Reunification Question

demfad

Berserker wrote: »

David Cameron has better things to do than grant independence referenda to the Scots ad nauseam. You can throw all the hypothetical scenarios you can think of around but that is the reality of the situation. Cameron will drip feed his promises to the Scots over the course of the next few years, which will keep them on side. The next PM, which will be another Tory when you look at the competition as of now, may well have to deal with this issue again but any notions of a referendum on the matter are purely theoretical until that point.

Charming language btw!

You are living in cloud cuckoo land. The reality of the situation? The Scots are so "on side" now that over 95% of Scottish Westminster seats are held by the Scottish Nationalist Party.

Fratton Fred

demfad wrote: »

You are living in cloud cuckoo land. The reality of the situation? The Scots are so "on side" now that over 95% of Scottish Westminster seats are held by the Scottish Nationalist Party.

Thanks to the first past the post system. They still received less than 50% of the vote.

But hey, maybe they should just keep holding referendums until the people give the correct answer?

demfad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Thanks to the first past the post system. They still received less than 50% of the vote.

But hey, maybe they should just keep holding referendums until the people give the correct answer?

Not at all.

But they should hold a referendum if the situation changes significantly. Obviously, there would be a massive change to Scotland's situation were England to vote the UK out of Europe. Scotland would have every right to demand an independence referendum in this scenario. Don't you agree?

Edit: I see the SNP share of the vote in the recent election was 50%. This is clearly "not less than 50%" as you mislead us to believe. That's usually enough for an overall majority in a PR system.

eire4

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Thanks to the first past the post system. They still received less than 50% of the vote.

But hey, maybe they should just keep holding referendums until the people give the correct answer?

Ahh right so when the election results don't go the way you want them to then you dismiss them as a flawed system. Now was the British election system flawed in the previous general election when the Scottish Nationalists only won 6 out of Scotlands 59 seats or did it only become flawed when they won 56 last spring. Or maybe the flaw is in the increase in SNP membership by over 400% since last years referendum. Or maybe its those flawed polls which now show support for Scottish independence over 50%.
The Scottish nationalists did in fact get 50% of the Scottish vote with turnout at 71% in Scotland as opposed to the overall turnout of 66%. In countries using a PR system 50% is usually enough to secure an overall majority. But regardles given Labour's vote was 24% in second place it was clearly a masive swing in favour of the Scottish Nationalists.

Godge

eire4 wrote: »

Ahh right so when the election results don't go the way you want them to then you dismiss them as a flawed system. Now was the British election system flawed in the previous general election when the Scottish Nationalists only won 6 out of Scotlands 59 seats or did it only become flawed when they won 56 last spring. Or maybe the flaw is in the increase in SNP membership by over 400% since last years referendum. Or maybe its those flawed polls which now show support for Scottish independence over 50%.
The Scottish nationalists did in fact get 50% of the Scottish vote with turnout at 71% in Scotland as opposed to the overall turnout of 66%. In countries using a PR system 50% is usually enough to secure an overall majority. But regardles given Labour's vote was 24% in second place it was clearly a masive swing in favour of the Scottish Nationalists.

It is a flawed indicator of support for Scottish independence, that is all.

eire4

Godge wrote: »

It is a flawed indicator of support for Scottish independence, that is all.

So was the system flawed when previously the SNP only won 6 out of 59 seats or did it only become flawed when they garnered 50% of the vote and 56 of the seats?
Or maybe the current polls showing over 50% support for Scottish independence are flawed? Or maybe the over 400% surge in SNP membership is flawed as well?


Or more likely is that since the independence referendum a year ago support for Scottish independence has grown. But you just do not like that so you dismiss the clear evidence that shows support growing for Scottish independence.

Crooked Jack

Berserker wrote: »

Cameron will drip feed his promises to the Scots over the course of the next few years, which will keep them on side.

How can you not see that this is exactly what i mean. It is exactly this attitude from cameron and the tories that will fuel demand in scotland for a second referendum

Fratton Fred

eire4 wrote: »

Ahh right so when the election results don't go the way you want them to then you dismiss them as a flawed system. Now was the British election system flawed in the previous general election when the Scottish Nationalists only won 6 out of Scotlands 59 seats or did it only become flawed when they won 56 last spring. Or maybe the flaw is in the increase in SNP membership by over 400% since last years referendum. Or maybe its those flawed polls which now show support for Scottish independence over 50%.
The Scottish nationalists did in fact get 50% of the Scottish vote with turnout at 71% in Scotland as opposed to the overall turnout of 66%. In countries using a PR system 50% is usually enough to secure an overall majority. But regardles given Labour's vote was 24% in second place it was clearly a masive swing in favour of the Scottish Nationalists.

I'm not dismissing them, I'm just saying they are misleading.

end of the road

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I'm not dismissing them, I'm just saying they are misleading.

how

demfad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I'm not dismissing them, I'm just saying they are misleading.

They are not misleading in the context for which they were used here. I cited the Scottish election results in response to another poster claiming that Cameron would keep the Scots "on side" by drip feeding some of the promises he made pre-election. This promise was made by the three British Parties pre-referendum with a time-line.

As well as signifying a massively significant victory for the SNP, The election result betrays the collapse of the three British parties who made the bogus promises (lied) to Scotland.

If the UK pulls out of Europe and another referendum is held, there will be 3 key differences with the last one:

1.A yes vote will also be a vote to stay in the EU.
2.The no side will not be able to make promises (lies wont be believed this time, see election results)
3.The no sides threats wont be believed

How do you honestly see this referendum going?

P.S

Obviously the threat to send in the army wont work as well as it did in 1707.

Fratton Fred

A parliamentary election has a different electorate for starters, so there may not have been the huge swing towards independence you are deducing (as much as you may wish it to be true).

The Scots are quite clearly kissed off with the three main parties, that isn't the same as wanting independence.

Why you chose to add your last point, I'm not sure. It looks like you are just trying to be overly dramatic.

eire4

Fratton Fred wrote: »

A parliamentary election has a different electorate for starters, so there may not have been the huge swing towards independence you are deducing (as much as you may wish it to be true).

The Scots are quite clearly kissed off with the three main parties, that isn't the same as wanting independence.

Why you chose to add your last point, I'm not sure. It looks like you are just trying to be overly dramatic.

That does not address the latest polls showing a majority in favour of Scottish independence now which was not the case previously. It does not address the fact that membership of the SNP has increased by over 400% in the year since the referendum. It also fails to address the fact that the SNP went from only 6 out of 59 seats in Scotland to winning 56. Are you seriously trying to claim that that kind of massive switch in seats is nothing to do with an increase in support for Scottish independence. When combined with the other trends that is not very creditable.

Fratton Fred

eire4 wrote: »

That does not address the latest polls showing a majority in favour of Scottish independence now which was not the case previously. It does not address the fact that membership of the SNP has increased by over 400% in the year since the referendum. It also fails to address the fact that the SNP went from only 6 out of 59 seats in Scotland to winning 56. Are you seriously trying to claim that that kind of massive switch in seats is nothing to do with an increase in support for Scottish independence. When combined with the other trends that is not very creditable.

No, I'm just saying you can't make presumptions

The simple fact is, twelve months ago a referendum was held which showed that 55% of those eligible to vote, wanted to remain in the Union.

What has changed in the last twelve months that means another referendum should be held?

Should the UK go to the expense of holding a referendum every six months, just in case?

eire4

Fratton Fred wrote: »

No, I'm just saying you can't make presumptions

The simple fact is, twelve months ago a referendum was held which showed that 55% of those eligible to vote, wanted to remain in the Union.

What has changed in the last twelve months that means another referendum should be held?

Should the UK go to the expense of holding a referendum every six months, just in case?

I am not making persumptions at all. I am simply stated the facts that support for independence has grown in the year since the vote. You just do not like this growth in support for Scottish independence so you dismiss the growth. Yes the simply fact is that a year ago 55% voted to remain in the union. Unilke you I can acknowledge that fact even though its not one I enjoy. The facts are that since then rather then being the end of the question it has proved to be just a catalyst for the continued growth in support for indpendence within Scotland.


What has changed in the past 12 months? Well as I have already stated the SNP won a massive 56 seats out of 59 and 50% of the vote at the last election. Their membership has increased by over 400%. The polls are now showing support for indpendence has grown to the point it is now the majority.


No idea why your bringing up elections every 6 months. Nobody has ever suggested that. In any case we are already pretty much exactly a year on from the last one. However if as expected the SNP does well and wins another majority in the Scottish elections next year and the British vote to leave the EU in 2017 then I can easily see another referendum coming soon after that.

Fratton Fred

The referendum was a catalyst, of course. It awakened a lot of people's political consciousness. Just as here, everyone is now incredibly "gay friendly" after the SSM referendum.

I would be very surprised if the UK votes to leave the eu, people moan about it, but most people know membership is important to the country's economy. If that is the case, then your point is mute.

You might want to read this on the "massive" yes swing http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2015/09/weekend-polls-fail-to-replicate-summer-surge-for-independence/

eire4

Fratton Fred wrote: »

The referendum was a catalyst, of course. It awakened a lot of people's political consciousness. Just as here, everyone is now incredibly "gay friendly" after the SSM referendum.

I would be very surprised if the UK votes to leave the eu, people moan about it, but most people know membership is important to the country's economy. If that is the case, then your point is mute.

You might want to read this on the "massive" yes swing http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2015/09/weekend-polls-fail-to-replicate-summer-surge-for-independence/

I tend to think the EU membership vote will not see Britain leave the EU. However that is far from a certain result of the referendum as the most recent polls are now showing support for leaving the EU in the majority.

demfad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

The referendum was a catalyst, of course. It awakened a lot of people's political consciousness. Just as here, everyone is now incredibly "gay friendly" after the SSM referendum.

I think, here, everyone is more understanding and therefore tolerant to difference now as a direct result of the national discussion surrounding the referendum. That's it's power, and it has been a powerful change. The Scottish referendum also had power but mainly because the 'Yes' side forced a national debate. The establishment and the established media did not want any political conciousness to develop. The referendum exposed the true lack of democracy and freedom of expression/views in the UK. The media was used as a tool to suppress the debate.

And that was the function of the first referendum. To establish a fair open debate. To make significant progress before the second.

I would be very surprised if the UK votes to leave the eu, people moan about it, but most people know membership is important to the country's economy. If that is the case, then your point is mute.

And if that is not the case then Scotland is gone. Agreed?

The fact that the British established parties all lied to Scotland will not be forgotten before the next referendum. Better for the "No" campaign that they remain mute next time.

You might want to read this on the "massive" yes swing http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2015/09/weekend-polls-fail-to-replicate-summer-surge-for-independence/

Who claimed a "massive" yes swing?
The YES machine is quite clearly a different beast now. Interesting that these polls didn't poll "devo max"? You see if Cameron keeps doing what he does best, "devo max" cant be carrotted next time.


A relatively weak Pro independence machine with a minority SNP, with no media backing managed 45%.

Next time you will have a very strong YES machine, with Media intact and almost all of the NO 'get out of jail' cards blown on the last referendum.

There will be a Scexit.

Fratton Fred

demfad wrote: »

There will be a Scexit.

And this excites you because?

end of the road

Fratton Fred wrote: »

And this excites you because?

scotland will be free and independant once again.

Fratton Fred

end of the road wrote: »

scotland will be free and independant once again.

Free from what?

demfad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

And this excites you because?

It doesnt excite me. It is just the best position for Scots to take in the face of chronic English selfish governance. Scotland wont get real local democracy in the UK. That is clear. The referendum exposed real flaws in the machinations of the entire UK. The British governmnet willfully have chosen to ignore this.

The Scots are a neighbouring nation. So are England. I wish them both well. I cant wish England well at the expense of Scotland.

end of the road

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Free from what?

british rule

Fratton Fred

end of the road wrote: »

british rule

Seriously?

Jamsiek

end of the road wrote: »

british rule

They had their chance and they made their decision to stay

Fratton Fred

demfad wrote: »

It doesnt excite me. It is just the best position for Scots to take in the face of chronic English selfish governance. Scotland wont get real local democracy in the UK. That is clear. The referendum exposed real flaws in the machinations of the entire UK. The British governmnet willfully have chosen to ignore this.

The Scots are a neighbouring nation. So are England. I wish them both well. I cant wish England well at the expense of Scotland.

You've not heard of the West Lothian question?

end of the road

Jamsiek wrote: »

They had their chance and they made their decision to stay

they will get another chance and will decide to go. no lies will work this time

Jamsiek

end of the road wrote: »

they will get another chance and will decide to go. no lies will work this time

I don't doubt that but it's unlikely in the short term

eire4

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Free from what?

Free from having a goverment that does not reflect the views and values of the Majority of Scots.

Fratton Fred

eire4 wrote: »

Free from having a goverment that does not reflect the views and values of the Majority of Scots.

So they were free when Labour were in power, but now there is a Tory government, they aren't?

eire4

Fratton Fred wrote: »

So they were free when Labour were in power, but now there is a Tory government, they aren't?

No the trend with the Labour party has very much been away from the views, values and outlooks that the majority of Scots support as well. The increasing divergence in the general outlook on life and society has been a factor in the move toward Scottish indpendence.