The D'Alembert Way... 4 years later

stingerro

4 years ago when I was a newcomer here I've had this log - http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056251690

It failed. Since that time I had a lot of ups and downs with betting, unfortunately recently its more downs :mad:

So, to keep myself more organized and focused, 4 years later I will make a 2nd approach for using D'Alembert system. It's light progressive system, when I will be making bets which in general shouldn't have odds lower than 2.0 odds total (some exceptions can happen), using singles, or doubles.

My starting bank is 3000 Pln (Polish Zlotych). Starting stake is 100 and my bank will be enough for 8 levels (2nd is 200, 3rd is 300, 4th is 400, 5th is 500). Max bet will be 500 pln though, so if 6th-7th-8th level will be needed I will be looking for increased odds (2.20-2.40-2.60).

All bets here I consider worthy of flat stake, staking will be different only because of the system.

Most of my bets will be "stolen" from other tipsters or sites I'm following and who has proven record. It iincludes some of tipsters who are posting here. There will be a high variety regarding sports and usually there will be 2-3 bets per day.

Bet #1 (Level 1=100 pln):
(Tennis) Joao Sousa (to win a set) vs Gilles Muller (odds 1.93 @ 188bet).

I highlighted the mediocre record of Muller on indoor hard last week when we took Marcos Baghdatis to beat him in Stockholm and the Luxembourger looks short again today versus the dogged Sousa in Valencia.

Conditions in Valencia are slower than Stockholm on a Greenset surface and Muller is yet to win a match at the Swiss Indoors and just one in Valencia, which doesn’t surprise me.

I like Muller in quick, outdoor conditions but today it gives Sousa a chance and the Portuguese is probably such a big price due to losing his last three matches on tour, but that’s probably partly due to fatigue.

Sousa had played Davis Cup immediately followed by a run to the St Petersburg final on slow indoor hard then a trip to Kuala Lumpur then Tokyo, where he beat another big serving lefty in quick conditions in Feli Lopez, and he probably ran out of gas.

Now, after a rest, and back on slowish conditions indoors he takes on a big serving lefty again and the prices looks skewed in favour of Muller for reasons that don’t make sense to me.

Sousa has played two of my big servers this season on indoor hard (Milos Raonic and Jerzy Janowicz) and taken a set each time, while Muller has a 0-1 record as a 1.30 to 1.40 favourite on hard, losing to Ricardas Berankis on slow hard in Zagreb this year.

All of which makes the 3.10 about Sousa a decent ‘long shot’ today.

http://bet.unibet.co.uk/tennis/atp/atp-tennis-betting-sousa-lively-underdog-against-muller-valencia

I choosed more safer version of Sousa winning one set here.

stingerro

Bet#1 is a winner, as Sousa won match 7:6, 6:3

New Bank=3093 PLN.

stingerro

Bet #2 (Level 1=100 PLN):
Basketball, Euro Cup
Levski Sofia (-3.5 pts) vs KB Bashkimi
Odds: 1.80 @ Bwin

stingerro

Bet#2 is a winner, as Levski won easily 77:60

New Bank=3173 PLN.

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Bet #3 (Level 1=100 Pln):
Football, Austrian Cup
(In Play, over 2.5 goals) ASK Ebreichsdorf vs Sturm Graz
Odds: 2.12 @ Bet365

Guests are playing 2 leagues higher (1st division vs 3rd division) and they are playing with quite a strong line up. They've conceded in 74th minute, I expect one more goal here... probably for guests, but you never know, that's why I always consider over safer.

stingerro

Bet#3 is a winner, as Sturm scored quick goal... and hosts equalized almost immediately

Another example why over is always better/safer than FT result.

New Bank=3285 PLN.

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Bet #4 (Level 1=100 PLN):
Football Double:
(BTTS) Hull City vs Leicester City
(BTTS) VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayern Monachium
Odds: 2.99 @ Bet365.

stingerro

Bet#4 is a loser, as Hull and Leicester players forgot they were supposed to do BTTS during 90 minutes and not extra time :mad:

From perspective should take over 2.5 & BTTS in Wolfsburg-Bayern match, had it in my notes too and odds were around evens.

Also, have to remember to not take In Play football bets (unless it's HT) at 188bet or Sbobet, as "pending" takes way too much time there. Had a bet a few hours ago which was cancelled, because goal was scored too quickly... and it was 45-60 seconds after bet was placed. It would be a different story at Bet365.

New Bank=3185 PLN (+185 PLN, 3W-1L)

stingerro

Bet #5 (Level 2=200 Pln):
Basketball, Euro Cup
(In Play) Enisey Krasnoyarsk (to win) vs Lukoil Sofia
Odds: 2.10@ Bet365

SteelyDanJalapeno

Good Luck mate

stingerro

Bet#5 is a winner, Krasnoyarsk won 75:68

They were 1.3 favourite pre game and I've capitalized on them being down by 10 in 2nd quarter (they were 2.60 to win at one moment, but they've scored a 3-pointer when I was processing it). Traveling to Krasnoyarsk for foreign teams is very difficult plus Lukoil is not a team which has enough quality for away wins in EuroCup competition.

New Bank=3405 PLN (+405 PLN, 4W-1L)

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Bet #6 (Level 1=100 Pln):
Ice Hockey, KHL
(In Play)CSKA Moscow (to win in regular time) vs Dinamo Moscow
Odds: 2.00@ Bet365

Middle of 2nd period, currently 2:2. Would expect hosts to win by two goals based on pre game pick. Its 3rd match for guests in 6 days.

stingerro

Bet#6 is a winner, CSKA won 3:2 after scoring decisive goal in 2nd period (3rd was goalless)

Because of close result there had to wait until the end of the game and missed some great bets (like over 2.5 goals in Legia match), oh well. More to come.

New Bank=3505 PLN (+505 PLN, 5W-1L)

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Bet #7 (Level 1=100 Pln):
Football, Greece Cup
(In Play, over 3.5 goals) Olympiacos Pireus vs Platanias
Odds: 2.10@ Bet365

Olympiacos is losing 1:2 with 10 minutes to go. Hoping for the equalizer, especially in such a fishy environment. Of course over is safer choice.

stingerro

Bet#7 is a winner as well, as Olympiacos scored well expected equalized in additional time

New Bank=3615 PLN (+615 PLN, 6W-1L)

stingerro

Bet #8 (Level 1=100 Pln):
Football, Capital One Cup Double:
(Over 14.5 corners) Liverpool vs Bournemouth
Manchester City vs Crystal Palace (Draw No Bet)

Odds: 26.00@ Bet365

Yes, I am serious. Really like this two bets...

stingerro

Bet #8 was a huge miss :mad:

I was way too adventorous. Will try to not make this mistake too aften.

New Bank=3515 PLN (+515 PLN, 6W-2L)

stingerro

After losing an opportunity with over 1.5 goals in Deportivo Municipal match it's time for bet #9.

Bet #9 (Level 2=200 Pln):
Football, MLS Play Off
(Over 4.5 cards) DC United vs NY Revolution

Odds: 1.95@ Bet365 (Asians, as standard is only 1.83...)

DC United host New England early on Thursday in the first of the knockout round games of the 2015 MLS Cup. I have analysed the past four matches at this stage of the competition in previous years and the results are pretty conclusive that there are usually plenty of cards!

One match involving New York Red Bulls had no cards in it but the other three read nine, eight and eight. Supportive stats for a bet tonight for sure.

The whisteblower in this one is Mark Geiger. Typically his stats suggest a lenient referee (five, two, one, two and two in past few matches). However, he took charge of the meeting between these two teams in May. That day he dished out eight yellows and two reds.

Interestingly, in his past four games covering New England he has brandished 12, six, seven and five. All would have been winners based on the current line.

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2015/10/bookings-tips-dc-united-v-new-england-revolution-29th-october-2015/

stingerro

Bet #9 is a winner, despite no cards before 40th minute. But it picked up nicely in 2nd half and we got a 5th one in additional time

New Bank=3705 PLN (+705 PLN, 7W-2L)

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Bet #10 (Level 1=100 Pln):
Football, Nissan Sudamericana Cup
(Over 3.5 goals) Chapocoense vs River Plate)

1:3 in first match, with 10 minutes to go it's 2:1 for the hosts. They also scored plenty of goals in last 15 minutes.

Odds=3,25 @ bet365.

stingerro

Bet #10 lost :mad:

Disappointed that I've missed two great opportunities in South America earlier today (Tolima was 2nd one) ... and when I took one it actually lost.

New Bank=3605 PLN (+605 PLN, 7W-3L)

stingerro

Bet #11 (Level 2=200 Pln):
Tennis, WTA Finals
Flavia Pennetta (to win) vs Maria Sharapova

http://www.bettingkingdom.co.uk/betting-tips/tennis/WTA-Finals/Sharapova-v-Pennetta/62691

Pennetta leads 3-2 the h2h with one match played this year.
Pennetta won the last 3 against Sharapova.
She still can qualify if she defeats Sharapova .
It is the last tournament of hers and will be focused to the death.
Pennetta won a 2-0 against Radwanksa, while Sharapova defeated 2:1 Rad and 2-0 Halep.
Odds are very high and the match-up and surface suits very well Flavia.

it's also worth mentioning that it will be 3rd match for Sharapova after few months break, even if motivated she can have a worse day after two very good ones.

Odds=3,44 @ Pinnacle Sports

stingerro

Bet #11 lost :mad:

Very disappointing performance in last match of Pennetta career, as she lost 5:7, 1:6.

To make things worse - because of this match going on I lost a chance to bet on Donald Young to win a set against Kevin Anderson, he won 6:2 in 1st one and odds for it were great (2.65).

New Bank=3405 PLN (+405 PLN, 7W-4L)

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Bet #12 (Level 3=300 Pln):
Ice Hockey, Kontinental Hockey League (KHL)
Jokerit (to score over 3.5 goals) vs Yugra

Jokerit back on track after beating Avtomobilist 4-1 at home. Solid performance as expected.
This should be piece of cake to Jokerit. They are on a run now and this game should be easiest so far. Jugra have been simply awful lately, last five matches they conceded 28 goals. Results were: 1-7, 2-4, 2-5, 7-6 and 0-6. No wonder I´m betting on over here. I also dont think Jokerit thinks too much of themselves as they dont have such great results lately.

Jokerit no big injuries. I expect atleast 4 or 5 goals and I imagine poor Jugra finding the net as well. Im surprised if Jokerit keeps their concentration whole 60mins.

Tipster have two bets for this match: Over 5.5 goals total and Jokerit winning with -2.0 Asian Handicap. I think that hosts to score over 3.5 goals should be the safest.
http://www.bettingadvice.com/pick/euro-hockey/jokerit-vs-jugra/113085

Odds=2,20 @ bwin.

stingerro

Bet #12 is a winner, as Jokerit leads 4:1 in the middle of 3rd period

New Bank=3765 PLN (+765 PLN, 8W-4L)

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Bet #13 (Level 2=200 Pln):

(Basketball, Euroleague) Barcelona-Panathinaikos
James Gist to score over 10.5 pts
(Rugby Union, France)
Bayonnais (to win) vs Perpignan

Total odds: 2.20 @ Betsafe

stingerro

It was not easy, but Bet #14 is a winner

James Gist scored his 11th point one minute before the end (finished with 13) and Bayonnais barely won 17:14. But who cares

New Bank=4005 PLN (+1005 PLN, 9W-4L)

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Bet #14 (Level 1=100 PLN)

(Over 4.5 cards total) Montreal vs Toronto

Odds: 1.9 @Bet365

http://mandelaaa.blogabet.com/index.php?betID=10443068

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Bet #14 is a loser, only one card in very one-sided match (3:0 for hosts) :mad:

New Bank=3905 PLN (+905 PLN, 9W-5L)

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Bet #15 (Level 2=200 Pln):

Basketball, Argentinian League
(In Play) Atenas vs Regatas (to win)

Odds: 2.15@ 188Bet

Guests win predicted pre match by - http://safin1.blogabet.com. They are 49:45 down at HT, so hoping for better 2nd half by them. Bet looked strong.

stingerro

Bet #15 is a loser, as Regatas lost after OT 97:102 :mad:

New Bank=3705 PLN (+705 PLN, 9W-6L)

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Bet #16 (Level 3=300 Pln):

Football, Czech League
(In Play, over 0.5 goals 1st half) Dukla Praha vs FC Zlin

Hosts are pushing hard and they aften score in 1st half, hoping for a goal before HT.

Odds: 2.05@ 188Bet

stingerro

Bet #16 is a loser again, as Dukla and Zlin finished 1st half 0:0 :mad:

New Bank=3405 PLN (+405 PLN, 9W-7L)

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Bet #17 (Level 4=400 Pln):

Football, Croatian League
(In Play, over 2.0 goals) Zplit vs Dinamo Zagreb
Basketball, Euroleague
Fenerbahce vs Real Madrid (+6.5 pts)

Odds: 2.08@ bet365

stingerro

Bet #17 is a loser as well, both parts of double failed :mad::mad::mad:

New Bank=3005 PLN (+5 PLN, 9W-8L)

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Bet #18 (Level 5=500 Pln)

Took Mensur Suljovic (under 1.5 180's) against Dave Chisnall in Darts European Championship. Later will combine it with something else for a double with odds higher than 2.00.

Odds=1.72 @bet365.

stingerro

Bet #18 is a loser once again :mad:

That's all for today, have already plans for tomorrow's bet. 3 more losing bets and I am out...

New Bank=2505 PLN (-495 PLN, 9W-9L)

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Bet #19 (Level 6=500 Pln, odds at least 2.25)

Football, Premier League
(In Play) Watford vs West Ham (+3.5 corners)

West Ham usually has plenty of corners and so far Watford leads 5:0. Watford just scored, I expect them now to defend much deeper.

Odds=2.40 @bet365.

stingerro

Bet #19 is... a losing one of course :mad:

West Ham didn't have a match with less than 4 corners this season, so of course they've lost corner battle 2:7.

New Bank=2005 PLN (-995 PLN, 9W-10L)

stingerro

I was absent last two months because of some personal stuff, but since I've did it with real money and I don't like things with loose ends I want to inform that 4 years later this log also proved to be a losing one.

Dont remember specifics, but I lost on corners over in Villarreal match and FT result in handball. Oh well.

I still had 1005 PLN left in the bank, but rule was no more than 8 losses in a row... which is shocking enough.

I plan to resurrect my other log here sooner than later, so see you soon.