Mediterranean migrants- specific questions

BuilderPlumber

jmayo wrote: »

As BuildPlumber mentioned in his post certain countries have actually been dragged backwards over the last number of years.
There is a picture on the net of young women in mini skirts on the streets of Kabul in the late 60s or early 70s.
Try and see how long someone would last dressed like that today.

And this brand of fundamentalist hogwash has been imported into Europe.
And it is growing.

Places like Kabul were safe, fun and exotic to visit in the 1960s and 1970s. Afghanistan then was poor but stable. Maybe somewhat like modern day stable African states like Benin or Ghana but even much safer.

The reason was there was no war. 5 major events I blame for the turn to extremism in the Middle East:

1. The Palestinian/Israeli conflict. Israel and Palestine have been at war for years and this has lead to sectarian and racist hatred and leading to extreme leadership in both.
2. The 1975-1990 Lebanese civil war. This was the stomping ground for extremists from all over the area to do what they do best. Of course, it can be seen as an extension of the issues going on in nearby Israel and Palestine.
3. The Iran-Iraq war. The Shah is overthrown, Saddam thinks he can take his place and merge Iraq and Iran into a new Babylon. Extremist forces were among those who gained power in Iran, thus turning its revolution upside down. These extremists took advantage through wartime emergency legislation and the putting aside of differences among Iranians in order to defeat a common, sectarian Sunni enemy. Meanwhile, Saddam's underestimation of Iran got him sucked into an economy wrecking war that set Saddam on his road to invading Kuwait to salvage something which lead to being bad friends with the US and his downfall.
4. The coups, instability and superpower proxy war in Afghanistan. The country's Shah/king was overthrown and replaced by a series of shortlived regimes also ousted by coups. The Soviets invaded to support a communist coup and the West/Saudis organised the resistance, much of which became Taliban and al Qaeda.

Like in all war situations (Khmer Rouge in SE Asia, Nazi excesses in Europe), laws that exercised complete control over the population were enforced and mass atrocities committed by paranoid regimes and rebel groups.

Certain populations in the Middle East (especially in Iraq, Israel/Palestine and Afghanistan) have known nothing EXCEPT WAR. War has been ongoing in Afghanistan since 1979, Israel/Palestine has been more or less in a state of war since the 1940s, and in Iraq since 2003 (with the period 1980-88, 1990-91 and 1998 also being a war time).

Other Middle East leaders are leftovers from their wartime era and while they have proved effective leaders in wartime, they have proven poor in peacetime and just do not 'get' the peacetime experience (Ali Khamenei). More still are just so out of touch (all these corrupt monarchs esp. the House of Saud). But there are high ranking officials in the Middle East (mostly in Iran's government) who know how to run a peacetime country and this shows hope.

Sand

Nodin wrote: »

It will not make them, however, speak the form of Arabic spoken in the region, give them a Syrian accent, idioms of speech and local knowledge.

Most english speaking people cant tell the difference between an Australian and New Zealand accent, to the frustration (worn down to defeated resignation these days) of Kiwis I know. Many people from Britain cant tell the difference between an Irish and a Scottish accent.

I doubt Germans, Austrian, Hungrians, Serbs etc. are overstaffed with Syrian cultural experts. If you've seen what's happening, such is the mass of migrants flowing north into Germany I doubt they even are able to check each persons passport. Let alone deploy local cultural experts to test accents, patterns of speech and local knowledge.

Though I'm a little suspicious that practically every Syrian migrant I've seen interviewed is from Kobane.

Lockstep wrote: »

If you're expecting the Gulf States to be anything other than corrupt and oppressive, you've a very interesting approach to them. Of course they act badly. They're terrible states. Hell, Saudai Arabia is one of the most oppressive in the world.
Except we're democracies, we hold ourselves to much higher standards than countries like this.

Similar to the Gulf States, I'm not sure why you're expecting so much of the Arab League. Only Tunisia is anything approaching a tolerant democracy. The rest vary from terrible to contemptuous.

Lockstep wrote: »

The Arab states are very divided. Assuming they're all the same or even very similar is a very backward viewpoint.

So it would be ignorant to assume the Arab states are all the same or even very similar, except they are all terrible, corrupt states?

Of course, just like I'd have more in common with an Texan evangelical but that doesn't mean we're in any way similar beyond skin colour, language and nominal religion.

You're similar in that you are both shaped by western norms of democracy, liberalism and individuality. Even if sharply disagree with those norms, they shape everything about peoples mindset.

You have vastly more in common with other western citizens than you might imagine. Certainly vastly more than you do with citizens from corrupt, oppressive terrible states who were just as surely shaped by the norms of those society, even if they disagreed with them.

One thing about the Iraq war was that it deposed a corrupt, oppressive, terrible dictatorship. What emerged from the democracy rushed in was not liberal western democracy, instead it was more corrupt, oppressive and terrible brutality and conflict fuelled by the hatreds and fears of the people oppressed for so long. Germany is going to receive 800,000 migrants annually who will ultimately vote and who will have their own political and cultural experience verry divergent to European and German norms which will influence wider German politics and German society. If you doubt that, look at the impact of massive Irish immigration on the politics of New York and Chicago.

I hope it all works out great for all concerned.

Nodin

Sand wrote: »

Most english speaking people cant tell the difference between an Australian and New Zealand accent, to the frustration (worn down to defeated resignation these days) of Kiwis I know. Many people from Britain cant tell the difference between an Irish and a Scottish accent...

... I doubt some random shopper will be dragged off the streets of Croydon to be pressganged into processing Syrians.

Sand wrote: »

I doubt Germans, Austrian, Hungrians, Serbs etc. are overstaffed with Syrian cultural experts. If you've seen what's happening, such is the mass of migrants flowing north into Germany I doubt they even are able to check each persons passport. Let alone deploy local cultural experts to test accents, patterns of speech and local knowledge..

Given the numbers and the speed at which they arrived, immediate detailed processing would hardly have been possible. They will doubtless go through the workload over time.

Sand

Nodin wrote: »

... I doubt some random shopper will be dragged off the streets of Croydon to be pressganged into processing Syrians.



Given the numbers and the speed at which they arrived, immediate detailed processing would hardly have been possible. They will doubtless go through the workload over time.

Or more likely, they'll shrug their shoulders and just accept the facts on the ground. Once tens or hundreds of thousands of people are in the country its fairly hard to start deporting them. Outside the absolute lunatic fringe, even the US Republican party acknowledge that any illegal migrants from Mexico are in the US to stay and the effort is simply to prevent more illegal migration.

The alternative is mass roundups, holding and deportation which absolutely no elected western leader would consider good politics. Merkel was nearly floored by a single 14 year old girl who faced deportation. Let alone week in, week out tens of thousands of sad tales and human empathy painting the faceless politicians as the bad guys.

Nodin

Sand wrote: »

Or more likely, they'll shrug their shoulders and just accept the facts on the ground. Once tens or hundreds of thousands of people are in the country its fairly hard to start deporting them. Outside the absolute lunatic fringe, even the US Republican party acknowledge that any illegal migrants from Mexico are in the US to stay and the effort is simply to prevent more illegal migration.

The alternative is mass roundups, holding and deportation which absolutely no elected western leader would consider good politics. Merkel was nearly floored by a single 14 year old girl who faced deportation. Let alone week in, week out tens of thousands of sad tales and human empathy painting the faceless politicians as the bad guys.

Rather a simplistic and fatalistic picture, particularily the notion that pseudo Syrians are there in such numbers.

Sand

Nodin wrote: »

Rather a simplistic and fatalistic picture, particularily the notion that pseudo Syrians are there in such numbers.

Well argued.

jank

Nodin wrote: »

... I doubt some random shopper will be dragged off the streets of Croydon to be pressganged into processing Syrians.



Given the numbers and the speed at which they arrived, immediate detailed processing would hardly have been possible. They will doubtless go through the workload over time.

How much time? People have been stuck in Direct Provisioning here for years and years much to the disapproval of people like yourself. Once you are 'in' its much more difficult to deport and prove a negative.

bb12

I just watched the documentary "The Shock Doctrine" based on the book written by Naomi Klein and directed by Michael Winterbottom. It's premise is the rise of the free-market and globaslisation being promoted by political leaders worldwide. "These leaders exploit crises to push through controversial exploitative policies while citizens are too emotionally and physically distracted by disasters or upheavals to mount an effective resistance".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=4&v=QxxOIfrtYYY


At the moment the EU is trying to push through the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) agreement between europe and the US. This agreement will basically erode people's rights and the public interest in favour of big business. There has been a lot of opposition to it in europe and when it was being debated earlier in the summer by the eu parliament, the amount of opposition and amendments to it led to the debate being "postponed" for the time being.
(http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/news-room/content/20150610STO65005/html/EP-vote-and-debate-on-TTIP-recommendations-postponed-what%E2%80%99s-next)

Funny how in the weeks after this "setback", the refugee crisis in europe suddenly erupted and reached a new climax. According to the Shock Doctrine, this is exactly how the public are manipulated. Distract them with a crisis on the ground so that other agendas can be pushed through without anyone noticing or caring.

Do youselves a favour and watch the above documentary, only 1hr 18mins and make up your minds. Eye opening stuff.

Lockstep

Sand wrote: »

So it would be ignorant to assume the Arab states are all the same or even very similar, except they are all terrible, corrupt states?

Not necessarily as they vary a fair amount. I wouldn't like to live in any of them, but they're not as bad as each other. Tunisia is a free country, others like Kuwait are less so while Saudi Arabia is right at the bottom.
A secular Arab nationalist state like Egypt is very different form a theocracy like Saudi Arabia. This is something a lot of people seem to miss out on. Syrians grew up under an oppressive but secular state and the origins for the civil war are democracy protests in 2011. And yet, listening to the media nowadays, you'd think all the Syrians are frothing bigots, desperate to impose Sharia law.

Sand wrote: »

You're similar in that you are both shaped by western norms of democracy, liberalism and individuality. Even if sharply disagree with those norms, they shape everything about peoples mindset.You have vastly more in common with other western citizens than you might imagine. Certainly vastly more than you do with citizens from corrupt, oppressive terrible states who were just as surely shaped by the norms of those society, even if they disagreed with them.

Eh, even the Evangelicals calling for the reintroduction of torture, a ban on homosexuality and the death penalty for
Sorry, being from a particular country doesn't automatically make you more tolerant or even more open to new ideas.

There are still the organised religious right in the US seeking to dismantle LGBT rights and abortion law while far right groups get elected in Europe. Hell, it was only a few generations ago that tolerant European democracies turned to outright fascism and imperialism. We're just as susceptible to this as they are.
This is a new form of euro-centrism I haven't encountered before so I'd be interested to hear you expand on this.

Sand wrote: »

Germany is going to receive 800,000 migrants annually who will ultimately vote and who will have their own political and cultural experience verry divergent to European and German norms which will influence wider German politics and German society. If you doubt that, look at the impact of massive Irish immigration on the politics of New York and Chicago.

Yeah, it's not like Germans ever had to take in huge numbers of people with a completely different political and cultural system and were raised under totalitarianism rather than tolerant democracy.
Ah wait...

Wurzelbert

Lockstep wrote: »

[...]
Yeah, it's not like Germans ever had to take in huge numbers of people with a completely different political and cultural system and were raised under totalitarianism rather than tolerant democracy.
Ah wait...

are you seriously suggesting a comparison between the german situation after 1989 and the current situation? even reunification didn’t happen without major problems, despite the fact that those folks were germans with the same language and cultural background and all…

Nodin

jank wrote: »

How much time? People have been stuck in Direct Provisioning here for years and years much to the disapproval of people like yourself. Once you are 'in' its much more difficult to deport and prove a negative.

I've no idea. I imagine they will though, as having survived two world wars, 12 million refugees, partition and re-unification, they seem to be able to organise themselves when need be.

Lockstep

Wurzelbert wrote: »

are you seriously suggesting a comparison between the german situation after 1989 and the current situation? even reunification didn’t happen without major problems, despite the fact that those folks were germans with the same language and cultural background and all…

Yes, and Germany managed to integrate them fairly well. And that was assimilating 15 million less people of what Germany is proposing to welcome now, as well as the GDR's decripit economy and social system.

Having a common language is about the only thing they shared. Are you honestly trying to argue that they had a common culture after decades living in completely polarised systems (And that's apart from the fact that both the GDR and the FRG were effectively built from ground zero in the aftermath of WWII)

gallag

Man look at the state of Croatia! The horde don't even care that the police are there! The police man just gives up. Probably just an indication of the tribal wars that Europe are inviting.

http://m.liveleak.com/view?i=822_1442576379

Wurzelbert

Lockstep wrote: »

[...]
Are you honestly trying to argue that they had a common culture after decades living in completely polarised systems[...]

absolutely, and not even trying to argue, really just telling you because i know…40 years in two different political systems side by side did not erase the cultural foundation of the german nation…there have been many germans who lived in three, four or even five different political systems in germany in the 20th century and were still germans in the end, and the young generation is basically indistinguishable in east and west…i have known many of the old generation and i know countless younger germans from east and west, i know germany, i am german and i was there when reunification happened…the whole comparison of that and the current migrant situation just does not work at all…

jmayo

Ok this is trending elsewhere and it apepars to be show exactly what these "refugees" want.

So much for ayslum and protection.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHhOOPSwnMA

Also it looks like the Germans, after turning the states in South Eastern Europe into frontline battleground as per their usual history, now want to use the EU to bully other states.

http://www.ekathimerini.com/201664/article/ekathimerini/news/germany-says-eu-majority-vote-may-force-members-to-take-migrants

The other thing that jumps out and only one person (afaik and then they were lambasted as per usual) has made reference to it are the numbers involved or rather the breakdown of the numbers involved.

According to some sources over 70% of the "refugees" are young adult males.
Where are all the women and children ?
The Hungarian spokesman this morning alluded to the fact the young guys used the women and children as human shields after of course they had tried to bludgeon their way into a country.
Of course the media get more airtime showing a kid crying or a woman throwing up from teargas.

The other very interesting source (IOM) put the number of actual Syrians at approx 40% of the number that has crossed the Med.

through two and a half weeks of September, IOM teams have recorded total arrivals to Europe by sea in 2015 at 473,887 men, women and children. At least 182,000 of those migrants have arrived from Syria—making Syrians just under 40 per cent of this year’s total. In 2014, Syrians comprised between 25 per cent and 33 per cent of those entering Europe by sea.

The International Organisation for Migration ...

Established in 1951, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) is the leading inter-governmental organization in the field of migration and works closely with governmental, intergovernmental and non-governmental partners.

With 127 member states, a further 17 states holding observer status and offices in over 100 countries, IOM is dedicated to promoting humane and orderly migration for the benefit of all. It does so by providing services and advice to both governments and migrants.

Wurzelbert

jmayo wrote: »

Ok this is trending elsewhere and it apepars to be show exactly what these "refugees" want.

So much for ayslum and protection.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHhOOPSwnMA

[...]

at least these guys are being honest…”the salary for the refugees”…worrying stuff…

ancapailldorcha

I don't see how the people in that short clip are meant to represent most refugees.

jmayo

In one fell swoop Mekel has turned the EU from an area with free movement of people into a mess with borders popping back up.

Sweden is supposedly allowing "refugees" go through to Finland because they want the better benefits.
As seen in my linked clip above, Denmark will be shifting them onto Sweden.
Croatia is trying to shift the ones already there onto Hungary and stop more arriving.
Hungary had been moving them to Germany, but German states put a stop to that.

Macedonia, Serbia, Greece, Italy have also been trying to shift the "refugees" they have onto someone else.

jmayo

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't see how the people in that short clip are meant to represent most refugees.

I could counter argue that the crying children and pregnant women being pushing down everyone's throat by certain interests don't represent most "refugees".
Likewise with assertion that they are all fleeing war in Syria.
In fact afaik there are the numbers to prove it.

Lockstep

jmayo wrote: »

According to some sources over 70% of the "refugees" are young adult males.
Where are all the women and children ?

Not sure where you're getting your sources that over 70% are young adult males. Until a few days ago, the latest UNCHR figures placed 72% of the asylum seekers as male, but there's no indication of their age. So not sure where your "young adult" claim come from.
At the time of writing, it's now 69%.

At any rate, this is nothing new. Even back in 1989, Armatya Sen found that given the dangers posed by reaching a country to claim asylum, it's typical for refugees to send on their men first in the hope they'll get refugee status and then be able to send for their families. The gender and age divide of Syrians in refugee camps in the Middle East and North Africa is very even, but given the dangers and high costs involved in reaching Europe, it makes sense for the men to head first.

jmayo wrote: »

The Hungarian spokesman this morning alluded to the fact the young guys used the women and children as human shields after of course they had tried to bludgeon their way into a country.
Of course the media get more airtime showing a kid crying or a woman throwing up from teargas.

Hungary is trying to justify their actions, I'd take their government's justifications with a pinch of salt.

jmayo wrote: »

The other very interesting source (IOM) put the number of actual Syrians at approx 40% of the number that has crossed the Med.

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights reports that 51% are Syrian While 14% are Afghani and 8% are Eritrean. That's nearly three quarters of refugees being from countries with a very valid reason for asylum.

Lockstep

Wurzelbert wrote: »

absolutely, and not even trying to argue, really just telling you because i know…40 years in two different political systems side by side did not erase the cultural foundation of the german nation

Citation needed.

Wurzelbert wrote: »

there have been many germans who lived in three, four or even five different political systems in germany in the 20th century and were still germans in the end, and the young generation is basically indistinguishable in east and west…i have known many of the old generation and i know countless younger germans from east and west, i know germany, i am german and i was there when reunification happened…the whole comparison of that and the current migrant situation just does not work at all…

Considering that when Germany reunified, those old enough to remember life before the Third Reich would be in their 70s, you're making a very weak argument as to similarities when reunification happened, especially when generations of Germans grew up under completely different political and cultural systems.

gobsh!te

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't see how the people in that short clip are meant to represent most refugees.

Can you show a clip showing refugees going to Sweden for another reason?

I can provide more clips showing refugees saying they go to Sweden for welfare.

jmayo

Lockstep wrote: »

Not sure where you're getting your sources that over 70% are young adult males. Until a few days ago, the latest UNCHR figures placed 72% of the asylum seekers as male, but there's no indication of their age. So not sure where your "young adult" claim come from.
At the time of writing, it's now 69%.

Maybe it is something to do with all the pictures I am seeing of young adult males kicking up that they aren't allowed through to certain states so that they can pick up welfare. :rolleyes:

Lockstep wrote: »

Hungary is trying to justify their actions, I'd take their government's justifications with a pinch of salt.

Of course you would.
How dare they not let everyone that turns up at their border into their country.
I suppose the Croats haven't a right to protect their borders either.

Do you leave your door open at night on the oft chance some homeless person is walking by?
And if you don't then would you mind explaining why not please.

Lockstep wrote: »

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights reports that 51% are Syrian While 14% are Afghani and 8% are Eritrean. That's nearly three quarters of refugees being from countries with a very valid reason for asylum.

And I bet there are all from Kobane as well.

Nodin

gobsh!te wrote: »

Can you show a clip showing refugees going to Sweden for another reason?

I can provide more clips showing refugees saying they go to Sweden for welfare.

jmayo wrote:

something to do with all the pictures I am seeing of young adult males kicking up that they aren't allowed through to certain states so that they can pick up welfare.......

I'm sure you can. I can show clips that "prove" everything from masonic conspiracies to the world being run by a secret council of Jews. No one will be any better informed for either of our efforts.

Wurzelbert

Lockstep wrote: »

Citation needed.


Considering that when Germany reunified, those old enough to remember life before the Third Reich would be in their 70s, you're making a very weak argument as to similarities when reunification happened, especially when generations of Germans grew up under completely different political and cultural systems.

maybe you should write a book on germany and all of that

ancapailldorcha

Wurzelbert wrote: »

maybe you should write a book on germany and all of that

There's no need for this sort of comment at all. Cut it out.

K-9

Mod:

The tone of the thread is getting a bit liveliney, if people want to make huge generalisations about refugees, this isn't the forum for it.

Also, keep it on topic please. Secret plans is more for conspiracy theory. Also, debate the point at hand, do not bring up other political leanings. There's plenty to debate without bringing other political stuff into it.

gallag

K-9 wrote: »

Mod:

The tone of the thread is getting a bit liveliney, if people want to make huge generalisations about refugees, this isn't the forum for it.

Also, keep it on topic please. Secret plans is more for conspiracy theory. Also, debate the point at hand, do not bring up other political leanings. There's plenty to debate without bringing other political stuff into it.

This post, along with davs anti right post here....

" We didn't suddenly start banning Right Wing opinion, Right Wing opinion has become dangerously extremist because the rest of the world has become a more tolerant place."

Along with the thread closers in AH and the cafe sort of make me feel anything against the left agenda of all migrants are poor refugees that are peace loving and only wanting safety will not be tolerated. Is this now the stance?

I suppose I am a extremist now because I have right wing views, seriously wtf is that?

Lockstep

jmayo wrote: »

Maybe it is something to do with all the pictures I am seeing of young adult males kicking up that they aren't allowed through to certain states so that they can pick up welfare. :rolleyes:

So basically, you've no evidence that the majority are young men. You were right that (until recently) over 70% of asylum seekers arriving in Europe were men but but it sounds like you're just trying to find things to fit your preformed opinions.
Before its civil war, Syria was a middle income country with an educated population. Today's Economist highlights the skillset of Syrians and that their correspondent met numerous Syrian professionals within minutes of arriving at a Budapest train station.
Are you honestly claiming that they're risking their lives just to sit on the dole based on one interview?

jmayo wrote: »

Of course you would.
How dare they not let everyone that turns up at their border into their country.
I suppose the Croats haven't a right to protect their borders either.

Do you leave your door open at night on the oft chance some homeless person is walking by?
And if you don't then would you mind explaining why not please.

Don't try and move the goalposts. If you're going to try and argue that Hungarian security forces were only using teargas against women and children because they were being used as human shields, you'd need to provide a more objective source than a spokesperson for the reflexively anti-immigration Orban government. They're hardly going to admit they acted negligently, are they?

jmayo wrote: »

And I bet there are all from Kobane as well.

Possibly. The UNHCR figures show that the vast majority are coming from countries where they have a valid reason for claiming asylum.

K-9

gallag wrote: »

This post, along with davs anti right post here....

" We didn't suddenly start banning Right Wing opinion, Right Wing opinion has become dangerously extremist because the rest of the world has become a more tolerant place."

Along with the thread closers in AH and the cafe sort of make me feel anything against the left agenda of all migrants are poor refugees that are peace loving and only wanting safety will not be tolerated. Is this now the stance?

I suppose I am a extremist now because I have right wing views, seriously wtf is that?

Mod:

It's simple really, posts like this is the real reason refugees are coming, welfare are massive generalisations, sane with the hordes of violent, unruly masses type stuff.

There's a way of describing the real issues currently without basically calling them all welfare scroungers.

They are below the standard expected in the forum, There's a discussion on the rules thread in the main politics forum if you want to give feedback.