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Should Peyton Manning Retire?
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12-10-2015 9:42pmPeyton Manning is one of the best QBs ever to play the game. His brain operates like a machine analysing defences and adjusting to compensate. He has had perfect timing throwing the ball and his quick release made it very difficult to sack or pressure him.
Peyton Manning is now 39 years old. Last season he was excellent in the first half of the season and then appeared to go into a rapid decline. The decline was blamed on an injury he suffered V the Chargers in Week 15 but the reality is that issues were evident for a number of games prior.
This season there is evidence of serious and terminal decline in Manning's ability to play QB. Yes the Denver OL is very poor - but the decline in Manning's play is obvious.
1. Manning was never able to throw a deep ball but this season he is showing an inability to get any zip on the ball and anything thrown over 10 yards is floating all over the place.
2. Manning is very slow. He cannot play under center and would be unable to drop back even three steps without getting sacked.
3. In order to avoid pressure Manning is releasing the ball as quickly as possible and is throwing into space in the hope the receiver arrives and catches the pass.
Manning's stats this season are as follows
120 completions from 189 attempts (63.5%) - Manning's lowest percentage since 2001
1,234 yards - an average of 6.5 yards - Manning's lowest average since his rookie season
6 TDs and 7INTs - Manning usually throws three times the TDs to interceptions and has not had a negative season since his rookie season
77.3 QB rating - and while I don't put much stock in QB ratings Manning was 101.5 last season. This has been by far his lowest QB rating since his rookie season.
The problems don't end there. Defences know that Manning cannot pass beyond ten yards and don't need to defend deep (the 41 yd reception yesterday by Fowler was a 9 yd pass and a 32 yd run after the catch). The ZBS scheme employed by Kubiak requires the QB to play under center in order to set up the run. Because Manning can't play under center the running game has been ineffective. Because of the inability of Manning to move the ball the Broncos are repeatedly going 3 and out. Yesterday the Broncos had an 18% conversion on third downs.
Manning no longer has the physical skills to play as an NFL QB. But he is incapable of operating as a game manager. Manning knows how to play one way and one way only and he is no longer capable of playing the game the way he has for the past 15 years.
Manning is a guaranteed HOF and has rightly earned the respect and reputation that an elite QB deserves. However, in my opinion, Manning is severely damaging his reputation as one of the best QBs of all time. The longer he continues to play this season the more he is likely to decline (yesterday was probably his worst performance of the season). The longer he continues the more damage he is doing and the more embarrassing his play will become. He is also increasing the chances of getting severely hurt. He cannot escape any pressure and collapses in a heap as soon as he sees any pressure coming his way. Manning has been sacked 12 times in five games and in most cases he has gone to ground without actually being touched. The only thing that is keeping Manning going is his sharp brain and his quick release but this does not come remotely close to compensating for his inability to actually throw the ball.
Given that Manning no longer has the physical skills to play as an NFL QB and his play is a growing embarrassment and damaging his reputation as one of the best QBs to play the game - should Manning recognise his clear limitations and realise that he cannot any longer play this game, retire from the game now rather than wait to take a pounding and leave the sport at the end of the season with his reputation being seriously damaged.0
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I was gonna say couldn't this be discussed in the Broncos thread, but I don't actually think there is one?
He should have gone last off season, this is definitely his last year but I'm not sure I see him going before the season ends, the decision could be made for him alright if he is willing to go quietly they could invent a season ending injury that he just doesn't come back from.
Depends on him, he surely knows he is not playing anywhere near the level he can and is in fact holding his team back I would suggest offensively, whether he can bring himself to admit that publicly or not I don't know
Just try coast through and hope the D carry him to some respectability this season and bow out is my prediction"People say ‘go with the flow’ but do you know what goes with the flow? Dead fish."
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The Broncos are 5-0 right. Looks like his limitations will still get them further than their backup QB or anyone the might pick up on a trade.
Is his performance deteriorating? Yes.
Is it bad enough that he should retire now? No.
Should he retire at the end of this season. Inevitably?
I think you're probably 5 weeks too late on this one. 5-0 says worry about this after Feb 2016, the Denver D is probably good enough to get them into the post season.
How do those stats stack up against any possible replacement? Who is going to come in?
Tebow??!!..come on, sadly for the Broncos they don't have a replacement ready to go that knows the offence and is good enough. Problem for them to solve.0 -
StringerBell wrote: »I was gonna say couldn't this be discussed in the Broncos thread, but I don't actually think there is one?
There is a Broncos thread - but this really isn't about the Broncos - its about Manning as a player.0 -
Jolly Red Giant wrote: »
1. Manning was never able to throw a deep ball but this season he is showing an inability to get any zip on the ball and anything thrown over 10 yards is floating all over the place.
What? I wouldn't agree. Firstly lets define what is considered a deep pass, 20+ yards. Now we have that out of the way. In the last couple of years he has struggled with the Deep pass but he definitely had the ability to throw deep in his early years and his prime. He may not have been the best deep passer over the years but he was more than capable of throwing a deep pass.
An article written in 2013 with stats taken from PFF:
http://regressing.deadspin.com/charts-who-are-the-best-deep-passers-in-the-nfl-1469917039
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Magico Gonzalez wrote: »The Broncos are 5-0 right. Looks like his limitations will still get them further than their backup QB or anyone the might pick up on a trade.Magico Gonzalez wrote: »I think you're probably 5 weeks too late on this one. 5-0 says worry about this after Feb 2016, the Denver D is probably good enough to get them into the post season.Magico Gonzalez wrote: »How do those stats stack up against any possible replacement? Who is going to come in?
Tebow??!!..come on, sadly for the Broncos they don't have a replacement ready to go that knows the offence and is good enough. Problem for them to solve.
But the question really isn't about the Broncos - is Manning able to critically assess his declining abilities and realise that he is damaging his reputation and embarrassing himself? In my opinion he should 'suffer' a season-ending injury and retire now rather than continue to decline and become a liability for himself and his team.0 -
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I'll only say yes because I don't like watching him play like this now.0
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I don't think it's jumping the gun to say the Broncos are 5-0 in spite of Peyton Manning rather than because of him.
However, asking if he should retire is a silly question. If he wants to keep playing, he can keep playing as long as someone is willing to pay him to do so. I also don't get the argument that a reputation as stellar as Manning's can be "damaged" or "tarnished". Retiring on a high is a silly notion. I don't consider Ed Reed's accomplishments to be less impressive following his stints with the Jets, Texans etc. I don't consider Favre's records to mean less because of his time with New York or his last season with Minnesota. Likewise Randy Moss after he bounced around Minnesota, Tennessee and San Francisco towards the end. What these players have accomplished is already done, it can't be taken away.
Manning will go down as arguably a top 5 QB of all time, definitely a top 10. So what if age and injury catches up with him? He wouldn't be playing if he didn't still love it, who are any fans to tell him when to call it quits?0 -
I never really got to see much of Peyton at his ultimate peak (pre-injury at Colts) but it's one of the saddest things in sports when as a fan you watch a player come up, peak and then start to decline. However, there's no chance he retires during the season. None. Even if they were 0-5 he still wouldn't do it.
I honestly think he'll play through his contract and retire at the end of the 2016 season. The man has more money than he could ever hope to spend, but I still can't see him leaving $19m on the table next year and the Broncos won't release him.
He certainly has deteriorated, there's no getting away from that, but in ways he hasn't really been helped either. The O-line is very poor at the moment. PFF ranked them at 22nd in pass blocking and 20th in run blocking prior to week 5 so they're probably even lower now. There's also absolutely no run game. Denver are 30th overall in rushing yards per game and last year's C.J. Anderson has this year been replaced by someone who won a competition to play for the Broncos as an RB for a season. He's in a completely new style offense too.
At 5-0 in the AFC West coupled with their remaining schedule, they're essentially in the playoffs already and look to be in a 3 horse race for the #1 and #2 seeds. With that defense, I still wouldn't rule them completely out of the weak AFC. As things stand the Patriots likely beat them, sure. The Bengals still have it all to prove in the playoffs. The Colts even with Luck under centre have been stuttering massively this season and need to improve big time. Steelers could certainly put it up to them if Ben is back early enough to nick a wildcard spot. I wouldn't even consider anyone else at the moment.
It would be fantastically ironic if a defense were to carry Peyton for a season for once. :pac:
As an aside, Osweiler won't make a starting NFL QB as long as I have a hole in my arse IMO. It'll be interesting to see what happens there in the coming months as he's a free agent in 2016.0 -
As long as the Broncos are going to the playoffs he shouldn't retire imo. A couple of years after your prime is not going to destroy your reputation. It's the guys that go long past their prime that tarnish their rep.0
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Peyton was very poor in the latter half of last season and it looked like his time was due. This season, I've seen nothing to suggest that last season was just a blip in form. He is clearly now on a downhill spiral and I think he probably should have retired at the end of 2014. The more he plays the way he's playing, the further he gets away from the Peyton I remember and enjoyed watching throughout his career. I can't see him doing a lot to contribute towards winning another ring and as Paully said, he'll probably have to depend on his defense for that. So if he stays on for that fair enough. Right now he's not the player I remember and that's always kinda sad when it's one of the greats. He himself can't be happy with his own standard of play and he certainly doesn't need the money. The only thing he stands to lose is his health and I would be fearful of another serious injury to his neck at his age. So I'm hoping he rides off into the sunset soon and doesn't risk his health any further.0
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I'd suspect Manning will be benched before the end of the year.
The Broncos D is legitimate, but they wont stand a chance against a team like the Pats that will do enough on offence to get the upper hand while holding out their struggling O.
If they want to compete on the big stage, they'll need a change at the helm.
Making that move may trigger Manning to retire at the end of the season rather than sit on a bench to collect his $19m next season.0 -
Jolly Red Giant wrote: »There is a Broncos thread - but this really isn't about the Broncos - its about Manning as a player.
Who is a Broncos player, so would be grand to be discussed in that thread
The mods seem fine with it so no problems from me"People say ‘go with the flow’ but do you know what goes with the flow? Dead fish."
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It's good to have threads on the main forum - it can sometimes feel a bit weird dipping into other teams threads and I'm sure many don't look into every one so you can miss a lot of good discussions.
Anyway I cringe slightly seeing Manning of late. He looks so frail and his arm so so weak.0 -
I cant see Manning either being retired or let go mid season. They knew what he was like prior to this, and they kept it going. It is sad to see. And even from a Patriots point of view, the Brady/Manning debates used to be great craic, but it's not even up for discussion anymore. As per the QB thread, Rodgers has taken his position atop the pedestal, and Manning is an after thought now. Bradys last superbowl ended their debate, and from a purely selfish point of view, I didnt want Manning to win a superbowl ahead of Brady again. But now, its a pity that even his brother will have more rings than him, so if he does somehow get one this year, which is not beyond the realms of possiblity, then I certainly wouldnt begrudge it to him.0
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Broncos are likely to go to the playoffs. If I were a Broncos fan, I would rather have Manning under centre in January, rather than Osweiler or some dud they trade in.
The Broncos have no better options. He clearly wants to play. They are 5-0. To me, he needs to play on.0 -
Corvus Maximus wrote: »Peyton was very poor in the latter half of last season and it looked like his time was due. This season, I've seen nothing to suggest that last season was just a blip in form. He is clearly now on a downhill spiral and I think he probably should have retired at the end of 2014. The more he plays the way he's playing, the further he gets away from the Peyton I remember and enjoyed watching throughout his career. I can't see him doing a lot to contribute towards winning another ring and as Paully said, he'll probably have to depend on his defense for that. So if he stays on for that fair enough. Right now he's not the player I remember and that's always kinda sad when it's one of the greats. He himself can't be happy with his own standard of play and he certainly doesn't need the money. The only thing he stands to lose is his health and I would be fearful of another serious injury to his neck at his age. So I'm hoping he rides off into the sunset soon and doesn't risk his health any further.
On a couple of other issues - the Chart showing Manning's 'ability' to throw 'deep' - stats don't tell everything. A large number of those 'deep' passes were actually short to intermediate range with large chunks of yardage being picked up after the catch. Manning always floated his deep ball. Now Manning in his prime more than compensated for this weakness by his other vast skills and his inability to throw deep didn't matter. Now, because of his decline it makes a massive difference to the team and to Manning himself as it is exposing him to a relentless pass rush. And the defences Manning has faced so far have shown to be far from stellar.
The suggestion that Manning will see out the remainder of his contract next season - that will not happen - if he refuses to retire he will 'fail' the medical that is built into his contract (and that is what should have happened this off-season).
It is not a case of Manning being 'a couple of years past his prime' - he was a couple of years past his prime two years ago. Manning has gone into a rapid decline. The primary reason he has put any points on the board offensively is because the Broncos D is getting him the ball in great field position by turing it over. After the Lions game the media were raving about his 45 yard bomb to DT for a TD. But it wasn't a 45 yard bomb it was a 25 yard jump ball that DT managed to outjump the CB and run it in from 20 yards out.
Last point - the Broncos have no idea what they have in Osweiler. It is clear that he has the physical attributes to run a WCO and he has been on a learning curve for four years now. At a certain point in time the Broncos have to find out if he can actually become a servicable QB in the NFL. The big thing that Os has going for him over Manning is that he can throw a deep ball (and accurately) and defences would have to respect that if Os was on the field - they don't with Manning.0 -
I really don't see any better option for the Broncos right now, tbh.
Undoubtedly Manning needs to retire in the offseason, however.0 -
ah look you have to remember that there is a new system in place at the broncos with kubiak - and to think they want a run heavy slower offense! When manning gets to pick up the pace and call quick plays he has a top 2 pairing with Sanders and Thomas - get run after catch players - and he showed he can do that in the last quarter in week 2 against the chiefs!!
Right im not saying that its not mannings fault i think that he is done at the end of the year (i think he should have retired this summer) - but - his Offensive Coach - his Running Backs - and his Offensive Line - are not doing him any favours at all with their play - and it all comes back on Peyton0 -
one of my favorite gifs with Manning and Osweiler...
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Jolly Red Giant wrote: »Last point - the Broncos have no idea what they have in Osweiler. It is clear that he has the physical attributes to run a WCO and he has been on a learning curve for four years now. At a certain point in time the Broncos have to find out if he can actually become a servicable QB in the NFL. The big thing that Os has going for him over Manning is that he can throw a deep ball (and accurately) and defences would have to respect that if Os was on the field - they don't with Manning.
But doing it now while the team is 5-0, even though Manning has deteriorated, would be ridiculous IMO. If the coaching staff tried to do it and they lost a game they'd be absolutely strung up by the balls and rightly so. It's just not the right time. It's a better discussion if they've lost a few games IMO because lets be honest, we all know a change is not going to be made when a team is 5-0 regardless of how it has happened.
Osweiler is huge and has a rocket arm, that's literally all anyone can go on. He played 15 games in college and was a very questionable decision-maker in those games. Sure, sitting behind and learning from Manning every day in practice will ensure he has had the opportunity to learn from one of the best, but at the end of the day there's a massive difference between throwing the ball a total of 30 times in garbage time over a period of 3 years to starting behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.
Personally, I think Broncos fans championing Osweiler over Manning would be in for a rude awakening if a change was to happen now. Manning, while clearly massively deteriorating, still has the smarts and thus he appears to stilll be checking out of/into the right play far more often than not. Would you really trust Osweiler to be able to run the show well enough behind that O-line to avoid getting demolished? I certainly wouldn't. There's also no run game (the line now ranks 29th in run blocking per Football Outsiders) and while it would get better with a cannon, how much better can it really get with that sort of run blocking? That means you've got to be confident in what is essentially a rookie in terms of playing time throwing the ball ~30 times a game?
Manning, regardless of the deterioration, is the better option as thing stand IMO. The Broncos face a trickier run between now and December (@ Browns, vs Packers, @ Colts, vs Chiefs, @ Bears, vs Patriots). It'll be interesting to review things after that Monday Night Football game against the Patriots on the last day in November.0 -
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But doing it now while the team is 5-0, even though Manning has deteriorated, would be ridiculous IMO. If the coaching staff tried to do it and they lost a game they'd be absolutely strung up by the balls and rightly so. It's just not the right time. It's a better discussion if they've lost a few games IMO because lets be honest, we all know a change is not going to be made when a team is 5-0 regardless of how it has happened.Manning, regardless of the deterioration, is the better option as thing stand IMO. The Broncos face a trickier run between now and December (@ Browns, vs Packers, @ Colts, vs Chiefs, @ Bears, vs Patriots). It'll be interesting to review things after that Monday Night Football game against the Patriots on the last day in November.
It is debatable whether Manning is the better option. His was atrocious in the first two games when the Broncos ran a kind of hybrid offence. He picked up a little against the Lions when they went to the pistol but now defences have adjusted again and he was absolutely awful against the Raiders on Sunday. Once opposing teams know that the Manning can't pass further than 10 yards and the Broncos cannot run when Manning isn't under center it is very easy to defend against. If Os replaced Manning it would not be pretty but at least the Broncos could fully implement the WCO and ZBS, improving the running game and forcing defences to play honest against the pass.
Broncos will likely win against the Browns next week, lose to the Packers, the Colts are awful so the Broncos could win that one, they will probably beat the Chiefs (particularly with Charles out), the Bears are terrible and the Broncos should win that one and lose to the Pats. They would then be 9-2 and I would think that the Broncos would be 9-2 with Os just as easy as with Manning because the defence will win all those games.
All of this is mute - because Manning will remain as QB unless he gets hurt or decides to call it a day. The question is what will Manning be like by the end of the season after throwing 45 times a game and facing defences that only have to play 10 yards deep?0 -
nasty_crash wrote: »and he showed he can do that in the last quarter in week 2 against the chiefs!!nasty_crash wrote: »Right im not saying that its not mannings fault i think that he is done at the end of the year (i think he should have retired this summer) - but - his Offensive Coach - his Running Backs - and his Offensive Line - are not doing him any favours at all with their play - and it all comes back on Peyton0
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To replace Manning with a largely untested QB would be nuts and career suicide for any coach.0
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I always hate these threads. Manning should keep playing as long as he is enjoying it. The only caveat to this is I would worry about him getting injured. Should the coaches put him on the field is another question but that is on the coaches and not on Manning.
I always hate these threads suggesting people should retire in their prime. The man is doing something he loves and getting paid for it which is more than most of us can hope for.0 -
I always hate these threads. Manning should keep playing as long as he is enjoying it. The only caveat to this is I would worry about him getting injured. Should the coaches put him on the field is another question but that is on the coaches and not on Manning.
I always hate these threads suggesting people should retire in their prime. The man is doing something he loves and getting paid for it which is more than most of us can hope for.
Manning is far far removed from his prime. he wont be gone this year, but I cant see him hanging around next year. I think he is too competitive to see himself slip back and not be able to perform.0 -
Manning is far far removed from his prime. he wont be gone this year, but I cant see him hanging around next year. I think he is too competitive to see himself slip back and not be able to perform.
If he's healthy do you think he'll walk away and thus leave $19m on the table? I know he has career earnings of $245m and more money from endorsements alone that he could probably ever spend, but $19m?0 -
To replace Manning with a largely untested QB would be nuts and career suicide for any coach.Manning is far far removed from his prime. he wont be gone this year, but I cant see him hanging around next year. I think he is too competitive to see himself slip back and not be able to perform.
And that is the key point - the decline in Manning has been dramatic and it looks like it will continue. Can Manning recognise this decline or does he believe that he can turn it around?If he's healthy do you think he'll walk away and thus leave $19m on the table? I know he has career earnings of $245m and more money from endorsements alone that he could probably ever spend, but $19m?0 -
Jolly Red Giant wrote: »The remaining year of Manning's contract is not guaranteed. He has to take and pass a team medical in March before the contract kicks in. If Manning doesn't retire he will 'fail' the medical. If Elway knew last March that Manning was going to decline so rapidly and so much I suspect he would have 'failed' that medical as well. It appears that Manning convinced Elway that the decline last season was because of the injury against the Chargers when in fact it was his declining ability due to age.
Presuming he wants to play on, if he's healthy enough he'll pass the medical. It's not as if the Broncos will be able to say "oh look, sorry but you've failed the medical, what a shame that is" and get out of the contract. The Broncos aren't going to play that sort of game as it won't end well for them. He'll have to genuinely be unhealthy enough to fail the medical, though in fairness the way things are going that might actually happen. Who knows how the few months will turn out.
Of course if both parties agree I guess it could be a way out for both that is kind from a PR viewpoint, but with $19m on the line and on the back of a certain playoff berth again this season, I'd be very skeptical that he won't want to return for that farewell money if healthy.0 -
Presuming he wants to play on, if he's healthy enough he'll pass the medical. It's not as if the Broncos will be able to say "oh look, sorry but you've failed the medical, what a shame that is" and get out of the contract. The Broncos aren't going to play that sort of game as it won't end well for them. He'll have to genuinely be unhealthy enough to fail the medical, though in fairness the way things are going that might actually happen. Who knows how the few months will turn out.
Of course if both parties agree I guess it could be a way out for both that is kind from a PR viewpoint, but with $19m on the line and on the back of a certain playoff berth again this season, I'd be very skeptical that he won't want to return for that farewell money if healthy.0 -
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Jolly Red Giant wrote: »Manning is not going to be replaced and no one is suggesting he should be replaced (it is a different question whether the Broncos would still be 5-0 if Os was QB instead of Manning)
Yes you are to be fair. You are saying he should retire therefore go therefor be replaced. Whether that is mid season or the next season it is the same thing.
Why should Manning retire? If he feels good and is still able to play he has every right to play on. Just because Broncos fans are p1ssed off with him doesn't mean he should retire. As for the talk of him ruining his own legacy? BS really it wont affect him at all.
The Broncos system doesn't suit Manning. That doesn't mean he is done though and we will see that if the Broncos don't re-adjust to their QB going forward and he leaves to go to a team that will use his strengths rather than cry about his apparent weaknesses.
He will most likely play next season and if he does leave you can guarantee there will be teams that will give their right nuts to take him and also adjust to his abilities and get a productive season out of him.
As to your original question about the Broncos being 5-0 with Osweiller. How can anyone possibly answer a what if based on hindsights. Osweiller is still an untested QB and there are a lot of factors that play into whether or not you guys would still be 5-0 with him starting.0
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