until they wake up on the first and realize that a new month has begun. Now, I'm aware that two thirds will remember and think about a forecast towards the end of each month. Over on an American forum where I also run contests, the deadlines are basically first at midnight with time penalties, the same people forget quite often and limp in during the first two days and get whacked with a much bigger penalty than here. Net-weather is a bit more lenient but also go with the first at midnight as penalty-free deadline, also you just can't enter there at all by the early hours of the 4th.

I think I will go with a compromise, partly because I don't want to cram all my end of month activities into the same exact time window. So that starting with Jan 2016 we will have a 1500h first deadline and 5 point penalties every 12h after that. This will mean people will have to assess warm or cold temps on 1st quite rapidly and will not have much time to look up decimals etc. At the same time, it won't result in a huge crop of late penalties which will tend to drive away players. Does this sound better to you all?

It really doesn't offer any real advantage to the monthly forecasts otherwise to enter later on the first, almost no uncertainty over 30-31 days is resolved by one model run.

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts November 2015


FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ first snow

M.T. Cranium _________ 9.8 _ 16.7 _ -2.5 _ 120 _ 080 ___ 07 Dec
200motels ____________9.7 _ 16.9 _ -2.9 _ 122 _ 072 ___ 25 Dec
Dacogawa ____________9.4 _ 19.2 _ -2.9 _ 125 _ 092 ___ 11 Dec
lostinAshford __________9.3 _ 17.3 _ -2.1 _ 105 _ 089 ___ 31 Dec
Jpmarn ______________ 8.9 _ 18.1 _ -1.9 _ 130 _ 085 ___ 30 Nov
Schadenfreudia ________8.8 _ 19.0 _ -3.0 _ 131 _ 082 ___ 02 Dec
Sunflower3 ___________ 8.6 _ 19.0 _ -3.3 _ 115 _ 092 ___ 05 Dec
omicron ______________8.5 _ 18.9 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 08 Dec
pauldry ______________ 8.2 _ 19.5 _ -3.7 _ 089 _ 089 ___ 25 Dec
sryanbruen ___________ 8.1 _ 18.8 _ -2.1 _ 083 _ 081 ___ 09 Dec
Lumi ________________ 8.0 _ 19.0 _ -3.5 _ 105 _ 083 ___ 15 Dec

Con Sensus ___________ 8.0 _ 19.0 _ -3.0 _ 106 _ 090 ___ 11 Dec

kindred spirit __________8.0 _ 19.0 _ -3.7 _ 105 _ 100 ___ 31 Dec
Rikand _______________8.0 _ 19.0 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 21 Dec
dasa29 ______________ 8.0 _ 15.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 085 ___ 04 Dec
Joe Public ____________ 7.9 _ 16.9 _ -3.9 _ 139 _ 079 ___ 21 Nov
mickger844posts _______7.9 _ 16.9 _ -2.9 _ 087 _ 094 ___ 16 Dec
MrSkinner ____________ 7.8 _ 19.5 _ -3.2 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 28 Dec
DOCARCH ____________ 7.6 _ 17.2 _ -3.6 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 26 Nov
JD __________________ 7.5 _ 19.5 _ -3.9 _ 108 _ 094 ___ 29 Nov
Bsal _________________7.5 _ 18.8 _ -4.0 _ 106 _ 095 ___ 11 Dec
Rameire _____________ 7.3 _ 19.5 _ -2.6 _ 113 _ 114 ___ 13 Dec

Norma L _____________ 7.3 _ 18.0 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 27 Nov

John mac ____________ 7.1 _ 18.9 _ -3.2 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 28 Nov
NMB ________________ 7.1 _ 14.7 _ -3.1 _ 081 _ 090 ___ 24 Dec
________________________________________

because of the snafu over the MAX, I will score the non 19 forecasts on a 0-15 scale and the rounded to 19 forecasts 15-20 (some will get a slight boost from this). That is, unless an actual over the current 19.5 occurs, then it may go to the usual mercy rule scoring.

If you're wondering who Norma L is, check the discussion near end of the October thread.

Jpmarn

Valentia has a high of 18.4c yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

Yes, it had already hit 19.5 on the 1st. About half the field have either edited up into that range or already had it when they entered.

In my case I knew it had hit 19 so I just picked a decimal value out of the air. But I suppose you could have found out exactly what it was before the deadline too.

So as I've mentioned, to equalize this situation, I will just score all the higher guesses between 15 and 20 and then apply the mercy rule to the rest which should bring most of them up to more reasonable values in comparison. I will give even the lowest guesses at least 5 just so there isn't a huge difference. In my case, I will go back to my original guess and score that instead of my edit, since I'm near the top of the scoring table. Nobody else is expected to do that, let's just move on.

pauldry

Can believe I got 59 and nearly got last in October.

This is worse than the fantasy football

:P

Rikand

pauldry wrote: »

Can believe I got 59 and nearly got last in October.

This is worse than the fantasy football

:P

LOL

At least here, everyone's score is available to see. You don't just see the high scorers posting while the low scorers hide in the shadows....... (till next week)

Rikand

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Yes, it had already hit 19.5 on the 1st. About half the field have either edited up into that range or already had it when they entered.

In my case I knew it had hit 19 so I just picked a decimal value out of the air. But I suppose you could have found out exactly what it was before the deadline too.

So as I've mentioned, to equalize this situation, I will just score all the higher guesses between 15 and 20 and then apply the mercy rule to the rest which should bring most of them up to more reasonable values in comparison. I will give even the lowest guesses at least 5 just so there isn't a huge difference. In my case, I will go back to my original guess and score that instead of my edit, since I'm near the top of the scoring table. Nobody else is expected to do that, let's just move on.

I think you should keep your score. You have as much right to win the competition as anyone else and you did nothing against the rules.

The last thing we want is to have the eventual winner have an * beside their name because you docked your own score unfairly

pauldry

Yeah I think we should let MT win to thank him for running this minefield

Unless Con or Norma L object.

M.T. Cranium

That's okay, I have a very small lead at the moment and I expect to be passed this month by several players, almost all of whom will be riding their first submission in the MAX category so I feel it's fair for me to do the same. The points won't be that much different after I unleash the mercy rule on the bulk of them anyway.

Tae laidir

It appears Norma L has pushed me off the table.
Looks like the start of a wonderful relationship!

M.T. Cranium

Sorry about that, Tae laidir, I read your comment and didn't realize it was about this month's table, so here's a corrected version with your forecast added in:

Table of forecasts November 2015

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ first snow

M.T. Cranium _________ 9.8 _ 16.7 _ -2.5 _ 120 _ 080 ___ 07 Dec
200motels ____________9.7 _ 16.9 _ -2.9 _ 122 _ 072 ___ 25 Dec
Dacogawa ____________9.4 _ 19.2 _ -2.9 _ 125 _ 092 ___ 11 Dec
lostinAshford __________9.3 _ 17.3 _ -2.1 _ 105 _ 089 ___ 31 Dec
Jpmarn ______________ 8.9 _ 18.1 _ -1.9 _ 130 _ 085 ___ 30 Nov
Schadenfreudia ________8.8 _ 19.0 _ -3.0 _ 131 _ 082 ___ 02 Dec
Sunflower3 ___________ 8.6 _ 19.0 _ -3.3 _ 115 _ 092 ___ 05 Dec
omicron ______________8.5 _ 18.9 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 08 Dec
pauldry ______________ 8.2 _ 19.5 _ -3.7 _ 089 _ 089 ___ 25 Dec
sryanbruen ___________ 8.1 _ 18.8 _ -2.1 _ 083 _ 081 ___ 09 Dec
Tae laidir _____________8.0 _ 19.5 _ -3.0 _ 120 _ 097 ___ 18 Dec
Lumi ________________ 8.0 _ 19.0 _ -3.5 _ 105 _ 083 ___ 15 Dec

Con Sensus ___________ 8.0 _ 19.0 _ -3.0 _ 106 _ 090 ___ 12 Dec

kindred spirit __________8.0 _ 19.0 _ -3.7 _ 105 _ 100 ___ 31 Dec
Rikand _______________8.0 _ 19.0 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 21 Dec
dasa29 ______________ 8.0 _ 15.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 085 ___ 04 Dec
Joe Public ____________ 7.9 _ 16.9 _ -3.9 _ 139 _ 079 ___ 21 Nov
mickger844posts _______7.9 _ 16.9 _ -2.9 _ 087 _ 094 ___ 16 Dec
MrSkinner ____________ 7.8 _ 19.5 _ -3.2 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 28 Dec
DOCARCH ____________ 7.6 _ 17.2 _ -3.6 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 26 Nov
JD __________________ 7.5 _ 19.5 _ -3.9 _ 108 _ 094 ___ 29 Nov
Bsal _________________7.5 _ 18.8 _ -4.0 _ 106 _ 095 ___ 11 Dec
Rameire _____________ 7.3 _ 19.5 _ -2.6 _ 113 _ 114 ___ 13 Dec

Norma L _____________ 7.3 _ 18.0 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 27 Nov

John mac ____________ 7.1 _ 18.9 _ -3.2 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 28 Nov
NMB ________________ 7.1 _ 14.7 _ -3.1 _ 081 _ 090 ___ 24 Dec
________________________________________

M.T. Cranium

A report on the first seven days ...

IMT a very mild 10.3 C at the five stations used.

PRC has averaged 69% of normal at the eleven stations.

SUN has averaged 120% of normal at the six stations.

M.T. Cranium

IMT has reached 10.8 C and yesterday (10th) was 14.4 C.

pauldry

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

IMT has reached 10.8 C and yesterday (10th) was 14.4 C.

Yeah but part 2 of november will see more cool interludes so it wont be that high by Nov 30th.

Schadenfreudia

pauldry wrote: »

Yeah but part 2 of november will see more cool interludes so it wont be that high by Nov 30th.

Indeed...it will pan out at 8.8C IMT :rolleyes:

Tae laidir

Some Past IMTs:

Oct. 2015: 10.3

Nov. 2011: 9.6
Nov. 2012: 6.1
Nov. 2013: 6.5
Nov. 2014: 7.3

pauldry

Nov 2015 IMT will prob finish in the 9s close to 2011 figure(after all that record breaking). Would need some severe frosts over a prolonged period to bring it to the 8s now and the "fast Westerly" wont allow this.

M.T. Cranium

I agree, can anyone look up 1994 means, even if for just one station? Casement is often about the same as the IMT average, I find, it's milder than two and colder than two of the five. In the UK "CET" series 1994 and (wait for it) 1818 were very mild, so was 1938 and 2011.

My guess of 9.8 will need a bit of luck, probably low end of the 9s from the guidance available but it does keep getting milder closer to the time in this spell.

The jet stream is very strong all across the Pacific and North America, I would not be looking for this fast flow to end before New Years really.

pauldry

It may not end but I reckon short much colder spells as well for rest of 2015 with an odd "white morning" possible in the northwest

Of course we still have a few 14c nights mixed in for good measure as our weathers crazy.

Was looking at the past records on uk met office Tuesday, 1818 stood out. Average max in Armagh was 11.5c so prob 13 or 14c in kerry.

Didnt look at 1994 sorry but there was an exceptional November then.

However it may not matter if cold mixes with mild until December.

M.T. Cranium

Since we're breaking records I will update the IMT daily, still rising, 10.9 C after eleven days.

Jpmarn

We're in for a more seasonable cold day tomorrow. Most of us will have to put up with maximum temperatures in single figures. This will help to reduce the IMT towards my guess of 8.9c. It is amazing that the IMT of almost 11c has beaten last months IMT of 10.4c.

Jpmarn

Knock airport reported snow this morning at 9am. The temperature was +2c and rainfall equivalent of 1.5mm. I don't live there so I cannot verify this snow incident.

Bsal

Jpmarn wrote: »

Knock airport reported snow this morning at 9am. The temperature was +2c and rainfall equivalent of 1.5mm. I don't live there so I cannot verify this snow incident.

Looks like a sleet shower at 08:30

EIKN 130830Z 26018G33KT 230V290 9999 -SHRASN SCT007 BKN017CB 02/01 Q1010 NOSIG=

EIKN 130900Z 24008KT 190V270 9999 BKN020CB SCT040 02/01 Q1010 NOSIG=