Derby 2015

Itziger

What's the story with the Derby this year? There seems to be very little out there that's shown anything with 3 weeks to go (or 4). Saw a couple of the Chester races......

Maybe the Dante or the Derrinstown. Could be a very open year. Any thoughts?

madmoose

Itziger wrote: »

What's the story with the Derby this year? There seems to be very little out there that's shown anything with 3 weeks to go (or 4). Saw a couple of the Chester races......

Maybe the Dante or the Derrinstown. Could be a very open year. Any thoughts?

Did a small blog on hand Holbein earlier on my page. Www.antepostviews.wordpress.com

I fancied giovanni though but not sure he makes it! Looks wide open.

kfallon

Derrinstown on Sunday is shocking!

shy-tall-knight

The Dante would want to reveal something, trials have been non-events thus far. I thought it was interesting Ladbrokes are only 8/1 on Highland Reel for the Derby. Thought he was more of a miler myself as he showed loads of speed last year but will be interesting to see how he shapes at Longchamp on Sunday.

tryfix

This years Dante and O'Brien's major players are the be all and end all of the Derby.

I'm not wild about horses such as Jack Hobbs bursting on the scene with amazing early season winning performances, if he nails the Dante then he will have earned his favouritism for the Derby. With a Dosage Index of 1.18 he isn't guaranteed to be suited by Epsom's 12f as his Hernando half brother with a stouter pedigree seems to have been suited best to 9f.

I'm not wild about JFK's stamina either with a Dosage Index of 1.50, if he wins the Dante well then his class may stretch to winning the Derby. Couldn't have him unless he tears the Dante field apart.

Elm Park is another that's got stamina but is not stamina heavy in his pedigree with a Dosage Index of 1.18. He has proven himself in the key Racing Post Trophy which is a very worthy trial for the Derby. The RPT form is meh, but If he turns up he's the type of classy horse to win the race.

Ol' Man River ( DI 0.87 ) is the right combination of form and potential and pedigree for this race, but he has to turn up, if he does he has shown enough to be backed to win it.

Giovanni Canaletto DI = 1.05 has the perfect pedigree with there having been enough confidence behind him throughout his career to suggest he'd be good enough, but time is running out for him, so it would only become clear nearer the race if he was even going to run.


Zawraq is a little light on stamina DI 1.24 but I like the way he's flying under the radar. He has excellent form, I just can't have a Dermot Weld horse for the Derby. Hmm..

If Highland Reel DI 1.20 bursts on to the scene in the French Guineas he will have shown enough class to be considered good enough to win at Epsom if he's sent there. I always liked him, thought his form was a little light but it's strong enough and there's enough stamina on his dam's side to get him home.

tryfix

Just to point out some of the stamina reservations over the fancied runners, Gleneagles the 2,000 Guineas winner has a Dosage Index of 1.20 and isn't even being considered for the Derby.

If the rest of O'Brien's big guns aren't on target for Epsom then why not send him to Epsom?

Peintre Celebre

The trials have been woeful this year. It says a lot when a horse that won a handicap is favourite for the Derby. Christopermarlowe disappointing today but I'm not exactly shocked, he may have been unbeaten but they were poor races he won (though he did beat a nice horse in his maiden). Found it extremely difficult to envisage a Derby winner by Tapit

tryfix

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

The trials have been woeful this year. It says a lot when a horse that won a handicap is favourite for the Derby. Christopermarlowe disappointing today but I'm not exactly shocked, he may have been unbeaten but they were poor races he won (though he did beat a nice horse in his maiden). Found it extremely difficult to envisage a Derby winner by Tapit

Good article here on the lack of outstanding contenders this year.

IT'S easy to be downbeat about this crop of three-year-olds. Gleneagles was undoubtedly impressive in the 2,000 Guineas and he could be a very smart miler, but further up the stamina spectrum we could be looking at 2013 all over again.

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/home.sd?story=1874112#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews

FIVE2_THREE

Tabor one said how stupid the media can be at times especially in regards to how it places all the pressure on Coolmore to carry every race. He's right.

Pinesky

Tryfix, I share your views on Jack Hobbs.What about the other Gosden horse Golden Horn is his DI anyway suitable?

tryfix

Pinesky wrote: »

Tryfix, I share your views on Jack Hobbs.What about the other Gosden horse Golden Horn is his DI anyway suitable?

Golden Horn has a DI of 1.75 which should make it hard for him to get home at Epsom. He has a half sister Eastern Belle DI 1.59 who's a listed winner at 10f and never ran over further.It's interesting that Gosden was talking up Golden Horn when questioned about Jack Hobbs.

Gosden is a master trainer, if either horse wins the Dante I wouldn't rule them out of Epsom on pedigree alone. Jack Hobbs sire Halling gets staying types and Golden Horn's sire Cape Cross does as well. Cape Cross delivered the great Sea The Stars to win a Derby with his DI of 3.00, but Sea the Stars dam was a proven stamina influence.

I'm happy to not look beyond Ol' Man River until the Dante is over and we see how the land lies.

tryfix

Well the Dante was a cracker, three well thought of horses pulling clear of good horses, but the O'Brien horses couldn't have run to their GP winning 2yo form.

Hard to figure what to make of the three of them. Jack Hobbs is 8/1 with Ladbrokes which seems a fair bet after he proved he is a top class colt today and Elm Park is the same price and definitely heading to Epsom which can't be said of the other two.

ISOP

Jack Hobbs for me

Gringo180

tryfix wrote: »

Well the Dante was a cracker, three well thought of horses pulling clear of good horses, but the O'Brien horses couldn't have run to their GP winning 2yo form.

Hard to figure what to make of the three of them. Jack Hobbs is 8/1 with Ladbrokes which seems a fair bet after he proved he is a top class colt today and Elm Park is the same price and definitely heading to Epsom which can't be said of the other two.

Do you think Elm Park will stay the 12f? Don't know whether he looked one paced in the last 150 yards or else that he didnt stay? I wouldnt be backing him myself.

tryfix

Gringo180 wrote: »

Do you think Elm Park will stay the 12f? Don't know whether he looked one paced in the last 15raced ds or else that he didnt stay? I wouldtrialsbacking him myself.

The trainer said he blew up a bit, which is fair enough considering it was his first run of the season against race fit rivals. I'd say he'll stay okay but I'm not impressed by the trainer or the fact that two horses beat him today. They were well on top of him today.

Workforce was beaten into second in the Dante and went on to streak home in the Derby.

Jack Hobbs is the one that seems to have a bit of improvement left in him. Gosden doesn't seem to be too excited by him which is offputting.

This is the Trial of trials form wise this year. After that you might as well wait to see what beautifully bred lightly raced types that could be anything turn up for the race.

Pinesky

tryfix wrote: »

Well the Dante was a cracker, three well thought of horses pulling clear of good horses, but the O'Brien horses couldn't have run to their GP winning 2yo form.[/I]

Hard to figure what to make of the three of them. Jack Hobbs is 8/1 with Ladbrokes which seems a fair bet after he proved he is a top class colt today and Elm Park is the same price and definitely heading to Epsom which can't be said of the other two.

Gina Harding reported AOB as being worried that there is an infection in the yard as some horses have run way below expectations.

Pinesky

tryfix wrote: »

Jack Hobbs is the one that seems to have a bit of improvement left in him. Gosden doesn't seem to be too excited by him which is offputting.

i was really struck by that too. seems like the whole yard knew Golden Horn would be their best today yet Jack goes off fav.

Gregk961

Pinesky wrote: »

Gina Harding reported AOB as being worried that there is an infection in the yard as some horses have run way below expectations.

Id imagine thats damage limitation to be honest, his horses seem to be running fine in the lesser races I think he might just be dealing with a less than steller crop of 3yo middle distance colts. Its time to call bust on JFK and OMR as top class horses in my opinion.

Pinesky

Gregk961 wrote: »

Id imagine thats damage limitation to be honest, his horses seem to be running fine in the lesser races I think he might just be dealing with a less than steller crop of 3yo middle distance colts. Its time to call bust on JFK and OMR as top class horses in my opinion.

you could well be right but i'd give aob the benefit of the doubt in that he'd hardly send two poor animals to the dante and subject himself to ridicule .

tryfix

Pinesky wrote: »

Gina Harding reported AOB as being worried that there is an infection in the yard as some horses have run way below expectations.

Well when you look at Giovanni Canaletto scoping poorly and missing races then there's something too it, both horses today went out far to quickly for horses with top 2yo GP form.

They could be that bad but you look at the likes of Cape Clear Island and the other lesser lights who've improved this year and placed or won trials then it's hard to figure why two of their best Derby horses have totally flopped.

I don't think there's any rescuing of them but they can't be as bad as they looked today.

Johner

Golden Horn was very impressive today, everything looked so effortless for him which was in stark contrast to Jack Hobbs, I'm not so sure Epsom will suit Jack Hobbs, he still ran a good race today but has a lot to learn. They really should supplement Golden Horn.

Although it won't happen I'd have loved to see Gleneagles run, I'd fancy him strongly even over the longer trip.

Gringo180

Is Gleneagles some way related to Giants Causeway? He looks like 10f would be his limit although in saying that Giants Causeway wasnt stopping at the line in the Breeders Cup Classic in what was a blistering pace.

Johner

Gringo180 wrote: »

Is Gleneagles some way related to Giants Causeway? He looks like 10f would be his limit although in saying that Giants Causeway wasnt stopping at the line in the Breeders Cup Classic in what was a blistering pace.

Gleneagles dam is a full sister to Giants Causeway iirc. Gleneagles has loads of speed but I don't think stamina would be an issue for the Derby trip.

tryfix

Gringo180 wrote: »

Is Gleneagles some way related to Giants Causeway? He looks like 10f would be his limit although in saying that Giants Causeway wasnt stopping at the line in the Breeders Cup Classic in what was a blistering pace.

His dam is a full sister to Giant's Causeway and he's a full brother to Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Marvellous who didn't appear to stay in the Epsom Oaks where she was the favourite or in the Irish Oaks either, think she needed soft ground so there wasn't much notice taken of her staying or not staying. A serious family so good there's another 2yo full sister to Gleneagles and Marvellous called Coolmore.

Gleneagles has a DI of 1.20 which is reasonably okay staying wise, though given his sister's performances over the Oaks trip they're as well off to keep him to a mile which will do nothing but good for his stud credentials provided he performs well.

madmoose

Think aob ruled out gleneagles for it today anyway so he out to as we wouldnt want to see another dawn approach effort on the downs for an out and out miler.

Seems as though giovanni canaletto and hans holbein will be his hopes now in a poor derby. Golden horn owners be mad not to supplement him.

kfallon

Highland Reel might be thrown into the mix???

d-gal

If Best of Times runs I'd give him a huge chance - really really impressed with him so far and improving every race

diomed

Golden Horn’s Dante win was impressive. The time was good, much better than the fillies race at the same distance that preceded it, and the two 1m 2f races the previous day. He is a neat looking horse, well behaved and balanced in running, runs straight, and would be ideal for the Derby if he got the distance. Could he last the Epsom 12f?

I have deserted Dosage Index as an indicator of staying ability. I also thing average winning distance of sire’s progeny can be misleading as it does not tell you whether the dams were sprinters or stayers. An average might be ok with many hundred offspring but awd does not state sample size.
I like to look at the best racing distances of sires and dams. And the best distance has to be in a good quality race, preferably a number of group races, or good handicaps, with big fields. Anything less is worthless and best ignored.

I want to have a guess at Golden Horn’s stamina.
Golden Horn’s sire Cape Cross was a miler, although he has produced some good 12f horses: Sea The Stars; Ouija Board; Crystal Capella; Treat Gently; Star Lahib; Behkabad.
I think Sea The Stars and Ouija Board were best at 10f.
Golden Horn’s dam Fleche D’Or is the problem. As far as I can see she did not race so that vital bit of information, her racing record, is missing.

Fleche D’Or’s sire Dubai Destination was an 8f horse, her dam Nuryana also an 8f winner twice as a 3yo. So I guess Fleche D’Or might have been an 8f filly if she raced.
Dubai Destination’s sire Kingmambo was also a miler, and Nuryana’s sire was the miler Nureyev. Nuryana’s damsire Habitat was a miler.
My conclusion is Golden Horn is probably best at 10f, his owner’s stated preferred distance. The horse won £90k in the Dante. After paying percentages to connections the owner won’t have much more than the £75 Derby supplementary fee. Keep it and win one or more of these: Prix du Jockey Club / Eclipse Stakes/ Juddmonte International / Champion Stakes.
The 12f standard time at Epsom is 2:34.5, at The Curragh 2:30.5. Stamina is essential, despite the generally held opinion that a good 10f horse will get the Epsom 12f.

Pinesky

diomed wrote: »

Golden Horn’s Dante win was impressive. The time was good, much better than the fillies race at the same distance that preceded it, and the two 1m 2f races the previous day. He is a neat looking horse, well behaved and balanced in running, runs straight, and would be ideal for the Derby if he got the distance. Could he last the Epsom 12f?

I have deserted Dosage Index as an indicator of staying ability. I also thing average winning distance of sire’s progeny can be misleading as it does not tell you whether the dams were sprinters or stayers. An average might be ok with many hundred offspring but awd does not state sample size.
I like to look at the best racing distances of sires and dams. And the best distance has to be in a good quality race, preferably a number of group races, or good handicaps, with big fields. Anything less is worthless and best ignored.

I want to have a guess at Golden Horn’s stamina.
Golden Horn’s sire Cape Cross was a miler, although he has produced some good 12f horses: Sea The Stars; Ouija Board; Crystal Capella; Treat Gently; Star Lahib; Behkabad.
I think Sea The Stars and Ouija Board were best at 10f.
Golden Horn’s dam Fleche D’Or is the problem. As far as I can see she did not race so that vital bit of information, her racing record, is missing.

Fleche D’Or’s sire Dubai Destination was an 8f horse, her dam Nuryana also an 8f winner twice as a 3yo. So I guess Fleche D’Or might have been an 8f filly if she raced.
Dubai Destination’s sire Kingmambo was also a miler, and Nuryana’s sire was the miler Nureyev. Nuryana’s damsire Habitat was a miler.
My conclusion is Golden Horn is probably best at 10f, his owner’s stated preferred distance. The horse won £90k in the Dante. After paying percentages to connections the owner won’t have much more than the £75 Derby supplementary fee. Keep it and win one or more of these: Prix du Jockey Club / Eclipse Stakes/ Juddmonte International / Champion Stakes.
The 12f standard time at Epsom is 2:34.5, at The Curragh 2:30.5. Stamina is essential, despite the generally held opinion that a good 10f horse will get the Epsom 12f.

Good analysis Diomed but he'll hardly miss the £75k from his cut of the $5.1billion the family got for their share in DeBeer. Total family wealth in excess of $25 billion .

diomed

Pinesky wrote: »

Good analysis Diomed but he'll hardly miss the £75k from his cut of the $5.1billion the family got for their share in DeBeer. Total family wealth in excess of $25 billion .

I didn't know that. Do you have his address? :pac:

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

Golden Horn’s Dante win was impressive. The time was good, much better than the fillies race at the same distance that preceded it, and the two 1m 2f races the previous day. He is a neat looking horse, well behaved and balanced in running, runs straight, and would be ideal for the Derby if he got the distance. Could he last the Epsom 12f?

I have deserted Dosage Index as an indicator of staying ability. I also thing average winning distance of sire’s progeny can be misleading as it does not tell you whether the dams were sprinters or stayers. An average might be ok with many hundred offspring but awd does not state sample size.
I like to look at the best racing distances of sires and dams. And the best distance has to be in a good quality race, preferably a number of group races, or good handicaps, with big fields. Anything less is worthless and best ignored.

I want to have a guess at Golden Horn’s stamina.
Golden Horn’s sire Cape Cross was a miler, although he has produced some good 12f horses: Sea The Stars; Ouija Board; Crystal Capella; Treat Gently; Star Lahib; Behkabad.
I think Sea The Stars and Ouija Board were best at 10f.
Golden Horn’s dam Fleche D’Or is the problem. As far as I can see she did not race so that vital bit of information, her racing record, is missing.

Fleche D’Or’s sire Dubai Destination was an 8f horse, her dam Nuryana also an 8f winner twice as a 3yo. So I guess Fleche D’Or might have been an 8f filly if she raced.
Dubai Destination’s sire Kingmambo was also a miler, and Nuryana’s sire was the miler Nureyev. Nuryana’s damsire Habitat was a miler.
My conclusion is Golden Horn is probably best at 10f, his owner’s stated preferred distance. The horse won £90k in the Dante. After paying percentages to connections the owner won’t have much more than the £75 Derby supplementary fee. Keep it and win one or more of these: Prix du Jockey Club / Eclipse Stakes/ Juddmonte International / Champion Stakes.
The 12f standard time at Epsom is 2:34.5, at The Curragh 2:30.5. Stamina is essential, despite the generally held opinion that a good 10f horse will get the Epsom 12f.

Dosage Index Of Derby winners.

2014 1st Australia DI 1.00, 2nd Kingston Hill DI 0.90, 3rd Romsdal DI 0.74.

2013 1st Ruler Of The World DI 1.05, 2nd Libertarian DI 0.65, 3rd Galileo Rock DI 0.78.

2012 1st Camelot DI 0.68, 2nd Main Sequence DI 2.20, 3rd Astrology DI 1.00.

2011 1st Pour Moi DI 0.57, 2nd Treasure Beach DI 0.89, 3rd Carlton House DI 1.00.

2010 1st Workforce DI 1.00, 2nd At First Sight DI 1.00, 3rd Rewilding DI 1.33.

2009 1st Sea The Stars DI 3.00, 2nd Fame And Glory DI 0.52, 3rd Masterofthehorse DI 0.77.

2008 1st New Approach DI 0.89, 2nd Tartan Bearer DI 0.60, 3rd Casual Conquest DI 0.68.

2007 1st Authorized DI 0.62, 2nd Eagle Mountain DI 1.12, 3rd Aqaleem DI 1.09.

2006 1st Sir Percy DI 0.54, 2nd Dragon Dancer DI 0.74, 3rd Dylan Thomas DI 1,55.

2005 1st Motivator DI 1.04, 2nd Walk In The Park DI 0.62, 3rd Dubawi DI 1.20.


2004 1st North Light DI 1.13.
2003 1st Kris Kin DI 1.05.
2002 1st High Chaparral DI 0.82.
2001 1st Galileo DI 1.11.
2000 1st Sinndar DI 1.55.
1999 1st Oath DI 1.86.
1998 1st High Rise DI 0.82.
1997 1st Benny The Dip DI 3.00.
1996 1st Shaamit DI 0.80.
1995 1st Lammtarra DI 1.15.

The Dosage Index comes into its own for races like the Epsom Derby where at that particular stage of a horse's career they're running in a full blooded all out staying race. By the end of the Epsom Derby there's no hiding place, you either stay or crack on the long run in.

Some horses manage to overcome a fairly high DI, that was much more common in the past when the US pedigrees brought in blood that hadn't exactly been running at staying distances in the states.

Now that the age of the Derby Sires Montjeu and Galileo and their stallion sons is with us the vast majority of modern Epsom Derbies are dominated by horses with DIs of close to 1.00 and under.

The fancied horses in the field for this year's Derby are light on stamina, there's definitely scope for a big priced placed horse to be found with a sub 1.00 DI.


The likes of Hans Holbein DI 0.48 and Kilimanjaro DI 0.71 look tailor made for a place in this year's Derby.

diomed

I wrote a program to calculate Dosage Index in 1993, calculating 3,600 horses an hour on the slow PCs back then.

An index that states that you can disregard a horse at 12f that has four times more sprint sires than staying sires in its pedigree does not select/deselect many. It did in the early 1990s, but then trainers wised up and kept their sprinters in the stable. By 1998 I was ignoring DI.

Below is my calculation of the 2014 Epsom Derby Dosage Index. I can't remember if it my 4 generation or 5 generation calculation. The DI lore is you should disregard any horse with a DI greater than 3.80, so last year you had to include all entries as "qualifiers".

Arod…(1.27)
Australia…(1.38)
Ebanoran…(1.03)
Fascinating Rock…(1.32)
Geoffrey Chaucer…(1.04)
Impulsive Moment…(1.03)
Kingfisher…(0.97)
Kingston Hill…(1.06)
Orchestra…(1.29)
Our Channel…(2.16)
Pinzolo…(0.55)
Red Galileo…(1.24)
Romsdal…(0.82)
Sudden Wonder…(1.15)
True Story…(0.86)
Western Hymn…(1.07)

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

I wrote a program to calculate Dosage Index in 1993, calculating 3,600 horses an hour on the slow PCs back then.

An index that states that you can disregard a horse at 12f that has four times more sprint sires than staying sires in its pedigree does not select/deselect many. It did in the early 1990s, but then trainers wised up and kept their sprinters in the stable. By 1998 I was ignoring DI.

Below is my calculation of the 2014 Epsom Derby Dosage Index. I can't remember if it my 4 generation or 5 generation calculation. The DI lore is you should disregard any horse with a DI greater than 3.80, so last year you had to include all entries as "qualifiers".

Arod…(1.27)
Australia…(1.38)
Ebanoran…(1.03)
Fascinating Rock…(1.32)
Geoffrey Chaucer…(1.04)
Impulsive Moment…(1.03)
Kingfisher…(0.97)
Kingston Hill…(1.06)
Orchestra…(1.29)
Our Channel…(2.16)
Pinzolo…(0.55)
Red Galileo…(1.24)
Romsdal…(0.82)
Sudden Wonder…(1.15)
True Story…(0.86)
Western Hymn…(1.07)

Below is the Pedigree Query. Com Dosage Indexes for the same horses. The DI is far from infallible but it's a good guide to the trip a horse should excel at when class is at a premium. It doesn't matter so much at all when horses are running in lesser races . I'd rate anything over DI 2.00 as good as a no-hoper in the Derby, there are exceptions but in general you're looking at a horse being a 10-12f type at DI 1.00, a miler/10f at DI 1.50, a sprinter/miler at DI 2.00+ and horses under DI 0.80 heading for Cup horse territory. Some horse don't conform like Sea The Stars but he was freakishly good and his dam outstayed her own pedigree, Frankel outsped his DI 0.92 pedigree not so much in trip but in pace, he too was was out of a sprinter mare that was out of sync with her own stouter pedigree.

It's noticeable that Golden Horn's DI 1.75 sire Cape Cross is capable of throwing freaks like Sea The Stars DI 3.00 and Ouija Board DI 2.56 who outstayed their pedigrees. Given Golden Horn's half sister Eastern Belle's DI 1.59 solid group class form at 10f as a 3yo, I think Golden Horn will stay 12f if he's as good as his Dante win looks.


Arod… DI 1.50 a 10f pedigree, he has since won at 10f by 9l and hasn't been raced over 12f since the Derby

Australia… DI 1.00 a 12f pedigree he won and again at 12f and 10 1/2f.

Ebanoran… DI 0.87 a 12f pedigree unbalanced a bit due to trying to lift a dour staying line by using a sprinter as his sire.

Fascinating Rock… DI 1.29 a 10f pedigree, flopped in the Derby and has thrived since going back in distance.

Geoffrey Chaucer… DI 0.82 a 12f pedigree flopped at Epsom and bringing him back in trip hasn't worked.

Impulsive Moment… DI 0.93 a 12f pedigree, flopped at Epsom ran well in third behind the excellent Postponed on next run at 11f, hasn't run since.

Kingfisher… DI 0.92 a 12f pedigree flopped at Epsom after pacemaking and finished 2nd in the Irish Derby.

Kingston Hill… DI 0.90 a 12f pedigree 2nd at Epsom, ran moderately at 10f and then won at 14f and finished 4th in the Arc.

Orchestra…DI 1.20 a 10f pedigree flopped at Epsom where his Chester Vase victim Romsdal turned the tables a horse who he just got home from before the Derby in the Chester Vase. He couldn't even outstay Kingfisher in the Irish Derby.

Our Channel… DI 3.00 an 8f pedigree flopped at Epsom and never ran over further than 9.5f again in 6 more runs/

Pinzolo…DI 0.53 a 12f+ to Cup horses pedigree, flopped at Epsom and won at 14f latest start.

Red Galileo… DI 1.00 a 12f pedigree, finished 5th at Epsom and has been running at 12f since.

Romsdal… DI 0.74 a 12f+ pedigree, finished 3rd at Epsom and 2nd in the Leger finished 3rd today in Yorkshire Cup 14f.

Sudden Wonder… DI 0.88 a 12f pedigree, flopped at Epsom and won at 10.5f since.

True Story…DI 0.67 a 12f+ pedigree, flopped at Epsom and has been all over the shop at from 9-12f since. Bit of an unreliable oddball.

Western Hymn…DI 0.82, a 12f pedigree, finished a staying on 6th at Epsom and has done well at 10f since.

diomed

Below are my calculations of the Dosage Index of Epsom Derby winners from 1970 to 2014 (the four generation DI).

The "inventor" of the Dosage Index, Steve Roman, developed the index from the work of Franco Varolo, who in turn developed his index from the work of Germaine Vuillier. Steve Roman's index gained popularity when he used it in conjunction with ratings to select "dual qualifiers" for the Kentucky Derby. Often the horses on his short list included the winner. His DI limit was 4.0 - under that limit and the horse was a possible. Nick Mordin in May 1992 wrote about the Dosage Index and the 1992 Epsom Derby. He used a 3.8 DI limit as the Epsom Derby 12f was longer than the Kentucky Derby 10f.

I built into my program a field to automatically categorise the horses into "Sprinter"; "Miler"; "Middle Distance", "Stayer". All these types win the Derby.

What is wrong with the Dosage Index? It ignores good sires, disregards them totally. If you look at the winners below you will see sires with over 50 points, others with 20 or less. So you know that the horses with 20 points have sires that are discarded as useless.

Which sires are ignored? Most good German sires, a country famous for strict regulations on which horses can be sires, a country famous for middle-distance horses. Also ignored are these Derby winning sires: Pinza; Charlottown; Blakeney; Grundy; Empery; Troy; Golden Fleece; Shahrastani; Kahyasi; Nashwan; Generous; Commander In Chief; Lammtarra; and many more since 2000.
Many Derby and Arc winners go to Japan and I think Dosage Index ignores them as they do not have runners in the USA or UK.
A few years later they are added as Chef-de-Race when their merit can no longer be ignored. Then they are used in the DI. Some good sires never make the list (memo to self: prepare a list of high AEI sires that are not chefs).

I try to oppose the DI if I can find a reason. Why? Because everyone uses the DI, and there is price value in betting excluded horses. Most years I will be wrong, but when I am right the price pays for the losers. I've bet in the last twenty four Derbys, and had three winners, and if I was betting an equal amount each year it is +39 points -21 points (losers) = +18 profit. Two of my losers were beaten a head 11/1 , and a short head 6/1.
In the same period in the Oaks 16/1, 25/1, 4/1.

I also do a 5 generation DI as imo the 4 generation DI can be a bit erratic due to small points.

name dob br4 in4 cl4 st4 pr4 pts4 di4 type4
HENBIT 1977 2 7 1 0 2 12 3.80 Sprinter
MILL REEF 1968 19 16 12 5 0 52 3.73 Sprinter
SECRETO 1981 17 15 22 2 0 56 3.31 Sprinter
THE MINSTREL 1974 11 7 16 0 0 34 3.25 Sprinter
NIJINSKY 1967 13 7 20 0 0 40 3.00 Sprinter
BENNY THE DIP 1994 9 9 18 0 0 36 3.00 Sprinter
SEA THE STARS 2006 5 3 8 0 0 16 3.00 Sprinter
TROY 1976 13 8 5 0 6 32 2.76 Miler
ROBERTO 1969 16 8 32 0 0 56 2.50 Miler
ERHAAB 1991 7 21 14 8 0 50 2.33 Miler
DR DEVIOUS 1989 4 2 7 0 1 14 2.11 Miler
COMMANDER IN CHIEF 1990 9 4 27 0 0 40 1.96 Middle Distance
SHERGAR 1978 8 0 10 0 2 20 1.86 Middle Distance
OATH 1996 5 3 10 0 2 20 1.86 Middle Distance
SINNDAR 1997 6 9 9 8 0 32 1.56 Middle Distance
SNOW KNIGHT 1971 5 2 3 4 0 14 1.55 Middle Distance
REFERENCE POINT 1984 20 9 15 14 2 60 1.55 Middle Distance
NASHWAN 1986 15 0 9 4 6 34 1.34 Middle Distance
SHIRLEY HEIGHTS 1975 9 6 13 10 0 38 1.30 Middle Distance
LAMMTARRA 1992 12 1 21 8 2 44 1.15 Middle Distance
NORTH LIGHT 2001 4 4 20 5 1 34 1.13 Middle Distance
GALILEO 1998 9 1 22 8 0 40 1.11 Middle Distance
TEENOSO 1980 4 5 9 8 0 26 1.08 Middle Distance
KRIS KIN 2000 4 4 27 7 0 42 1.05 Middle Distance
MOTIVATOR 2002 8 5 27 12 0 52 1.04 Middle Distance
WORKFORCE 2007 7 1 14 8 0 30 1.00 Middle Distance
AUSTRALIA 2011 3 1 8 4 0 16 1.00 Middle Distance
SHAHRASTANI 1983 5 1 22 8 0 36 0.89 Stayer
NEW APPROACH 2005 5 0 7 6 0 18 0.89 Stayer
GOLDEN FLEECE 1979 6 3 23 8 4 44 0.87 Stayer
KAHYASI 1985 8 0 10 4 6 28 0.87 Stayer
GRUNDY 1972 10 0 2 8 4 24 0.85 Stayer
MORSTON 1970 5 0 10 0 7 22 0.83 Stayer
HIGH-RISE 1995 4 1 8 3 4 20 0.82 Stayer
HIGH CHAPARRAL 1999 6 1 22 9 2 40 0.82 Stayer
SHAAMIT 1993 10 4 4 10 8 36 0.80 Stayer
QUEST FOR FAME 1987 9 0 19 12 4 44 0.73 Stayer
GENEROUS 1988 4 1 8 9 0 22 0.69 Stayer
CAMELOT 2009 6 1 25 16 0 48 0.68 Stayer
SLIP ANCHOR 1982 4 3 14 7 8 36 0.64 Stayer
AUTHORIZED 2004 4 0 24 14 0 42 0.62 Stayer
POUR MOI 2008 4 0 21 13 2 40 0.57 Stayer
SIR PERCY 2003 1 0 5 1 3 10 0.54 Stayer

diomed

Dosage Index is not up to date, and it also ignores good sires.

Galileo (1998) with an AEI (average Earnings Index) of 3.53 is not a Chef de Race. The best sire in Europe with three Derby winners (New Approach; Ruler Of The World; Australia) and one Oaks winner (Was) is not good enough to be a Chef de Race! Galileo was champion GB & Ir sire in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2012, 2014.

I decided to look at the Derby winners where the Dosage Index gave small points to the winners.
I was looking at sires in the pedigree that the Dosage Index ignores as inferior.

Henbit……………….....1st gen Hawaii 12f Group 1 win, 2nd gen Utrillo 12f Group 2 win, 2nd gen Chateaugay 10f Kentucky Derby & 12f Belmont Stakes
Sea The Stars….….…1st gen Cape Cross 8f Group 1 AEI 2.17, 3rd gen Lombard 14 Group wins (6 at 12f)
Dr Devious………......2nd gen Lorenzaccio 10f Group 1
Shergar……………......2nd gen Honeyway 10f Group 1, 3rd gen Charlottesville 12f French Derby
Oath……………….......1st gen Fairy King full sibling of Sadler's Wells, 2nd gen Troy 12f Epsom Derby, 3rd gen Alcide 12f & 14f Group 1s
Snow Knight………...2nd gen Flush Royal 11f Group 2, 2nd gen Pardal 12f Group 2
Australia………….....1st gen Galileo 12f Epsom Derby winner AEI 3.53, 2nd gen Cape Cross 8f Group 1 AEI 2.17
New Approach………1st gen Galileo 12f Epsom Derby winner AEI 3.53
High-Rise……………..2nd gen High Line 5 group 2/3 wins at 12f/13f, 3rd gen High Hat 13f Group win, 3rd gen Sea Hawk 12.5f Group 1 win
Sir Percy……….….....2nd gen Darshaan 12f French Derby; 2nd gen Blakeney 12f Epsom Derby; 3rd gen Sassafras 12f Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe; 4th gen Pinza 12f Epsom Derby

diomed

The Racing Post say Golden Horn will be added to the Derby field which is good. What is not so good is I already place laid him my €242 to €220.

diomed

Will Golden Horn stay 12f?
pedigreequery shows one sibling of Golden Horn.
She is Eastern Belle (Champs Elyess out of Fleche D'Or), who ran 3 x 7f and 3 x 10f, winning at 10f. Her sire Champs Elysee won four times (?) at 12f.

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

Dosage Index is not up to date, and it also ignores good sires.

Galileo (1998) with an AEI (average Earnings Index) of 3.53 is not a Chef de Race. The best sire in Europe with three Derby winners (New Approach; Ruler Of The World; Australia) and one Oaks winner (Was) is not good enough to be a Chef de Race! Galileo was champion GB & Ir sire in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2012, 2014.

I decided to look at the Derby winners where the Dosage Index gave small points to the winners.
I was looking at sires in the pedigree that the Dosage Index ignores as inferior.

Henbit……………….....1st gen Hawaii 12f Group 1 win, 2nd gen Utrillo 12f Group 2 win, 2nd gen Chateaugay 10f Kentucky Derby & 12f Belmont Stakes
Sea The Stars….….…1st gen Cape Cross 8f Group 1 AEI 2.17, 3rd gen Lombard 14 Group wins (6 at 12f)
Dr Devious………......2nd gen Lorenzaccio 10f Group 1
Shergar……………......2nd gen Honeyway 10f Group 1, 3rd gen Charlottesville 12f French Derby
Oath……………….......1st gen Fairy King full sibling of Sadler's Wells, 2nd gen Troy 12f Epsom Derby, 3rd gen Alcide 12f & 14f Group 1s
Snow Knight………...2nd gen Flush Royal 11f Group 2, 2nd gen Pardal 12f Group 2
Australia………….....1st gen Galileo 12f Epsom Derby winner AEI 3.53, 2nd gen Cape Cross 8f Group 1 AEI 2.17
New Approach………1st gen Galileo 12f Epsom Derby winner AEI 3.53
High-Rise……………..2nd gen High Line 5 group 2/3 wins at 12f/13f, 3rd gen High Hat 13f Group win, 3rd gen Sea Hawk 12.5f Group 1 win
Sir Percy……….….....2nd gen Darshaan 12f French Derby; 2nd gen Blakeney 12f Epsom Derby; 3rd gen Sassafras 12f Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe; 4th gen Pinza 12f Epsom Derby

Thanks Diomed, it seems daft that Dosage points at least in the first generation can only change once a horse hits Chef De Race status. Montjeu didn't hit it until 2013 a stage at which he was dead for a year and when he'd finished siring.

The basics of dosage profiling note that only a small number of stallions appear with any great frequency in pedigrees, and thus are deemed highly influential. Such stallions are labelled 'chefs-de-race', French for 'chiefs of racing'.
Chefs-de-race are then assigned characteristics from one or two of the following categories: brilliant, intermediate, classic, solid or professional, relating to the stallion's aptitude (from left to right) for speed through to endurance.
To calculate a runner's dosage profile, every stallion in the first four generations is considered.
If a chef-de-race exists in the first generation, it will add 16 points into the category to which he belongs - or eight in each if the stallion is split, such as brilliant/intermediate, or classic/solid (stallions cannot be labelled more than two categories apart).
Any chef-de-race in the second generation will add eight points (or four if split), the third generation will add four and the fourth, two. All of the points in each category are then added to generate the dosage profile; for example, the 1969 sire Halo was awarded a dosage profile of 11-6-26-1-2, reading again from left to right, brilliant (11), intermediate (6), classic (26), solid (1) and professional (2).
From the dosage profile, a horse's dosage index is then calculated by the ratio of points in the 'speed wing' (brilliant, intermediate and half the classic figure) to those in the stamina wing (half the classic, the solid and professional points). The dosage index of Halo was 1.88.
Generally a lower dosage index will denote a greater aptitude for stamina, while a figure of 1.00 indicates a balance of both speed and stamina.

http://bloodstock.racingpost.com/news/bloodstock/two-new-sires-crowned-chefs-de-race/1319816/

With Montjeu you can see the huge stamina influence he is, Galileo on the other hand seems to be only a mild stamina influence.

I still think the DI is a useful guide to a horses staying ability, it's good at identifying the flashily bred types who haven't proven themselves at a trip.

You've just got to iron out the kinks in it in your own head. For instance Galileo's 3 Epsom Derby winners all had DIs of around 1.00, yet this year there have been so many DI 1.20+ O'Brien Galileo's around that have good form and have been touted for the Derby when the DI says don't touch.

Think Dubawi is a similar slight stamina-neutral influence as well. I like that kind of a sire.


When you're getting into the nitty gritty of whether a horse will stay despite their pedigree then their form and Dam line become very important. I never doubted Dr Devious even though he was out of a sprinter sire and had a DI of 2.11. He had an Alleged mare as his Dam and had won the Dewhurst as a 2yo which is a surprisingly good Derby trial.


Near misses the Great milers El Gran Senor DI 2.43, and Hawk Wing DI 2.00 were good enough to wing an Epsom Derby they just met one stayer too good on the day.

Horses with a high DI that stayed like Sea The Stars DI 3.00 had a Dam who had already outstayed her own DI winning an Arc and produced a Derby winner Galileo DI 1.11 who was proven as more of a stayer than his own DI indicated he should be.

The thing about STS's Dam was that she was out out of a stoutly bred staying mare Allegreta DI 0.60 mated to a US sire Miswaki which lifted her DI and STSs sire Cape Cross had a Dam Park Express who was a stamina influence. So there was in fact plenty of stamina in STS's pedigree.


Erhaab DI 2.33 was out a US sire who won at 9 and 10f and who was hard to weigh up as a stamina influence. Erhaab proved himself worthy as a staying contender by winning the Dante at 10.5f so his win at Epsom was hardly that of a brilliant miler type outstaying his pedigree.

Benny The Dip DI 3.00 was another US bred whose US pedigree wouldn't have lent itself to critical evaluation. His US sire actually has an 11.0f wining average and BTD won the Dante stakes himself at 10.5f before contesting the Derby.

With the more neutral staying influence Galileo as a sire Frankel DI 0.94 had the speed of his mother and the stamina of his father.

The Galileo horses who won the Derby with close to a perfect D1 1.00.

Australia's Dam had proven her own staying ability at the top level, with Ruler Of The World his Dam had already produced the King George winner Duke Of Marmalade from a lesser stamina influence. Despite his being fast enough to win a 2,000 Guineas New Approach's Dam had won at 12f in the top flight.

Of the flops at Epsom with supposedly staying pedigrees.

Sadler's Wells colt and 2,000 Guineas winner Entrepreneur had a DI of 1.17 and his Dam had won the 6 1/2 furlong Prix Maurice Gheest.

Sadler's Wells colt and 2,000 Guineas winner King Of Kings had a DI 1.75 and was out of a habitat mare.

Sadler's Wells colt and 2,000 Guineas winner Refuse To Bend apparently had a perfect DI of 1.05 but his Dam ( dam of Melbourne cup winner Media Puzzle ) was a sprinter who never ran beyond 7f and ran over 5f as a 3yo. He had enough stamina to win the Coral Eclipse over 10 1/2f as a 4yo.


Sadler's Wells colt Barathea DI 1.67 an Irish 2,000 Guineas winner and 2,000 Guineas second to the mighty Zafonic was another who flopped at Epsom. He was out of a Habitat mare and even managed a 4th in the July Cup over 6f.


At this stage the Derby field needs to shape up and slim down a bit before figuring out how likely the main contenders are to win it.

Obri1

You gentlemen that are into the Dosage Index stuff can you explain Limato DI 0.50, Night of Thunder DI 0.82, Canford Cliffs DI 0.82, Excelebration DI 5.00,

I find that DI is something that you can put some stead in but that really there is always going to be good horses that are betrayed by there DI due to some part of their family not being seen as of high quality enough or frankly just being left out of the calculation altogether for instance i would argue that although DI is an interesting idea it should be calculated based on all the stallions that are in a pedigree as any one of those stallions can come through and be more dominant than others.

Frankly i find that it is something that can be highly obscured by the track performance of tonnes of horses every year and this is probably why i put little stock in it compared to what i have visually witnessed from the horses through a season, for instance i just took the July Cup and pulled out the DI for the last 20 winner and of those last 20 winners 11 based on DI should not be sprinters.

Slade Power DI 1.22, Dream Ahead 1.33, Marchand D'or DI 1.86, Sakhee's Secret DI 1.89, Les Arcs DI 1.60, Frizzante DI 1.67, Oasis Dream DI 1.83, Continent DI 1.77, Mozart DI 1.40, Stravinsky DI 1.81, Owington DI 1.34 in fact they should not even be milers.

To put that in perspective they have a similar DI to Azamour 1.67, Dylan Thomas 1.55, Duke of Marmalade 1.38, Swain 1.22, Daylami 1.43, Pentire 2.20, Kings Theatre 1.29 who all won the King George VI and Queen ELizabeth Stakes in the Same time period.

What i am getting at is that horses do not conform to ideas like DI. They appear to me as a nice guide but really apart from that is is of little value in comparison to which distance a horse is truly suited to, which in my opinion is best seen on the track and if that hasn't come to light for the derby horses at this stage then it never will. Yes i do get that it comes into play more so over a stiff course at 1m4f at Epsom like the Derby but to ask horses that cant compete in group company in trials to somehow when they run in the derby over i grant you an extra 2 furlongs to improve markedly is erroneous. The horse has to have a base ability and having a dosage index suited to running the race distance will not change that.

Just a little end note there is a large amount of people who breed racehorses throughout the world that do follow DI going both ways in that commercial breeders attempt to get a higher DI to put in more speed to get Two year old winners and Private Breeders try to get a lower DI (to win the Derby) and i would actually say that what should be taken into account more that general DI is that for each horse in the pedigrees race distance to be taken into account, of course this is very hard to achieve unless you have all the relevant data and at this point in time is very hard to find and apply.

Just as a little example we have a mare at home who is Chesnut with a very distinctive white blaze - Her sire is Bay, Her Mother is Bay, Her Grand Sire and Grand Dam Sire side and Dam side are Bay, Her Great Grand Sire and Dam, Sire and Dam Side are Bay and so on, so eventually if you have stuck with me through all the above waffle you come to 1969 to her Great Great Grandam 4 generations back who was also bay but was by a Chesnut Stallion named Court Martial who was Chesnut with a distinctive white blaze who was Champion 2 year old in Britain and a Guineas winner and her offspring follow his distance markers running at similar distances all be it not at his level to him at 2 and then similar at 3 and 4 so unless you can study these horses to that level of detail and have a clear pointer to which horse that is coming through the breeding its really tough to say from a purely breeding point of view what the subsequent stock are going to suit based purely on there breeding scores ie you can literally get anything. Thereby nullifying DI.

tryfix

Obri1 wrote: »

You gentlemen that are into the Dosage Index stuff can you explain Limato DI 0.50, Night of Thunder DI 0.82, Canford Cliffs DI 0.82, Excelebration DI 5.00,

I find that DI is something that you can put some stead in but that really there is always going to be good horses that are betrayed by there DI due to some part of their family not being seen as of high quality enough or frankly just being left out of the calculation altogether for instance i would argue that although DI is an interesting idea it should be calculated based on all the stallions that are in a pedigree as any one of those stallions can come through and be more dominant than others.

In the early stages of a 3yo colt's season even a stoutly bred Colt can win a 2,000 Guineas. Such as Camelot DI 0.68.

Camelot wasn't a miler, there's little doubt that he wouldn't have been suited to being kept at a mile.

Frankel was another one with DI 0.94, although that's close enough to a perfect DI 1.00 where a horse has a perfect blend of speed and stamina. The flaw in Frankel's DI comes from his Dam Kind, a Danehill x Rainbow quest mare who was a 5-6f sprinter as a 3yo who was brought back in trip from running at 7f as a 2yo. Kind's dam Rainbow Lake was a 12f GP 3 winner by 7l. Whatever happened with the addition of the versatile supersire Danehill to the staying line, it produced a 5-6f freak instead of the expected 8-12f that should have come from that mating.

Think of a Galileo mated to a sprinter and you get the kind of speedy 8-10f horse that Frankel was.

Night Of Thunder had me scratching my head, not because he won the 2,000 Guineas with his DI, but when he didn't get home in the Eclipse. On one hand he had a tough season until then but he did bounce back well again over a mile. Looking at his pedigree he's out of a Galileo mare with a similar DI to himself, she should have been a stayer but never ran beyond 9.5f in 2 seasons of racing. Mate Dubawi to a miler and you'd expect something like Night Of Thunder. I still think Night Of Thunder will get 10f, some horses take maturing to stay.

Canford Cliffs was a miler by a noted sire of spinters and handicappers Tagula, a cheap source of speed, his Dam had a 10f type of DI. That kind of pedigree was never going to deliver a top 12f horse, he did stay 8f comfortably and was never tried over further.

Limato DI 0.50 is another by sire of sprinters Tagula, cheap speed mated to a Singspiel mare produced a brilliant sprinter with a Cup horse's DI.

Excelebration DI 5.00 is out of a Champion Australian Sprinter who is himself out of a Lomond mare ( stamina influence ) and his dam is by Indian Ridge out of a Warning mare DI 1.50 who only ran once and that was at 10f. There was no lack of mile staying probability in his pedigree, the Aus connection may have fupped up his DI. It's noticeable that Excelebration cracked behind Frankel more than once, not getting home when he'd overdone it trying to keep up with a ferocious pace.

Frankly i find that it is something that can be highly obscured by the track performance of tonnes of horses every year and this is probably why i put little stock in it compared to what i have visually witnessed from the horses through a season, for instance i just took the July Cup and pulled out the DI for the last 20 winner and of those last 20 winners 11 based on DI should not be sprinters.

Slade Power DI 1.22, Dream Ahead 1.33, Marchand D'or DI 1.86, Sakhee's Secret DI 1.89, Les Arcs DI 1.60, Frizzante DI 1.67, Oasis Dream DI 1.83, Continent DI 1.77, Mozart DI 1.40, Stravinsky DI 1.81, Owington DI 1.34 in fact they should not even be milers.

To put that in perspective they have a similar DI to Azamour 1.67, Dylan Thomas 1.55, Duke of Marmalade 1.38, Swain 1.22, Daylami 1.43, Pentire 2.20, Kings Theatre 1.29 who all won the King George VI and Queen ELizabeth Stakes in the Same time period.

What i am getting at is that horses do not conform to ideas like DI. They appear to me as a nice guide but really apart from that is is of little value in comparison to which distance a horse is truly suited to, which in my opinion is best seen on the track and if that hasn't come to light for the derby horses at this stage then it never will. Yes i do get that it comes into play more so over a stiff course at 1m4f at Epsom like the Derby but to ask horses that cant compete in group company in trials to somehow when they run in the derby over i grant you an extra 2 furlongs to improve markedly is erroneous. The horse has to have a base ability and having a dosage index suited to running the race distance will not change that.

Just a little end note there is a large amount of people who breed racehorses throughout the world that do follow DI going both ways in that commercial breeders attempt to get a higher DI to put in more speed to get Two year old winners and Private Breeders try to get a lower DI (to win the Derby) and i would actually say that what should be taken into account more that general DI is that for each horse in the pedigrees race distance to be taken into account, of course this is very hard to achieve unless you have all the relevant data and at this point in time is very hard to find and apply.

There's no reason at all that DI 1.22+ horse shouldn't be sprinters, depending on whether there is genuine speed in their pedigrees.

During the period of Northern Dancer and US blood dominating the classic scene it was common for milers to go back to sprinting and for them to trounce the cheap speed types. Danehill, Ajdal, Green Desert, Great Commotion, and endless line of Danzig blood in particular and a nice smattering of Nuryev thrown in. You've got to look at what a sire is capable of throwing, some sires are super versatile, some just churn out peas in a pod replicas of themselves. The phrase sprinter milers should be kept in mind when you're dealing with the Danzig/Nureyev stallion line.

Slade Power DI 1.22 is out of the sprinter Dutch Art who produces sprinter/milers. His sire doesn't have non sprinting class to impart.

Rip Van Winkle DI 1.10 is out of Galileo who throws 8-12f top GP 1 animals, Rip should be a 12f horse on DI but he was a brilliant miler who operated from 8-12f. His speed comes from his Dam who is by Aidan O'Brien's brilliant Nureyev sprinter Stravinsky. A similar mating in ways to the one that produced the other fastest son of Galileo, Frankel.

That list of sprinters.

Dream Ahead DI 1.33 is out of the Warning ( DI 2.82 ) sire Diktat 1.36 who was a GP1 sprinter himself and sires sprinter miler like Dream Ahead who was versatile enough to beat Goldikova over 7f in a GP1. His dam is by the sprinter Cadeaux Genereux out of a Green Desert ( sprinter and sprint sire ) mare.

Sakhee's Secret DI 1.86, when you head towards DI 2.00 you're in sprinter/miler territory. Can't figure what the hell Sakhee the Arc winner was doing siring sprinters, then you look at Sakhee's Secret's dam and she's got a DI of 3.80 which makes things a lot more explicable.

Oasis Dream DI 1.83 by a classy sprint sire Green Desert.

Frizzante DI 1.67 by a cheap sprinter/miler sire Efisio.

Mozart DI 1.40 by the brilliant source of speed Danehill out a USA mare by a brilliant champion 2 and 3yo. Bred to be a sprinter/miler.

Continent DI 1.77, by a GP1 winning sprinter who was by a Gp 1 sprinter who was by a GP 1 sprinter out of a miler pedigree on the Dam side.

Owington DI 1.34 another product of sprinter sire Green Desert.

Stravinsky DI 1.81 by the brilliant sprinter/miler sire Nureyev out of a USA dam with a DI 3.16.

Marchand D'or DI 1.86 has me stumped a bit; but he's out of a mare with a D1 of 2.43. His sire does sire sprinters as well as 10f types.

The stayers list.

Azamour DI 1.67, by Night Shift a Northern Dancer source of speed but out of a dour staying line that was being sped up from a DI of 0.63 to a DI of 0.93 in his dam who finished 2nd in an Irish Guineas. He was originally a GP1 miler who didn't go to 12f until he was 4. He wasn't a stamina type, he earned his stripes rather than inherited them.

Dylan Thomas DI 1.55 a Danehill colt out of a DI 1.31 mare, he took a bit of time to stay the Derby trip, only finishing 3rd at Epsom before scoring at 12f in the Irish Derby and being kept at 10f for his next 7 runs before scoring at 12f twice again as a 4yo.

Duke of Marmalade DI 1.38, a Danehill colt who despite his lowish DI was a miler as as a 3yo, he took time to get as far as winning at 12f as a 3yo thanks to Papal Bull throwing in the towel. Not really a 12f horse unlike his DI 1.05 half brother Ruler Of the World.

Swain DI 1.22 by a Derby winner who doesn't get speedy types out of a DI 1.20 mare.

Daylami DI 1.43 by a 2,000 Guineas winner who got 10f but only finished 3rd at Epsom who produced similar types to himself out of a mare who produced the 12f star Dalakhani from the 12f sire Darshaan. Daylami was a classic winning miler at 3 who didn't step up to winning at 10f until he was 4 and who didn't win at 12f until he was 5. Progressed in line with his pedigree and DI.

Pentire DI 2.20, his DI is skewed by being from a US bred stallion who was a son of Northern Dancer and had a DI of 4.87 which didn't reflect his stamina influence on his stock. That stallion Be My Guest also sired French Derby winner Assert DI 1.31 and Go And Go DI 2.71 a Belmont Stakes winner. Pentire's dam Gull Nook was a 12f GP winner and produced another foal who was a 12f GP winner and a Galtres stakes 12f second by the Danzig miler Polish Precedent.

Kings Theatre DI 1.29 is another whose DI is skewed by his USA bred dam's pedigree which is DI 6.43. He's a half brother to the champion 2yo High Estate who won at a mile as a 2yo and sired a Derby winner High Rise

Obri1

Now Bear with me i know this is long and im probably waffling away to beat the band (I should be studying currently instead )

And thanks for coming back to me on it i really appreciate it and i find it a really interesting discussion.

So the great influences for speed that are in a large number of pedigrees these days are ignored - Danehill, Green Desert etc,

Also ive noticed when your coming back with a lot of this analysis your having to adapt the DI for most of these horses based on other factors that DI is not accounting for ie what the mothers DI is or being by a speed sire. If they are a speed sire then surely they should be included as a Chef de race on the Brilliant level (or another group added (Cheap Speed)) and thereby have a weight towards what the DI of an individual should be and this is what i was getting at, if you ignore a horse in a pedigree such as a Danehill or a Green Desert are you not just ignoring a major genetic component of what is going in to the make up of the individual horse based on them not being on Dr Romans Chef de race list.

Also what if Dr Romans has got it wrong on certain Chef de Race in that they are actually capable of getting horses over a multitude of distances which has been shown by for instance Cape Cross in modern day (probably never going to be a Chef de race). Also by ignoring certain lesser stallions that appear in pedigrees throughout the course of breeding history your also ignoring the genetic influence that they are having on the stock for instance i know from looking at pedigrees that a horse like Sing or Absalom are a major influence for increasing the speed in a horse but because they do not show up in a large number of pedigrees they are ignored as having no influence on what is coming about from a mating.

The other problem i have which you seem to include for yourself when your explaining why certain horses appear to run in a particular way is that the female genetic influence exerted by dams throughout the pedigree of theses horses is ignored - and yes i know that Dr Romans says that they are accounted for by including Chef de races that appear on the the dam side but it does ignore the aspect that the mares may have ran over a different distance or that a specific dam line family is more orientated towards speed or stamina in difference to the dams sires own DI and ideal difference, also this as you have illustrated above completely changes what the progeny of a certain mare run over in comparison to the runners own personal DI.

When dosage appears to not suit the horses known track ability and distance of running it appears to be adapted by having to add in extra data like such and such a horse was by a sire who was a 2.86 DI so thats why they didnt stay or their mother had a DI of X figure greater that 3 because it was by an american sire, well that frankly just seems to me as revisionist the system either works or it doesnt, it either accounts for what has been seen on the racetrack or it doesnt, it cant just be a case of well that horse there changed the pedigree so thats why its DI is screwed up, DI is supposed to have accounted already for that horse and yet the calculation is messed up - then the system doesnt really work.

For instance from a pedigree point of view its quite clear why those sprinters were sprinters and why those stamina horses were stamina horses based on the sires they were by and the mares they were out of (even though alot of them are not on the chef de race list) with out taking into regard their DI, and to bring it back to the derby its quite clear why they are derby horses they show stamina in their work at home and on the racetrack. For instance the Derby Field -

I had this horse down where he is normally in the betting but really i think he shows why im not a fan of DI and the problems with it

Moheet - High Chaparral ex Abunai (Pivotal) - DI 0.68 - More than likely the entire dam side is being ignored by the Chef de Race list which will orientate the DI to out and out staying, i would from a pedigree standpoint hazard a guess that he might be more orientated towards speed, in fact from a DI perspective the calculation will only take into account Sadlers Wells (Classic/Staying), Shirley Heights (Classic/Professional), Nureyev (Classic) and Northern Dancer (Brilliance/Classic) and ignore Neartic, Bold Reason, Kris, Cozzene, Known Fact, Lomond, Warning, Polar Falcon, Darshaan and Pivotal, and this i suppose highlights the issue with DI that i have, this is an outstanding bunch of sires that have influenced pedigrees for years and all of them have been ignored as they are not on the Chef de Race list. Infact i find it interesting that Neartic the sire of Northern Dancer isnt on the Chef List but his son is even though every single pedigree that northern dancer is in so also is Neartic.

After that the horses this is the rest of them in the betting from coral - by sires statistical winning distance of Progeny Skip them all if you find it unimportant

Golden Horn - Cape Cross ex Fleche D'Or (Dubai Destination) DI 1.75 - Sire has 101 winners at 5-6F, 299 winners 7-9F, 127 winners 10-11f and 127 winners 12-13F so Cape Cross can get horses at a multitude of distances.

Zawraq - Shamardal ex Sundis (Sadlers Wells) - DI 1.24 - Sire has 82 winners 5-6F, 157 winners 7-9F, 48 winners 10-11F, 16 winners 12-13F Can get horses at a multitude of distances but more orientated towards speed despite Zawraqs DI and his own of 1.72.

Jack Hobbs - Halling ex Swains Gold (Swain) - DI 1.18 - Sire has 25 winners at 5-6F, 124 winners at 7-9F, 97 winners at 10-11F, 72 winners at 12-13F, Def more towards Staying but still capable of getting a 5-6F winner which just shows the madness of DI as if Halling (DI 0.71) who i would consider an out and out staying sire can get winners over the shortest distances anything can happen.

Elm Park - Phoenix Reach ex Lady Brora (Dashing Blade) - DI 1.18 - Sire has 3 winners 5-6F, 8 winners 7-9F, 4 winners 10-11F, 4 winners 12-13F, More towards milers but capable of all distances despite DI 3.00.

Giovanni Canaletto - Galileo (Derby Winner) ex Love Me True (Kingmambo) - DI 1.05 - Sire has 8 winners at 5-6F, 253 winners at 7-9F, 225 winners at 10-11F, 171 winners at 12-13F, def milers to stayers but im interested that their slightly more orientated to less that 12F,

Hans Holbein - Montjeu (Irish and French Derby winner) ex Lila (Shirley Heights) - DI 0.48 - Sire has 3 winners at 5-6F, 130 winners at 7-9F, 148 winners at 10-11F, 108 winners at 12-13F, Sire cant get speed horses but even spread of winners from 7 - 13F, i would consider him an out and out staying sire myself so interesting the 130 winners at miler distances. The First true stayer in the race in my opinion but if its good ground may get caught for a kick but could grind it out on pedigree.

Highland Reel - Galileo ex Hveger (Danehill) - DI 1.20 - Sire see above. Adding Danehill in would orientate it more towards speed but up to dam i suppose.

Kilimanjaro - High Chaparral (Derby Winner) ex Middle Persia (Dalakhani) - DI .71 - Sire has 9 winners at 5-6F, 83 winners at 7-9F, 61 winners at 10-11F, 43 winners at 12-13F, Orientated more towards Milers and 10F horses which is interesting for a son of Sadlers wells less prolific at 12f so although the i would say that the sire must have a speed influence coming in from somewhere that is being passed to his progeny although the Dalakhani should allow him to stay like a tank.

Skipping Grey Lion and Sir Isaac Newton as both are same as Highland Reel Galileo ex on Danehill.

Best of Times - Dubawi ex Nabati (Rahy) - DI 1.67 - Sire has 60 5-6F winners, 160 7-9F winners, 52 10-11F winners, 37 12-13F winners, Sire more towards milers and interesting even spread over the rest although poor for true staying, my opinion top class sire who's horses can win at 12f by class rather than staying ability which is how i view the derby the last while horses with class win it rather than true stayers.

Christophermarlowe - Tapit ex Dress Rehearsal (Galileo) - DI 2.20 - First american sire and straightaway messed up DI, winning distance 50 percent 7-9F, 25 percent 9-10F, 15 percent 5-6F, 10 percent 12-13F, Definite more middle distance but even then capable of getting speed horses and staying horses.

Consort - Lope De Vega (French Derby) ex Mundus Novus (Unbridled's Song) - DI 2.33 - Sire has 10 winners at 5-6F, 11 winners 8-9F, 1 winner 10-11F, no winners higher. He was first season last year so the stats are all over the place at the minute till his 3 year olds show their distances.

Aloft - Galileo ex Dietrich (Storm Cat) - DI 1.22 - see the above Galileo stats.

Others that arent by sires ive already gone through that are interesting (ie not Galileo and High Chaparral and Shamardal) are

Nafaqa - Sir Percy (Derby Winner) ex Maghya (Mujahid) - DI 1.86 - Sire has 15 winners 5-6F, 42 at 7-9F, 32 at 10-11F, 23 at 12-13f. More towards milers but capable at all distances.

Intilaaq - Dynaformer ex Torrestrella (Orpen) - DI 1.55 - Sire has 40 percent 11-13F, 25 percent 9-10F, 25 percent 7-8F, 8 percent 14F plus, 2 percent 5-6F,
True Staying sire one of the first along with Montjeu despite this horses DI.

Peterhof - Dansili ex Spinning Queen (Spinning World) - DI 2.00 - Sire has 89 5-6f winners, 233 7-9F, 108 10-11F, 74 12-13F winners, spread across all distances with a bias towards 7-9F winners. Top class sire at all distances.

Epicuris - Rail Link ex Argumentative (Observatory) - DI 2.20 - Sire has 4 5-6F winners, 20 7-9F winners, 12 10-11F winners, 18 12-13F winners even spread but more to milers and 12F horses.

Storm the Stars - Sea the Stars ex Love me Only (Sadlers Wells) - DI 1.11, Sire has 1 5-6F winner, 28 7-9F winners, 15 10-11F winner, 13 12-13 furlong winners. Staying sire in my mind although he does has a bias towards 7-9F when views statistically.

Anyhow there ends all my bull**** and yeah i can see that there is some value to DI but that it is def an incomplete way of viewing a horses pedigree. I just found it interesting that despite the DI most of the sires of theses horses get horses over all distances with the bias being more towards 7-9F (the increase in commercial breeding relative to private breeding increasing the need for speed), but i would hazard a guess that nearly all of these will stay the required distance or at least be capable of doing it at a level and if that is the case and its a good ground track i wouldnt be shocked that its not one of the out and out stayers but more so the horse with pure class (Golden Horn )

tryfix

Obri1 wrote: »

Now Bear with me i know this is long and im probably waffling away to beat the band (I should be studying currently instead )

And thanks for coming back to me on it i really appreciate it and i find it a really interesting discussion.

So the great influences for speed that are in a large number of pedigrees these days are ignored - Danehill, Green Desert etc,

Also ive noticed when your coming back with a lot of this analysis your having to adapt the DI for most of these horses based on other factors that DI is not accounting for ie what the mothers DI is or being by a speed sire. If they are a speed sire then surely they should be included as a Chef de race on the Brilliant level (or another group added (Cheap Speed)) and thereby have a weight towards what the DI of an individual should be and this is what i was getting at, if you ignore a horse in a pedigree such as a Danehill or a Green Desert are you not just ignoring a major genetic component of what is going in to the make up of the individual horse based on them not being on Dr Romans Chef de race list.

Also what if Dr Romans has got it wrong on certain Chef de Race in that they are actually capable of getting horses over a multitude of distances which has been shown by for instance Cape Cross in modern day (probably never going to be a Chef de race). Also by ignoring certain lesser stallions that appear in pedigrees throughout the course of breeding history your also ignoring the genetic influence that they are having on the stock for instance i know from looking at pedigrees that a horse like Sing or Absalom are a major influence for increasing the speed in a horse but because they do not show up in a large number of pedigrees they are ignored as having no influence on what is coming about from a mating.

The other problem i have which you seem to include for yourself when your explaining why certain horses appear to run in a particular way is that the female genetic influence exerted by dams throughout the pedigree of theses horses is ignored - and yes i know that Dr Romans says that they are accounted for by including Chef de races that appear on the the dam side but it does ignore the aspect that the mares may have ran over a different distance or that a specific dam line family is more orientated towards speed or stamina in difference to the dams sires own DI and ideal difference, also this as you have illustrated above completely changes what the progeny of a certain mare run over in comparison to the runners own personal DI.

When dosage appears to not suit the horses known track ability and distance of running it appears to be adapted by having to add in extra data like such and such a horse was by a sire who was a 2.86 DI so thats why they didnt stay or their mother had a DI of X figure greater that 3 because it was by an american sire, well that frankly just seems to me as revisionist the system either works or it doesnt, it either accounts for what has been seen on the racetrack or it doesnt, it cant just be a case of well that horse there changed the pedigree so thats why its DI is screwed up, DI is supposed to have accounted already for that horse and yet the calculation is messed up - then the system doesnt really work.

For instance from a pedigree point of view its quite clear why those sprinters were sprinters and why those stamina horses were stamina horses based on the sires they were by and the mares they were out of (even though alot of them are not on the chef de race list) with out taking into regard their DI, and to bring it back to the derby its quite clear why they are derby horses they show stamina in their work at home and on the racetrack. For instance the Derby Field -

I had this horse down where he is normally in the betting but really i think he shows why im not a fan of DI and the problems with it

Moheet - High Chaparral ex Abunai (Pivotal) - DI 0.68 - More than likely the entire dam side is being ignored by the Chef de Race list which will orientate the DI to out and out staying, i would from a pedigree standpoint hazard a guess that he might be more orientated towards speed, in fact from a DI perspective the calculation will only take into account Sadlers Wells (Classic/Staying), Shirley Heights (Classic/Professional), Nureyev (Classic) and Northern Dancer (Brilliance/Classic) and ignore Neartic, Bold Reason, Kris, Cozzene, Known Fact, Lomond, Warning, Polar Falcon, Darshaan and Pivotal, and this i suppose highlights the issue with DI that i have, this is an outstanding bunch of sires that have influenced pedigrees for years and all of them have been ignored as they are not on the Chef de Race list. Infact i find it interesting that Neartic the sire of Northern Dancer isnt on the Chef List but his son is even though every single pedigree that northern dancer is in so also is Neartic.

After that the horses this is the rest of them in the betting from coral - by sires statistical winning distance of Progeny Skip them all if you find it unimportant

Golden Horn - Cape Cross ex Fleche D'Or (Dubai Destination) DI 1.75 - Sire has 101 winners at 5-6F, 299 winners 7-9F, 127 winners 10-11f and 127 winners 12-13F so Cape Cross can get horses at a multitude of distances.

Zawraq - Shamardal ex Sundis (Sadlers Wells) - DI 1.24 - Sire has 82 winners 5-6F, 157 winners 7-9F, 48 winners 10-11F, 16 winners 12-13F Can get horses at a multitude of distances but more orientated towards speed despite Zawraqs DI and his own of 1.72.

Jack Hobbs - Halling ex Swains Gold (Swain) - DI 1.18 - Sire has 25 winners at 5-6F, 124 winners at 7-9F, 97 winners at 10-11F, 72 winners at 12-13F, Def more towards Staying but still capable of getting a 5-6F winner which just shows the madness of DI as if Halling (DI 0.71) who i would consider an out and out staying sire can get winners over the shortest distances anything can happen.

Elm Park - Phoenix Reach ex Lady Brora (Dashing Blade) - DI 1.18 - Sire has 3 winners 5-6F, 8 winners 7-9F, 4 winners 10-11F, 4 winners 12-13F, More towards milers but capable of all distances despite DI 3.00.

Giovanni Canaletto - Galileo (Derby Winner) ex Love Me True (Kingmambo) - DI 1.05 - Sire has 8 winners at 5-6F, 253 winners at 7-9F, 225 winners at 10-11F, 171 winners at 12-13F, def milers to stayers but im interested that their slightly more orientated to less that 12F,

Hans Holbein - Montjeu (Irish and French Derby winner) ex Lila (Shirley Heights) - DI 0.48 - Sire has 3 winners at 5-6F, 130 winners at 7-9F, 148 winners at 10-11F, 108 winners at 12-13F, Sire cant get speed horses but even spread of winners from 7 - 13F, i would consider him an out and out staying sire myself so interesting the 130 winners at miler distances. The First true stayer in the race in my opinion but if its good ground may get caught for a kick but could grind it out on pedigree.

Highland Reel - Galileo ex Hveger (Danehill) - DI 1.20 - Sire see above. Adding Danehill in would orientate it more towards speed but up to dam i suppose.

Kilimanjaro - High Chaparral (Derby Winner) ex Middle Persia (Dalakhani) - DI .71 - Sire has 9 winners at 5-6F, 83 winners at 7-9F, 61 winners at 10-11F, 43 winners at 12-13F, Orientated more towards Milers and 10F horses which is interesting for a son of Sadlers wells less prolific at 12f so although the i would say that the sire must have a speed influence coming in from somewhere that is being passed to his progeny although the Dalakhani should allow him to stay like a tank.

Skipping Grey Lion and Sir Isaac Newton as both are same as Highland Reel Galileo ex on Danehill.

Best of Times - Dubawi ex Nabati (Rahy) - DI 1.67 - Sire has 60 5-6F winners, 160 7-9F winners, 52 10-11F winners, 37 12-13F winners, Sire more towards milers and interesting even spread over the rest although poor for true staying, my opinion top class sire who's horses can win at 12f by class rather than staying ability which is how i view the derby the last while horses with class win it rather than true stayers.

Christophermarlowe - Tapit ex Dress Rehearsal (Galileo) - DI 2.20 - First american sire and straightaway messed up DI, winning distance 50 percent 7-9F, 25 percent 9-10F, 15 percent 5-6F, 10 percent 12-13F, Definite more middle distance but even then capable of getting speed horses and staying horses.

Consort - Lope De Vega (French Derby) ex Mundus Novus (Unbridled's Song) - DI 2.33 - Sire has 10 winners at 5-6F, 11 winners 8-9F, 1 winner 10-11F, no winners higher. He was first season last year so the stats are all over the place at the minute till his 3 year olds show their distances.

Aloft - Galileo ex Dietrich (Storm Cat) - DI 1.22 - see the above Galileo stats.

Others that arent by sires ive already gone through that are interesting (ie not Galileo and High Chaparral and Shamardal) are

Nafaqa - Sir Percy (Derby Winner) ex Maghya (Mujahid) - DI 1.86 - Sire has 15 winners 5-6F, 42 at 7-9F, 32 at 10-11F, 23 at 12-13f. More towards milers but capable at all distances.

Intilaaq - Dynaformer ex Torrestrella (Orpen) - DI 1.55 - Sire has 40 percent 11-13F, 25 percent 9-10F, 25 percent 7-8F, 8 percent 14F plus, 2 percent 5-6F,
True Staying sire one of the first along with Montjeu despite this horses DI.

Peterhof - Dansili ex Spinning Queen (Spinning World) - DI 2.00 - Sire has 89 5-6f winners, 233 7-9F, 108 10-11F, 74 12-13F winners, spread across all distances with a bias towards 7-9F winners. Top class sire at all distances.

Epicuris - Rail Link ex Argumentative (Observatory) - DI 2.20 - Sire has 4 5-6F winners, 20 7-9F winners, 12 10-11F winners, 18 12-13F winners even spread but more to milers and 12F horses.

Storm the Stars - Sea the Stars ex Love me Only (Sadlers Wells) - DI 1.11, Sire has 1 5-6F winner, 28 7-9F winners, 15 10-11F winner, 13 12-13 furlong winners. Staying sire in my mind although he does has a bias towards 7-9F when views statistically.

Anyhow there ends all my bull**** and yeah i can see that there is some value to DI but that it is def an incomplete way of viewing a horses pedigree. I just found it interesting that despite the DI most of the sires of theses horses get horses over all distances with the bias being more towards 7-9F (the increase in commercial breeding relative to private breeding increasing the need for speed), but i would hazard a guess that nearly all of these will stay the required distance or at least be capable of doing it at a level and if that is the case and its a good ground track i wouldnt be shocked that its not one of the out and out stayers but more so the horse with pure class (Golden Horn )

The DI is very fallible for a number of obvious reasons, it is operated on a chef de sire methodology where the average winning distance of a chef de sire's stock is taken as an indication of the ability of that stallion's stock to stay a trip. In a country like the USA where the opportunities for the progeny of a top stallion to run over staying distances is extremely limited you will not get a true reflection of that sires ability to get staying stock because most races take place over non staying distances. The likes of our 2 mile flat stayers who make up a significant portion of a top middle distance stallions stock wouldn't be racking up those quantities of staying wins in the US. Our stayers are capable of winning at a lesser level over shorter trips if they had to run in them.

So the US stock DIs are skewed towards implying an inability to stay which hasn't been actually been tested.

The DI is correct in identifying that a horse is the sum of its pedigree parts, it's a little flawed in measuring those parts.

But where it matters is in identifying a horse's likely ability to operate at the very highest level. Staying 12f in races like the Epsom Derby is a completely different staying proposition than winning a 12f 0-80 handicap at Ripon or even a 2 mile handicap.

The Derby is at the Olympic level of elite ability, a lung bursting staying race at an early stage of a horse's development. Which is why you'll see the top 12f stallion lines dominating it again and again. The stats below from the Epsom Derby show how important staying blood is in the Derby. Remember all those placed horses down the years at high prices with low DIs while behind them ran any amount of nice fancied 10f types who run out of puff at Epsom.

tryfix wrote: »

Dosage Index Of Derby winners.

2014 1st Australia DI 1.00, 2nd Kingston Hill DI 0.90, 3rd Romsdal DI 0.74.

2013 1st Ruler Of The World DI 1.05, 2nd Libertarian DI 0.65, 3rd Galileo Rock DI 0.78.

2012 1st Camelot DI 0.68, 2nd Main Sequence DI 2.20, 3rd Astrology DI 1.00.

2011 1st Pour Moi DI 0.57, 2nd Treasure Beach DI 0.89, 3rd Carlton House DI 1.00.

2010 1st Workforce DI 1.00, 2nd At First Sight DI 1.00, 3rd Rewilding DI 1.33.

2009 1st Sea The Stars DI 3.00, 2nd Fame And Glory DI 0.52, 3rd Masterofthehorse DI 0.77.

2008 1st New Approach DI 0.89, 2nd Tartan Bearer DI 0.60, 3rd Casual Conquest DI 0.68.

2007 1st Authorized DI 0.62, 2nd Eagle Mountain DI 1.12, 3rd Aqaleem DI 1.09.

2006 1st Sir Percy DI 0.54, 2nd Dragon Dancer DI 0.74, 3rd Dylan Thomas DI 1,55.

2005 1st Motivator DI 1.04, 2nd Walk In The Park DI 0.62, 3rd Dubawi DI 1.20.

The Chef De Race sires should be installed more quickly and perhaps the DI is in major need of revamp. How do you deal with Sea The Stars DI 3.00 as a stallion who doesn't actually get sprinting/miler stock like his DI would imply? The answer lies in the multi generational Chef De Sire approach where STS isn't actually imparting high sprinter/miler type DIs to his stock AFAICS. There's more than the immediate stallion or dam's DI at work which evens things out.

It will be interesting to see if Frankel's 10-12f DI expresses itself in his stock or whether his and his Dams actual speed is passed on. My money is on Frankel being an 8-12f influence with very few of his stock having the speed he or his dam had.


I like your approach with the Sires winners distances. Getting your own chef de race slant in is good but fallible. See Sadler's Wells Derby flops due to stamina limitations despite his own superb record.

What you're looking for are patterns with a sire and balance. Realistically Hans Holbein is too stamina laden to win at Epsom, but it's worth looking at each horse in great depth to see how their DI compares with their actual pedigree. Plus a horse has to be good enough to win, their DI won't make them magically good.

There's an excellent Nick Mordin book with chapters on the subject in the link below, it's working for me anyways.

https://books.google.ie/books?id=79q_peU8Kq4C&pg=PA79&lpg=PA79&dq=sadler%27s+wells+chef+de+race+points&source=bl&ots=UZE5mSAgzn&sig=3c8lv8e2KdMC5eQsM5kXmJu-3oA&hl=en&sa=X&ei=NqVYVeDVGa2R7Aarn4HgDg&ved=0CCcQ6AEwAQ#v=onepage&q=sadler%27s%20wells%20chef%20de%20race%20points&f=false


I'll digest this year's Derby pedigrees, don't want to spend all day today on the computer.:)

Just to address the Danehill, Green Desert type horses. Danehill started as a sire of precocious 2yos and sprinter/milers and his stock were bred and trained to excel at those distances. He made his name in Australia, land of the sprinter. He wasn't that speedily bred with a DI 1.89 having a US bred Dam with a DI of 1.10. He was treated as a European Danzig DI 4.71, you could count the number of top Danzig 12f horses on one hand. It took a bit of time for Danehill's ability to sire middle distance horse to become apparent and then he showed his class, interestingly enough he only struck once in the Epsom Derby with the moderate North Light and I don't think he had an Epsom Oaks winner, yet he had no problem siring multiple top class GP1 12f horses.

Epsom's 12f for a 3yo in June is a different kettle of fish to other tracks as the season and horses progress.

Green Desert was a different type of stallion, he was bred to be a sprinter/miler with a DI 3.73 and unlike the awesome stallion Danehill he lacked the ability to sire a production line of top 10-12f horse. He got a lot of high quality staying types mares sent to him, but he didn't really have the staying goods as a sire to compliment those pedigrees.

Obri1

thanks a million again i shall definitely give that book a full read because that excerpt is very interesting.

Just out of interest if i had to nail you down to picking a derby winner for this year who are you on.

tryfix

Obri1 wrote: »

Just out of interest if i had to nail you down to picking a derby winner for this year who are you on.

The Dante appears to have everything wrapped up form wise, I'm not worried about Golden Horn staying the trip. He's got a sublime trainer but there are flaws in his form. He only beat the useful yardstick Storm The Stars a head as a 2yo, that horse has since been beaten by 4 1/2l by Global Force on his next start and was well beaten by Hans Holbein 1 3/4l in the Chester Vase despite looking like he enjoyed the step up in trip to 12f. Storm The Stars was also beaten by Aloft on his debut who was beaten 2 3/4l by Elm Park in the RPT.

That Storm The Stars form was just Golden Horn's maiden win. His Fielden Stakes win was from another Derby Trial hope Disegno beaten 2l who went down by a head to Not So Sleepy in the Dee stakes with the moderate Prince Gagarin 2l behind.

I just think there's no rush giving up on everything else at this stage. Carlton House won his Dante and was beaten in the Derby by the unconsidered Pour Moi at Epsom. There may be a supplementary entry or a French horse thrown in that could muck up the penalty kick for Golden Horn.

I was a huge fan of Ol' Man River before he ran on pedigree alone and thought everything was falling into place when he was sent to Newmarket, was expecting him to finish in the first 4 there and then to head to Epsom. My heart ruled my head, someone on this forum pointed out that they thought he looked slow in his Beresford win and they could have been right although I think there are nice form lines around the Irish horses.

I'll lick my wounds and wait until closer to the Day to see what's running before picking another Derby horse.

diomed

I have MicroSoft Excel .xls files with my calculations on the Derby 2015 entries ~ 112 entries.
All the files are about the the sires, dams, damsires of the Derby entries. No opinions are expressed in the files, just numbers listed.
Some data is missing as it is difficult to find data on some sires and dams. A byproduct of the exercise is it highlighted gaps in my data.
These are the file headings.

• Derby 2015 Dosage Index numbers for 4 generation pedigrees and 5 generation pedigrees (my calculations) (size 36KB)
• Derby 2015 distance calc, sprint & classic points, sire ratings /num rated, dam ratings/num rated, dam line only (size 31KB)
• Derby 2015 calculations of AEI (Average Earnings Index), suited distance. [based on AEI and best running distance of (Sire x 1 / Damsire x 0.5 / Dam's Damsire x 0.25)/1.75)] (size 80KB)
• Derby 2015 sire, dam, damsire best ratings (the max of Racing Post / Official Rating / Timeform / Turform where ratings found) (size 56KB)

If anyone wants one or all of the files e-mail me at kincsem>eircom>net

Johner

I see Godolphin have bought a share in Jack Hobbs and he'll race in their colours.

They also purchased Log Out Island last week.

supremenovice

Racingpost app article stating Found has been added to Ladrokes' Investec Derby antepost market. THats unbelievable - surely they wont throw a filly in there.
Nb Ive no link from my phone.

Pinesky

supremenovice wrote: »

Racingpost app article stating Found has been added to Ladrokes' Investec Derby antepost market. THats unbelievable - surely they wont throw a filly in there.
Nb Ive no link from my phone.

Nobiliary would have been a 4 length in 1975 without Grundy in the field.
My guess is their colts are poor(or sick} and they've already have the Oaks covered.

tryfix

There's been a lot of talk about D Weld's Zawraq for the Derby.

I wouldn't normally consider a Weld horse for the Derby ( he had 2 beaten favourites in it in the past ) , but I like the way this lad has been prepared. He's been really laid out for the Derby and Weld is at his best IMO when he sends a horse straight to a big race without exposing it in a big trial he seems to often hit the target.

There's the problem of his pedigree his being by Shamardal who has no 3yo GP1 12f winner to his name never mind a Derby quality one. He does have a GP1 12f winning 4yo Baltic Baroness who also won a 10 1/2f GP1 as a 3yo and who is out of a Sadler's Wells mare just like Zawraq is and Shamardal has the 10 1/2f French Derby winner Lope De Vega and Mukhadram who won an Eclipse and finished 3rd in the King George over 12f, but that was as an older horse..

Looking at his DI of 1.24 you'd think he'd a chance but would baulk at the Shamardal sire.

So given that the stamina needs to come from the Dam to counteract the Shamardal speed. I had a look at his Dam's progeny.

Atraas ( by Kings Best ) DI 1.13 never ran over further than 8f and was moderate anyway.
Ghusoon ( by Red Ransom ) DI 1.45 only ran 3 times from 10 - to 10.5f as a 3yo and finished 3rd behind 2 future GP1 fillies in a maiden.
Mustadaam ( by Dansili ) DI 1.48 ran at 12f twice and won once at 10f finished racing as a 3yo.
Tafool ( by Green Desert ) DI 2.04 never ran over 8.5f.
Unmoothaj ( by Green Desert ) DI 2.04 ran mostly at 10f and won once at 10f, never raced over 12f.


On balance he'll likely stay 12f, he's also the best of his Dams progeny so that'll be a great help in staying.

He just needs to be good enough.

Looking further back in his pedigree, his Dam's Dam is Sarayir a Mr Prospector half sister to 2,000 Guineas and Derby winner Nashwan out of the blue hen broodmare Height Of Fashion who produced a host of other top class horses such as Unfuwain, Nayef and a clatter of GP placed others. Sarayir is also the Dam of 1,000 Guineas winner Ghanaati who is by Shamardal's sire Giant's Causeway. Sarayir has also produced a Cumberland Lodge 12f winner MAWATHEEQ DI of 3.00 by speed influence Danzig. As well as staying on Oaks third Rumoush DI 2.04 who also finished 2nd in the Park Hill over the 14.5f Leger trip.

Zawraq has a really top pedigree and is looking better all the time.

tryfix

Hans Holbein is a nice horse whose DI of 0.48 is off-putting as regards his chance of being fast enough to win the Derby. There hasn't even been a winner or placed horse with such a low DI in the Derby for at least 10 years and probably a lot further back.


Looking at Hans Holbien he has already proven his stamina and shown good tactical speed in his Chester Vase win.

A deeper look at his pedigree shows he may not quite be the slow boat that his DI would imply.

His Dam Llia DI 0.52 was by Shirley Heights a stamina influence, but she won at 7f as a 2yo and finished 3rd in the Pretty Poly stakes over 10f and didn't seem to be that well suited by a step up in trip to 12f where she was well beaten in her two subsequent runs.

To test if Llia has some speed to impart, I looked at her progeny as a broodmare.

Dilsaa DI 1.00 ( by Nightshift ) ran at 7-9f for her first 13 runs and then stepped up to 9.5 and 12f on the all weather without much success before being brought back to 5 and 6f on the grass the following season then being stepped up to 14f where she won off 44 OR . Her best form was over 7-8f where she was an 83 OR horse in her younger days.

Gretna DI 0.94 ( by Groom Dancer ) ran from 7-10f best form at 9f.

Hellenio DI 0.85 ( by Cape Cross ) ran 6-8f, running once at 6f as a 3yo.

Jay Gees Choice DI 0.84 ( by Barathea ) made debut at 6f and never ran further than 8.5f in 5 seasons of racing.

King Fingal DI 0.68 ( by Kings Best ) ran a lot of times at 8f and twice at 10f as a 3yo and stepped up to 10-12f mainly racing at 10f as he got older.

Kootenay DI 0.93 ( by Selkirk ) a useful group class miler who only ever raced at 10f once before dropping back in trip.

Sans Frontiers DI 0.62 ( by Galileo ) Classy ( 120 OR ) 3yo GP 2 12f winner and 14f GP1 Irish Leger winner who finished 2nd in the GP 3 Craven stakes over a mile at Newmarket.

Hans Holbein's Dam's dam Llyn Gwynant DI 0.44 was a Gp3 winning miler.


You can see that this family have way more speed than their Dosage Indexes would imply which goes a long way towards dispelling worries about Hans Holbein being a slow boat.

Definitely a very strong place prospect and not to be underestimated.

tryfix

Golden Horn apparently has the form in the bag, has a trainer who knows how to win the Derby and is in brilliant form with his horses this year.

With a DI of 1.75 he'd be seen as a likely non-stayer if he hadn't won the Dante, but he did win the Dante and deserves to be seen as a likely stayer and winner but not one to bet the house on at his price.

His Dam Fleche D'or DI 1.67 was not raced, her only other runner is the filly Eastern Belle DI 1.59 who was a decent sort that won a listed race at 10f and never ran over further than 10f and whose run petered out in a 10f GP1 . Her sire Champs Elysees is more of a stamina influence than Cape Cross and on that evidence Golden Horn could have problems staying.

Fleche D'or's Dam is the Nureyev mare Nuryana DI 2.29 who produced the GP1 miler Rebecca Sharp, Nuryana's Dam is by habitat another speed influence.

The form horse, but the pedigree gives little encouragement.