The D'Alembert way

stingerro · 27-04-2011 4:44pm #1

Okay, hopefully it won't be the shortest lived log ever here, but you never know with me :cool:. As english is not my native language, apologize for all grammar and spelling mistakes.

ElLocoAde introduced this board to me last year, as we both post on international football board he mentioned a few times. After a few weeks I've disappeared, but feeling now it's right time to come back.

I've decided to use a D'Alembert system (ligter than Martingale's progressive system), so I will be making bets for around 2.0 odds total, using singles, or doubles. It will be "recreational" betting for low money using bet365.com, unfortunately most of my bets will be published late, as usually I will have to wait before previous game will end to make sure what stake I should use.

I have a plan to keep playing this way until I would reach Stage 9th of incorrect bets. My bank balance is not enough big at the moment (have 128 PLN there, should have 220 PLN), but if it would be needed I will transfer extra 90 PLN to have enough money for all 8 stages (10+15+20+25+30+35+40+45).

Most of my bets will be "stolen" from other tipsters or sites I'm following, including some of tipsters which are posting here.

Pick nr 1 (stage 1. - game were played earlier today, I promise it will be only time I did like that):
(Romania Football) Unirea Urzicei - CFR Cluj 2
(Romania Football) FC Brasov - Victoria Branesti 1
Total Odds=2.26, Stake=9 PLN, Return=20 PLN

stingerro · 27-04-2011 4:57pm

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 1 (stage 1. - game were played earlier today, I promise it will be only time I did like that):
(Romania Football) Unirea Urzicei - CFR Cluj 2
(Romania Football) FC Brasov - Victoria Branesti 1
Total Odds=2.26, Stake=9 PLN, Potential return=20 PLN

(Romania Football) Unirea Urzicei - CFR Cluj 2 (FT = 1:3)
(Romania Football) FC Brasov - Victoria Branesti 1 (FT = 1:0)
Total Odds=2.26, Stake=9 PLN, Return=20 PLN
Bank Balance=139 PLN (+11 PLN)

stingerro · 27-04-2011 5:14pm

Pick nr 2 (stage 1.):
(Champions League) Real Madrid - FC Barcelona (Asian Goals - Under 2 goals)
Total Odds=2.30, Stake=10 PLN, Potential return=23 PLN

stingerro · 27-04-2011 9:44pm

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 2 (stage 1.):
(Champions League) Real Madrid - FC Barcelona (Asian Goals - Under 2 goals)
Total Odds=2.30, Stake=10 PLN, Potential return=23 PLN

(Champions League) Real Madrid - FC Barcelona (Asian Goals - Under 2 goals) , Final Result=0:2
Total Odds=2.30, Stake=10 PLN, Return=Draw No Bet
Bank Balance=139 PLN (+11 PLN since beginning)

Stupid Pepe, stupid ref and stupid Messi - it was going perfectly for under 2 goals and all three made it draw no bet. Of course stupid me as well, as I was too greedy to play under 2,5 goals, oh well. Will try to prepare something for the night, Copa Libertadores or MLB looks like the best possibility.

stingerro · 27-04-2011 11:10pm

Pick nr 3 (stage 1.):
(Copa Libertadores) Santos - Club America (both teams to score)
Total Odds=1.80, Stake=10 PLN, Potential return=18 PLN

stingerro · 28-04-2011 7:37am

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 3 (stage 1.):
(Copa Libertadores) Santos - Club America (both teams to score)
Total Odds=1.80, Stake=10 PLN, Potential return=18 PLN

(Copa Libertadores) Santos vs Club America - both teams to score (Final Result = 1:0) :mad:
Total Odds=1.80, Stake=10 PLN, Return=0 PLN
Bank Balance=129 PLN (+1 PLN since beginning)

stingerro · 28-04-2011 11:35am

Pick nr 4 (stage 2.):
(Romania Football) Dinamo - Bistrita (Over 2,5 goals)
Total Odds=1.72, Stake=15 PLN, Potential return=25 PLN

stingerro · 28-04-2011 11:53am

It's time for my own pick, so it deserves some explanation why I am going for an underdog. I will definitely make this pick just before 6 pm, just don't know what stake I will put (as it depends on previous games results in D'Alembert system)

Turow Zgorzelec vs Trefl Sopot, Polish Basketball League, Game 5 of semifinals. 2.50 for guests win

It's 2-2 after 4 games in series when team needs 4 games to win and advance to the finals. Trefl is in theory an underdog here (being 3rd seeded, Turow 2nd) and playing on the road in difficult circumstances (long road and rowdy crowd). But they are widely considered to be a better team - they won game 1st (at road) and 3rd (home), both times losing 2 days later, allowing Turow to tie series twice. Trefl also won both games in regular season. In a league when you need to have 2 polish players all the time on the court it's big advantage for Trefl to have better local players than Turow's. One of them, Filip Dylewicz, is also the only one player in the series who has skills and experience to be a difference maker. Turow also doesn't have a back up point guard, which not only makes their starting PG tired in 4th quarters, but it also makes more difficult for them to have a bigger variety in the way they're playing.

I've also just spoke to Trefl's sports director (who is my good friend), he told me they had good week of practices (there was a break because of Easter) and all players are healthy. So at 2.50 it's IMO a decent opportunity to back Trefl. Good luck.

stingerro · 28-04-2011 1:37pm

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 4 (stage 2.):
(Romania Football) Dinamo - Bistrita (Over 2,5 goals)
Total Odds=1.72, Stake=15 PLN, Potential return=25 PLN

(Romania Football) Dinamo vs Bistrita, Over 2,5 goals - Final Result: 3:0

Total Odds=1.72, Stake=15 PLN, Return=25 PLN
Bank Balance=139 PLN (+11 PLN since beginning)

stingerro · 28-04-2011 1:42pm

Pick nr 5 (stage 1.):
(Romania football) Otelul - Gaz Metan (Pick: Otelul Win)
(Woman Tennis) Sara Errani - Alberta Brianti (Pick: Errani win)
Total Odds=1.99, Stake=10 PLN, Potential return=20 PLN

stingerro · 28-04-2011 3:59pm

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 5 (stage 1.):
(Romania football) Otelul - Gaz Metan (Pick: Otelul Win)
(Woman Tennis) Sara Errani - Alberta Brianti (Pick: Errani win)
Total Odds=1.99, Stake=10 PLN, Potential return=20 PLN

Otelul - Gaz Metan 2:2 :mad:
Sara Errani - Alberta Brianti 6:2, 6:3

Total Odds=1.99, Stake=10 PLN, Return=0 PLN
Bank Balance=129 PLN (+1 PLN since beginning)

I am not sure about that, but it looks like Otelul didn't convert a penalty in additional time, oh well

stingerro · 28-04-2011 4:01pm

Pick nr 7 (stage 3.):
(Men's Tennis) Frederico Gil - Fernando Verdasco (Pick: Gil win)
Total Odds=2,20, Stake=20 PLN, Potential return=44 PLN

Grrrrr, shouldn't bet when working, put 20 PLN instead of 15 on it. I will correct it with Turow vs Trefl match though.

stingerro · 28-04-2011 4:19pm

Pick nr 6 (stage 2.):
(Polish Basketball) PGE Turow Zgorzelec - Trefl Sopot (Pick: Trefl win)
Total Odds=2,35, Stake=15 PLN, Potential return=35 PLN

stingerro · 28-04-2011 5:53pm

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 7 (stage 3.):
(Men's Tennis) Frederico Gil - Fernando Verdasco (Pick: Gil win)
Total Odds=2,20, Stake=20 PLN, Potential return=44 PLN

Frederico Gil - Fernando Verdasco 1:6, 6:7 :mad:
Total Odds=2.20, Stake=10 PLN, Return=0 PLN
Bank Balance=109 PLN (-19 PLN since beginning)

Not what I've expected especially when Trefl is trailing by 11 points at half time, playing some truly terrible basketball.

stingerro · 28-04-2011 7:01pm

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 6 (stage 2.):
(Polish Basketball) PGE Turow Zgorzelec - Trefl Sopot (Pick: Trefl win)
Total Odds=2,35, Stake=15 PLN, Potential return=35 PLN

PGE Turow Zgorzelec - Trefl Sopot (Final Result: 78:77)
Total Odds=2,35, Stake=15 PLN, Return=0 PLN
Bank Balance=94 PLN (-34 PLN since beginning)

Game was decided 2 seconds before the buzzer and Trefl still had a chance to win it, but one of their guards missed a simple lay up, after the ball was brought from the sidelines.

Hoping that maybe somebody tried a spread pick instead of going for a full glory.

Not a good day, but I was completely honest - it can be a short ride.

stingerro · 28-04-2011 7:55pm

Pick nr 8 (stage 4.):
(Europe League) FC Porto - Villarreal (Pick: Porto to win by more than 1 goal)
Total Odds=2,05, Stake=25 PLN, Potential return=52 PLN

stingerro · 29-04-2011 12:23am

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 8 (stage 4.):
(Europe League) FC Porto - Villarreal (Pick: Porto to win by more than 1 goal)
Total Odds=2,05, Stake=25 PLN, Potential return=52 PLN

FC Porto - Villarreal (Final Result: 5:1)

Total Odds=2,05, Stake=25 PLN, Return=52 PLN
Bank Balance=121 PLN (-7 PLN since beginning)

stingerro · 29-04-2011 1:42am

Pick nr 9 (stage 3.):
(NBA) Portland Trail Blazers - Dallas Mavericks (Pick: Blazers Win)
(Australian football) Sydney Swans - Carlton Blues (Pick: Sydney win)
Total Odds=2,58, Stake=20 PLN, Potential return=52 PLN

stingerro · 29-04-2011 7:53am

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 9 (stage 3rd):
(NBA) Portland Trail Blazers - Dallas Mavericks (Pick: Blazers Win)
(Australian football) Sydney Swans - Carlton Blues (Pick: Sydney win)
Total Odds=2,58, Stake=20 PLN, Potential return=52 PLN

Portland Trail Blazers - Dallas Mavericks (Final Result: 96:103) :mad:
(Australian football) Sydney Swans - Carlton Blues (Pick: Sydney win) Total Odds=2,58, Stake=20 PLN, Return=0 PLN
Bank Balance=101 PLN (-27 PLN since beginning)

I still like my AFL pick, so I will use it later today in some combination once again; hopefully the other one will be a better than NBA's. Especially when once again it will be "stage 4" pick, so quite a dangerous territory for me and my tiny budget.

stingerro · 29-04-2011 10:29am

Pick nr 10 (stage 4th):
(Men's Tennis) Kohlschreiber - Stepanek (Pick: Kohlschreiber Win)
(Australian football) Sydney Swans - Carlton Blues (Pick: Sydney win)
Total Odds=2,21, Stake=25 PLN, Potential return=55 PLN

stingerro · 29-04-2011 1:28pm

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 10 (stage 4th):
(Men's Tennis) Kohlschreiber - Stepanek (Pick: Kohlschreiber Win)
(Australian football) Sydney Swans - Carlton Blues (Pick: Sydney win)
Total Odds=2,21, Stake=25 PLN, Potential return=55 PLN

Kohlschreiber - Stepanek (Final result: ?)
Sydney Swans - Carlton Blues (Final result: 71:87) :mad:
Total Odds=2,21, Stake=25 PLN, Return=0 PLN
Bank Balance=76 PLN (-52 PLN since beginning)

stingerro · 29-04-2011 4:59pm

Pick nr 11 (stage 5th):
(2nd Bundesliga) Hertha Berlin - TSV 1860 Monachium (Pick: TSV 1860 Munchen (+1)
Total Odds=2,15, Stake=30 PLN, Potential return=64 PLN

stingerro · 29-04-2011 6:48pm

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 11 (stage 5th):
(2nd Bundesliga) Hertha Berlin - TSV 1860 Monachium (Pick: TSV 1860 Munchen (+1)
Total Odds=2,15, Stake=30 PLN, Potential return=64 PLN

Hertha Berlin - TSV 1860 Monachium (Final result: 1:2)

Total Odds=2,15, Stake=30 PLN, Return=64 PLN
Bank Balance=110 PLN (-18 PLN since beginning)

stingerro · 29-04-2011 6:54pm

Pick nr 12 (stage 4th):
(Belgium Football ) Standard Liege - Gent (Pick: Liege win)
(Netherland's Football) RKC Waalwijk - Roosendaal (Pick: Waalwijk win)
Total Odds=2,07, Stake=25 PLN, Potential return=51 PLN

stingerro · 29-04-2011 7:02pm

I am not sure if anyone is following my log, but I have a question - one day after I realized that I should counter my pick for Trefl 2 minutes before end of the game. They were original an underdog at 2.50-2.35 and they were leading by 6 points 90 seconds before the end (71:77). Any guesses how high were the odds for losing opponents at that moment, which would allow me to counter my main bet? 4? 6? 8?

UrbanSea · 29-04-2011 7:18pm

Could have been higher,but that's a guess. Maybe 10,12?

stingerro · 29-04-2011 7:29pm

UrbanSea wrote: »

Could have been higher,but that's a guess. Maybe 10,12?

Okay, thanks. Need to remember about simple stuff like that next time, as it costs me money from time to time.

stingerro · 29-04-2011 9:45pm

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 12 (stage 4th):
(Belgium Football) Standard Liege - Gent (Pick: Liege win)
(Netherland's Football) RKC Waalwijk - Roosendaal (Pick: Waalwijk win)
Total Odds=2,07, Stake=25 PLN, Potential return=51 PLN

Standard Liege - Gent (Final result: 1:0)

RKC Waalwijk - Roosendaal (Final result: 7:0)

Total Odds=2,07, Stake=25 PLN, Return=49 PLN (2 PLN were used for a counter bet in 80th minute)
Bank Balance=134 PLN (+6 PLN since beginning)

Nice to be again over the line. Last 10 minutes of Liege - Gent match were much more comfortable for me, after I made a tiny bet for a draw at 10.0 odds. Despite playing with one man down Gent was putting a solid pressure on hosts, so I felt it was necessary.

I think it's enough for today, hopefully tomorrow I will continue my mini-streak

stingerro · 29-04-2011 11:56pm

Pick nr 13 (stage 3rd):
(NASL/USL Pro) PR Islanders - Fort Lauderdale (Pick: Islanders AH -1,25)
Total Odds=2,00, Stake=20 PLN, Potential return=40 PLN.

It's third time in row when I am looking for a win during the night, maybe it will happen against 13th pick. I've never heard of this league before, but reading about this match it sounds like a decent opportunity, hopefully

stingerro · 30-04-2011 6:22am

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 13 (stage 3rd):
(NASL/USL Pro) PR Islanders - Fort Lauderdale (Pick: Islanders AH -1,25)
Total Odds=2,00, Stake=20 PLN, Potential return=40 PLN.

It's third time in row when I am looking for a win during the night, maybe it will happen against 13th pick. I've never heard of this league before, but reading about this match it sounds like a decent opportunity, hopefully

PR Islanders - Fort Lauderdale (Result: 2:2) :mad:
Total Odds=2,00, Stake=20 PLN, Potential return=40 PLN.
Bank Balance=114 PLN (-14 PLN since beginning)

Another lost bet during the night, I definitely should limit myself from betting after 10 pm

Hosts were big favourites, but they were one man down and one goal down since 36th minute, so it was clear that bet was over for somebody like me who was playing AH -1.25. :mad:

stingerro · 30-04-2011 12:02pm

Pick nr 14 (stage 4th):
(2. Bundesliga) Ingolstadt-Aue (Pick: Home win DNB)
(Romanian Football) Sportul - TG Mures (Pick: Home win DNB)
Total Odds=2,31, Stake=25 PLN, Potential return=58 PLN

The D'Alembert way

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