Atlantic Hurricane Season 2015

Darwin

The 12z ECMWF has it fizzling out altogether off the coast of Portugal while the GFS is hanging on to it's story of Joaquin stalling over Ireland.

pauldry

I reckon this wont go over Ireland just bring a breezy weekend with some rain. Drier next week

Hooter23

The latest gfs model has it tracking close to the west coast not very strong but still windy in the west Saturday evening...tracking has changed so much with this and will probably be different again by morning we shall see...

FWVT

The Azores should get some strong winds Friday, after that it's anyone's guess!

https://irishweatheronline.wordpress.com/2015/10/06/will-we-get-joaquins-remnants/

Meteorite58

The jet looks very fragmented and weak but possibly just enough to steer Ex Joaquin towards the direction of Spain ?

Totofan99

On the 9pm weather, Evelyn forecast the low splitting into two lows, with one going south of us and one going north.

rayfitzharris

Ha, she also had an interesting way of pronouncing Joaquín sounded like joehackwhim lol

Iancar29

Totofan99 wrote: »

On the 9pm weather, Evelyn forecast the low splitting into two lows, with one going south of us and one going north.

No she showed the to possible outcomes , not two separate lows. She notes that the forecast is still changing .


We'll have a full model run through when the 6z gfs rolls out ...

All_in_Flynn

Hi folks,

I'm travelling by ferry on Saturday morning to Wales for the World Cup game. Should I be worried this might be cancelled with the impending weather?

maquiladora

A calm, mild weekend. High pressure dominating and the ex-hurricane hundreds of miles south as a weakened low.

RobertKK

It should be said the UK met were being very cautious too and were saying on BBC news that it could go either north or south due to the divided jet stream.

Today Met Eireann talking about a pleasant weekend and mild, so guess it goes north.

maquiladora

RobertKK wrote: »

It should be said the UK met were being very cautious too and were saying on BBC news that it could go either north or south due to the divided jet stream.

Today Met Eireann talking about a pleasant weekend and mild, so guess it goes north.

South.

Totofan99

Iancar29 wrote: »

No she showed the to possible outcomes , not two separate lows. She notes that the forecast is still changing .


We'll have a full model run through when the 6z gfs rolls out ...

That's not what I saw. She definitely had it splitting into two lows. I've never seen Met Éireann showing different outcomes on their forecasts.

Storm 10

Totofan99 wrote: »

That's not what I saw. She definitely had it splitting into two lows. I've never seen Met Éireann showing different outcomes on their forecasts.

Agree with you on that she showed two clearly marked lows as the ex hurricane split, one moving North and one South, I have just watched it back on RTE Player, link below, the adds are a killer though.


http://www.rte.ie/player/ie/show/nine-news-30003250/10476269/

Vinculus

I live on the north west coast of Spain and it appears it could be coming our way. This is worrying. We got battered in the storms of 2013/14, It would be a nightmare to have to go through that again.

maquiladora

Vinculus wrote: »

I live on the north west coast of Spain and it appears it could be coming our way. This is worrying. We got battered in the storms of 2013/14, It would be a nightmare to have to go through that again.

Nothing to worry about. It will just be a weak area of low pressure by then. Rain and a breeze.

B17G

Looks like Hurricane Patricia will come ashore on Mexico's western coast sometime on Friday evening. May have sustained winds of 125 mph at this point.

B17G

Big upgrade in expected wind speeds according to the latest discussion. Winds reaching 155 mph tomorrow.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/222034.shtml?

Alexis Sanchez

Texas has got a lot of drought relief this year because of El Niño. They reckon this hurricane will contribute to the flood threat: http://www.wunderground.com/news/southern-plains-flood-threat-texas-6-things-to-know

maquiladora

B17G wrote: »

Big upgrade in expected wind speeds according to the latest discussion. Winds reaching 155 mph tomorrow.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/222034.shtml?

GFDL has it down at 934mb and just below Cat 5 intensity at the moment of landfall. Hope everyone on the coast in that area gets out.

B17G

Olaf on the left, moving north, east of the Hawaiian island chain. Currently winds are 110mph. Patricia winding itself up over on the right.

maquiladora

Holy mother! :eek::eek::eek:

12:30 AM CDT Fri Oct 23
Location: 16.5°N 105.3°W
Moving: NNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 892 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph

The purpose of this special advisory is to update for a significant
increase in the intensity of the hurricane. Reports from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that Patricia has intensified at an
incredible rate since yesterday. The plane measured peak 700-mb
flight level winds of 179 kt in the northeastern eyewall, and this
may be an unprecedented value for a tropical cyclone. Using the 90
percent adjustment value to convert this to a surface wind speed
yields an intensity estimate of 160 kt, which is tied with eastern
north Pacific Hurricane Linda of 1997 for the strongest on record.
A dropsonde released into the eye measured a sea-level pressure of
894 mb with 25 kt of wind. Adjusting this pressure for the surface
winds (i.e. the drop did not land into the actual center of the eye)
gives an estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb, which breaks
the record for the lowest pressure of an east Pacific hurricane.
Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today due to eyewall
replacements, but Patricia should maintain category 5 status through
landfall this afternoon or evening.

maquiladora

Absolutely incredible. Astonishing.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 6:21Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Storm Number & Year: 20 in 2015
Storm Name: Patricia (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 6:01:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°28'N 105°25'W (16.4667N 105.4167W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,134m (7,001ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 182kts (~ 209.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the SE (128°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 221° at 180kts (From the SW at ~ 207.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the SE (126°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 890mb (26.28 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,077m (10,095ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 27°C (81°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,913m (9,557ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 7 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Kalyke

I think Patricia deserves a thread of her own!!!!:eek::eek:

maquiladora

Latest pressure : 880mb. A new record for the Western hemisphere.

maquiladora

4:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 23
Location: 17.0°N 105.5°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 880 mb
Max sustained: 200 mph

A monster...stronger than anything ever recorded in the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific. Unfortunately recon had to depart but the pressure was still falling and windspeed increasing on every pass before the mission had to end. So it's very likely that pressure is now actually lower than 880. It may be close to Typhoon Tip's all time record of 870 but we'll never know as the next recon flight won't be there until 6pm and it will surely have passed peak intensity by then.
The sustained winds of 200 mph is a new world record and it's likely that it's even higher than that now but again no recon at this time so it stays at 200.

Wanderer78

maquiladora wrote: »

A monster...

must be pretty damn scary to fly through these things

maquiladora

Wanderer78 wrote: »

must be pretty damn scary to fly through these things

Hope they get a bonus. They got a special mention in the last forecast discussion.

We would like to acknowledge deeply the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
for their observations establishing Patricia as a record-breaking
hurricane. Clearly, without their data, we would never have known
just how strong a tropical cyclone it was.

WheatenBriar

BBC forecasters expect max sustained at 225mph on landfall, thats MPH not kph :eek:

Wanderer78

WheatenBriar wrote: »

BBC forecasters expect max sustained at 225mph on landfall, thats MPH not kph :eek:

holy mother of divine god. get out of the way of this one