Derby 2015

Itziger · 08-05-2015 7:18pm #1

What's the story with the Derby this year? There seems to be very little out there that's shown anything with 3 weeks to go (or 4). Saw a couple of the Chester races......

Maybe the Dante or the Derrinstown. Could be a very open year. Any thoughts?

madmoose · 08-05-2015 8:32pm

Itziger wrote: »

What's the story with the Derby this year? There seems to be very little out there that's shown anything with 3 weeks to go (or 4). Saw a couple of the Chester races......

Maybe the Dante or the Derrinstown. Could be a very open year. Any thoughts?

Did a small blog on hand Holbein earlier on my page. Www.antepostviews.wordpress.com

I fancied giovanni though but not sure he makes it! Looks wide open.

kfallon · 08-05-2015 9:46pm

Derrinstown on Sunday is shocking!

shy-tall-knight · 08-05-2015 10:20pm

The Dante would want to reveal something, trials have been non-events thus far. I thought it was interesting Ladbrokes are only 8/1 on Highland Reel for the Derby. Thought he was more of a miler myself as he showed loads of speed last year but will be interesting to see how he shapes at Longchamp on Sunday.

tryfix · 09-05-2015 4:46pm

This years Dante and O'Brien's major players are the be all and end all of the Derby.

I'm not wild about horses such as Jack Hobbs bursting on the scene with amazing early season winning performances, if he nails the Dante then he will have earned his favouritism for the Derby. With a Dosage Index of 1.18 he isn't guaranteed to be suited by Epsom's 12f as his Hernando half brother with a stouter pedigree seems to have been suited best to 9f.

I'm not wild about JFK's stamina either with a Dosage Index of 1.50, if he wins the Dante well then his class may stretch to winning the Derby. Couldn't have him unless he tears the Dante field apart.

Elm Park is another that's got stamina but is not stamina heavy in his pedigree with a Dosage Index of 1.18. He has proven himself in the key Racing Post Trophy which is a very worthy trial for the Derby. The RPT form is meh, but If he turns up he's the type of classy horse to win the race.

Ol' Man River ( DI 0.87 ) is the right combination of form and potential and pedigree for this race, but he has to turn up, if he does he has shown enough to be backed to win it.

Giovanni Canaletto DI = 1.05 has the perfect pedigree with there having been enough confidence behind him throughout his career to suggest he'd be good enough, but time is running out for him, so it would only become clear nearer the race if he was even going to run.

Zawraq is a little light on stamina DI 1.24 but I like the way he's flying under the radar. He has excellent form, I just can't have a Dermot Weld horse for the Derby. Hmm..

If Highland Reel DI 1.20 bursts on to the scene in the French Guineas he will have shown enough class to be considered good enough to win at Epsom if he's sent there. I always liked him, thought his form was a little light but it's strong enough and there's enough stamina on his dam's side to get him home.

tryfix · 09-05-2015 5:10pm

Just to point out some of the stamina reservations over the fancied runners, Gleneagles the 2,000 Guineas winner has a Dosage Index of 1.20 and isn't even being considered for the Derby.

If the rest of O'Brien's big guns aren't on target for Epsom then why not send him to Epsom?

Peintre Celebre · 09-05-2015 5:57pm

The trials have been woeful this year. It says a lot when a horse that won a handicap is favourite for the Derby. Christopermarlowe disappointing today but I'm not exactly shocked, he may have been unbeaten but they were poor races he won (though he did beat a nice horse in his maiden). Found it extremely difficult to envisage a Derby winner by Tapit

tryfix · 11-05-2015 3:51pm

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

The trials have been woeful this year. It says a lot when a horse that won a handicap is favourite for the Derby. Christopermarlowe disappointing today but I'm not exactly shocked, he may have been unbeaten but they were poor races he won (though he did beat a nice horse in his maiden). Found it extremely difficult to envisage a Derby winner by Tapit

Good article here on the lack of outstanding contenders this year.

IT'S easy to be downbeat about this crop of three-year-olds. Gleneagles was undoubtedly impressive in the 2,000 Guineas and he could be a very smart miler, but further up the stamina spectrum we could be looking at 2013 all over again.

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/home.sd?story=1874112#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews

FIVE2_THREE · 11-05-2015 4:28pm

Tabor one said how stupid the media can be at times especially in regards to how it places all the pressure on Coolmore to carry every race. He's right.

Pinesky · 12-05-2015 9:08am

Tryfix, I share your views on Jack Hobbs.What about the other Gosden horse Golden Horn is his DI anyway suitable?

tryfix · 12-05-2015 12:24pm

Pinesky wrote: »

Tryfix, I share your views on Jack Hobbs.What about the other Gosden horse Golden Horn is his DI anyway suitable?

Golden Horn has a DI of 1.75 which should make it hard for him to get home at Epsom. He has a half sister Eastern Belle DI 1.59 who's a listed winner at 10f and never ran over further.It's interesting that Gosden was talking up Golden Horn when questioned about Jack Hobbs.

Gosden is a master trainer, if either horse wins the Dante I wouldn't rule them out of Epsom on pedigree alone. Jack Hobbs sire Halling gets staying types and Golden Horn's sire Cape Cross does as well. Cape Cross delivered the great Sea The Stars to win a Derby with his DI of 3.00, but Sea the Stars dam was a proven stamina influence.

I'm happy to not look beyond Ol' Man River until the Dante is over and we see how the land lies.

tryfix · 14-05-2015 5:53pm

Well the Dante was a cracker, three well thought of horses pulling clear of good horses, but the O'Brien horses couldn't have run to their GP winning 2yo form.

Hard to figure what to make of the three of them. Jack Hobbs is 8/1 with Ladbrokes which seems a fair bet after he proved he is a top class colt today and Elm Park is the same price and definitely heading to Epsom which can't be said of the other two.

ISOP · 14-05-2015 6:48pm

Jack Hobbs for me

Gringo180 · 14-05-2015 7:31pm

tryfix wrote: »

Well the Dante was a cracker, three well thought of horses pulling clear of good horses, but the O'Brien horses couldn't have run to their GP winning 2yo form.

Hard to figure what to make of the three of them. Jack Hobbs is 8/1 with Ladbrokes which seems a fair bet after he proved he is a top class colt today and Elm Park is the same price and definitely heading to Epsom which can't be said of the other two.

Do you think Elm Park will stay the 12f? Don't know whether he looked one paced in the last 150 yards or else that he didnt stay? I wouldnt be backing him myself.

tryfix · 14-05-2015 8:33pm

Gringo180 wrote: »

Do you think Elm Park will stay the 12f? Don't know whether he looked one paced in the last 15raced ds or else that he didnt stay? I wouldtrialsbacking him myself.

The trainer said he blew up a bit, which is fair enough considering it was his first run of the season against race fit rivals. I'd say he'll stay okay but I'm not impressed by the trainer or the fact that two horses beat him today. They were well on top of him today.

Workforce was beaten into second in the Dante and went on to streak home in the Derby.

Jack Hobbs is the one that seems to have a bit of improvement left in him. Gosden doesn't seem to be too excited by him which is offputting.

This is the Trial of trials form wise this year. After that you might as well wait to see what beautifully bred lightly raced types that could be anything turn up for the race.

Pinesky · 14-05-2015 8:46pm

tryfix wrote: »

Well the Dante was a cracker, three well thought of horses pulling clear of good horses, but the O'Brien horses couldn't have run to their GP winning 2yo form.[/I]

Hard to figure what to make of the three of them. Jack Hobbs is 8/1 with Ladbrokes which seems a fair bet after he proved he is a top class colt today and Elm Park is the same price and definitely heading to Epsom which can't be said of the other two.

Gina Harding reported AOB as being worried that there is an infection in the yard as some horses have run way below expectations.

Pinesky · 14-05-2015 8:54pm

tryfix wrote: »

Jack Hobbs is the one that seems to have a bit of improvement left in him. Gosden doesn't seem to be too excited by him which is offputting.

i was really struck by that too. seems like the whole yard knew Golden Horn would be their best today yet Jack goes off fav.

Gregk961 · 14-05-2015 8:55pm

Pinesky wrote: »

Gina Harding reported AOB as being worried that there is an infection in the yard as some horses have run way below expectations.

Id imagine thats damage limitation to be honest, his horses seem to be running fine in the lesser races I think he might just be dealing with a less than steller crop of 3yo middle distance colts. Its time to call bust on JFK and OMR as top class horses in my opinion.

Pinesky · 14-05-2015 9:16pm

Gregk961 wrote: »

Id imagine thats damage limitation to be honest, his horses seem to be running fine in the lesser races I think he might just be dealing with a less than steller crop of 3yo middle distance colts. Its time to call bust on JFK and OMR as top class horses in my opinion.

you could well be right but i'd give aob the benefit of the doubt in that he'd hardly send two poor animals to the dante and subject himself to ridicule .

tryfix · 14-05-2015 10:41pm

Pinesky wrote: »

Gina Harding reported AOB as being worried that there is an infection in the yard as some horses have run way below expectations.

Well when you look at Giovanni Canaletto scoping poorly and missing races then there's something too it, both horses today went out far to quickly for horses with top 2yo GP form.

They could be that bad but you look at the likes of Cape Clear Island and the other lesser lights who've improved this year and placed or won trials then it's hard to figure why two of their best Derby horses have totally flopped.

I don't think there's any rescuing of them but they can't be as bad as they looked today.

Johner · 14-05-2015 10:52pm

Golden Horn was very impressive today, everything looked so effortless for him which was in stark contrast to Jack Hobbs, I'm not so sure Epsom will suit Jack Hobbs, he still ran a good race today but has a lot to learn. They really should supplement Golden Horn.

Although it won't happen I'd have loved to see Gleneagles run, I'd fancy him strongly even over the longer trip.

Gringo180 · 14-05-2015 10:57pm

Is Gleneagles some way related to Giants Causeway? He looks like 10f would be his limit although in saying that Giants Causeway wasnt stopping at the line in the Breeders Cup Classic in what was a blistering pace.

Johner · 14-05-2015 11:04pm

Gringo180 wrote: »

Is Gleneagles some way related to Giants Causeway? He looks like 10f would be his limit although in saying that Giants Causeway wasnt stopping at the line in the Breeders Cup Classic in what was a blistering pace.

Gleneagles dam is a full sister to Giants Causeway iirc. Gleneagles has loads of speed but I don't think stamina would be an issue for the Derby trip.

tryfix · 14-05-2015 11:13pm

Gringo180 wrote: »

Is Gleneagles some way related to Giants Causeway? He looks like 10f would be his limit although in saying that Giants Causeway wasnt stopping at the line in the Breeders Cup Classic in what was a blistering pace.

His dam is a full sister to Giant's Causeway and he's a full brother to Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Marvellous who didn't appear to stay in the Epsom Oaks where she was the favourite or in the Irish Oaks either, think she needed soft ground so there wasn't much notice taken of her staying or not staying. A serious family so good there's another 2yo full sister to Gleneagles and Marvellous called Coolmore.

Gleneagles has a DI of 1.20 which is reasonably okay staying wise, though given his sister's performances over the Oaks trip they're as well off to keep him to a mile which will do nothing but good for his stud credentials provided he performs well.

madmoose · 14-05-2015 11:35pm

Think aob ruled out gleneagles for it today anyway so he out to as we wouldnt want to see another dawn approach effort on the downs for an out and out miler.

Seems as though giovanni canaletto and hans holbein will be his hopes now in a poor derby. Golden horn owners be mad not to supplement him.

kfallon · 15-05-2015 12:46pm

Highland Reel might be thrown into the mix???

d-gal · 15-05-2015 1:18pm

If Best of Times runs I'd give him a huge chance - really really impressed with him so far and improving every race

diomed · 15-05-2015 4:06pm

Golden Horn’s Dante win was impressive. The time was good, much better than the fillies race at the same distance that preceded it, and the two 1m 2f races the previous day. He is a neat looking horse, well behaved and balanced in running, runs straight, and would be ideal for the Derby if he got the distance. Could he last the Epsom 12f?

I have deserted Dosage Index as an indicator of staying ability. I also thing average winning distance of sire’s progeny can be misleading as it does not tell you whether the dams were sprinters or stayers. An average might be ok with many hundred offspring but awd does not state sample size.
I like to look at the best racing distances of sires and dams. And the best distance has to be in a good quality race, preferably a number of group races, or good handicaps, with big fields. Anything less is worthless and best ignored.

I want to have a guess at Golden Horn’s stamina.
Golden Horn’s sire Cape Cross was a miler, although he has produced some good 12f horses: Sea The Stars; Ouija Board; Crystal Capella; Treat Gently; Star Lahib; Behkabad.
I think Sea The Stars and Ouija Board were best at 10f.
Golden Horn’s dam Fleche D’Or is the problem. As far as I can see she did not race so that vital bit of information, her racing record, is missing.

Fleche D’Or’s sire Dubai Destination was an 8f horse, her dam Nuryana also an 8f winner twice as a 3yo. So I guess Fleche D’Or might have been an 8f filly if she raced.
Dubai Destination’s sire Kingmambo was also a miler, and Nuryana’s sire was the miler Nureyev. Nuryana’s damsire Habitat was a miler.
My conclusion is Golden Horn is probably best at 10f, his owner’s stated preferred distance. The horse won £90k in the Dante. After paying percentages to connections the owner won’t have much more than the £75 Derby supplementary fee. Keep it and win one or more of these: Prix du Jockey Club / Eclipse Stakes/ Juddmonte International / Champion Stakes.
The 12f standard time at Epsom is 2:34.5, at The Curragh 2:30.5. Stamina is essential, despite the generally held opinion that a good 10f horse will get the Epsom 12f.

Pinesky · 15-05-2015 5:21pm

diomed wrote: »

Golden Horn’s Dante win was impressive. The time was good, much better than the fillies race at the same distance that preceded it, and the two 1m 2f races the previous day. He is a neat looking horse, well behaved and balanced in running, runs straight, and would be ideal for the Derby if he got the distance. Could he last the Epsom 12f?

I have deserted Dosage Index as an indicator of staying ability. I also thing average winning distance of sire’s progeny can be misleading as it does not tell you whether the dams were sprinters or stayers. An average might be ok with many hundred offspring but awd does not state sample size.
I like to look at the best racing distances of sires and dams. And the best distance has to be in a good quality race, preferably a number of group races, or good handicaps, with big fields. Anything less is worthless and best ignored.

I want to have a guess at Golden Horn’s stamina.
Golden Horn’s sire Cape Cross was a miler, although he has produced some good 12f horses: Sea The Stars; Ouija Board; Crystal Capella; Treat Gently; Star Lahib; Behkabad.
I think Sea The Stars and Ouija Board were best at 10f.
Golden Horn’s dam Fleche D’Or is the problem. As far as I can see she did not race so that vital bit of information, her racing record, is missing.

Fleche D’Or’s sire Dubai Destination was an 8f horse, her dam Nuryana also an 8f winner twice as a 3yo. So I guess Fleche D’Or might have been an 8f filly if she raced.
Dubai Destination’s sire Kingmambo was also a miler, and Nuryana’s sire was the miler Nureyev. Nuryana’s damsire Habitat was a miler.
My conclusion is Golden Horn is probably best at 10f, his owner’s stated preferred distance. The horse won £90k in the Dante. After paying percentages to connections the owner won’t have much more than the £75 Derby supplementary fee. Keep it and win one or more of these: Prix du Jockey Club / Eclipse Stakes/ Juddmonte International / Champion Stakes.
The 12f standard time at Epsom is 2:34.5, at The Curragh 2:30.5. Stamina is essential, despite the generally held opinion that a good 10f horse will get the Epsom 12f.

Good analysis Diomed but he'll hardly miss the £75k from his cut of the $5.1billion the family got for their share in DeBeer. Total family wealth in excess of $25 billion .

diomed · 15-05-2015 6:40pm

Pinesky wrote: »

Good analysis Diomed but he'll hardly miss the £75k from his cut of the $5.1billion the family got for their share in DeBeer. Total family wealth in excess of $25 billion .

I didn't know that. Do you have his address? :pac:

tryfix · 15-05-2015 8:39pm

diomed wrote: »

Golden Horn’s Dante win was impressive. The time was good, much better than the fillies race at the same distance that preceded it, and the two 1m 2f races the previous day. He is a neat looking horse, well behaved and balanced in running, runs straight, and would be ideal for the Derby if he got the distance. Could he last the Epsom 12f?

I have deserted Dosage Index as an indicator of staying ability. I also thing average winning distance of sire’s progeny can be misleading as it does not tell you whether the dams were sprinters or stayers. An average might be ok with many hundred offspring but awd does not state sample size.
I like to look at the best racing distances of sires and dams. And the best distance has to be in a good quality race, preferably a number of group races, or good handicaps, with big fields. Anything less is worthless and best ignored.

I want to have a guess at Golden Horn’s stamina.
Golden Horn’s sire Cape Cross was a miler, although he has produced some good 12f horses: Sea The Stars; Ouija Board; Crystal Capella; Treat Gently; Star Lahib; Behkabad.
I think Sea The Stars and Ouija Board were best at 10f.
Golden Horn’s dam Fleche D’Or is the problem. As far as I can see she did not race so that vital bit of information, her racing record, is missing.

Fleche D’Or’s sire Dubai Destination was an 8f horse, her dam Nuryana also an 8f winner twice as a 3yo. So I guess Fleche D’Or might have been an 8f filly if she raced.
Dubai Destination’s sire Kingmambo was also a miler, and Nuryana’s sire was the miler Nureyev. Nuryana’s damsire Habitat was a miler.
My conclusion is Golden Horn is probably best at 10f, his owner’s stated preferred distance. The horse won £90k in the Dante. After paying percentages to connections the owner won’t have much more than the £75 Derby supplementary fee. Keep it and win one or more of these: Prix du Jockey Club / Eclipse Stakes/ Juddmonte International / Champion Stakes.
The 12f standard time at Epsom is 2:34.5, at The Curragh 2:30.5. Stamina is essential, despite the generally held opinion that a good 10f horse will get the Epsom 12f.

Dosage Index Of Derby winners.

2014 1st Australia DI 1.00, 2nd Kingston Hill DI 0.90, 3rd Romsdal DI 0.74.

2013 1st Ruler Of The World DI 1.05, 2nd Libertarian DI 0.65, 3rd Galileo Rock DI 0.78.

2012 1st Camelot DI 0.68, 2nd Main Sequence DI 2.20, 3rd Astrology DI 1.00.

2011 1st Pour Moi DI 0.57, 2nd Treasure Beach DI 0.89, 3rd Carlton House DI 1.00.

2010 1st Workforce DI 1.00, 2nd At First Sight DI 1.00, 3rd Rewilding DI 1.33.

2009 1st Sea The Stars DI 3.00, 2nd Fame And Glory DI 0.52, 3rd Masterofthehorse DI 0.77.

2008 1st New Approach DI 0.89, 2nd Tartan Bearer DI 0.60, 3rd Casual Conquest DI 0.68.

2007 1st Authorized DI 0.62, 2nd Eagle Mountain DI 1.12, 3rd Aqaleem DI 1.09.

2006 1st Sir Percy DI 0.54, 2nd Dragon Dancer DI 0.74, 3rd Dylan Thomas DI 1,55.

2005 1st Motivator DI 1.04, 2nd Walk In The Park DI 0.62, 3rd Dubawi DI 1.20.

2004 1st North Light DI 1.13.
2003 1st Kris Kin DI 1.05.
2002 1st High Chaparral DI 0.82.
2001 1st Galileo DI 1.11.
2000 1st Sinndar DI 1.55.
1999 1st Oath DI 1.86.
1998 1st High Rise DI 0.82.
1997 1st Benny The Dip DI 3.00.
1996 1st Shaamit DI 0.80.
1995 1st Lammtarra DI 1.15.

The Dosage Index comes into its own for races like the Epsom Derby where at that particular stage of a horse's career they're running in a full blooded all out staying race. By the end of the Epsom Derby there's no hiding place, you either stay or crack on the long run in.

Some horses manage to overcome a fairly high DI, that was much more common in the past when the US pedigrees brought in blood that hadn't exactly been running at staying distances in the states.

Now that the age of the Derby Sires Montjeu and Galileo and their stallion sons is with us the vast majority of modern Epsom Derbies are dominated by horses with DIs of close to 1.00 and under.

The fancied horses in the field for this year's Derby are light on stamina, there's definitely scope for a big priced placed horse to be found with a sub 1.00 DI.

The likes of Hans Holbein DI 0.48 and Kilimanjaro DI 0.71 look tailor made for a place in this year's Derby.

Derby 2015

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