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The return of the season long €20k challenge
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Cheers Kerosene. Yes it has a really good chance of coming in. Bookie would only take half my stake so it's for €10k but couldn't complain if that came in
I tried to add a picture of the hat trick hero to the above post but it was massive so I left it out. Maybe best to leave those things until the end anyway!
I was checking about those Easter games for Adam Armstrong. He is gonna miss two, and one of those is against Colchester at home who have the worst defensive record in the football league. That could be vital!
He'll play three games for England U19s so maybe will need a rest before and after also, on orders from Newcastle. Winall, Sharp and Madden are the other dangers.
Need Plymouth to cement their position in top 3 as they've been quite inconsistent lately...0 -
Well that was an interesting weekend to say the least! Seeing Ajose's name come up three times on the Sky Sports vidiprinter was very sweet indeed, especially since Coventry were not playing and Armstrong could not score!
Then tonight I got the chance to watch Southend play for the first time, and win at home to the league leaders! That was a huuuuge win for this bet.
This weekend has certainly been the best for this season's selections, and they continue to head in the right direction as we will see with the odds update:
Ajose Part 1 - for €10k
Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 4.5
Burnley - Championship Top 6 @ 1.67 -> 1.03
Plymouth Argyle - L2 Promotion @ 1.57 -> 1.60
Dundee Utd - Finish Bottom of SPL @ 1.80 -> 1.12
Total odds 160.46 -> 8.3
Potential winnings €10k
Feb - for €19k
Southend - L1 Top 6 Finish @ 9.0 -> 5.0
Monaco - Ligue 1 Top 3 Finish @ 1.5 -> 1.15
Carpi - Serie A Relegation @ 1.44 -> 1.22
Villarreal - La Liga Top 4 Finish @ 1.61 -> 1.25
Burnley - Champ Top 6 Finish @ 1.17 -> 1.03
Florida Panthers - NHL Atlantic Division Winners @ 3.6 -> 2.34
Total odds: 131.83 -> 21.13
A win for Plymouth away to Yeovil would go down a treat tomorrow night. I still think they are hevily overpriced because of Portmouth (reputation only).
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Yes, a beautiful free kick into the top corner from Ajose tied him at 19-19 with Armstrong at the top.
A few years ago, when I was waiting on Shane Long to complete one of these accumulators for about €25k he missed a pen with about 5 games to go, and was taken off them for the rest of the season. Hopefully now it will be the opposite - with this goal from Ajose hopefully he will take all the free kicks (he is not the regular taker) and that could mean a vital goal or two in the win column.
Disturbingly for that bet, Dundee Utd won 3-0 away and closed the gap on second bottom to 8 points with a game in hand. Not such a dead cert now, as they are in very good form and have a pretty handy run in. Bookies don't know how to price it and the odds are very different with bookmaker.
Southend's crazy inconsistency continued and they lost away from home again. They have two handy home games next and need 6 points or they will be too far behind.
Panthers also not in great form and now only two points clear in their division.
With all that said, and before a new round of games tomorrow, here are the updated odds of the two best accumulators.
Ajose Part 1 - for €10k
Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 3.0
Burnley - Championship Top 6 @ 1.67 -> 1.01
Plymouth Argyle - L2 Promotion @ 1.57 -> 1.5
Dundee Utd - Finish Bottom of SPL @ 1.80 -> 1.4
Total odds 160.46 -> 6.36
Potential winnings €10k
Feb - for €19k
Southend - L1 Top 6 Finish @ 9.0 -> 6.5
Monaco - Ligue 1 Top 3 Finish @ 1.5 -> 1.17
Carpi - Serie A Relegation @ 1.44 -> 1.33
Villarreal - La Liga Top 4 Finish @ 1.61 -> 1.33
Burnley - Champ Top 6 Finish @ 1.17 -> 1.01
Florida Panthers - NHL Atlantic Division Winners @ 3.6 -> 2.4
Total odds: 131.83 -> 32.6
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With 1 point from 3 very winnable games after beating the league leaders, Southend have thrown away any chance of getting into the top 6, so that accummuator is now a no go. Florida Panthers have also been faltering, but it provided very good value for money, getting below 30/1 at one point I think.Pretty quiet thread for me so far this year, and that's because the bets have been performing pretty averagely so far. They are all still in with a shout, but not looking likely at all. The reason for the update this morning is to add in November accumulator, so here it is:
Vardy Top Prem Scorer @ 9.0
Doncaster League 1 relegation @ 4.33
Exeter League 2 Top 7 finish @ 7.0
Stake: €90 @ 272.79
Potential winnings €24,550
Vardy is top by 4, Doncaster in the relegation zone and Ezxeter 3 points off the top 7 despite a sh1tload of injuries.
Not a bad little treble there at all!
However.... what the gambling gods taketh with one hand, they giveth with the other.... The above quoted accy from November is not actually looking that bad anymore! Doncaster haven't won in 9, Vardy is still top and even though Exeter are still outsiders in 14th they have lost only one of their last five and are 5 points off 7th.
Aguero and Lukaku both missed penalties today too, so I'm defo gonna keep an eye on those three selections.
Ajose didn't play today as Swindon's game was postponed. Armstrong didn't score, although he had one ruled out for offside. Winnall missed Barnsley's win with an ankle injury. Don't know how serious that is.
Will be shouting for Vardy now on Sky
Edit to add: Bet365 have Exeter to finish top 7 @ 40/1. Seems very generous!0 -
Well it turns out Adam Armstrong had two goals disallowed on Saturday. One was indeed offside but the second one looked onside. I would be livid if that happened to Ajose so I'll have to mark that down as a big positive.
Burnley are no doubt going to finish top 6, but Dundee Utd and Plymouth are both keeping me a little nervous. It would be so painful to see a 33/1 shot come in and be let down by one of the odds on selections. Still confident I'll be grand with both of those though.
The most recent acca barely got a mention as it started of poorly and got worse from there. Ah well!
The recent results for Exeter, getting 7 points from their last 9, means that Ajose Part 2 and the Doncater/Vardy/Exeter treble are semiäback on the table.
Pretty quiet Tuesday night football tomorrow night and in the meantime here are the updated odds:
Ajose Part 1 - for €10k
Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 2.88
Burnley - Championship Top 6 @ 1.67 -> 1.0
Plymouth Argyle - L2 Promotion @ 1.57 -> 1.61
Dundee Utd - Finish Bottom of SPL @ 1.80 -> 1.33
Total odds 160.46 -> 6.17
Potential winnings €10k
Ajose Part 2
Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 2.88
Exeter City - L2 Top 7 Finish @ 8.00 -> 42.0
Total odds: 272.0 -> 120.96
To win £7,0720 -
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A long time without an update here as I've been travelling with work. I have been keeping up to date with all things related to the bet, and it's been a very mixed bag. As the lads above said, Ajose is now clear at the top of the L1 goalscorers chart by one goal. Armstrong hasn't scored in 6 and was (as hoped) called up to the England U19 squad. He will miss two of the last 9 games for Coventry. Ajose will play 10 games (barring injury). That puts him in a very strong position!
All good so? Nope! Plymouth have dropped from 1st place to 4th place after a really poor second half to the season. The weekend before last they blew a 1-0 lead to Accrington in the last few minutes to lose 2-1 and lost 1-0 again last weekend. That was heavily odds on and is now a 2/1 shot as Bristol Rovers are in excellent form
Dundee United are also closing the gap all the time on Kilmarnock (lost to a last minute goal, while Dundee United equalised with a last minute goal)
I would be seriously bitter if the Ajose bet comes in and Plymouth or Dundee United let me down!
Exeter are also still in good form but there's so many teams between them and 7th place that it's gonna require an epic run to get to 7.
Odds update as follows:
Ajose Part 1
Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 2.63
Burnley - Championship Top 6 @ 1.67 -> 1.0
Plymouth Argyle - L2 Promotion @ 1.57 -> 3.0
Dundee Utd - Finish Bottom of SPL @ 1.80 -> 1.2
Total odds 160.46 -> 9.47
Potential winnings €10k
Ajose Part 2
Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 2.63
Exeter City - L2 Top 7 Finish @ 8.00 -> 46.0
Total odds: 272.0 -> 120.98
To win €9k0 -
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Great day today! Swindon were walloped 4-1 at home to Wigan, but that man Nicky Ajose scored the only goal! Took his chance very well.
Shortly before that he was denied by a beautiful save from 41 year old Jussi Jaaskelainen, from a free kick that was sailing into the top corner.
Thanks-be-to-god that Plymouth finally won a game! The teams around them all won, except for Oxford so it was a vital win away to Morecombe. More good news was that they re-signed a centre midfielder from Crystal Palace (Boateng) that was on loan with them earlier in the season and was apparently a huge player for them (68% win ratio with him, and only 38% without him).
Exeter drew at home again, so their chances of getting into the playoffs are gone, and any glimmer of hope for Southend died with their 4-1 defeat to Rochdale 0 -
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Bit of a mad day yesterday. Armstrong was rested and only played 30 mins with no goal again. Ajose scored again and hit the bar, and is now three clear! A late and strong finisher scored two yesterday, Will Grigg of Wigan who are playing very well now. He is also 3 behind. Can either of Grigg or Armstrong score 3 or more in their last 6 games? Possible, but I'm confident that even if they do Ajose will get at least a couple himself. Strong favourite now.
The big game for me yesterday was Exexter v Plymouth (Devon derby). Both of these selections needed wins to stay in contention for the playoffs (Exeter) and the auto promotion spots (Plymouth). With Plymouth having a more realistic chance of achieving their goal, I was shouting for them as it was gonna be difficult for Exeter to finish top 7 even with a win. Plymouth dominated the game, went 1-0 up, but lost to two goals from nowhere.
Plymouth are now back out of the autos, but Exeter are now only 2 points off 7th place! The emotions were all over the place with that game. I think a draw probably would have been the worst result anyway.
Bad news from Scotland where Dundee Utd picked up more points on Kilmarnock. They won 1-0 away to a top 6 side and played with 10 men for 30 minutes A poster above mentioned that they're not good enough to go on a run of results, but they are already on a run which is good enough to keep them up. They are now 5 points behind with a game in hand (Tuesday). They need to lose that!
I'm looking forward to totting up the odds tomorrow when they are all updated, especially now that Exeter are not total long shots (Even the Vardy, Doncaster, Exeter treble is still semi-on).0 -
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Lots went on this weekend. A mix of good and bad. Exeter have now reached the top of the form charts in League 2 and incredibly are level on points with Wimbledon and Wycome for that last playoff spot. They always say that there's always one team that comed from nowhere to get into the playoffs. Hopefully Exeter can be that team in L2.
The big result I was looking for went the wrong way. Plymouth again seemed to be unlucky to lose, this time to Wimbledon with another late goal. They are now 3 behind the automatics, with Oxford (win), Accrington (win) and Bristol R (draw against top) all picking up good results
More bad news came with Ajose remaining injured and Grigg scoring to close the gap to two with 5 to play. He also had a peno saved so I suppose I should be happy with that result. Ajose should be back next weekend.
Dundee Utd now should be almost confirmed to be relegated after a 3-0 Killy win, while they lost at home, so that actually leaves me with three doubles. Yes, three after that legend Vardy banged in two today!
November
Vardy Top Prem Scorer @ 9.0 -> 3.3 (one behind Kane)
Doncaster League 1 relegation @ 4.33 -> 1.07
Exeter League 2 Top 7 finish @ 7.0 -> 7.0
Stake: €90 @ 272.79 -> 24.71
To win €24,550
Ajose Part 1
Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 1.8
Burnley - Championship Top 6 @ 1.67 -> WIN
Plymouth Argyle - L2 Promotion @ 1.57 -> 3.8
Dundee Utd - Finish Bottom of SPL @ 1.80 -> 1.03
£50 @ 160.46 -> 7.0
To win £8,023
Ajose Part 2
Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 1.8
Exeter City - L2 Top 7 Finish @ 8.00 -> 7.0
£26 @ 272.0 -> 12.6
To win £7,072
Ideal scenario... Ajose stays as L1 top scorer, Exeter squeeze into playoffs, but are beaten to promotion by Plymouth, and Vardy overtakes Kane. 40k+
Worst case scenario, Ajose is overtaken by Grigg and Exeter fail to keep their form up and finish outside the playoffs, while Plymouth continue their poor form and get knocked out in the playoffs. Big fat zero!0 -
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Another exciting weekend of ups and downs. I had a game myself at 4pm so spent the pre match checking the scores sporadically, and then was able to go through my twitter feed to catch up on the games one by one. That should be the last time I'll be preoccupied on a Saturday afternoon...
The highlight had to be Plymouth scoring two late goals to come from behind to win away to Portsmouth. A huuuuge win, meaning they still have a chance at automatic promotion. Important in terms of points and morale. Could be a big moment for that bet.
That said, the other part of it is under serious threat as Will Grigg scored again. He is in amazing form now, but Wigan have a tough set of fixtures remaining, and he is still one behind Ajose who is back from injury (but didnt score).
The other majorly important selection is Exeter. They were home to the best team in the league (Northampton) and drew 0-0. Exeter hit the inside of the post and the crossbar, but apparantly it was a fair result. Could be considered good for the bet, but Wimbledon scored late to beat Crawley and go 2 points clear with a game in hand. It's theirs to throw away now.
Drama in the Championship too as 'boro scored two injury time winners in the space of one week to put them in a very strong position. I watched them on Sat morning against Bolton and they were awful, but playing badly and winning is normally how teams win leagues Brighton won 5-0 on Friday, but probably too far behind to come back and win the league.
Lastly, Vardy got off to a cracking start today, bagging a goal to go joint top in the big 25k double (with Exeter) but then got sent off for diving! Will miss the Swansea game now and doubtful he will come out on top (Aguero is back in the mox now after a hat trick)
So it was drama all round, but probably more negatives than positives this week, but the odds update will reveal all tomorrow!
Lots of games on Tuesday! 0 -
Bet 1
Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 1.73 -> 2.1
Plymouth Argyle - L2 Promotion @ 3.8 -> 2.75
Odds: 6.57 -> 5.78
To win €10,000
Bet 2
Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 1.73 -> 2.1
Exeter City - L2 Top 7 Finish @ 7.5 -> 13.0
Odds: 12.98 -> 27.3
To win €8,800
Bet 3
Vardy Top Prem Scorer @ 3.3 -> 5.0
Exeter League 2 Top 7 finish @ 7.5 -> 13.0
Odds: 24.75 -> 65
To win €24,500
Bet 4
Brighton - Championship Winner @ 9.0 -> 11
Exeter City - L2 Top 7 Finish @ 7.5 -> 13.0
Odds: 67.5 -> 143
To win €10,300
A lot more red there than I was expecting!
The only one to shorten was the one most likely to win, so I'm happy with that. If Grigg scores less than 2 goals in his last three games, that bet will go all the way to the playoffs at least
Can't wait for tomorrow night. Getting great value for money here.0 -
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If Grigg scores less than 2 goals in his last three games, that bet will go all the way to the playoffs at least
Can't wait for tomorrow night. Getting great value for money here.
Would grigg not win it on a tie breaker if he scores one without reply? Is assist the tie breaker or minutes?0 -
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