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Derby 2015
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Now Bear with me i know this is long and im probably waffling away to beat the band (I should be studying currently instead
)
And thanks for coming back to me on it i really appreciate it and i find it a really interesting discussion.
So the great influences for speed that are in a large number of pedigrees these days are ignored - Danehill, Green Desert etc,
Also ive noticed when your coming back with a lot of this analysis your having to adapt the DI for most of these horses based on other factors that DI is not accounting for ie what the mothers DI is or being by a speed sire. If they are a speed sire then surely they should be included as a Chef de race on the Brilliant level (or another group added (Cheap Speed)) and thereby have a weight towards what the DI of an individual should be and this is what i was getting at, if you ignore a horse in a pedigree such as a Danehill or a Green Desert are you not just ignoring a major genetic component of what is going in to the make up of the individual horse based on them not being on Dr Romans Chef de race list.
Also what if Dr Romans has got it wrong on certain Chef de Race in that they are actually capable of getting horses over a multitude of distances which has been shown by for instance Cape Cross in modern day (probably never going to be a Chef de race). Also by ignoring certain lesser stallions that appear in pedigrees throughout the course of breeding history your also ignoring the genetic influence that they are having on the stock for instance i know from looking at pedigrees that a horse like Sing or Absalom are a major influence for increasing the speed in a horse but because they do not show up in a large number of pedigrees they are ignored as having no influence on what is coming about from a mating.
The other problem i have which you seem to include for yourself when your explaining why certain horses appear to run in a particular way is that the female genetic influence exerted by dams throughout the pedigree of theses horses is ignored - and yes i know that Dr Romans says that they are accounted for by including Chef de races that appear on the the dam side but it does ignore the aspect that the mares may have ran over a different distance or that a specific dam line family is more orientated towards speed or stamina in difference to the dams sires own DI and ideal difference, also this as you have illustrated above completely changes what the progeny of a certain mare run over in comparison to the runners own personal DI.
When dosage appears to not suit the horses known track ability and distance of running it appears to be adapted by having to add in extra data like such and such a horse was by a sire who was a 2.86 DI so thats why they didnt stay or their mother had a DI of X figure greater that 3 because it was by an american sire, well that frankly just seems to me as revisionist the system either works or it doesnt, it either accounts for what has been seen on the racetrack or it doesnt, it cant just be a case of well that horse there changed the pedigree so thats why its DI is screwed up, DI is supposed to have accounted already for that horse and yet the calculation is messed up - then the system doesnt really work.
For instance from a pedigree point of view its quite clear why those sprinters were sprinters and why those stamina horses were stamina horses based on the sires they were by and the mares they were out of (even though alot of them are not on the chef de race list) with out taking into regard their DI, and to bring it back to the derby its quite clear why they are derby horses they show stamina in their work at home and on the racetrack. For instance the Derby Field -
I had this horse down where he is normally in the betting but really i think he shows why im not a fan of DI and the problems with it
Moheet - High Chaparral ex Abunai (Pivotal) - DI 0.68 - More than likely the entire dam side is being ignored by the Chef de Race list which will orientate the DI to out and out staying, i would from a pedigree standpoint hazard a guess that he might be more orientated towards speed, in fact from a DI perspective the calculation will only take into account Sadlers Wells (Classic/Staying), Shirley Heights (Classic/Professional), Nureyev (Classic) and Northern Dancer (Brilliance/Classic) and ignore Neartic, Bold Reason, Kris, Cozzene, Known Fact, Lomond, Warning, Polar Falcon, Darshaan and Pivotal, and this i suppose highlights the issue with DI that i have, this is an outstanding bunch of sires that have influenced pedigrees for years and all of them have been ignored as they are not on the Chef de Race list. Infact i find it interesting that Neartic the sire of Northern Dancer isnt on the Chef List but his son is even though every single pedigree that northern dancer is in so also is Neartic.
After that the horses this is the rest of them in the betting from coral - by sires statistical winning distance of Progeny Skip them all if you find it unimportant
Golden Horn - Cape Cross ex Fleche D'Or (Dubai Destination) DI 1.75 - Sire has 101 winners at 5-6F, 299 winners 7-9F, 127 winners 10-11f and 127 winners 12-13F so Cape Cross can get horses at a multitude of distances.
Zawraq - Shamardal ex Sundis (Sadlers Wells) - DI 1.24 - Sire has 82 winners 5-6F, 157 winners 7-9F, 48 winners 10-11F, 16 winners 12-13F Can get horses at a multitude of distances but more orientated towards speed despite Zawraqs DI and his own of 1.72.
Jack Hobbs - Halling ex Swains Gold (Swain) - DI 1.18 - Sire has 25 winners at 5-6F, 124 winners at 7-9F, 97 winners at 10-11F, 72 winners at 12-13F, Def more towards Staying but still capable of getting a 5-6F winner which just shows the madness of DI as if Halling (DI 0.71) who i would consider an out and out staying sire can get winners over the shortest distances anything can happen.
Elm Park - Phoenix Reach ex Lady Brora (Dashing Blade) - DI 1.18 - Sire has 3 winners 5-6F, 8 winners 7-9F, 4 winners 10-11F, 4 winners 12-13F, More towards milers but capable of all distances despite DI 3.00.
Giovanni Canaletto - Galileo (Derby Winner) ex Love Me True (Kingmambo) - DI 1.05 - Sire has 8 winners at 5-6F, 253 winners at 7-9F, 225 winners at 10-11F, 171 winners at 12-13F, def milers to stayers but im interested that their slightly more orientated to less that 12F,
Hans Holbein - Montjeu (Irish and French Derby winner) ex Lila (Shirley Heights) - DI 0.48 - Sire has 3 winners at 5-6F, 130 winners at 7-9F, 148 winners at 10-11F, 108 winners at 12-13F, Sire cant get speed horses but even spread of winners from 7 - 13F, i would consider him an out and out staying sire myself so interesting the 130 winners at miler distances. The First true stayer in the race in my opinion but if its good ground may get caught for a kick but could grind it out on pedigree.
Highland Reel - Galileo ex Hveger (Danehill) - DI 1.20 - Sire see above. Adding Danehill in would orientate it more towards speed but up to dam i suppose.
Kilimanjaro - High Chaparral (Derby Winner) ex Middle Persia (Dalakhani) - DI .71 - Sire has 9 winners at 5-6F, 83 winners at 7-9F, 61 winners at 10-11F, 43 winners at 12-13F, Orientated more towards Milers and 10F horses which is interesting for a son of Sadlers wells less prolific at 12f so although the i would say that the sire must have a speed influence coming in from somewhere that is being passed to his progeny although the Dalakhani should allow him to stay like a tank.
Skipping Grey Lion and Sir Isaac Newton as both are same as Highland Reel Galileo ex on Danehill.
Best of Times - Dubawi ex Nabati (Rahy) - DI 1.67 - Sire has 60 5-6F winners, 160 7-9F winners, 52 10-11F winners, 37 12-13F winners, Sire more towards milers and interesting even spread over the rest although poor for true staying, my opinion top class sire who's horses can win at 12f by class rather than staying ability which is how i view the derby the last while horses with class win it rather than true stayers.
Christophermarlowe - Tapit ex Dress Rehearsal (Galileo) - DI 2.20 - First american sire and straightaway messed up DI, winning distance 50 percent 7-9F, 25 percent 9-10F, 15 percent 5-6F, 10 percent 12-13F, Definite more middle distance but even then capable of getting speed horses and staying horses.
Consort - Lope De Vega (French Derby) ex Mundus Novus (Unbridled's Song) - DI 2.33 - Sire has 10 winners at 5-6F, 11 winners 8-9F, 1 winner 10-11F, no winners higher. He was first season last year so the stats are all over the place at the minute till his 3 year olds show their distances.
Aloft - Galileo ex Dietrich (Storm Cat) - DI 1.22 - see the above Galileo stats.
Others that arent by sires ive already gone through that are interesting (ie not Galileo and High Chaparral and Shamardal) are
Nafaqa - Sir Percy (Derby Winner) ex Maghya (Mujahid) - DI 1.86 - Sire has 15 winners 5-6F, 42 at 7-9F, 32 at 10-11F, 23 at 12-13f. More towards milers but capable at all distances.
Intilaaq - Dynaformer ex Torrestrella (Orpen) - DI 1.55 - Sire has 40 percent 11-13F, 25 percent 9-10F, 25 percent 7-8F, 8 percent 14F plus, 2 percent 5-6F,
True Staying sire one of the first along with Montjeu despite this horses DI.
Peterhof - Dansili ex Spinning Queen (Spinning World) - DI 2.00 - Sire has 89 5-6f winners, 233 7-9F, 108 10-11F, 74 12-13F winners, spread across all distances with a bias towards 7-9F winners. Top class sire at all distances.
Epicuris - Rail Link ex Argumentative (Observatory) - DI 2.20 - Sire has 4 5-6F winners, 20 7-9F winners, 12 10-11F winners, 18 12-13F winners even spread but more to milers and 12F horses.
Storm the Stars - Sea the Stars ex Love me Only (Sadlers Wells) - DI 1.11, Sire has 1 5-6F winner, 28 7-9F winners, 15 10-11F winner, 13 12-13 furlong winners. Staying sire in my mind although he does has a bias towards 7-9F when views statistically.
Anyhow there ends all my bull**** and yeah i can see that there is some value to DI but that it is def an incomplete way of viewing a horses pedigree. I just found it interesting that despite the DI most of the sires of theses horses get horses over all distances with the bias being more towards 7-9F (the increase in commercial breeding relative to private breeding increasing the need for speed), but i would hazard a guess that nearly all of these will stay the required distance or at least be capable of doing it at a level and if that is the case and its a good ground track i wouldnt be shocked that its not one of the out and out stayers but more so the horse with pure class (Golden Horn
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Now Bear with me i know this is long and im probably waffling away to beat the band (I should be studying currently instead)
And thanks for coming back to me on it i really appreciate it and i find it a really interesting discussion.
So the great influences for speed that are in a large number of pedigrees these days are ignored - Danehill, Green Desert etc,
Also ive noticed when your coming back with a lot of this analysis your having to adapt the DI for most of these horses based on other factors that DI is not accounting for ie what the mothers DI is or being by a speed sire. If they are a speed sire then surely they should be included as a Chef de race on the Brilliant level (or another group added (Cheap Speed)) and thereby have a weight towards what the DI of an individual should be and this is what i was getting at, if you ignore a horse in a pedigree such as a Danehill or a Green Desert are you not just ignoring a major genetic component of what is going in to the make up of the individual horse based on them not being on Dr Romans Chef de race list.
Also what if Dr Romans has got it wrong on certain Chef de Race in that they are actually capable of getting horses over a multitude of distances which has been shown by for instance Cape Cross in modern day (probably never going to be a Chef de race). Also by ignoring certain lesser stallions that appear in pedigrees throughout the course of breeding history your also ignoring the genetic influence that they are having on the stock for instance i know from looking at pedigrees that a horse like Sing or Absalom are a major influence for increasing the speed in a horse but because they do not show up in a large number of pedigrees they are ignored as having no influence on what is coming about from a mating.
The other problem i have which you seem to include for yourself when your explaining why certain horses appear to run in a particular way is that the female genetic influence exerted by dams throughout the pedigree of theses horses is ignored - and yes i know that Dr Romans says that they are accounted for by including Chef de races that appear on the the dam side but it does ignore the aspect that the mares may have ran over a different distance or that a specific dam line family is more orientated towards speed or stamina in difference to the dams sires own DI and ideal difference, also this as you have illustrated above completely changes what the progeny of a certain mare run over in comparison to the runners own personal DI.
When dosage appears to not suit the horses known track ability and distance of running it appears to be adapted by having to add in extra data like such and such a horse was by a sire who was a 2.86 DI so thats why they didnt stay or their mother had a DI of X figure greater that 3 because it was by an american sire, well that frankly just seems to me as revisionist the system either works or it doesnt, it either accounts for what has been seen on the racetrack or it doesnt, it cant just be a case of well that horse there changed the pedigree so thats why its DI is screwed up, DI is supposed to have accounted already for that horse and yet the calculation is messed up - then the system doesnt really work.
For instance from a pedigree point of view its quite clear why those sprinters were sprinters and why those stamina horses were stamina horses based on the sires they were by and the mares they were out of (even though alot of them are not on the chef de race list) with out taking into regard their DI, and to bring it back to the derby its quite clear why they are derby horses they show stamina in their work at home and on the racetrack. For instance the Derby Field -
I had this horse down where he is normally in the betting but really i think he shows why im not a fan of DI and the problems with it
Moheet - High Chaparral ex Abunai (Pivotal) - DI 0.68 - More than likely the entire dam side is being ignored by the Chef de Race list which will orientate the DI to out and out staying, i would from a pedigree standpoint hazard a guess that he might be more orientated towards speed, in fact from a DI perspective the calculation will only take into account Sadlers Wells (Classic/Staying), Shirley Heights (Classic/Professional), Nureyev (Classic) and Northern Dancer (Brilliance/Classic) and ignore Neartic, Bold Reason, Kris, Cozzene, Known Fact, Lomond, Warning, Polar Falcon, Darshaan and Pivotal, and this i suppose highlights the issue with DI that i have, this is an outstanding bunch of sires that have influenced pedigrees for years and all of them have been ignored as they are not on the Chef de Race list. Infact i find it interesting that Neartic the sire of Northern Dancer isnt on the Chef List but his son is even though every single pedigree that northern dancer is in so also is Neartic.
After that the horses this is the rest of them in the betting from coral - by sires statistical winning distance of Progeny Skip them all if you find it unimportant
Golden Horn - Cape Cross ex Fleche D'Or (Dubai Destination) DI 1.75 - Sire has 101 winners at 5-6F, 299 winners 7-9F, 127 winners 10-11f and 127 winners 12-13F so Cape Cross can get horses at a multitude of distances.
Zawraq - Shamardal ex Sundis (Sadlers Wells) - DI 1.24 - Sire has 82 winners 5-6F, 157 winners 7-9F, 48 winners 10-11F, 16 winners 12-13F Can get horses at a multitude of distances but more orientated towards speed despite Zawraqs DI and his own of 1.72.
Jack Hobbs - Halling ex Swains Gold (Swain) - DI 1.18 - Sire has 25 winners at 5-6F, 124 winners at 7-9F, 97 winners at 10-11F, 72 winners at 12-13F, Def more towards Staying but still capable of getting a 5-6F winner which just shows the madness of DI as if Halling (DI 0.71) who i would consider an out and out staying sire can get winners over the shortest distances anything can happen.
Elm Park - Phoenix Reach ex Lady Brora (Dashing Blade) - DI 1.18 - Sire has 3 winners 5-6F, 8 winners 7-9F, 4 winners 10-11F, 4 winners 12-13F, More towards milers but capable of all distances despite DI 3.00.
Giovanni Canaletto - Galileo (Derby Winner) ex Love Me True (Kingmambo) - DI 1.05 - Sire has 8 winners at 5-6F, 253 winners at 7-9F, 225 winners at 10-11F, 171 winners at 12-13F, def milers to stayers but im interested that their slightly more orientated to less that 12F,
Hans Holbein - Montjeu (Irish and French Derby winner) ex Lila (Shirley Heights) - DI 0.48 - Sire has 3 winners at 5-6F, 130 winners at 7-9F, 148 winners at 10-11F, 108 winners at 12-13F, Sire cant get speed horses but even spread of winners from 7 - 13F, i would consider him an out and out staying sire myself so interesting the 130 winners at miler distances. The First true stayer in the race in my opinion but if its good ground may get caught for a kick but could grind it out on pedigree.
Highland Reel - Galileo ex Hveger (Danehill) - DI 1.20 - Sire see above. Adding Danehill in would orientate it more towards speed but up to dam i suppose.
Kilimanjaro - High Chaparral (Derby Winner) ex Middle Persia (Dalakhani) - DI .71 - Sire has 9 winners at 5-6F, 83 winners at 7-9F, 61 winners at 10-11F, 43 winners at 12-13F, Orientated more towards Milers and 10F horses which is interesting for a son of Sadlers wells less prolific at 12f so although the i would say that the sire must have a speed influence coming in from somewhere that is being passed to his progeny although the Dalakhani should allow him to stay like a tank.
Skipping Grey Lion and Sir Isaac Newton as both are same as Highland Reel Galileo ex on Danehill.
Best of Times - Dubawi ex Nabati (Rahy) - DI 1.67 - Sire has 60 5-6F winners, 160 7-9F winners, 52 10-11F winners, 37 12-13F winners, Sire more towards milers and interesting even spread over the rest although poor for true staying, my opinion top class sire who's horses can win at 12f by class rather than staying ability which is how i view the derby the last while horses with class win it rather than true stayers.
Christophermarlowe - Tapit ex Dress Rehearsal (Galileo) - DI 2.20 - First american sire and straightaway messed up DI, winning distance 50 percent 7-9F, 25 percent 9-10F, 15 percent 5-6F, 10 percent 12-13F, Definite more middle distance but even then capable of getting speed horses and staying horses.
Consort - Lope De Vega (French Derby) ex Mundus Novus (Unbridled's Song) - DI 2.33 - Sire has 10 winners at 5-6F, 11 winners 8-9F, 1 winner 10-11F, no winners higher. He was first season last year so the stats are all over the place at the minute till his 3 year olds show their distances.
Aloft - Galileo ex Dietrich (Storm Cat) - DI 1.22 - see the above Galileo stats.
Others that arent by sires ive already gone through that are interesting (ie not Galileo and High Chaparral and Shamardal) are
Nafaqa - Sir Percy (Derby Winner) ex Maghya (Mujahid) - DI 1.86 - Sire has 15 winners 5-6F, 42 at 7-9F, 32 at 10-11F, 23 at 12-13f. More towards milers but capable at all distances.
Intilaaq - Dynaformer ex Torrestrella (Orpen) - DI 1.55 - Sire has 40 percent 11-13F, 25 percent 9-10F, 25 percent 7-8F, 8 percent 14F plus, 2 percent 5-6F,
True Staying sire one of the first along with Montjeu despite this horses DI.
Peterhof - Dansili ex Spinning Queen (Spinning World) - DI 2.00 - Sire has 89 5-6f winners, 233 7-9F, 108 10-11F, 74 12-13F winners, spread across all distances with a bias towards 7-9F winners. Top class sire at all distances.
Epicuris - Rail Link ex Argumentative (Observatory) - DI 2.20 - Sire has 4 5-6F winners, 20 7-9F winners, 12 10-11F winners, 18 12-13F winners even spread but more to milers and 12F horses.
Storm the Stars - Sea the Stars ex Love me Only (Sadlers Wells) - DI 1.11, Sire has 1 5-6F winner, 28 7-9F winners, 15 10-11F winner, 13 12-13 furlong winners. Staying sire in my mind although he does has a bias towards 7-9F when views statistically.
Anyhow there ends all my bull**** and yeah i can see that there is some value to DI but that it is def an incomplete way of viewing a horses pedigree. I just found it interesting that despite the DI most of the sires of theses horses get horses over all distances with the bias being more towards 7-9F (the increase in commercial breeding relative to private breeding increasing the need for speed), but i would hazard a guess that nearly all of these will stay the required distance or at least be capable of doing it at a level and if that is the case and its a good ground track i wouldnt be shocked that its not one of the out and out stayers but more so the horse with pure class (Golden Horn)
The DI is very fallible for a number of obvious reasons, it is operated on a chef de sire methodology where the average winning distance of a chef de sire's stock is taken as an indication of the ability of that stallion's stock to stay a trip. In a country like the USA where the opportunities for the progeny of a top stallion to run over staying distances is extremely limited you will not get a true reflection of that sires ability to get staying stock because most races take place over non staying distances. The likes of our 2 mile flat stayers who make up a significant portion of a top middle distance stallions stock wouldn't be racking up those quantities of staying wins in the US. Our stayers are capable of winning at a lesser level over shorter trips if they had to run in them.
So the US stock DIs are skewed towards implying an inability to stay which hasn't been actually been tested.
The DI is correct in identifying that a horse is the sum of its pedigree parts, it's a little flawed in measuring those parts.
But where it matters is in identifying a horse's likely ability to operate at the very highest level. Staying 12f in races like the Epsom Derby is a completely different staying proposition than winning a 12f 0-80 handicap at Ripon or even a 2 mile handicap.
The Derby is at the Olympic level of elite ability, a lung bursting staying race at an early stage of a horse's development. Which is why you'll see the top 12f stallion lines dominating it again and again. The stats below from the Epsom Derby show how important staying blood is in the Derby. Remember all those placed horses down the years at high prices with low DIs while behind them ran any amount of nice fancied 10f types who run out of puff at Epsom.Dosage Index Of Derby winners.
2014 1st Australia DI 1.00, 2nd Kingston Hill DI 0.90, 3rd Romsdal DI 0.74.
2013 1st Ruler Of The World DI 1.05, 2nd Libertarian DI 0.65, 3rd Galileo Rock DI 0.78.
2012 1st Camelot DI 0.68, 2nd Main Sequence DI 2.20, 3rd Astrology DI 1.00.
2011 1st Pour Moi DI 0.57, 2nd Treasure Beach DI 0.89, 3rd Carlton House DI 1.00.
2010 1st Workforce DI 1.00, 2nd At First Sight DI 1.00, 3rd Rewilding DI 1.33.
2009 1st Sea The Stars DI 3.00, 2nd Fame And Glory DI 0.52, 3rd Masterofthehorse DI 0.77.
2008 1st New Approach DI 0.89, 2nd Tartan Bearer DI 0.60, 3rd Casual Conquest DI 0.68.
2007 1st Authorized DI 0.62, 2nd Eagle Mountain DI 1.12, 3rd Aqaleem DI 1.09.
2006 1st Sir Percy DI 0.54, 2nd Dragon Dancer DI 0.74, 3rd Dylan Thomas DI 1,55.
2005 1st Motivator DI 1.04, 2nd Walk In The Park DI 0.62, 3rd Dubawi DI 1.20.
The Chef De Race sires should be installed more quickly and perhaps the DI is in major need of revamp. How do you deal with Sea The Stars DI 3.00 as a stallion who doesn't actually get sprinting/miler stock like his DI would imply? The answer lies in the multi generational Chef De Sire approach where STS isn't actually imparting high sprinter/miler type DIs to his stock AFAICS. There's more than the immediate stallion or dam's DI at work which evens things out.
It will be interesting to see if Frankel's 10-12f DI expresses itself in his stock or whether his and his Dams actual speed is passed on. My money is on Frankel being an 8-12f influence with very few of his stock having the speed he or his dam had.
I like your approach with the Sires winners distances. Getting your own chef de race slant in is good but fallible. See Sadler's Wells Derby flops due to stamina limitations despite his own superb record.
What you're looking for are patterns with a sire and balance. Realistically Hans Holbein is too stamina laden to win at Epsom, but it's worth looking at each horse in great depth to see how their DI compares with their actual pedigree. Plus a horse has to be good enough to win, their DI won't make them magically good.
There's an excellent Nick Mordin book with chapters on the subject in the link below, it's working for me anyways.
https://books.google.ie/books?id=79q_peU8Kq4C&pg=PA79&lpg=PA79&dq=sadler%27s+wells+chef+de+race+points&source=bl&ots=UZE5mSAgzn&sig=3c8lv8e2KdMC5eQsM5kXmJu-3oA&hl=en&sa=X&ei=NqVYVeDVGa2R7Aarn4HgDg&ved=0CCcQ6AEwAQ#v=onepage&q=sadler%27s%20wells%20chef%20de%20race%20points&f=false
I'll digest this year's Derby pedigrees, don't want to spend all day today on the computer.:)
Just to address the Danehill, Green Desert type horses. Danehill started as a sire of precocious 2yos and sprinter/milers and his stock were bred and trained to excel at those distances. He made his name in Australia, land of the sprinter. He wasn't that speedily bred with a DI 1.89 having a US bred Dam with a DI of 1.10. He was treated as a European Danzig DI 4.71, you could count the number of top Danzig 12f horses on one hand. It took a bit of time for Danehill's ability to sire middle distance horse to become apparent and then he showed his class, interestingly enough he only struck once in the Epsom Derby with the moderate North Light and I don't think he had an Epsom Oaks winner, yet he had no problem siring multiple top class GP1 12f horses.
Epsom's 12f for a 3yo in June is a different kettle of fish to other tracks as the season and horses progress.
Green Desert was a different type of stallion, he was bred to be a sprinter/miler with a DI 3.73 and unlike the awesome stallion Danehill he lacked the ability to sire a production line of top 10-12f horse. He got a lot of high quality staying types mares sent to him, but he didn't really have the staying goods as a sire to compliment those pedigrees.0 -
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There's been a lot of talk about D Weld's Zawraq for the Derby.
I wouldn't normally consider a Weld horse for the Derby ( he had 2 beaten favourites in it in the past ) , but I like the way this lad has been prepared. He's been really laid out for the Derby and Weld is at his best IMO when he sends a horse straight to a big race without exposing it in a big trial he seems to often hit the target.
There's the problem of his pedigree his being by Shamardal who has no 3yo GP1 12f winner to his name never mind a Derby quality one. He does have a GP1 12f winning 4yo Baltic Baroness who also won a 10 1/2f GP1 as a 3yo and who is out of a Sadler's Wells mare just like Zawraq is and Shamardal has the 10 1/2f French Derby winner Lope De Vega and Mukhadram who won an Eclipse and finished 3rd in the King George over 12f, but that was as an older horse..
Looking at his DI of 1.24 you'd think he'd a chance but would baulk at the Shamardal sire.
So given that the stamina needs to come from the Dam to counteract the Shamardal speed. I had a look at his Dam's progeny.
Atraas ( by Kings Best ) DI 1.13 never ran over further than 8f and was moderate anyway.
Ghusoon ( by Red Ransom ) DI 1.45 only ran 3 times from 10 - to 10.5f as a 3yo and finished 3rd behind 2 future GP1 fillies in a maiden.
Mustadaam ( by Dansili ) DI 1.48 ran at 12f twice and won once at 10f finished racing as a 3yo.
Tafool ( by Green Desert ) DI 2.04 never ran over 8.5f.
Unmoothaj ( by Green Desert ) DI 2.04 ran mostly at 10f and won once at 10f, never raced over 12f.
On balance he'll likely stay 12f, he's also the best of his Dams progeny so that'll be a great help in staying.
He just needs to be good enough.
Looking further back in his pedigree, his Dam's Dam is Sarayir a Mr Prospector half sister to 2,000 Guineas and Derby winner Nashwan out of the blue hen broodmare Height Of Fashion who produced a host of other top class horses such as Unfuwain, Nayef and a clatter of GP placed others. Sarayir is also the Dam of 1,000 Guineas winner Ghanaati who is by Shamardal's sire Giant's Causeway. Sarayir has also produced a Cumberland Lodge 12f winner MAWATHEEQ DI of 3.00 by speed influence Danzig. As well as staying on Oaks third Rumoush DI 2.04 who also finished 2nd in the Park Hill over the 14.5f Leger trip.
Zawraq has a really top pedigree and is looking better all the time. 0 -
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Success Days DI 1.86, what a cracking horse he's been so far winning the 10f Ballysax and Derrinstown stud Derby Trials at will in the mud. Being by the now deceased Jeremy the 7f Jersey Stakes winner and Betfred mile winner you'd be forgiven for thinking he wouldn't stay 12f in a horsebox.
Jeremy is from the family of super 12f sire Deep Impact, Jeremy's own dam Glint In Her Eye DI 1.00 a half sister to Deep Impact ran at 13f and never at less than 10f, her own dam having been placed 2nd in the Epsom Oaks. On to Success Days dam Malaica DI 1.91 and here's where the problems start, his dam was a decent sprinter who also ran at up to 8 1/2f but mainly 6-7f. She has no progeny younger than Success days, her dam Carmel produced Carmelixia a 6-7f runner by Linamix a decent enough source of stamina. Chambois an 8f winner by Whipper a sprinter/miler sire. Waterwild a 6-7 1/2f type by staying sire Country Reel.
I'm afraid there's nothing on the Dam's side to give any hope of not needing the horsebox or of the dream coming true, although Malaicia sire Roi Gironde is by Sadler's Wells full brother Fairy King but that really is clutching at straws. 0 -
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