The Daily bets, Banter & Accumulators thread III

Lasagna Diarra

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Pescara @ 1.53

5 losses in a row and a must-win game to get back into top 8 (ie the promotion play offs)

Real Madrid +1.5 @ 1.55

need to atone for the 4-0 loss at the Bernabeu last time around plus Barcelona have won the past 2 clasicos, neither Barca nor Madrid have won 3 clasicos in a row since 2011

boom x2

Dio On The Doubles

Dio On The Doubles wrote: »

Gone for Dani Alves to be booked @2.5

Also Ronaldo to be booked @3.2

Both on Betfair

Carvajal is very likely to be booked and is available at 1.90 in some bookies. Much prefer the prices on Ronaldo and Mr Alves though. They are no strangers to bookings in El Classico too.

No go on the two lads, asides from the red in the second half the cards petered out after the first half.

Of course Carvajal who I knew would get booked, but ignored was in the book within 20 minutes.

9de5q7tsr8u2im

Leicester v Southampton Over 3.5 Cards
Marseille DC
Ac Milan

5.56

Mr. Green

Mr. Green wrote: »

Barcelona -vs- Real Madrid, Under 3.5 @ 2.080

soon the Champions League

1:2

winner

Lasagna Diarra

Kaiserslautern @ 1.65

retalivity

Gwangju @2.87

Better team, suwon's early season promise to come unstuck

Edit: Sake...1 up with 9 mins to go, they lose 2-1

Lasagna Diarra

Randers DC
Vitoria Setubal +1.5
@ 1.70

both teams are on a 4 game losing streak

inforfun

NEC - Vitesse
Red card > yes @ 4.3

Derby with quite a few reds in the past.

bigboss1986

Long shot today:
Leicester-Southampton over 2.5
Lazio-Roma over 2.5
Marseille win
Treble @ 11.57

Loafing Oaf

Bit on Lukaku to score first, in the second half

JaMarcusHustle

Today's accumulator.

Bilbao win
Leicester/Southampton over 1.5
Borussia Monchennchbchlhcb/Hertha over 1.5
Fiorentina/Sampdoria over 1.5
Eibar/Villareal over 1.5
Sevilla/Sociedad over 1.5
Lukaku anytime

€10 returns €145

Dio On The Doubles

Dio On The Doubles wrote: »

Gone for Dani Alves to be booked @2.5

Also Ronaldo to be booked @3.2

Both on Betfair

Carvajal is very likely to be booked and is available at 1.90 in some bookies. Much prefer the prices on Ronaldo and Mr Alves though. They are no strangers to bookings in El Classico too.

Ronaldo to be be booked @3.2 has since been paid as a winner. Thought it had lost yesterday. Got a surprise logging into my betfair account today.

Checked Flashscore and sure enough he has been marked as booked on the 80th minute. It was never marked by the bookies during the game though.

Anyone on a bookings bet that fell one short I would get on to the bookies.

MattHelders

For some crazy reason today a score draw between Iceland and Greece is better than if either team one. I'll let reddit take over from here

Yes, you read that right. If either team is winning in the last minute, it will actually be preferable for them to score an own goal (or as many own goals as would be necessary for a draw).
How is this possible?
This is going to be a long and complicated explanation but the short version is that UEFA’s rules are seemingly illogical.
Results so far
France 1-0 Greece
Austria 0-0 Iceland
France 1-0 Iceland
Greece 0-0 Austria
Current Standings
Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts Status
1st France 2 2 0 0 2 0 2 6 Qualified
2nd Austria 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 TBD
=3rd Greece 2 0 1 1 0 1 -1 1 TBD
=3rd Iceland 2 0 1 1 0 1 -1 1 TBD
Remaining Fixtures
Today, 15:00 CET: Austria vs France
Today, 15:00 CET: Iceland vs Greece
What happens if Austria beat France?
Austria will qualify for the finals and everything else I’m going to write here will become irrelevant.
Ranking of 2nd-Placed Teams
Only the 7 highest ranked 2nd-placed teams qualify for the finals, here are the current standings:
Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts Status
1st England 2 1 1 0 4 2 2 4 Qualified
2nd Netherlands 2 1 0 1 2 1 1 3 Qualified
3rd Bosnia 2 1 0 1 2 2 0 3 Qualified
4th Sweden 2 1 0 1 1 2 -1 3 Qualified
5th Scotland 2 1 0 1 2 4 -2 3 Qualified
6th Spain 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 Qualified
7th Austria 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 TBD
8th Poland 2 0 1 1 1 2 -1 1 TBD
The key rule to note here is that results against the teams that finished 4th in their group don’t count (I have no idea why) - only results against the teams that finished 1st and 3rd do. This effectively means that if either Greece or Iceland win today they won’t earn any points (or goal difference), since the team they beat will finish 4th in their group.
Each group contained an equal number of teams so there seems to be no reason why results against the 4th-placed teams need to be excluded, unlike (senior) Euro 2016 qualifying where Group I contained one less team than the other eight groups and therefore results against the 6th-placed teams were excluded.
This is how the relevant final rankings would look if either Greece or Iceland win and Austria fail to win:
Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts Status
7th Poland 2 0 1 1 1 2 -1 1 Qualified
8th Greece/Iceland 2 0 1 1 0 1 -1 1 Eliminated
Greece/Iceland would be eliminated on goals scored
What happens if Austria draw with France?
Greece & Iceland will still both be eliminated even though a win will be enough for one of them to overtake Austria and finish 2nd (since that team would finish bottom of the ranking of 2nd-placed teams, as shown above).
What happens if Austria lose to France?
A 0-0 draw between Greece & Iceland will still see both eliminated even if one of them ultimately finishes 2nd in the group, due to Poland’s superior goals scored in the ranking of the 2nd-placed teams.
A score draw between Greece & Iceland will, however, give one of those two sides a chance of finishing 2nd in the group and overtaking Poland. First of all, Austria will finish bottom of the group due to the head-to-head results between the three sides in contention for 2nd place:
Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
=2nd Greece 2 0 2 0 ≥1 ≥1 0 2
=2nd Iceland 2 0 2 0 ≥1 ≥1 0 2
4th Austria 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 2
If this scenario occurs, Greece & Iceland will be completely inseparable and a penalty shoot-out will be used to decide which team finishes 2nd in the group.
If Greece vs Iceland finishes 1-1, the winner of the subsequent penalty shoot-out will then have an identical record to Poland in the ranking of 2nd-placed teams:
Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
=7th Greece/Iceland 2 0 1 1 1 2 -1 1
=7th Poland 2 0 1 1 1 2 -1 1
This means that 7th place in the ranking of the 2nd-placed teams will be determined by disciplinary record in the relevant matches (a yellow card = 1 point, a red card = 3 points and the team with the fewest total points qualifies). If the teams in question are still inseparable, lots will then be drawn to separate them and determine which team takes the final spot at U17 Euro 2016.
If Greece vs Iceland finishes 2-2, 3-3, 4-4, 5-5 etc, the winner of the penalty shoot-out will qualify ahead of Poland on goals scored:
Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts Status
7th Greece/Iceland 2 0 1 1 ≥2 ≥3 -1 1 Qualified
8th Poland 2 0 1 1 1 2 -1 1 Eliminated
In Summary
If - and only if - France beat Austria, either Greece or Iceland could qualify for U17 Euro 2016.
Assuming France do win, it would be in the best interests of both Greece & Iceland to play out a 2-2 draw against each other instead of trying to win, so that they can then face each other in a penalty shoot-out for the final spot at U17 Euro 2016.
The rule which has caused this situation is completely ridiculous (as far as I can tell), but the situation itself is fascinating and also pretty funny. Greece & Iceland have to work together for 80 minutes (they have shorter matches at this level) to give themselves a chance of competing against each other for qualification in a penalty shoot-out. It’s like a two-man breakaway in the Tour de France where the two leaders are from different teams.

A lot of betting sites seem to have removed the market but PP still have it

seanhynes

What's this in a friendly did they not play a few days ago??

Lasagna Diarra

seanhynes wrote: »

What's this in a friendly did they not play a few days ago??

It's some U17 tournament

shmeee

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

It's some U17 tournament

Paddy has just removed the market

MattHelders

shmeee wrote: »

Paddy has just removed the market

Do you reckon they'll void the bets previously placed?

shmeee

MattHelders wrote: »

Do you reckon they'll void the bets previously placed?

I can't see them doing that. On what grounds like?

It's not a "fix", just a result that would benefit both teams.

Anyone get on? I missed it by about 90 seconds

seanhynes

Wish I seen this earlier on FFS.. Card before 20.00 lazio Roma it always lands

MattHelders

shmeee wrote: »

I can't see them doing that. On what grounds like?

It's not a "fix", just a result that would benefit both teams.

Anyone get on? I missed it by about 90 seconds

I dunno just because they cancelled the market. But yeah it's fair game as you say!

Threw money on 1-1, 2-2 and 3-3

magherakid

Leicester v Southampton
Over 1.5 Goals, Over 8.5 Corners and Over 25 Booking Points 6/4

magherakid

seanhynes wrote: »

Wish I seen this earlier on FFS.. Card before 20.00 lazio Roma it always lands

5/6 bet365

fuzzydunlop85

Any lukaku anytime specials today lads? Preferably on PP.

shmeee

Betway just opened up a market on that u17 game and the draw is @ 5/2 with them

markc91

shmeee wrote: »

Betway just opened up a market on that u17 game and the draw is @ 5/2 with them

Gone now is it? cant see it

9de5q7tsr8u2im

anyone think southampton will come back strong in the second half? not sure if leicester can get away with these 1 goal wins again

Lasagna Diarra

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Kaiserslautern @ 1.65

After losing their previous 5 games, Kaiserslautern won 2-0 today

eh i dunno

Man u btts enhanced to 4/1 on pp.

magherakid

magherakid wrote: »

Leicester v Southampton
Over 1.5 Goals, Over 8.5 Corners and Over 25 Booking Points 6/4

goal short, unreal miss from Simpson

inforfun

inforfun wrote: »

Cambuur and Groningen are waiting for you this weekend, Lass.

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Dutch teams go on these loooong losing streaks though so that worries me... Excelsior, Twente, Cambuur, Groningen, Feyenoord (! :P)

inforfun wrote: »

I know and i cant see either of them getting much in their away matches to ADO (Groningen) and De Graafschap (Cambuur)
Last one is do or die both of them.
One for the cards with the right ref.

Well, what do we know...

Cambuur had a draw last night and Groningen just won 1-0 despite being with 10 men for 60/70 minutes.