Atlantic Hurricane Season 2015

maquiladora

Fred is forecast to reach hurricane strength in the vicinity of the Cape Verde Islands. This is very rare. Only 2 storms in the records dating back to 1850 have done this. One of them being Debbie in 1961 which had significant impacts here in Ireland as many of you will know.

Iancar29

Was only thinking myself Maq that i've never seen a TS organise so early ! Interesting stuff there!

Meteorite58

That's certainly one to watch Maquiladora, have to keep an eye will it take the same path as Debbie. I wonder what were the Atlantic sea temperatures like that year ( must check it out ) .

Account of Debbie here on Met.ie

http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/Sep1961_hurricane-Debbie.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Debbie_(1961)

Meteorite58

Fred predicted to be quite slow moving, more time over warm waters to grow in strength ?



Intersting too with the potential of an Azores high building around Mon 5th onwards , could that keep the storm tracking more south if it reached this far.



The present jet charts around the 10th-11th would give the helping hand to steer it into these shores, as always a long long way off .

Darwin

Weather.com predicting it to weaken considerably by Friday (45 mph mean wind speeds) as it reaches cooler waters on it's current westerly track. An interesting one to watch for sure!

maquiladora

Fred is forecast to start weakening after a couple of days due to cooler waters and increasing wind shear. He'll probably peak as a Cat 1 hurricane within the next 36 hours or so. So no repeat of Debbie is on the cards here.

Just for fun, the weak little 1008 low off the southwest coast here is actually the remains of Fred at 384 hours on the 12Z GFS.

Iancar29

Saw this chart going around on twitter...
GEOS-5 global model (cousin of GFS) generates a solar system of typhoons in the West Pac next week.

Meteorite58

Tropical Storm Fred had decreased to a depression but forecast to strengthen again to a Tropical Storm, could be a few twists and turns yet, probably stay north of the Canairies before it weakens again, if it weakens, wonder where it will end up ?




Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion

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000
WTNT41 KNHC 051444
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015

Fred has been decapitated again by strong westerly wind shear.
However, the low-level circulation continues to be vigorous. The
initial intensity remains at 35 kt, based on satellite estimates and
continuity. I will not speculate any more about the convection
redeveloping or not. The NHC forecast calls for little change in
intensity during the next 36 hours. If resilient Fred survives the
next day or so, there is a chance of slight re-intensification as
indicated by the SHIPS/GFS and SHIPS/ECMWF intensity guidance.

Fred is about to reach a break in the subtropical ridge where the
steering currents are weaker, and is now moving toward the west-
northwest at about 7 kt. A turn to the northwest and north should
begin later today, and by Sunday night, Fred should recurve as it
becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow. The NHC
forecast follows the trend of all the models, but is closer to the
GFS and the ECMWF solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 23.4N 41.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 23.9N 42.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 25.5N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 27.5N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 29.5N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 31.5N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 33.0N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 33.0N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

maquiladora

TD7 will probably soon becoming Grace. Heading westward but strong sheer is forecast in the days ahead so its not looking likely that it will survive a trip over the ocean.

hatrickpatrick

Invest 92-L currently drifting northward in the central atlantic with a 40% chance of developing into a subtropical cyclone. The GFDL model shows it potentially making a direct landfall in Ireland - anyone know how reliable this particular model is?

maquiladora

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Invest 92-L currently drifting northward in the central atlantic with a 40% chance of developing into a subtropical cyclone. The GFDL model shows it potentially making a direct landfall in Ireland - anyone know how reliable this particular model is?

It's the HWRF which shows a track in the direction of Ireland on that graphic. But it's just showing a weak 1000mb depression at that stage.

hatrickpatrick

maquiladora wrote: »

It's the HWRF which shows a track in the direction of Ireland on that graphic. But it's just showing a weak 1000mb depression at that stage.

Graph's been updated since I posted it, they cycle which models they display every few hours.

To be honest, I'm not so sure about that system developing at all anymore, apparently it's on its way to being absorbed by an extratropical cyclone unless it can fire up some thunderstorms very soon, and anything it pulls together is being sheared before it gets started right now.

El nino, eh?

hatrickpatrick

...aaaaaaaaaand I'm proven wrong mere hours after that remark. Tropical Depression Eight is born.

maquiladora

That Invest is now TD8, forecast to become Henri soon.

For what it's worth, the Canadian model does show it's remains winding up here.



Navy model does something similar too.



But unless we see ECM/GFS showing the same then I wouldn't put much stock in those models.

maquiladora

We're up to J now. Tropical Storm JOAQUIN.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5-daynl#contents

maquiladora

Models are now showing JOAQUIN possibly ramping up to a major hurricane near the central Bahamas in a couple of days and then swinging up to hit the US east coast around Virginia/Maryland on Sunday. Could be a big news story in a couple of days but it's too early to say yet.

maquiladora

There's a good chance you'll be hearing a lot about this storm this weekend (unless the ECM is right, it sends it out to sea).

RobertKK

Currently Joaquin is a Cat 1 hurricane.

Iancar29

Have sent an email to family in NJ as they are pretty prone to flooding in the NJ countryside. AccuWeather seem to prefer the more westerly GFS solutions than the ECM atm.

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/90586624001/joaquin-and-flooding-rains-maj

The wind looks to be in play to bring an increasing flood threat to coastal areas.

Lets see what the 12z comes out with.

hatrickpatrick

Category 2 and rising. Forecast to hit Cat 3 by Friday.

maquiladora

Cat 3 now.

Min pressure: 948 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph

0Z ECM is still sticking with sending it out to sea. The other 0Z models :

maquiladora

06Z models shifting towards the ECM.

Rikand

It keeps working it's way slightly south

https://mobile.twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/649228381662261248/video/1

With that in mind, is there credence to it being picked up by the mid ocean trough and just being fast tracked out of there and straight towards us ?

https://mobile.twitter.com/pppapin/status/649303403638730752/photo/1

maquiladora

06Z GFS is further east, says offshore from the US east coast. Looking more and more likely that the ECM will be correct with this going out to sea.

Iancar29

Woah... if the ECM gets this one right, there will be some big cheers in Reading thats for sure!

maquiladora

Iancar29 wrote: »

Woah... if the ECM gets this one right, there will be some big cheers in Reading thats for sure!

This says it all.

hatrickpatrick

Pretty amazing for the ECM to be so spectacularly contrary to the other models and still apparently get it right.

On the other hand, given how abruptly the models have all switched to a totally different track compared with what they forecasted yesterday, it could easily change again long before that.

maquiladora

12Z GFS and UKMO track it out to sea. Very clear trend now.

Meteorite58

Bahama's are in for it , Cat 4 Hurricane now


Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory

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000
WTNT31 KNHC 011753
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
200 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015

...JOAQUIN BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...STORM
SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

---

LOCATION...23.0N 74.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES

Meteorite58

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/432724657001/hurricane-joaquin-devastates-the-bahamas?autoStart=true&utm_source=accuweather&utm_medium=accuweather&utm_campaign=awx_videowal_lin#.Vg2-6aM2iq4.link