2015/16 EPCR draw, Wednesday 17 June 1:15pm Irish time

thomond2006

Top 14
RC Toulon, ASM Clermont Auvergne, Toulouse, Stade Français Paris, Racing Metro 92, Oyonnax, Bordeaux Bègles

Aviva Premiership
Northampton Saints, Bath Rugby, Leicester Tigers, Saracens, Exeter Chiefs, Wasps

Guinness PRO12
Glasgow Warriors, Munster Rugby, Ospreys, Ulster Rugby, Leinster Rugby, Scarlets, Benetton Treviso

Champions Cup Pool Draw key principles
- The 20 clubs which have qualified on merit from the Aviva Premiership, Top 14 and Guinness PRO12 leagues, and/or the Champions Cup play-offs, will compete in the 2015/16 European Rugby Champions Cup in five pools of four.
- The clubs are divided into four tiers based on their qualification position in their leagues. Tier 1 will contain the three league champions and two of the losing finalists from the leagues. This will be done by a draw in advance of the main pool draw.
- Each pool will have at least one club from each of the three leagues.
- Each of the five pools will have one club from each of the four tiers.
- There will be no more than two clubs from the same league in a pool.
- No pool will contain two PRO12 clubs from the same country.
- Clubs from the same league will be kept apart until the allocation of the Tier 4 clubs.

http://www.epcrugby.com/europeanrugbychampionscup/news/30955.php#.VWt9m89Viko

In terms of qualified teams, there has been four changes. Sale Sharks, Harlequins, Montpellier and Castres are out and Wasps, Stade Francais, Oyonnax and Bordeaux Begles are in.

Twitter wrote:

#ChampionsCup Tiers:
T1 3 x Champs + 2 finalists
T2 3 x Rank 3 + (1 finalist + 1 Rank 4 same league)
T3 2 x Rank 4 + 3 x Rank 5
T4 Rest

We know that Tier 1 will be Glasgow, Saracens, Top14 Champions and two of Munster, Bath and Top14 runners up. After today we also know Tier 4 will be Wasps, Bordeaux Begles, Oyonnax, Scarlets and Treviso. Wasps are definitely the team to avoid there IMO.

Given the final bullet point, if Munster get into Tier 1 then it gives them a great chance of drawing Benetton Treviso from Tier 4. At least, that's how it looks to me! The French still have to playoff their semi-final and final to determine their Tier positions. Toulouse play Clermont and Toulon play Stade Francais, both matches taking place in Bordeaux.

total former

I can't see how Munster have a better chance of getting Treviso than anyone else?

thomond2006

total former wrote: »

I can't see how Munster have a better chance of getting Treviso than anyone else?

Well Munster would have to get an English and French team from Tiers 2 and 3. Maybe that doesn't help...

Edit: Yup, it doesn't. There doesn't appear to be any restrictions on who you can draw from Tier 4. Oh well. Thanks TF.

total former

thomond2006 wrote: »

Well Munster would have to get an English and French team from Tiers 2 and 3. Maybe that doesn't help...

Edit: Yup, it doesn't. There doesn't appear to be any restrictions on who you can draw from Tier 4. Oh well. Thanks TF.

I feel bad now for crushing your hope.

thomond2006

total former wrote: »

I feel bad now for crushing your hope.

Hah! At least there's no Biarritz to take an Italian team every season!

Assuming Munster get into Tier 1, a possible 'good' pool would be Stade Francais, Exeter and Treviso. I'd love to see us get Racing with the possibility of going to see Dan Carter live! He won't be the player he was but still a legendary player.

vienne86

While I would love a trip to Bordeaux, presumably their group would have to contain a second French team as well.

Would probably do an away leg to Bordeaux for any of the Provinces tbh.

ArmaniJeanss

None of the Irish teams can draw Glasgow or Ospreys then. Probably not a good thing on balance, the alternatives are likely to be better (seems almost disrespecful to Glasgow to say this but you know)
Also Ospreys can't get Scarlets from Pot4, which therefore means each Irish team has an above average chance of getting Scarlets.

thomond2006

Toulon are now a second seed, as they are losing semifinalists but finished top of the league. It just shows how the change to seedind via league performance changes everything. Under the ERC rankings Toulon would have had a top seed in the bank for a few years.

Cookiemunster

thomond2006 wrote: »

Toulon are now a second seed, as they are losing semifinalists but finished top of the league. It just shows how the change to seedind via league performance changes everything. Under the ERC rankings Toulon would have had a top seed in the bank for a few years.

I now hope that Munster are the losing second place team and end up as second seed :-)

thomond2006

#ChampionsCup Tiers:
T1 3 x Champs + 2 finalists
T2 3 x Rank 3 + (1 finalist + 1 Rank 4 same league)
T3 2 x Rank 4 + 3 x Rank 5
T4 Rest

So hopefully I have this right. I'm separating losing semi-finalists and losing quarter-finalists (Top 14) on the basis of their league position.

Tier 1:
Clermont or SF + Glasgow Warriors + Saracens + two of Clermont or SF/Munster/Bath

Tier 2:
One of Clermont or SF/Munster/Bath + Toulon + Ospreys + Northampton + one of Toulouse/Leicester/Ulster (same league as losing finalist in Tier 2)

Tier 3:
Two of Toulouse/Leicester/Ulster + Racing Metro + Leinster + Exeter Chiefs

Tier 4:
Oyonnax + Scarlets + Treviso + Wasps + Bordeaux Begles

So assuming Clermont win the Top14, these are possible tiers:

Tier 1: Clermont + Glasgow Warriors + Saracens + Munster + Bath

Tier 2: Stade Francais + Toulon + Ospreys + Northampton + Toulouse

Tier 3: Leicester + Ulster + Racing Metro + Leinster + Exeter Chiefs

Tier 4: Oyonnax + Scarlets + Treviso + Wasps + Bordeaux Begles

Given these rules...
- There will be no more than two clubs from the same league in a pool.
- No pool will contain two PRO12 clubs from the same country.
- Clubs from the same league will be kept apart until the allocation of the Tier 4 clubs.

A Munster, Toulouse, Exeter Chiefs and Treviso pool is possible?

...or a Munster, Toulon, Leicester, Wasps pool!

Neil3030

Tier 2 is a beast. Ospreys will probably get a kinder group than Munster.

molloyjh

So Bath, Toulouse, Leinster & Treviso would work for me.....

thomond2006

molloyjh wrote: »

So Bath, Toulouse, Leinster & Treviso would work for me.....

Bath, Toulon, Leinster and Bordeaux would work for me.

Neil3030

Bath, Stade, Lesinter and the swashbuckling Treviso probably gives the neutral the most attractive group

sydneybound

In fairness the new seeding makes the pools far more interesting. Clermont, Toulon, Leinster and Wasps would be fun... Equally Munster, Toulon, Leicester and Bordeaux.

I think Treviso and Oyonnax (after losing their head coach and star 10 who kicked them to victory so much will be fighting for survival) will be the two east teams.

molloyjh

sydneybound wrote: »

In fairness the new seeding makes the pools far more interesting. Clermont, Toulon, Leinster and Wasps would be fun... Equally Munster, Toulon, Leicester and Bordeaux.

I think Treviso and Oyonnax (after losing their head coach and star 10 who kicked them to victory so much will be fighting for survival) will be the two east teams.

Can't have that Clermont, Toulon, Leinster, Wasps pool. If a French team is picked from 1st seed and a Pro12 from 3rd seed then an Emglish club needs to be the 2nd seed. So we could see Saracens, Toulon, Leinster, Wasps for example. Or Clermont, Northampton, Leinster, Wasps.

molloyjh

thomond2006 wrote: »

Bath, Toulon, Leinster and Bordeaux would work for me.

Swap out Toulon for Toulouse and that would actually be a great list of away trips!

Wang King

Munster, Toulouse, Leicester and Bordeaux would sort a nice few "business" trips for me tyvm!

thomond2006

molloyjh wrote: »

Can't have that Clermont, Toulon, Leinster, Wasps pool. If a French team is picked from 1st seed and a Pro12 from 3rd seed then an Emglish club needs to be the 2nd seed. So we could see Saracens, Toulon, Leinster, Wasps for example. Or Clermont, Northampton, Leinster, Wasps.

Basically the only Pro12 sides the Irish provinces can draw, regardless of tiers they end up in, are Scarlets and Treviso from Tier 4.

vienne86

molloyjh wrote: »

Swap out Toulon for Toulouse and that would actually be a great list of away trips!

Delicious! I'd need to start saving now!

molloyjh

vienne86 wrote: »

Delicious! I'd need to start saving now!

I'd need a lotto win tbh! I've been to Bordeaux but still haven't made it to Bath or Toulouse despite the various opportunities over the years. That said all I saw of Bordeaux was the Connemara pub and the stadium....

Riskymove

Cookiemunster wrote: »

I now hope that Munster are the losing second place team and end up as second seed :-)

If SF win this weekend then being a tier 2 team would mean avoiding Toulon and Clermont as well as possibly Toulon/Leicester

It would certainly be worth being in tier 2 in those circumstances

Riskymove

Leinster face the problem Munster faced last year by being in Tier 3

They are likely to end up in the group of death!!;)

Sarries and Toulon anyone?

thomond2006

Tier 1:
Stade Francais + Glasgow Warriors + Saracens + two of Clermont/Munster/Bath

Tier 2:
One of Clermont/Munster/Bath + Toulon + Ospreys + Northampton + one of Toulouse/Leicester/Ulster (same league as losing finalist in Tier 2)

Tier 3:
Two of Toulouse/Leicester/Ulster + Racing Metro + Leinster + Exeter Chiefs

Tier 4:
Oyonnax + Scarlets + Treviso + Wasps + Bordeaux Begles

connemara man

Could leinster get Toulon Saracens and wasps?

thomond2006

connemara man wrote: »

Could leinster get Toulon Saracens and wasps?

Yes

Wasps have to be drawn with another English club. Bordeaux Begles and Oyonnax have to draw another French.

connemara man

thomond2006 wrote: »

Yes

Wasps have to be drawn with another English club. Bordeaux Begles and Oyonnax have to draw another French.

That group would be worth a sky subscription

And be completely mental

Dave_The_Sheep

molloyjh wrote: »

So we could see Saracens, Toulon, Leinster, Wasps for example. Or Clermont, Northampton, Leinster, Wasps.

No. Thank you, but no.

Digifriendly

connemara man wrote: »

That group would be worth a sky subscription

Could be shown on BT sports instead.

connemara man

Digifriendly wrote: »

Could be shown on BT sports instead.

Ah well the pub it is lol

vienne86

connemara man wrote: »

Ah well the pub it is lol

A lot of the BT coverage look like it takes place in a pub rather than a studio!

total former

Just looking at the tiers - damn I hope we (Leinster) get Stade as our top seed. Getting Bath would be OK as top seed but it would mean that second seed would have to be Clermont, Toulouse or Toulon. Drawing Saracens as top seed is the nightmare scenario.

Ideal draw for Leinster is; Stade, Leicester, Treviso. Not easy but workable.

There are a few permutations in which it might actually suit Munster better to be drawn as second seeds, their ideal draw is maybe Stade, Exeter, Treviso.

Ulster on the other hand really need to be in the second seeds (33% chance). Ideal draw is as for Munster, nightmare is the same as Leinster - Saracens, Toulon/Clermont, Wasps.

aimee1

total former wrote: »

Just looking at the tiers - damn I hope we (Leinster) get Stade as our top seed. Getting Bath would be OK as top seed but it would mean that second seed would have to be Clermont, Toulouse or Toulon. Drawing Saracens as top seed is the nightmare scenario.

Ideal draw for Leinster is; Stade, Leicester, Treviso. Not easy but workable.

There are a few permutations in which it might actually suit Munster better to be drawn as second seeds, their ideal draw is maybe Stade, Exeter, Treviso.

Ulster on the other hand really need to be in the second seeds (33% chance). Ideal draw is as for Munster, nightmare is the same as Leinster - Saracens, Toulon/Clermont, Wasps.

Bath, Toulouse and any 4th seed wouldnt be that bad

molloyjh

aimee1 wrote: »

Bath, Toulouse and any 4th seed wouldnt be that bad

Bath, Toulouse and Bordeaux. Manageable and 3 great trips to boot for those who will travel.

I'd buy that for a dollar!

total former

aimee1 wrote: »

Bath, Toulouse and any 4th seed wouldnt be that bad

That wouldn't be too bad, but if Bath are drawn as Leinster's top seeds, there is only a 17% chance that Toulouse would be our second seed, a 17% chance that it would be Clermont and a 67% chance it would be Toulon.

So, erm, no thanks.

If Bath get top seed, then there is a 50% chance that Clermont will get the other top seed of the runners-up. If that happens, then Toulouse automatically drop into tier three and cannot play Leinster. There is therefore a 50% chance that Toulon will be the only French team in tier two (again, if Bath are top seed).

If Munster get the second top seed, then both Clermont and Toulouse go into tier two, and it will then be (1/3 x 50%) chance as to which of them we get, i.e. 16.7% each, so if we get Bath as top seed, the overall probability of Toulon as second seed is 50 + 16.7 = 66.7%

vienne86

This is head wrecking!

I presume the draw is on TV - Sky Sports, or what?

Edit: OK, I see it's on Sky and BT.

irishbucsfan

total former wrote: »

That wouldn't be too bad, but if Bath are drawn as Leinster's top seeds, there is only a 17% chance that Toulouse would be our second seed, a 17% chance that it would be Clermont and a 67% chance it would be Toulon.

So, erm, no thanks.

If Bath get top seed, then there is a 50% chance that Clermont will get the other top seed of the runners-up. If that happens, then Toulouse automatically drop into tier three and cannot play Leinster. There is therefore a 50% chance that Toulon will be the only French team in tier two (again, if Bath are top seed).

If Munster get the second top seed, then both Clermont and Toulouse go into tier two, and it will then be (1/3 x 50%) chance as to which of them we get, i.e. 16.7% each, so if we get Bath as top seed, the overall probability of Toulon as second seed is 50 + 16.7 = 66.7%

This sort of thing definitely requires Emmet verification

irishbucsfan

The more French teams in the group, the more likelihood games will be on Sky Sports. Some people might be excited by that possibility!

total former

irishbucsfan wrote: »

This sort of thing definitely requires Emmet verification

It comes with the total former guarantee of authenticity. That's money in the bank right there.

sydneybound

Not sure why they are doing the draw on the same day the football Premiership fixtures are announced. Meaning the draw will get even less coverage in the UK than it would normally get.

exiledelbows

Final's in Lyon according to Telegraph, and could be a double header with CC final.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/european-rugby/11679982/Champions-Cup-final-to-be-held-in-Lyon-in-2016.html

Akrasia

sydneybound wrote: »

Not sure why they are doing the draw on the same day the football Premiership fixtures are announced. Meaning the draw will get even less coverage in the UK than it would normally get.

People that care will find out either way

total former

exiledelbows wrote: »

Final's in Lyon according to Telegraph, and could be a double header with CC final.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/european-rugby/11679982/Champions-Cup-final-to-be-held-in-Lyon-in-2016.html

This bit is interesting:

The selection of Stade des Lumières would represent a bold choice for the tournament organisers, who are also poised to announce a raft of radical changes at the draw at their headquarters in Neuchatel, Switzerland

What could they be announcing?

RuggieBear

total former wrote: »

This bit is interesting:



What could they be announcing?

saracens and bath have bye to home semi finals...?

irishbucsfan

total former wrote: »

This bit is interesting:



What could they be announcing?

They're shutting down the whole thing and starting a new organisation based out of Dublin called "Extreme Rugby Crowd", it's going to be run equally by the Unions and the participants will have less individual control. A progressive move, and I for one certainly welcome it.

Akrasia

Start your speculation engines!

Me, I've got nothing.

A ban on the choke tackle?

.ak

total former wrote: »

This bit is interesting:



What could they be announcing?

Hopefully re-scheduling.

Akrasia

Flubber to be implemented in newly designed rugby ball

exiledelbows

total former wrote: »

This bit is interesting:



What could they be announcing?

I read it as the double header and the change of date.

No matter what the changes are, I promise to dislike them.